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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Old Klady Bear


As I noted a while back on Twitter, Ted will be the Bridesmaids of 2012… only bigger. There is a good chance that this film will become the #2 opener of the summer-to-date, as I think we’ll see a significant Saturday bump as the film is the must-see comedy that audience over 13 have been waiting for all summer. It’s a better comedy than Bridesmaids, in my opinion. My only reservation about the film is that there is so much topical comedy, it may keep the film from truly being a “forever” title.

Another strong movie, Magic Mike, opened very well for WB, even though the movie has a brain in its head. Brilliant marketing. Truly. There is some bait & switch, which Soderbergh approves of (hear: DP/30), but this is a box office column and the trick isn’t offensive when the movie is really good. (Maybe it should be. But I’m in Scotland, where the bus ads feature C-Tatum with a giant grin and no shirt. Bet it works here too. Also, there is plenty of beefcake, so it’s not an overt lie.)

And Tyler Perry opens to Madea form, if not her top form.

And now, I’m heading back into the film festival…. more later…

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63 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Old Klady Bear”

  1. movieman says:

    After reading A.O. Scott’s rave of “Take This Waltz” (he said he thought the first 90 minutes were perfect), I decided to pay the bargain price of $6.99 to watch it on PPV last nite.

    Gotta say I had a very interesting reaction to the film.
    Truth be told, I actively detested a good chunk of it (found it overly precious; thought most of the characters were annoying, or simply off-putting; loathed the echt Canadian-ness of it all; etc.) while I was watching.
    Yet, by the time the (end) credits rolled, I’d somehow managed to muster up a surprising amount of affection for the movie, the performances, the dreamy/creamy way that Toronto is shot, etc.
    Over the course of two hours, I went from, “This is very much in the style/spirit of a ’70s movie: a really BAD ’70s movie,” to, “This is why I loved ’70s movies so much.”
    Even though her character can be phenomenally grating at times (deliberately?), I actually liked Michelle Williams.
    And even though he’s sort of an unctuous poster boy for “Toronto Life Today,” I rather liked Luke Kirby, too.
    Seth Rogen is flat-out terrific (I really ached for his character at the end), and Sarah Silverman kind of shocked me since I’d previously thought she could only do “Sarah Silverman.”
    She gives a pretty solid dramatic performance here.
    Scott was right about the first 90 minutes being all of a piece (I wouldn’t say “perfect,” though) and the final half hour kind of going off the rails. But, like him, I don’t think the movie would have been what it is without that strange third act detour.
    Color me impressed.
    And as someone who was pretty cold on Polley’s “Away from Her” (and Williams in general), very pleasantly surprised.

  2. bulldog68 says:

    DP, you missed the obvious ‘Friday Estimates by Klady Teddy Bear.’

  3. movieman says:

    Also wanted to comment that I was delighted to see how well “Ted” and “MM” both opened.
    As someone who questioned the wisdom of Universal moving the Wahlberg comedy up by two weeks (although I still think it could have done as well, if not even better, opposite “Ice Age 4”), I was thrilled to see how the marketplace was big enough for two “R” rated adult movies to both open as well as they did on the same weekend.
    On a downer note: I didn’t figure “People” for a total non-starter, though.
    Of course, I thought “Seeking a Friend” would’ve done a LOT better last week than it did.
    Does anyone else think that maybe the oppressive heat in much of the country might have contributed to yesterday’s exceptionally robust box office performance?

  4. christian says:

    And I love that all my non-film buff fans are seeing Soderbergh this weekend while his detractors whine, “He needs to stop navel-gazing!”

  5. Greg says:

    I went to a sparsely attended late show of Take This Waltz at the Varsity in Toronto last night. I was completely floored by the film. It actually gave me chills with its excellence. I fell for it hard. It just had such real emotions.

    Michelle Williams is always a joy to watch and her performance was superb. To me, Seth Rogen was the only week link. Not his performance, I just couldnt quite believe them as a couple.

    The speech by Sarah Silverman’s character at the end was heartbreaking.

    And ‘Video Killed the Radio Star’…excellent.

    Sarah Polley is a real film maker.

  6. Clearly, moviegoers didn’t mind the bait-and-switch on “Magic Mike” that much in the end. The CinemaScore was a B. By comparison, “Haywire” was a D, “Contagion” was a C, and “The Informant!” was a B-.

