Weekend Estimates by Flipped Top Klady
So… The Vow falls to second place… which doesn’t diminish its success a single bit. It will be Screen Gems first $100m domestic grosser. Also, interestingly, it may be the last Spyglass film to go out without a MGM logo.
Surging to the top of the chart – again, the slotting meaning almost nothing in any other context – is Denzel’s Safe House, now assured of hitting $100m domestically and with a shot at being Denzel’s #2 career grosser, over Remember The Titans‘ $116m, but not quite American Gangster‘s $130m.
Ghost Rider 2 opened to about half of what the first film did and will likely gross about half as well. In one of those moments when a supporting actor might have changed the dynamic, how big a difference did Eva Mendes make the first time around? Did this go from a franchise that women weren’t excited by, but would consider going to see with their men/boys, into a 100% geek sausage fest? Did anyone know from just watching the ads that The Woman From The American and Idris Elba were even in this film? Hmmm…
It wouldn’t be shocking if Journey 2 moved up another notch, passing Ghost Rider, for the 4-day, The opening is almost identical to the leggy first film in the series, which was one of the first 3D players (back when finding enough screens for 3D was a problem), though this one has a Lorax in the way. We’ll see.
This Means War is hard to read fairly. The height of Reese Witherspoon’s commercial career was a decade ago, with Sweet Home Alabama. In the decade since, only Legally Blonde 2, Walk The Line and Four Christmases opened better (amongst live action films). Sequel, Johnny Cash drama, team up with a red-hot Vince Vaughn. So… this really is a pretty good opening for her. Better than Water for Elephants or Just Like Heaven, much less flops like How Do You Know, Penelope (a supporting role in an aging pick-up), Vanity Fair, or Rendition. Chris Pine might add a little value… but little. The brilliant Tom Hardy remains recognizable and therefore unmarketable. So give Reese her due. She can still open a movie in the mid-teens. That’s not nothing.
On the other hand, they work with Simon Kinberg to get the next Mr & Mrs Smith… and obviously, this is not that. Closer to Knight & Day, another Fox misfire that wasn’t a complete disaster ($265m ww), but left a the appearance of a stench. My guess would be that this film ends up breaking even with international and tips Fox’s balance sheet not at all. So versus some expectations, perhaps a loser. But really, just another piece of business for Fox and an indicator that Reese can still open a movie… even one that limps out of the gate.
In The Oscar Race… The Artist is still on 808 screens and should hit $30m by the time it wins Best Picture next weekend. Presumably, that will lead to at least 2000 screens and a domestic total around $50 million. The Descendants will pass $75m today or tomorrow and is likely to pass War Horse to be the #2 grosser in this year’s Best Picture race. Traditionally, that would make it the likely film to win on Sunday, but I don’t think you can find anyone who still believes that’s going to happen. Hugo has made a bit of a comeback from the weak early grosses on the film, though $70m domestic seems to be the cap… which is still not what was hoped for this expensive period dramedy.
Interestingly, the only BP-nominated films not already over $100 million worldwide are The Tree of Life, The Artist, and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Of those three, only The Artist has a legitimate shot at getting there (it’s just over $60m now.) The Help is the top grosser both domestically and worldwide… the only film over $200m. But you’re #2 ww – as of now – is Midnight in Paris, with $148m. Then The Descendants with $132m, War Horse with $126m, Moneyball with $108m, and Hugo with $106m.
Studio Ghibli’s Disney partnership is making inroads…”Secret World” is opening to almost twice what “Ponyo” did two and a half years ago. It’s the best non-cartoon series opening ever for an anime movie, and should end up the 3rd highest anime grosser ever in the U.S. behind the first two Pokemons.
Please explain to me David, where they are going to find 2000 screens for the Artist? Seriously, point them out individually XD because your scenario is such a stretch in terms of what’s being released the two weeks following it’s inevitable win, that expecting any theatre to give screens up to that film is really a freaking stretch. Especially given there are huge releases next week as well.
Seriously, you are over-selling the Artist’s potential and under-selling Safe House’s earning potential. It could come close to being Denzel’s top grossing film because how rarely do films leap back into the #1 spot? This entire column is reaching SUMMER 09 levels of hi-larity.
