Weekend Estimates by Klady Insurge
It lightens one’s heart to see A Separation and Extremely Incredibly with almost identical grosses and per-screens this weekend. True, both are just on 6 screens and neither is a world beater, financially. But the Iranian drama vs the Hanks/Bullock Oscar bait film… a reminder that in some places, on some numbers, critics still have the power to support a film and give it a boost.
It’s only fair to note that the powerhouse in exclusive release this weekend was The Iron Lady, which is not so beloved to critics, but did more than double the per screen of either of the other movies on just 5 screens.
This puts me in the mind of Oscar, so let’s take a look at where the contenders now are at the box office…
As you can see, I have split the group into films I think have a serious chance of being Best Picture nominated at this point… and those that don’t. The bolded grosses are films that are either out of theaters or on so few screens that nothing is really going to change in the numbers.
As you can plainly see. the frontrunner, The Artist, is at the very bottom of the Top Contenders list. Harvey Weinstein has a month or so to get that number to at least $50 million or the Rule of Failure will kick in and some other film will win. Yes, The Hurt Locker happened… but that was a true freak in Academy history and there is no Avatar to play David versus.
On the high side of the chart, you can see that War Horse, even without a push from Globes wins or Oscar nominations, is likely to pass Moneyball before the final Oscar vote. With Dragon Tattoo as a bit of a BP longshot these days, That will make the film the #2 on the list. And in the last 20 years of Oscar that had 5 nominees, only ONE Best Picture was not #1 or #2 at the domestic box office amongst the nominees. That was American Beauty, which was #3.
In the Ten Nominee world, we’ve had a #8 and a #4 win so far. But The King’s Speech was close to $100 million domestic when voting closed last year and went on to do $135m domestic. I don’t think it’s a 1-2 world in a 10 nominee universe. But you have to be seen as a hit… again, Hurt Locker being a happy freak.
Hugo will end up passing Midnight in Paris domestically. But the latter is seen as the hit and the former seen as a financial miss. The Help and Moneyball are also seen as overperformers.
This is not a top-of-mind issue for Academy members. But don’t underestimate the significance of the perception of success.
Like I said, Harvey needs to hit the gas soon or incredibly hard once nominations come out, or he’s going to get left behind, no matter how much Academy members love his film.
OHHHH… and the stupid horror movie…
Great marketing by Paramount. Not cheap marketing, but excellent marketing. Massive profits.
Mission:Impossible – Ghost Protocol is chugging along because it’s quite good… for a Mission:Impossible movie. Great start of a live-action career for Brad Bird. I guess he was right to turn down The Golden Compass all those years ago, waiting to find the right vehicle.
And no shit for Sherlock 2, as that film, once written off, could conceivably get to $200m domestic. Also now looking even more like it will hit a big landmark, Dragon Tattoo seems to be finding a broader audience as the new product slows to a crawl and people are looking for a film to watch after they’ve seen M:I4.
And the doom and gloomers are still out there… our own Len Klady wrote this morning, “Already industry cheerleaders are proclaiming a reversal of fortunes but it could be as easily an anomaly. It could all change (or not) with next weekend’s bow of Contraband. Regardless the general mood among insiders is tetchy.”
As I keep writing… it’s the movies, not some national mood. No honest journalist could look at the entirety of 2011, see that the ENTIRE down amount was reflected in Q1 2011, and continue to talk about a “slump” in the fall and holiday. Numbers are not about whether we a disappointed in our expectations. Numbers are about f-ing numbers. This weekend was up 27% from last year. Fine. Only an idiot would say that they now can reasonably project the box office for the rest of the year, much less that is will be up over 20% from last year because of this weekend.
The is almost no doubt that Q1 2012 will be up from Q1 2011. Last year’s first quarter was weak. But mostly, it suffered from an Avatar and Alice hangover, much as Q1 2005 suffered from a Passion of the Christ hangover.