  7. etguild2 says:

    Kinda sad that “Magic Mike” needed one day to outgross “Haywire.” Hard to believe this will be Soderbergh’s biggest weekend ever.

    Also, Wahlberg’s 2nd biggest weekend ever behind “Apes.”

  8. Aaron Aradillas says:

    Anyone know the history behind SEEKING A FRIEND? I saw it a couple of days ago and was surprised at how good it was. Why did Focus dump it? It felt like a Spring or late August release. Was there a change in management? Did it not test well? The use of the Hollies’ “The Air I Breathe” was absolutely perfect.

    And I finally saw MEN IN BLACK 3 and can’t believe how much I genuinely love that movie. Fast, funny, and shocking in how moving it really is. How often does the 3rd entry in a series turn out to be the best in the series? The one thing I shook my head at was realizing that a MEN IN BLACK movie now looks almost classical compared to THE AVENGERS or BATTLESHIP or SNOW WHITE. There’s a lightness to MIB3 that’s missing from today’s summer blockbusters.

    Who here remembers wheen the first MIB was considered the movie to beat during summer ’97?

    I also saw an early press screening of RUBY SPARKS. I’m not allowed to say anything, but I will say it’s nothing like LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE.

  9. movielocke says:

    Take this Waltz and Sisters Sister look like your everyday blech anonymous/forgettable indy-crap bleh-dramas that we get a couple dozen of every year. Please give me some reason to see a movie other than ‘people are sad, mmkay, it’s really deep, mmkay, cuz they’re sad’

  10. David Poland says:

    I love Take This Waltz and think it is, specifically one of the best films for women – especially 20 – 40 year olds – of 2012.

  11. movieman says:

    I love Take This Waltz and think it is, specifically one of the best films for women – especially 20 – 40 year olds – of 2012.

    I kind of loved “Waltz,” too, Dave, but isn’t this a rather narrow demographic?
    How many movies released this year were designed (intentionally or not) with 20-40 year old women in mind?
    Or, for that matter, women period?
    “The Hunger Games” and “Snow White” skew slightly younger; “MM,” older, right?

  12. Paul D/Stella says:

    Normally free screenings are full no matter what the movie is. In January here angry people were turned away from a full Man on a Ledge screening 30 minutes before it started. Same for Wanderlust in February. Neither one really lit the box office on fire. The People Like Us screening was not even a third full. If people weren’t interested in seeing it for free, I figured it was doomed. Seems like a poor release date.

  13. bulldog68 says:

    Anybody got any theories as to why the Ice Age series is so popular internationally. Reports are that it is already breaking animation records and surpassing Ice Age 3 which stands at a huge $690m. What was it about part 3 to cause it to gross $230m more than it’s predecessor, which was no slouch itself? Ice Age 3 is the all time international animated box office champ and the 8th biggest international gross of all time.

    I personally think they are harmless fun, but those numbers are in the stratosphere.

  14. berg says:

    interesting for all the beefcake talk about MM, when Take This Waltz features Williams and Silverman full frontal in a shower scene

  15. Ray Pride says:

    Bulldog, don’t they have local comics fashion jokes for many, many markets? I’ll try to find an article that confirms.

  16. movieman says:

    To me, Seth Rogen was the only week link. Not his performance, I just couldnt quite believe them as a couple.

    Really, Greg?
    Why do you think that is?
    Since neither Williams or Rogen is a conventional beauty, I found their coupledom perfectly convincing. (And who hasn’t seen a stunning woman hand in hand with a schlumpy guy before? Or vice versa for that matter?)
    For me, Rogen was pretty much the heart of the film. He was certainly the character I felt the most empathy for.

  17. Smith says:

    After not having much time to go to the movies for the first half of June, I’m finding an awful lot of good movies to catch up on. Anybody else starting to feel like summer 2012 is turning out to be an embarrassment of riches? Finally caught up with Moonrise and Brave – loved both of them – and still have the new Woody, Magic Mike, Ted, Safety Not Guaranteed, Beasts…, Take This Waltz to see. I can’t remember the last time I had so many options to choose from going into the July 4th holiday…

  18. Rob says:

    Wow, Magic Mike is an absolute blast and Tatum is fantastic in it. One of my three or four favorite movies of the year. Granted, this is the rare gay-guy perspective on the Hot Blog, but I really thought it was a lean, solid, well-crafted dramedy. It’s also beautifully shot, and if you’re disappointed with the MTV cutting that blenderizes the choreography in today’s musicals, it’s a pleasure watching the actors dance. (It doesn’t hurt that they’re in thongs.)