I have to admit Partisan may have a point about a dearth of screens hindering Weinstein’s big post-Oscar expansion plans. There’s more leggy hits in current release than any late February/early March I can remember. Plus, a shitload of new releases are waiting in the wings (four next weekend alone).
But I still think $50-million domestic is doable for “The Artist” after it wins picture, director, actor, score, etc.
Even if it means that Harvey has to build the damn screens himself.
I know I’m dying to see The Artist and really regret missing it the one week it was in town.
Isn’t the Best Pic bump a thing of the past? $40 million tops for The Artist.
“It could come close to being Denzel’s top grossing film because how rarely do films leap back into the #1 spot”
Dumb, meaningless stat. A 40% hold is good… but it’s not some shock event. And the numbers for the other films are not dependent on Safe House or vice versa.
As for 2000 screens… there are plenty of screens. It’s an add of 1200, not 2000… and it’s not an epic challenge. The Lorax and Project X are not necessarily looking for the same screens. And maybe it’s just a jump to 1600. Don’t know. But the idea that it will be hard to get the screens is silly.
As far as Rob & The Bump… like every other stat, you have to look at the details. The evolution of The Oscar Bump has had a lot to do with squeezing all the juice out from the week before noms to the week of Oscar. In the case of The Artist, there is surely new juice in the orange that they haven’t tried to get out.
Obviously, the limited expansion so far suggests that TWC is worried that there isn’t as huge an opportunity in expansion as they’d like. But $20m in this situation is hardly an insane reach.
Last year, King’s Speech did $21m after winning,… and was already at $114m. Hurt Locker was in DVD. Slumdog did $42m after winning. No Country – in DVD – did $10m. The Departed and Crash were well played out. And before that (2004), Million Dollar Baby did $36m after winning.
So the people who like to spout off about post-win being played out, I guess, think $21m (or $135m) was not enough or that $42m for Slumdog – which is more analogous to The Artist situation isn’t enough.
I think $20 additional after a win is conservative and reasonable. If I said it would leap to $100m, I’d be calling me crazy too. But there is also the possibility that it will be $60m or more. $50m is completely doable. And if it’s only $45m… hey, shit happens. But it isn’t going to be $5m.
I was a little surprised to learn that “Hugo” is being rushed to dvd just two days after the Oscars.
Guess they must already know they’re not going to win Best Picture (duh), and probably figure there won’t be any discernible b.o. bump off a production design Oscar.
Still, that’s awfully quick (three months and change) for such a “big” movie, isn’t it?
But wasn’t that DVD release of Hugo set in place a long time ago — way before the Oscar nominations were announced? Don’t get me wrong: I love the movie, it’s my favorite of 2011, and I hope to see it a third time in 3D before it leaves theaters. But…
Interesting that despite losing screens, ARTIST was the only film to increase its percentage this weekend. The WOM is still there, but v-e-r-y s-l-o-w…
And a big F-U to Disney for reneging on the Japanese-track version of ARRIETTY. The Landmark website now shows the picture playing English-only.
OK, at the risk of sparking an argument, again I ask: What’s the big deal about having an English-language version of an animated feature? For one thing, it’s not like you’re not hearing the origianl actor’s voice because, hey, it’s a freakin’ cartoon figure, not an actor on screen. Even more important, though: I would think subtitles might prove even more disruptive in an animated feature than in a live-action feature.
Joe, when you go off like that, you sound like a cine-rube!
The Japanese voices are timed for the animation for starters – and even as a kid watching Speed Racer you could tell the voices didn’t match the limited lips. Plus, I find the Japanese actors are so much better at animated voices, given that anime is a respected and honored industry and always has been in Japan. I think Americans tend to overact because it’s just a toon.
For example, compare the dubbed version of AKIRA with the Japanese original. There’s almost no comparison to how superior the original track and character voices are.
David, I would not knock you for 5 million, but you are going on about post award bumps that occurred in different years without this many huge wide releases. It’s nothing but BANG, BANG, BANG for three weeks. There’s simply no room for The Artist to earn that amount of money, especially given that people have had a chance to see it for at least two months. There’s simply no room at the inn for this film.
