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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by B.O. Klady: Recalculation

Kind of a sad weekend for near-misses. Easter is taking a bite out estimates for Tyler Perry and The Host. DWA’s first Fox release, The Croods, launched right between Hotel Transylvania and How To Train Your Dragon, but its second weekend is behind both of the other releases’ second weekends… though again, Easter. Oz was surely hoping for $20m by the end of this weekend. Nope. In its fourth weekend, it’s almost where Alice was after two. And Alice did about 50% more in its fourth weekend than Oz is doing. The good news is that Oz, worldwide, has now covered its marketing costs and distribution fees. Now, on to the cost of the film!!!

On the happier side, The Call is heading to $50m+, which will make it a success for a Sony pick-up. Spring Breakers will pass $10 million tomorrow and could get close to $20 million in theatrical. Sony Classics is about to go over $2 million on The Gatekeepers, a doc, and will get over $1.5m on No, a feature about a Chilean election.

The Place Beyond the Pines had a 4-screen launch that is, objectively, very similar to Spring Breaker‘s 3-screen launch of a couple weeks ago. My guess is that there will not be similar media hysteria benefiting Pines. Why? Expectations are higher, given that Cianfrance’s last film did over $10m. Also, no ass for media to hyper-rationalize. (I have no problem with self-serious people having the taste of a 13-year-old boy sometimes… just with pretending that their inner pubescent is there for the cutting edge of art.)

Less happy at the arthouses, three movies with seemingly salable elements; On The Road with Kristin Stewart, Ginger & Rosa with Elle Fanning, and The Sapphires, which is a terrific feel-good story. All three worked the festival circuit and got a lot of hum… and then got cold waiting for someone to show up for the buffet this month. I’m not saying that any of these movies was going to break out and do mega-arthouse biz, but all three feel like they missed windows of opportunity. They built interest via publicity, never expected to spend on marketing, then waited so long that the original momentum was moot. Kind of a shame.

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7 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by B.O. Klady: Recalculation”

  1. etguild2 says:

    The three men to direct nine $20 million openers? Steven Spielberg, Bob Zemeckis and Tyler Perry of course! I’m not sure how this sexified, Madea-less release qualifies as a “near miss” DP. Seems like a hit given the challenges, though again it could be partly due to the under-served urban market this quarter.

    Also, I’m pretty sure $400 million worldwide for OZ is a bit better of a result than you’re intimating…

    QUARTET at nearly 17 million isn’t bad.

  2. BoulderKid says:

    Wow, Admission is a disaster that everyone involved with needs to distance themselves from. It’s really troubling for the talent when a film built on its stars chemistry tanks, absent some damning Gigli-style critical reception.

    I think we can pretty much chalk Paul Rudd up as someone who is either a supporting player or who really needs to be carefully used in a film that is presold to a key audience like “I Love You Man”.

    “The Call” is quietly doing solid business. It should be a monster on VOD and DVD.

  3. indiemarketer says:

    Another fail for Open Road…never ending amount of screens and not attracting an audience ($1,624 screen average).

  4. movieman says:

    QUARTET at nearly 17 million isn’t bad.

    Agree, Et. It’s possibly the quietest success story of the year so far.

    I wonder how the failure of “Admission” will affect Focus’ release strategy for “Pines.”
    Will they keep it arthouse, or attempt a multiplex crossover because of Gosling and Cooper? Should be interesting.

    Re: “Admission.” Would it have done better if it had reteamed Fey w/ her “Baby Mama” costar Amy Poehler?
    Despite its flaws (a lack of romantic chemistry between Rudd and Fey for starters), I found it a reasonably appealing dramedy.
    Home video should be a lot kinder.

  5. cadavra says:

    Did Summit/Lionsgate pass on THE HOST? After all the dough they made on GAYTEENVAMPIREPALOOZA, why would they not jump on the next Meyer franchise unless they smelled trouble? Or is there another explanation?

  6. chris says:

    Maybe even they thought it was once too often to the well to tell another supernatural teen romance a plucky girl torn between two dudes?

  7. SamLowry says:

    What studio has ever stopped because they had covered that ground before? Isn’t that the point of sequels?

    Most likely explanation is they all thought it would suck. Sci-Fi, too much interior monologue, no superpowered fights…pretty much the opposite of Buffy, err, Twilight, I mean.

    Has anyone snatched up the rights to Rowling’s latest, which is still inexplicably being stocked in the YA section despite all the kinky sex?

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