  19. bulldog68 says:

    I really don’t know Ray.

  20. LexG says:

    Magic Mike ABSOLUTELY RULED. Loved it.

    Awesome Tatum and Wahlberg both kicking ass this weekend… Tatum is kind of The New Wahlberg in a lot of ways.

  21. bulldog68 says:

    Tatum is having a hell of year, three $100m movies within six months, and GI Joe was a fourth possibility until it was moved. Is he the new go to guy now? Both action and romance?

  22. Big G says:


    Sorry, couldn’t help it. Although she is right about one thing. When will people get tired of that stupid fucking character?

  23. anghus says:

    Just got out from seeing Ted. I don’t know who i felt worse for: the kids whose parents walked them out after realizing how ill suited this movie was for ten year olds, or the kids whose parents let them stay and watch the whole thing and will one day realize what shitty parents they had.

    I thought it was great. Funny movie. There were ancillary laughs. There was a row of kids so fucking high that they laughed at everything, even the melodramatic heartfelt moments. They just couldnt stop laughing. And it clearly divided the crowd. Half of them laughed along with them. The other half kept muttering “this part isn’t supposed to be funny”. And i had to wonder are there really grown adult people in this society who dont know what marijuana is and are socially unable to identify them in a movie audience. Here’s a hint:

    They’re laughing at everything.

  24. LexG says:

    Ang… I do this riff all the time, so apologies for the repeat business… but TED isn’t any particularly raunchier than stuff like Caddyshack or Stripes or Porky’s or Up the Academy that we all watched when we were 8 or 9. Though I guess it is different watching it at home on cable than having it big as life on a movie theater screen; Still, it’s a pretty genteel movie and not especially raunchier than McFarlane’s animated series, which air on network TV.

  25. Christian says:

    Young folk often laugh at dramatic moments because they’re embarrased by them.

  26. Chris says:

    Ted was great, just saw Safety Not Guaranteed, that was actually pretty good, looking forward to Magic Mike tomorrow.

    Total side note: the DP/30 should become a podcast. Why not? It’s just an interview. Who needs the camera? It’s all about podcasting these days.

  27. Alex says:

    bulldog68: “Anybody got any theories as to why the Ice Age series is so popular internationally.”

    Here in germany/austria it’s all because of the voice actors. They are very well known (much more than their english speaking counterparts are in the US). Especially Otto Waalkes (Sid the sloth), a very successful comedian for almost 40 years. There’s actually a longer scene in Ice Age 4 based on one of Ottos earler work.

  28. anghus says:

    Lex, i dont think its any raunchier than the comedies you mentioned, but i think lining 8 and 9 year olds up to see any of them is a faulty proposition. If you havent had the sex talk with your kids and you hear a stuffed bear talking about fucking a girl with a parsnip, your parenting skills might be suspect.

    Much like letting your kids learn about drugs via Caddyshack might be a bad idea.

  29. LexG says:

    I turned out alright.

  30. LexG says:

    On a more pressing note, Olivia Munn fans are in for a treat in MM. MUNN LOOK AT HER.

    Is she anywhere near that awesome on Newsroom?

  31. anghus says:

    “i turned out alright”

    careful. hammering irony that hard on a blog could crack the internet right in half.

  32. Joe Leydon says:

    Finally caught up with Prometheus and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter today. It took a while for me to get caught up in Prometheus — about an hour, actually — but I wound up developing a rooting interest in the two characters who make it to the closing credits. Enjoyed Abe a lot, mostly for the reason some people here and elsewhere have cited for disliking it — it wasn’t tongue-in-cheek or campy, but serious and straightforward. Also, while I wasn’t entirely happy with the many liberties the screenwriter took with his own novel, I absolutely loved the final scene.

  33. Ray Pride says:

    Are you going to write about ABE, Joe? I’d be interested in that.

