Gurus o’ Gold: Post-NYFCC/Pre-Globes Nominations
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Lincoln DreamWorks/Disney |
3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 126 |
| 2 | 5 |
Zero Dark Thirty Sony Pictures |
1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 122 |
| 3 | 2 |
Les Miserables Universal |
2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 118 |
| 4 | 3 |
Argo Warner Bros |
4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 98 |
| 5 | 4 |
Silver Linings Playbook The Weinstein Company |
6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 91 |
| 6 | 6 |
Life of Pi 20th Century Fox |
5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 71 |
| 7 | 9 |
Beasts of the Southern Wild Fox Searchlight |
10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | ||||
| 8 | 7 |
Amour Sony Classics |
9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 | |||||
| 9 |
Django Unchained The Weinstein Company |
7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 18 | ||||||||
| 10 | 8 |
The Master The Weinstein Company |
8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 17 | |||||||
| 10 |
Moonrise Kingdom |
8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 16 | ||||||||
|
Flight |
9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | |||||||||||
|
The Impossible |
7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 12 | ||||||||||||
|
Anna Karenina |
9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
|
Skyfall |
10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
The Dark Knight Rises |
10 | 10 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
|
The Hobbit |
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Sessions |
0 | 0 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t1 | 1 |
Steven Spielberg Lincoln |
3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 54 | |
| t1 | t5 |
Kathryn BIgelow Zero Dark Forty |
1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 54 | |
| 3 | 2 |
Ben Affleck Argo |
2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 43 | |
| 4 | 3 |
Tom Hooper Les Miserables |
5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 32 | |||
| 5 | 4 |
David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | ||||||
| t5 |
Ang Lee Life of Pi |
4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | ||||||||||||
|
Michael Haneke Amour |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Paul Thomas Anderson The Master |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 70 |
| 2 | 2 |
Hugh Jackman Les Miserables |
2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 42 | ||
| 3 | 3 |
Denzel Washington Flight |
4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 30 | ||
| 4 | 5 |
John Hawkes The Sessions |
3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 4 |
Joaquin Phoenix The Master |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 23 | |||||
|
Bradley Cooper Silver Linings Playbook |
5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook |
3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 63 | |
| 2 | 2 |
Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 61 | |
| 3 | 3 |
Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone |
3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 | ||||
| t4 | 5 |
Emmanuelle Riva Amour |
4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 20 | |||||
| t4 | 4 |
Quvenzhané Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild |
5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 20 | ||||||
|
Naomi Watts The Impossible |
2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
|
Rachel Weisz The Deep Blue Sea |
5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
|
Keira Knightley Anna Karenina |
4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Helen Mirren Hitchcock |
5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Emayatzy Corinealdi Middle of Nowhere |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Anne Hathaway Les Miserables |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 70 | |
| 2 | 2 |
Sally Field Lincoln |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 53 | |
| 3 | 3 |
Helen Hunt The Sessions |
3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 39 | ||
| 4 | 4 |
Amy Adams The Master |
3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 27 | |||
| 5 | 5 |
Maggie Smith The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel |
4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | ||||||||
|
Ann Dowd Compliance |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |||||||||||
|
Kelly Reilly Flight |
4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Samantha Barks Les Miserables |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Jennifer Ehle Zero Dark Thirty |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Gloria Rueben Lincoln |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Judi Dench Skyfall |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jackie Weaver Silver Linings Playbook |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Breznican | Ellwood | Feinberg | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | Stone | Tapley | Thompson | Whipp | Wloszczyna | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 |
Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln |
2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 56 | |
| 2 | 3 |
Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook |
4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 47 | |
| 3 | 1 |
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 45 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Alan Arkin Argo |
3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 32 | ||
| 5 | 5 |
Leonardo DiCaprio Django Unchained |
1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 14 | |||||||
|
Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike |
4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
|
Eddie Redmayne Les Miserables |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
|
Ewan McGragor The Impossible |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Javier Bardem Skyfall |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Jason Clarke Zero Dark Thirty |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Russell Crowe Les Miserables |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
John Goodman Flight |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Samuel L Jackson Django Unchained |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
The most interesting result of these charts is the stark contrast in votes for Philip Seymour Hoffman: seven prognosticators see him as the #1 most likely, but three don’t even place him in the top five. What gives?
Marion gave the best performance of this year
Curious as to whether Dave’s lone prediction for Samuel L. Jackson getting in for DJANGO rather than Leo (who is currently #5 in the consensus) is based on seeing the film or just a hunch.
I think Sam’s is the one great performance in Django. And I don’t know that either will get in. The biggest problem is that Jackson may not have anyplace to get a foothold.
I do think there will probably be a shake-up in that category before it’s over.
By mid-December last year, two performances had already solidified their hold on the major awards: Christopher Plummer’s and Octavia Spencer’s, although The Artist seemed pretty solid for Best Picture. I don’t see any such early lock this year, including early favorite Anne Hathaway, who isn’t winning the early critics’ awards.
Logan – The norm in recent years is, like last year, early supporting front-runners locking in by or at Toronto. Not this year. DeNiro is the only one of the 4 front-runners in Supporting whose film was even out/being seen by voters before mid-October.
I’m mostly surprised to see the unanimous Lead Actor prediction for DDL. Does anyone think that they will make him wait for a 3rd Oscar the way they made the beloved Meryl Streep wait? He would be the only 3-time Lead Actor winner as well. Such an interesting race, Lead Actor is.
And notice how Ann Dowd has arisen to #6. Chomping at Dame Maggie Smith’s heels in Best Supp. Actress.And this is with her own ONE-WOMAN campaign. No millions of dollars behind her rise in “Compliance.” Only her talent!
And Jessica Chastain is getting awfully close to the top slot in Best Actress.
It’s sooo interesting that we have a RACE this year!
Best pic – zero dark thirty
Best director – kathryn bigalow
best actor – daniel day lewis
best actress – jessica chastain
best supporting actor – phillip seymore hoffman
best supporting actress – @nne hathaway
A travesty that Paul Thomas Anderson- the only TRUE auteur on the list of names above besides Ang Lee and Spielberg (maybe Bigelow) is a one vote wonder. How in the hell does Russell or that hack Hooper have a better shot?
It boggles my mind that more people don’t have Les Mis as the Best Picture front-runner, despite the excellence of the competition.
The Lord of the Rings was the most popular novel ever written, took forever to get to the screen, was adapted in a daring and technically innovative fashion, and was rapturously well received. How did that work out at Oscar time? And that was despite a long-standing and severe Academy bias against fantasy.
Les Mis is the most popular musical of all time, has taken forever to get to the screen, has been adapted in a daring and innovative fashion, and (so far) has been rapturously received. The Academy has no bias against its genre and its director has more of a pedigree than Peter Jackson did. So how does it not win the BP Oscar?
It would have to disappoint at the box office, right? Given the established fan base, the quality of the product, the accessibility of the material, and the through-the-roof potential for repeat viewings, does that have any chance of happening? Chicago grossed $220.5M in 2012 dollars; it’s hard to see Les Mis doing less than $300.
Check out the best director section. They said “Zero Dark Forty”