That aside, yeah what Christian wrote is why Anime fanboys are their own silly thing. Seriously, there are quality voice dubs for countless properties. This isn’t the late 80s/early 90s where there were some horrible half assed English dubs. People take the time now with these things but Anime fanboys are still not always happy with them.
If Akira were put out now. The dub work on it would better because it’s gotten better. It’s gotten better because people respect it now, or at least respect the medium more than they ever have.
Stating that Americans treat it just like a TOON, ignores the countless Anime fans in this country. A country that has been rather beneficial for anime in general.
What JSP said. And, again, wouldn’t English subtitles be more of a problem than dubbing when you’re trying to fully appreciate the beauty of an animated feature?
I’m a fast reader, so subtitles never bother me, and I prefer them (partly for reasons christian gave). However, it’s understandable that most/all U.S. prints of animated films are dubbed. For even though there is adult interest in Japanese animation, if the story is not specifically ‘adult,’ the largest potential audience is children, whose reading skills are still developing.
I enjoy all the “ooohs” and “unnhs” that have to be inserted into English translations. It makes all those cute lil’ tykes onscreen sound like they’re constipated.
JSP… your earnestness is charming.
And you are just plain wrong.
JS, most anime fans prefer undubbed versions so there’s no insult to anime fans. And some of the US voicework is fine but often a beat off. And it can be over-manic where the Japanese are actually more subtle. Plus there’s a total charm to the original voices as a lot of modern dubs overdo dialogue substitution to their detriment. In other words, I don’t like dubbed versions of any foreign film. Toho excluded.
Christian, I have met both kinds of hardcore anime fans. I have met some people who love dubs but need them to be perfect. While I have met the other extreme that hates dubs. It’s a dichotomy thing, but I get not liking them.
When it comes to film, I prefer subtitles. When it comes to animation, I’d rather have a dub for some reason especially when it comes to anime in particular, because they use the same voices so often. I have become a fan of those voices actors.
David, you need to realize that I am not a fucking idiot and when people come over to “YOUR HOUSE”, maybe you shouldn’t shit all over them for disagreeing with you. When you realize that, maybe I will take this Summer 2009-esque BOX OFFICE post of your’s seriously.
cadavra, The Artist didn’t lose any screens this weekend.
My wife is taking our four year old to see Arriety this afternoon but if it was subtitled there would be no way in hell we would see it. I agree that with an adult property subtitles are the way to go, but for anything that mainly targets people under say 16 dubbing is preferable. If its a kids movie let the kids have it and wait for video for the subtitled track.
“Spirited Away” and “Howl’s Moving Castle” were in Japanese in selected US theaters, though Disney worked hard to not encourage people to see the subtitled version. “Ponyo” and “Arrietty” were both English-only for the US.
Totally agree with Joe on the dubbing issue re: foreign lingo toons.
What’s the point of seeing an “Arrietty” if you’re going to miss 50% of the visuals while trying to keep up with the subtitles?
While I normally abhor the practice of dubbing of any/all foreign language films (though I personally think “Russian Ark” could have been improved for non-Russian speaking audiences if the unseen narrator had been dubbed into English), it’s only common sense when it comes to animated films in which the visual component is the raison d’etre.
The other thing about “Arrietty” is not just that its main audience will be children but that they will be very young children. Sorry, anime fans, but the thing plays the youngest of any of the Ghibli movies.
I don’t see why dubbing makes more sense for animated films. Dubbing any film is going to lose some of the director’s original intent, no matter how good the dub cast is.
Since, say, Miyazaki’s intent is to beguile us with his lush, watercolor imagery, subtitles are a huge distraction for non-Japanese-speaking audiences who want to fully appreciate his cinematic vision.
So it makes no sense to try and make an animated movie more appealing to young kids? My son loves Ponyo but I can’t imagine him sitting through an animated movie with subtitles. He’s too young. I wouldn’t take him to see a subtitled animated movie in theaters.
…or to put it another way, you can’t see the forest for the trees.
Dessler, you can also argue that any translation between languages whether it is spoken or written for the audience will lose some of the director’s intent. Can’t we be content that its getting a wide release introducing the style to a larger audience.