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    I’ll likely reference in an upcoming piece I’m working on. What did you think? BTW: In case you missed it, I wrote a preview piece for Cowboys & Indians.

  35. Ray Pride says:

    I didn’t write about it, but I had a fine time with much of it, Joe. A Kazakh immersed in Americana making a movie that could be a Soviet hagiography of Old Joe Stalin as a [fill in Guy Maddin-like cinematic extrapolation]. Tangy implications.

  36. alynch says:

    “On a more pressing note, Olivia Munn fans are in for a treat in MM. MUNN LOOK AT HER.”

    Yep. As good as the marketing was, anyone think they left money on the table by not doing more to alert the geeks that Munn is topless in the movie? Probably not, but I was caught off guard by it nonetheless. Usually when a recognizable actress does nudity, you hear about it in advance.

  37. etguild2 says:

    I wonder if Mila took the role in TED to get out of her “Family Guy” contract. It’s the most thankless role she’s had since EXTRACT, not that she looked bad.

  38. christian says:

    Alynch, most guys don’t go to a movie to see a woman topless. That’s why God invented the internet. Many women, however, will go to a movie to see fine male bods. I think the last time a male audience went en masse to see breasts was THE DEEP.

  39. Was anyone else over 12 besides me surprised and disappointed Ted was as tame and soft as it was? It was a few swear words and a quick boobshot away from being milder than an episode of Family Guy. And as far as topical comedy goes, how topical is Diff’rent Strokes and 9/11 right now? I think MacFarlane pulled his punches to be embraced by a wide audience and it worked.

  40. actionman says:

    magic mike was fantastic. i liked it more than the wife did. soderbergh is a genius and the movie is great for so many small reasons.

    we just finished take this waltz. utterly brilliant. bold. challenging.

  41. Foamy Squirrel says:

    So who remembers Alex Pettyfer’s run at leading man a year or two ago – Beastly, I Am Plan 9 From Outer Space etc.?

    Now he’s like 5th billing below Joe Manganiello. I’d say similar for McConnaughy, but I keep having the Family Guy interpretation of him where he’s so laid back he doesn’t care what he’s doing as long as he’s enjoying himself.

  42. Krillian says:

    Is Seth Green in Ted too? I’m pretty sure I saw Alex Borstein in the previews.

  43. Nick Rogers says:

    Regarding a post above: Has there ever been a lead actor — one on whose face each movie was sold — to have three $100 million live-action movies in the same year?

  44. etguild2 says:

    Nope Nick, not unless you count people who went to see “The Incredible Hulk” for Downey’s 1-minute cameo.

  45. I’m surprised there’s not more love for McConaughey in MM. He’s great. Pettyfer… eh.

  46. Joshua says:

    “Magic Mike” also, in one day, outgrossed the entire theatrical runs of “Kafka,” “King of the Hill,” “The Underneath,” “Gray’s Anatomy,” “Schizopolis,” “The Limey,” “Full Frontal,” “Eros,” “Bubble,” “The Good German,” “Che,” “The Girlfriend Experience,” and “And Everything Is Going Fine” combined.

    Granted, none of those movies ever played even 10% as many theaters as “Magic Mike” did. Still, they represent more than half of Soderbergh’s directing career.

  47. Rob says:

    “Now he’s like 5th billing below Joe Manganiello.”

    Huh? He’s billed second and is the co-lead of the movie.

  48. Foamy Squirrel says:

    It was exaggeration – true. I’m mainly referring to the distinct lack of press coverage compared to the rest of the cast. See: his complete absence from the Entertainment Weekly photoshoot.

    Honestly, it’s only due to his name on the posters that I’m aware he’s in it.

  49. Rob says:

    It is interesting how minor Bomer and Manganiello’s roles are in comparison to their prominence in the marketing.

  50. David Poland says:

    Pettyfer burnt his Hollywood bridges in a hurry. He could recover. Here in the UK, he is one of only large names on all the outdoor I’ve seen.

    He is unrecognizable and had no box office value at all in the US. At least the girl serves a function, even as a non-name.

  51. actionman says:

    I second the Olivia Munn/Magic Mike POWER. HEr casual topless nudity was WONDERFUL.