The real question is how much the Star Wars 3D re-releases will earn… and Titanic 3D in Q2, for that matter. Underworld X, Chronicle, Ghost Rider 2, The Lorax, John Carter, The Hunger Games. These are the movies that will define the pre-summer portion of the year. And with luck, one or two surprise big movies to boot. Contraband? With due respect, bullshit. $25 million opening max. $80m domestic cap. No one should be shocked to see it beat by Beauty & The Beast 3D for the top of the chart next weekend. It’s still January, damn it.
So don’t expect me to be ringing the bells for a return to theatrical if the next few months are up 10%… or even 20%. No one is “coming abck to the cinema” because no one left. People come to the movies they want to see. And as The Devil Inside reminds us all… it doesn’t matter whether what they get when they arrive is any good. It’s about wanna see, not really liked.
No lie, when I saw what The Devil Inside box office weekend estimates were I chuckled to myself that some industry “professional” would say the slump is over…and then I go to Nikki’s site. Oy.
For Nikki, The Slump comes and goes based on which one of her studio handlers is doing well or poorly at the box office.
The Devil Inside’s trailer was great. Kudos to the marketing team for doing exactly what they were paid to do, sell the fuck out of a film.
I’m looking down the road at another IMO effective trailer that could really appeal to the campus set and could be another potential one week wonder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGcwSDNFcsU
With the exception of the last 30seconds that basically gives away the root cause of their strange powers, the trailer absolutely peaked my interest.
These found footage and self filmed focused flicks are the Blair Witch children that rake in the quick cash, and I think, with another financial success like Devil Inside, user backlash be dammed, we have a lot more of these to look forward to.
Wasn’t there another demonic possession movie slated to open this weekend? (From Lionsgate maybe?)
I wonder what might have happened if the other d/p movie hadn’t blinked and been pushed back to Labor Day weekend.
Guess Paramount is feeling mighty relieved that we’ll never know the answer to that question, lol.
I believe the other movie was just called The Possession and was pushed back to June.
For fuck’s sake is The Devil Inside’s opening depressing. What a godawful movie (no surprise considering the di Bonaventura production credit). I’d recommend people just watch The Last Exorcism on Netflix rather than spending money on TDI.
God, Box Office Mojo goes down on Sunday afternoon with alarming regularity. You’d think they’d pick a new hosting company already.
Honestly can’t believe WAR HORSE isn’t catching fire… I seriously thought that could be a THE HELP-level old-fashioned word-of-mouth hit with older audience that’d be playing to sold out, bawling matinees week after week, OR even a BENJAMIN BUTTON-style Christmas Day opener big deal-fast fader; It just doesn’t seem to be catching fire; I would’ve figured it for a TOTAL CROWD PLEASER. You just never know.
Is CARNAGE getting the worst, weirdest, most prolonged/lamest roll out of the season? In LA, it seems like that thing’s been out forEVER, but no one really cares about it, it’s dead in the water as an Oscar movie, and it’s already on to kind of second-run arthouses here (the Arclight kicked it loose WEEKS ago). It feels totally dead and done in limited… Yet they seem to add 2 or 3 theaters a week; Why? Who CARES anymore? No one is going to see it. Even I haven’t bothered, as it was dead-last (or tied w Blood and Honey) on my list of Oscar movies I could totally take a pass on.
IMDB still lists an August 31st release date for the Lionsgate demonic possession meller, Matthew.
But maybe they’ll decide to open it sooner thanks to the success of “DI.”
Oh, joy.
Speaking of the “worst, weirdest, most prolonged/lamest roll out of the season,” Sony Classics’ torturously staggered release of “Dangerous Method” just seems plain weird. But maybe they figure it’ll do better in arthouse venues semi-removed from the current crush of Oscar-y contenders vying for auds (and screen space) since they probably figure it’s (undeservedly) an awards season also-ran anyway.
And don’t even get me started on Searchlight and “The Descendants.”
That thing still remains stalled at 800-odd screens. And no, it still hasn’t opened near me; and neither has “Tinker, Tailor.” So much for those TV ads promising, “everywhere January 6th.”
Man, I saw ADM the same weekend I saw Hugo (around Thanksgiving), so somehow I figured that had already made the roll-out rounds… Wait, how does one’s (Ohio, I think?) city get THAT but not The Descendants?