At least with the Miyazaki films, Disney has generally gone the route of getting good actors for the voices instead of the usual array of star names that might distract from the material. That said, the U.S. cast for Arietty is a little weaker than the norm and I hope that when the DVD comes out, it includes both the Japanese track and the far-more-intriguing-sounding U.K. track.
I don’t have a problem with Disney dubbing the Ghibli movies. I have a problem with not being given a choice!
It’s difficult to believe you’re in Japan (especially when it’s a period/fantasy setting) and characters open their mouths and out come the voices of Billy Bob Thornton, Elliot Gould, Lauren Bacall, Billy Crystal, Tim Curry, Edward James Olmos, Jim Belushi, Liam Neeson, ad infinitum. It takes me right out of the picture. Moreover, the voice casting sometimes “rewrites” the story: serious, even villainous, characters become comedy relief (e.g., Thornton in MONONOKE, Crystal in HOWL) and vice versa (Neeson in PONYO). It is not asking too much to have one theatre per city playing the original track. Several years ago I released the anime STEAMBOY in both versions and everyone was happy. Why can’t Disney do the same?
And no, I don’t have a problem with subtitles in an animated feature. I’m a quick reader and in any event most dialogue is spoken in close-ups or two-shots with little to no concurrent action.
And let me reverse the situation: Say you live in Tokyo. Or Paris, Rome, Beijing or any other city where English is not the native language. Would you really want to watch ALADDIN with Robin Williams dubbed by some local guy? Or the TOY STORY movies without Hanks and Allen? Or even MONSTERS, INC. without Crystal and Goodman?
Cadavra: Actually, it’s my understanding that in the places you’re talking about, almost all movies — animated or otherwise — are dubbed into the local lingo. I may be mistaken, or relying on outdated info, but, again, it’s my understanding that the US is one of the relatively few countries where foreign-language films aren’t routinely dubbed for theatrical release.
This is from Wikipedia — which, I admit, is not an unimpeachable source, but…
In the Italian, French, German, Spanish, Turkish, Hungarian, Czech, Slovak, Russian and Ukrainian language-speaking markets of Europe, almost all foreign films and television shows are dubbed (the exception being only theatrical releases and high profile videos in Russia).
Joe: But you didn’t answer my admittedly somewhat rhetorical question–Wouldn’t you rather hear the voices of these world-famous and distinctively-voiced stars instead of some schleppers sitting in an ADR room? Or at least be given the choice, which remains the basic point of my rant?
If I had my druthers, I would rather see an animated feature dubbed. Period. BTW: I know you’re being theoretical, but I’m also considering your question from a practical standpoint: If I live in another country where English isn’t the primary language, and I don’t speak English, it’s altogether possible I have never heard the real voices of many Hollywood stars in movies, because of dubbing. So, really, I have no idea what I’m missing.
That’s a fair point, but it would make more sense decades ago. In the era of YouTube, other internet services, cable TV, hell, even the global telecast of the Oscars, I think a fair number of foreign folks would have at least a passing familiarity with Hollywood voices. But again: I’m fine with dubbing. I just want the second option. It costs next to nothing and makes grumpy guys like me happy.
Cadavra, don’t they have professional dubbers? Its not just some schmucks sitting in an ADR room, in many countrys they have voiceover actors who ARE the voice of stars to maintain consistancy for the audience. So Woody in Toy Story does sound the same as Larry Crowne.
Oh, and Thank You, I liked Steamboy.
But Cadavra, again: If I don’t speak English, why would I be listening to those folks on the Internet or elsewhere?
Amused to see that a 99-year-old Academy voter who watched silent films during their first run was not impressed by The Artist:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2012/02/academy-oscar-voters-connie-sawyer.html
Also Cadavra: I am not quite sure I understand your attempt to establish an equivalence here. Are you telling me that because I might see English-dubbed versions of Ghibli movies, I have missed out on hearing the Japanese equivalents of Tom Hanks and Robins Williams? Because if so, I would respond: Well, since I don’t speak Japanese, I can’t say I really care.