    Also — Lex — have u seen Take this Waltz? FEEEEEEEET shots GALORE…

  52. Christian says:


  53. Chucky says:

    I actually went out and saw something — “Your Sister’s Sister”. Suburban NYC megaplex, the only mainstream theater around NYC with that movie. It was in the smallest hall and nearly sold out (!). Even with that it was a potty-mouth mess only LexG would love. Not to mention a contrived happy ending.

    @movieman: Overall box office is crimped. Most of Virginia, Maryland and D.C. have no power due to thunderstorms and high winds that passed through on Friday night.

  54. etguild2 says:

    In Northern Virginia, I can tell you that in Fairfax which was hit hardest, Tyson’s Corner, one of the largest multiplexes on the East Coast, was apparently packed. TED was sold out despite playing on 2 large screens yesterday, MAGIC MIKE was sold out midday yesterday…so went to the local indie. TO ROME WITH LOVE was sold out. PEOPLE LIKE US was nearly full which is what we opted for.

    When you have 102 degree weather with no power and AC, you run to the movies as fast as you can…(I was lucky to have power..a bunch of friends weren’t)

  55. movieman says:

    Pettyfer did nothing for me previously, but he and Soderbergh found the perfect look/body/attitude for his character in “MM.”
    I’m not usually an ass man, but….yowza!

    Hey, if Lex can wax rhapsodic over actresses’ feet ad infinitum, I can admire Pettyfer’s butt.

  56. Chucky says:

    @etguild2: I’m shocked about Tyson’s Corner. The Virginia portion of the Beltway is torn up with long-term construction. If the theater was running, the mall had power.

  57. bulldog68 says:

    I’m just wondering if Tatum is now to Soderberg what DeCaprio was to Scorsese?

    I never thought I’d be singing Tatum’s praises but he has now developed into that rare breed of actor that does all out romantic films, not romantic comedies, just pure weepy romances, and mixes them with action and action comedies, and he is now being very successful. Not many actors can claim that.

    If the stories are true that they are redoing the new GI Joe to increase his role, then look for a complete rewrite where he isn’t killed off.

  58. Don R. Lewis says:

    Man, I’m surprised at all the love for TAKE THIS WALTZ. I rented it on-demand and liked it o.k. but wasn’t floored by it. I may need to see it again.

    I saw BRAVE yesterday and liked it but it felt “rushed” or something. Alot of the Pixar story brilliance had it’s strings showing I felt. Still, cool, fun and interesting movie. SOooooo glad I left my 4-year old at home. There were some scary parts that would have had her heading for the door.

  59. etguild2 says:

    @Chucky, mall got power around noon yesterday, but it was out before that. Most of the long-term construction on the Metro extension has moved past Tyson’s toward Reston at this point.

    @bulldog, it would seem that way. “The Bitter Pill” seems intriguing.

  60. David Poland says:

    The big difference, bulldog, is that Leo meant a lot to Scorsese getting his money to make those films. Channing hasn’t been a cash machine for Soderbergh in terms of funding. Channing also brought MM to SS and though Leo has become more of a producer, that’s not how things started.

  61. Rob says:

    “Hey, if Lex can wax rhapsodic over actresses’ feet ad infinitum, I can admire Pettyfer’s butt.”


  62. SamLowry says:

    “My only reservation about the film is that there is so much topical comedy, it may keep the film from truly being a “forever” title.”

    Look at all the crap movies making tons of money in the post-Transformers era and I’ll think you’ll find many folks who don’t care about “forever” or even their own image. They’d rather make all their money right now, thank you very much, even if it means being called a hack rather than an artist.

    Brings to mind George Pullman, who demanded to be buried under tons of steel and concrete to ensure his justifiably-enraged employees wouldn’t be able to dig him up and desecrate his corpse.

  63. cadavra says:

    One more reason why the classic comedies of the past remain timelessly funny–their avoidance of topical jokes. (The one exception to this is Bob Hope, and while his early films remain amusing, the profusion of topical punchlines can produce head-scratching even among people who know the era well. In his later years, many critics cracked that his writers must have thought they were penning a monologue for one of his TV specials and not a feature film script.) It’s just a shame that Mr. I-Won’t-Watch-Anything-Before-1968 is denying himself the pleasure of those great comedies.

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And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

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