Also UNREAL how little most of these have made in general– My Week With Marilyn has been released and re-released, expanded and dropped, rinse repeat SO many times I’d have figured it would’ve made more than 10 mil by now, since the older audiences seem to be liking it, and it’s pretty accessible compared to, say, Dangerous Method or Shame.
Again, just as a frequenter of movie blogs and Oscar blogs, it’s always amusing how those guys beat the drum for these movies to the tune of 100s of tweets and thousands of blog entry “Is it Descendants is it Artist, what about Rampart, oh noes Shame has a NC-17, is it Carnage…” (Wells is ESPECIALLY bad about trying to read the tea leaves on something he’s interested in via 700 threads about all these movies before he’s even SEEN THEM… or maybe Sasha Stone is even worse.)
But here it is January 8, and almost ALL of these have tanked, not rolled out, nobody cares, and The Devil Inside and a Beauty and the Beast rerelease are gonna wipe the floor with the niche stuff that’s been the talk of the critical town since Toronto.
Does Rampart have an actual release date or is it getting Frankie and Alice-d?
Lex, you hit on why The Devil Inside made so much money: the people weren’t interested in the movies out there and got something they wanted to see. Seriously, they wanted to see a shit horror film. What’s wrong with these people?
Also, with War Horse, why do I want to sit through a HORSE being put through a war? Seriously, why?
What, you don’t want to see Homer’s The Odyssey retold from a horse’s point of view?
Nice to see Tinker Tailor Soldier Poor-Man had the second highest per-screen in the top 20.
Hey Lex, I feel like you’re touching on a larger issue that I’ve sensed too — the end-of-year Oscar movies are becoming like a self-referential genre unto themselves — it’s as if releasing them and having people see them is becoming beside the point — it’s as if all these movies are screening in some kind of alternate universe. Iron Lady, when it was racking up awards and nominations before it had even played in a theater, seemed like the best example of this, though it seems to be having an OK release now — it’s as if it didn’t even matter if it played in a theater or not — it only existed as an awards vehicle.
Totally. It’s like their made JUST for Oscar buzz and to play to critics’ screening rooms, as they’re the talk of the town MONTHS before their actual afterthought of a theatrical release. Since I follow many of the “big” plugged-in bloggers, as a “regular schmo” it seems like I spend half the year listening to them toss around and bicker about these months-away movies they’ve all seen early– there’s almost no interest in whether or not the general public actually sees the movies or even GETS to see the movies…
This whole “Team Margaret” move I read about on Twitter and blogs could’ve been a nice push to get an underseen movie a BETTER RELEASE, but instead the main goal of “Team Margaret” seems to be… to get the insular community of critics some more “press screenings” and screener copies. All that energy they’ve put into TEAM MARGARET, but with no real interest in getting it playing at a proper LA theater even; It’s like the movies exist ONLY for the critics. And on the studios’ end, it’s doubly bad; They want the bad to get the FYC ads out there, but come on, two months into their releases, the companies have BARELY bothered to expand out The Artist or Carnage or Shame or any of that stuff. But to read Awards Daily you’d think these were the most pressing movies of our age.
“Rampart” does have release dates (finally) and screenings in place, at least in the top 25 markets.
WAR HORSE is beautiful, without question one of the best films of the year, and another brilliant achievement for Spielberg. I saw it in a packed house yesterday, and it played great, with nary a dry eye in the house when the lights came up. It’s a big hearted, emotional epic that put me through the ringer in a way the movies only rarely do, and it features amazing visual set pieces with echos of Lean and Ford. I loved it.
And the French Girl was a little future LOOK AT HER.
Glad SOMEBODY else liked it. Can’t believe how pissy most people are being about it. I think it’s better than SCHINDLER’S LIST or RAIDERS.
I would rank it alongside JAWS, CLOSE ENCOUNTERS, RAIDERS, E.T., SCHINDLER’S LIST, PRIVATE RYAN, A.I., MUNICH, and maybe MINORITY REPORT (which rocks, but I need to re-watch it again) as one of his masterpieces.
