The Weekend Report

Trouble With the Estimate

The fight for bragging rights dominated weekend estimates with three incoming movies all claiming top spot on the charts. From this perch the lineup shakes out with the cop on the beat End of Watch ahead with $12.9 million, Clint in baseball Trouble with the Curve right behind with $12.7 million and the chiller The House at the End of the Street trailing with $12.4 million.

For starters, none of the trio bowed to inspired numbers. And secondly situations like this (close races) perpetuate the terrible advance of estimates becoming actuals and actuals becoming afterthoughts.

The session also featured the national bow of Dredd with a moribund $6.2 million and a dull start for the independent drama Unconditional of $540,000 at 350 venues. Heroine, the lastest from Bollywood, posted OK results of $411,000 from 111 playdates while the considerably smaller Pinoy circuit boasted an impressive $362,000 for The Mistress from a mere 19 screens. Also off to a good start was the 14-screen launch of Armenian comedy My Uncle Rafael of $101,000 and Korean import Masquerade with a $61,100 gross at 15 sites.

A veritable tsunami of exclusive bows did little to raise the recently sinking attendance level. Best of the bunch was the nonfiction Diana Vreeland: The Eyes Have to Travel with three screens tallying $58,400.

Overall weekend box office slightly exceeded $90 million for a small 6% boost from last weekend. It was again 22% behind 2011 when the second weekend of The Lion King meowed to $21.9 million and newcomers Moneyball and Dolphin Tale bowed respectively with $19.5 million and $19.2 million. Suffice it to say Skyfall and a new Twilight cannot arrive too soon for film exhibition.

Pundits had pegged Trouble with the Curve as a slight favorite against End of Watch but it appears a younger crowd provided the latter with a dot more energy. The Eastwood yarn attracted a 55% female crowd with 83% of opening weekenders age 25 and older. Women also fueled the audience of The House at the End of the Street (bless you, Jennifer Lawrence) comprising 61% of the crowd with 70% of viewers aged 25 and younger.

And for the record Dredd tilted 75% male and 69% of fanboys aged 25 and older.

The deluge of new releases across the spectrum of movie going definitely hasn’t translated into more is more. That’s certainly renewed the debate of too many pictures in the marketplace as well as the more salient discussion of scheduling more potent films in September. Unless there’s an unexpected breakout title in the next few weeks a considerable portion of the audience will be munching on leftovers until Thanksgiving … and one risks the peril of losing another sliver of regular viewers.

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