Gurus o’ Gold: After Toronto (Part 1)
Things have changed a bit since The Gurus last opined before the Toronto International Film Festival.
First, some internal business. Guru Dave Karger has moved on from Entertainment Weekly to get into a video-focused deal at Fandango. And we welcome back veteran Guru, Glenn Whipp, who is now at the Los Angeles Times.
Back to handicapping…
The Gurus picked 15 unranked choices each for Best Picture, with seven titles getting a vote from every one of the participating Gurus. Three of those movies, still unseen, remain in the Top Six. Three—Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Moonrise Kingdom—remain in the Top Ten. And Anna Karenina falls to #11.
The big movers are Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi.
Dropping off the chart with no one casting a vote for them—with only 10 picks per Guru in this round—are Cloud Atlas, The Company You Keep, Hope Springs, The Hunt, Hyde Park On The Hudson, Inside Llewyn Davis, Killing Them Softly, Not Fade Away, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Rust & Bone, Stories We Tell, To The Wonder, Trouble With The Curve, On The Road, and Arbitrage.
This morning, a look at the new Best Picture chart and Longshot picks in the acting categories, led by Jack Black, Richard Gere, and Emmanuelle Riva.
In Part 2, posting later today, The Gurus take on the four acting races. And for your edification, here is last season’s Post-TIFF Gurus chart.
(NOTE: Stories We Tell will not be released in 2012.)
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture (Unranked) | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | t1 |
Argo Warner Bros |
3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 105 | |||
| 2 |
Silver Linings Playbook The Weinstein Company |
4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 97 | ||||
| 3 | t1 |
Les Miserables Universal |
5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 78 | |||
| 4 |
Life of Pi 20th Century Fox |
1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 77 | |||||
| 5 | t1 |
Lincoln DreamWorks/Disney |
2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 76 | |||
| 6 | t1 |
Zero Dark Thirty Sony Pictures |
7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 47 | ||||||
| 7 |
The Master The Weinstein Company |
6 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 46 | |||||||
| 8 | t1 |
Beasts of the Southern Wild Fox Searchlight |
6 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 34 | ||||||
| 9 |
Amour Sony Classics |
1 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | |||||||||||
| 10 | t1 |
Moonrise Kingdom Focus Features |
10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 17 | |||||||||
| t1 |
Anna Karenina |
8 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 13 | ||||||||||||
|
Django Unchained |
8 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
|
The Sessions |
9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
|
Hitchcock |
6 | 9 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
|
Promised Land |
9 | 10 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
The Impossible |
7 | 10 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Flight |
9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
The Hobbit |
7 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Dark Knight Rises |
8 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Intouchables |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Holy Motors |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Acting Longshots | Breznican | Ellwood | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jack Black Bernie |
5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||
|
Richard Gere Arbitrage |
1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |||||||||||||||
|
Bruce Willis |
2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
|
Judi Dench Skyfall |
2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
|
Emmanuelle Riva Amour |
1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
|
Suraj Sharma Life of Pi |
3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
|
Joseph Gordon-Levitt |
5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
|
Naomi Watts The Impossinble |
5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
|
Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike |
5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Jim Broadbent Cloud Atlas |
3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Tom Hanks Cloud Atlas |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Salma Hayak Savages |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Tom Holland The Impossible |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Irrfan Khan Life of Pi |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight Rises |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Russell Crowe Les MIserables |
1 | 1 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mary Elizabeth Winstead Smashed |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Pat Healy Compliance |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
John Hawkes The Sessions |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Anthony Hopkins Hitchcock |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Nate Parker Arbitrage |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Quvenzhane Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Alicia Vikander Anna Karenina |
2 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Terrance Stamp Song For Marion |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Samantha Barks Les Miserables |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jean-Louis Trintignant Amour |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Frank Langella Robot & Frank |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jake Gyllenhaal End of Watch |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jamie Foxx Django Unchained |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Kerry Washington Django Unchained |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Robert DeNiro Silver Linings Playbook |
3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Logsn Lerman The Perks of Being A Wallflower |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Maggie Smith Quartet |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jacki Weaver Silver Linings Playbook |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ezra Miller The Perks of Being A Wallflower |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Keira Knightley Anna Karenina |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Leslie Mann This Is 40 |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Kristen Stewart On The Road |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Judi Dench The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Helena Bonham Carter Great Expectations |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
those longshots are mostly funny, a lot of frontrunners there. Especially Riva, who is probably in third position right now behind Wallis and Lawrence.
Is the Hobbit Hugo 2.0? A film people have decided not to anticipate, but actually gathers tons of noms throughout the season after it drops?
Remember, The Hobbit opens the Friday before balloting begins, it isn’t opening against any other films, nothing else in limited, nothing else wide, it owns that weekend, a weekend which is all the more crucial with the early balloting. It’ll be riding a wave of popularity and goodwill going into the opening of balloting and I expect it will overperform at the oscars because of that.
Many of those acting longshots are very strange…Can we confide in the good taste of Gurus? And don’t forget of Marion Cotillard. Please!
Can you at least spell Knigthley’s last name correctly, it’s pretty ridiculous!
Hey DP,
You’ve said in the past that Oscar won’t even consider Neil Patrick Harris to host the show because he’s a TV guy and they only hire film people.
Well McFarlane has fewer film credentials than Harris and is completely a TV guy.
Does the boneheaded decision of McFarlane mean NPH has a chance in the future? This pick seems like they’re going to give it the old college try one more time. I mean the philosphy of, ‘let’s try and repeat the Hathaway/Franco experiment; let’s chase the elusive teen boys and tweenty boys demographics, because this time it’ll work!’
Why is Naomi Watts constantly considered a longshot? The Impossible has been getting nothing but raves.