Who am I kidding, the French Girl was a current Look at Her. Most beautiful female ever to appear in a Spielberg movie? Not that there’s much competition, outside of the two hot chicks in Munich.
Movieman, I remember reading awhile back that THE DESCENDANTS would expand fully wide in the middle of January. I was lucky that my non-major market got it around the beginning of December, apparently. I was pretty tiffed that TINKER TAILOR expanded Friday and it didn’t reach me. Yes, the “playing everywhere” ads are irritating when they get your hopes up.
We have two Landmark Theaters (five screens total) here in Milwaukee. Tinker Tailor finally started on Friday. Carnage starts this coming Friday. Still waiting for Shame and A Dangerous Method. Meanwhile The Artist has been playing on two screens for a month and Marilyn has been playing for about the same length of time.
SHERLOCK actually might hit $500 million worldwide if it stays on fire internationally.
Paramount looks like it’ll have four $500 million worldwide grossers in 2011 with PUSS and MI4 added to TRANNIES and and PANDA. Yeah 3 of those films they were just distributing, but still…
JKill- At this point, I’m guessing “The Descendants” won’t hit make it here until post-Oscar nods. (If Oscar prognosticators are correct and “TTSS” gets shut out, it may never make it to my podunk town.) Fortunately I’ve already seen both movies.
But still.
Makes me think I’m living in even more of a cultural backwater than I am.
“A Dangerous Method” hasn’t even hit Cleveland–the “biggest” city near me (90 minutes away), and the place where I have to go for press screenings and/or promos–yet. Of course, “The Artist,” “Shame” and “Carnage” haven’t opened there yet either. (The latter two probably will never see the light of day in my home town. “The Artist” should hit sometime before the actual Oscar ceremony.)
Maybe I haven’t been paying close enough attention, but is there really a debate raging about whether “War Horse” is any good or not??
Fantastic movie–like you said, JKill, it’s one of Spielberg’s masterpieces, although I’d substitute “Catch Me if You Can” and “Minority Report” (which isn’t a “maybe” for me) for either/or “Munich” and “Schindler’s List,” both of which I thought were somewhat overrated–and the Lean/Ford comparisons are certainly apt. I’ve never understood why it didn’t automatically catapult to front-runner (Oscar) status once it began screening two months ago. Everything about it practically screams “Oscar-Tradition-of-Quality.” But in a good–no make that great–way.
Count me in with those who really, really enjoyed War Horse. It would be in my mythical top 10 of 2011. Total Spielberg feel-good stuff that played really well to the audience I saw it with the day after Christmas. I figured it’d be killing it too, but I don’t think anyone’s really aware of who it’s made for; from the marketing, you’d never know it was based off of a YA (or children’s? book, plus I think even general movie audiences can generally sense Oscar bait, and War Horse had that stink all over it.
Not trying to start a fight but WAR HORSE didn’t do much for me at all. I loved the look of it and the sprawling epic nature and I *liked* the movie well enough, but I’d consider it “Minor Spielberg.” For those proclaiming it’s masterpiece status, what makes you feel that way? Honestly asking.
I’m with Don on War Horse. In fact, I thought Tintin was the better Spielberg movie, very Indiana Jones-esque.
I love Wat Horse for what I feel it was… old fashioned, tearjerker done with all the tools of now. I am happy to writhe in schmaltz now and again… when it’s good schmaltz. And there is so much really magnificent work in this film.
Underage girl is beautiful, yes… and her grandfather is a great, great actor, even if he’s playing Heidi’s grandpa here a bit. Soldiers were terrific, I thought. The kid was a perfect GQ hero. Even Peter Mullan, Emily Watson, and David Thewlis… 3 GREAT actors playing in a movie from the 40s.
It’s nothing like Tree of Life, but the feeling was similar for me… like letting something beautiful and sometimes beyond intellect wash over me in a movie theater.
Haven’t seen War Horse yet but Tintin was absolutely brilliant. Just wonderful filmmaking. If War Horse is as good as you all say then I am just that much more in awe of Speilberg. It just shows that he is still the best working.