I would say that voice-casting is as important in Japan as it is here, and whether or not I as a non-Japanese-speaking person “recognize” those voices is of no importance. (In fact, not recognizing the voices would in these cases be an asset, as there would be no prior association to get in the way. When that is intentional–as in Williams in ALADDIN–that’s fine, but that isn’t the case here.)
Bottom line: The dubbers–both here and there–are not the original voices…which is what I, for one, want to hear. If that makes me picayune, so be it.
im all for subtitles. though i dont see the point in animation. i own a lot of anime with subtitles, but personally having it dubbed into english makes it much easier to get into, especially long forum animation like the tv series.
6 hours of animation & subtitles can feel like an eternity. i’ll take the the dubs any day of the week.
Oh hey, there was some Arrietty talk around here and I totally missed it. Cadavra, I get what you’re saying, and I would agree that least one theater in NY/LA would be great, but sadly, it’s not how the world works.
What I’m more pissed off at is that Disney does not domestically release the soundtracks and instead tries to tack on a song they themselves made and tries to sell that. I get that some songs need to be in English for the kids, but damn, that song at the end of Ponyo almost literally chased people out of the theater. I saw someone settling in to catch the last bit of Miyazaki’s artistry in the credits, and when that song came on, he literally scampered out like they were loading Disaster Movie in five seconds. They sell that crap, but not music by the great Joe Hisaishi? Princess Mononoke’s soundtrack is still one of the best CDs I own. Thankfully I’m able to find legal versions of “Arrietty’s Song” in both languages on iTunes, and the song they tacked onto Arrietty was more of a minor annoyance at the very end of the credits. Sad that I can’t get the full score on that one, though. Arrietty’s music is beautiful.
“The other thing about “Arrietty” is not just that its main audience will be children but that they will be very young children. Sorry, anime fans, but the thing plays the youngest of any of the Ghibli movies.”
I would actually say Ponyo aims lower. At its heart, Ponyo is for really little kids. Which is not to say it’s bad. It’s very good, but unlike what Totoro and Arrietty go for, it’s not straight-up an all ages affair in that yeah, it’s made for a younger audience, but adults will be just as enriched and all that. Yes, a lot of older people really like it, but it doesn’t feel like it was even partially made for them.
And Arrietty was simply a really nice movie. They kind of had to force a plot in there (“Wait, we actually have to have a conflict besides the Borrowers being so little cockroaches could eat them and the heart thing. Um um…. One of the aunts is tired of people thinking she’s crazy and does that snoopy neighbor from Bewitched thing. Go with that…”), but it was a lovely, relaxing movie and I enjoyed relaxing with it.
Hcat: You’re most welcome.
Joe, come on. You might not recognize the Japanese Tom Hanks but you might recognize tone, timber, voice, inflection – in other words, who dubbed Toshiro Mifune?
And of course, dubbing aimed at kids is fine.
To be clear, I don’t mind at all if a dubbed version of an animated film is made available for younger audiences. However, the definitive version is the sub, and that should be made available for older audiences. Most anime dubs are extremely mediocre, with flat or exaggerated line readings, and translated more loosely than subs usually are. Admittedly Disney does a better job on dubs than most (Billy Crystal was pretty funny in Howl’s Moving Castle).
To the point of “lush imagery”, many live action foreign films are heavily dependent on imagery. I have no problem enjoying the dialogue and visuals in subbed versions. I am surprised that there are cinephiles who would prefer a dub.
As for how the Japanese watch U.S. movies in theaters, the overwhelming majority of films screened are subbed versions. There is little demand for hearing Johnny Depp or Tom Cruise speak in Japanese on screen. The only exceptions are children’s animated films such as Toy Story, in which case a few theaters will add dubbed showings, but the majority will be subbed.
Wait, Toshiro Mifune did the voice for a Ghibli movie? Which one?
Well you wouldn’t know since he was dubbed by Whoopi Goldberg.
Oh, that one. Well, I must say, it was rather amusing to hear Whoopi voicing that samurai.
Desslar- In animated films, the visuals are pretty much the whole enchilada.
If you’re busy reading (words) at the bottom of the screen, it’s difficult to fully appreciate the most important dimension of an (animated) film.
What I find particularly ironic about this whole debate is that the Ghibli animators traditionally go out of their way to give human characters as non-Asian a face as possible. In “Arrietty,” the only “beans” who have even the slightest Asian (facial) characteristics are the two exterminators who show up for a minute of screen time in the final act.
Wouldn’t hearing Japanese emanate from the mouths of these western types seem a tad incongruous?
It’s odd enough that the signs are in Japanese and–in one dinner sequence of “Arrietty”–they’re using chopsticks.
Mighty peculiar considering the fact that, from all appearances, the characters look distinctly western (or as “western” as you can get in the anime world).
“If you’re busy reading (words) at the bottom of the screen, it’s difficult to fully appreciate the most important dimension of an (animated) film.”
Not at all. It’s like saying you can’t appreciate Fellini or Kurosawa.
And since a lot of anime visuals tend to be zen-like landscapes or metaphoric imagery, the subtitles are hardly distracting. Would I rather they not be there? Sure, but I’d rather not hear a Saturday Morning Cartoon voice instead of an actor doing justice to the material.
Movieman, maybe you’re new to anime, but the characters almost always look “Western” – a blowback to Tezuka copying Disney.
Actually, what creeps me out about anime is the number of female characters who look like bosomy girl scouts. Not so much in the Ghibli movies, but geez, in stuff like Ghost in the Shell…. BTW, LexG, do you view anime as an exception to your “I hate animated movies” rule?
I’m hardly “new” to anime, Christian. That’s an awfully condescending remark, don’t you think?
I’ve been watching Japanese animated films for decades. Sometimes with pleasure (most Miyazaki); sometimes not. And the subtitles have almost always felt like an unnecessary distraction/obstacle to getting “into” the film.
Re: Kurosawa and Fellini. Dubbing is a lot less distracting (and even noticeable in most cases) in animation than it is in live action films.
If I had to choose between seeing a foreign language movie dubbed into English or not at all, I’d opt for the latter.
I’m old enough to remember a time when the only way to see foreign films in the boonies (whether “The Emigrants,” “Scenes from a Marriage” or “Amarcord”) was in hideously dubbed versions. Believe it or not, dubbing has always been a pet peeve with me (sort of like Brits/Aussies who do lousy “neutral” American accents).
The dubbing work I’ve seen (heard?) in most (non-domestic) animated films in recent years has been pretty solid.
Including “Arrietty.”
Didn’t mean to be condescending at all. Just that the Western “Big Eyes” look is standard anime style and doesn’t look any more or less that way in Ghibli.
And the dubbing I hear is still usually beat off and too celebrity inflected. That’s how I roll.
Lex is banned, Joe.
Saw The Grey, and I can see why some liked it so much. There are some great visuals. A very unique ending to this genre – survivor story/ horror film. But aside from Leeson, I could not have been more bored with any of the other cast members. And there are some cliche’d as hell deaths in that movie.
Aside, the plane crash scene and some of the wide snow shots are just phenomenal. this will have a good life on DVD.
The Descendants has done nearly $75M?? What the H! I thought it had topped at $50M.
That’s the movie I most often hear among my friends as their favorite of the year. Mine is still Moneyball.
“Lex is banned, Joe.”
For how long this time, David?
It’s a bit condescending to say that visuals are the “whole enchilada” for animated films. They are critically important yes. But animated films are not just art projects. Animation is simply another medium for telling a story.
As for western-looking anime characters, as mentioned, this tendency dates back to the genre’s early days. However, in recent years one sees more Asian-looking characters. Ghibli films in particular tend to use more of an Asian look for their characters, which can be seen in several if not most of Arrietty’s characters. They are not photographically accurate, but rather stylized representations of Japanese people.
And the dialog and themes of Miyazaki films are extremely Japanese, which brings us back to why I prefer subs.
According to Lou Dobbs, Arrietty indoctrinates children in the liberal agenda. Was that because of the dubbing?
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/fox-business-lou-dobbs-bashes-animated-movies-lorax-secret-world-arrietty-indoctrinating-children-liberal-agenda-article-1.1026738
No, it’s because Lou Dobbs is an imbecile.