Got to say, I enjoyed Tintin, but felt that the writing was incomplete. I felt a distance between me and the story and characters–it just didn’t grab me. Perhaps the biggest issue for me is…what’s in it for Tintin? He gets involved in a quest for someone else’s treasure…he has no real emotional involvement in the story.
War Horse’s first 25 minutes are the kind of earnestness and schmaltz that grate on my nerves a bit and the last 15 minutes were the kind of schmaltz I really get into. The kid’s “duh…. horsie” look, yet another stereotype rich guy trying to put the poor former under his thumb, the horse is “too small, too young” to do what it needs to do but does it anyway, blah blah blah were a little annoying. And why is the small community always hanging out at THIS farm? And why does the best friend need to be a clone of Ron Weasley?
But the movie does get a LOT better and even PG-13 WWI is still pretty damn brutal. The last 15 minutes is the kind of thing people who love to slaughter Spielberg go on and on and on about, but it’s the kind of heart only people like Spielberg can deliver and make it work. And it’s nice to see John Williams being John Williams. I know his scoring style is kind of passé to most people, but he’s generally at his best when he’s being himself.
I think David’s argument is on the nose about War Horse. Yes, it’s schmaltz, but good schmaltz. It’s techicnically a brilliant film. The cinematography, design, the shots, the look, the costumes. All great stuff. I don’t know how IN THE HELL he did it. But Tom Hiddleston’s small speech about returning the horse to it’s owner had me (and EVERYONE in my theater) in tears. I would not put it among Spielberg’s best, but I think it’s one of his better works. Some of Spielberg’s best stuff, btw, such as Empire of the Sun and Catch me if You Can, are not truly liked until years later.
Spielberg, and Scorsese for Hugo, have been criticized for making the movie they clearly wanted to, but not the one’s FANS want. We always want gritty Scorsese, we always want SPR-Spielberg.
Tinker Tailor’s B.O. is a great story. I’m happy to hear mainstream audiences have dug it. Both my sisters’ saw it this weekend and loved it.
GB, what’s in it for Tin Tin? ADVENTURE and eventually helping someone who becomes his friend. That’s what Tin Tin is all about, and that’s why that movie is fantastic.
How wide is Iron Lady going on Friday? That’s an easy $10m 4-day weekend if they put it in 1,500+ theaters. Folks want to see Meryl, and there’ve been a lot of TV spots lately.
I agree WAR HORSE is high-end schmaltz but I just didn’t get into the characters. It did feel like a classic Lean or Ford epic. It reminded me of kids movies from the 1960’s as well. For some reason DARBY O’GILL kept popping into my head. Again, didn’t hate it. Just wasn’t as floored as I had hoped to be.
The scene with the two soldiers from opposing armies and their interaction with the horse was my best moment. Not Spielberg’s best, but damn good.
I think the very last scene in War Horse might be the most affecting thing I saw in a theater in 2011, even more so than anything in Tree of Life (which I also thought was a massive, staggering achievement in pure emotion being funneled through audio/visuals). But there was just something very big and “Old Hollywood” grand about those final moments in War Horse; I already thought it was the best looking film that Spielberg had done in years, but that final scene just cemented it–it was sublime and completely earned by the preceding 2 hours.
Yeah, for me WAR HORSE was a top to bottom powerhouse. I thought the cast was uniformly excellent. The visual grandeur was stunning. The screenplay was fascinatingly structured, and I loved how it was a series of set pieces tied around the horse instead of a more traditional story structure. It is a terribly effective, humane anti-war film. The score is stirring. The film is, for my money, instantly iconic and classic. The last half hour destroyed me in a good way; I couldn’t believe how expertly and effectively and elegantly the movie was hitting its notes. It’s a sad film, but more importantly, there’s so much kindness and heart on display. I have rarely cried from a film as hard and as much as I did during WAR HORSE. I think it’s tremendous.
I think what moved me the most about “War Horse,” JKill, were the various instances of kindness extended towards both the horse and the teen male protagonist–often by complete strangers–on their Candide-like journeys.
And the propulsive swelling of John Williams’ classically inflected orchestral score made sure that every one of those moments signified, and achieved maximum emotionally cathartic results.