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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by The Klady of Ooze

Not a lot that’s very interesting here.

Expect Oz’s “actual” to be more like $78m.

Dead Man Down’s opening weekend per-screen is worse than the second weekend do Jack The Giant Failure. Ouch.

Lincoln over $180m (though it was there before the weekend). Identity Thief will probably pass Argo’s gross in about 2 more weeks. Silver Linings Playbook also has a shot – a small one – of passing Argo as well.

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46 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by The Klady of Ooze”

  1. indiemarketer says:

    Movie Math – Christine Birch minus Stacey Snider = $5.3M

  2. Geoff says:

    Strong opening for Oz I don’t care what any one says…..not a fair comparison to Alice in Wonderland because that the first big film to really ride the post-Avatar 3D wave in early 2010.

    But interesting speculation here….how much MORE would this have opened to if they were able to get their original choices of Depp or Downey to play the title role?

    I actually think both actors have dilute their brand a little bit and that it would not have helped that much, at least domestically – Depp could be a big difference maker overseas.

  3. David Poland says:

    The issue with the opening is not comparative, but financial. The breakeven on the film is higher than Alice… not that Alice needed a billion to break even.

    Seems pretty sure that Oz will make money… but probably not much. “Much” would start around $800m worldwide.

  4. cadavra says:

    “Dilute their brand?” Outside of cameos and voice work, Depp and Downey have each done exactly one non-franchise, non-high-concept movie in the last five years (RUM PUNCH and SOLOIST, respectively). Their talent is undiminished, but their brand has already been diluted.

  5. anghus says:

    Was “The Tourist” really a high concept movie?

  6. Geoff says:

    Cadavra, I mean it’s become obvious that both actors are losing a LITTLE of their appeal and let’s face it…neither of them is getting younger, both would have a bit too old to really pull of this role.

    It obviously still depends on the movie….Depp probably brought more money to Dark Shadows than any one else did. And yes, The Avengers probably did not hurt Downey but….that was just a year ago. I’m not really sure if folks are chomping at the bit to see more Iron Man this soon – there’s no science to this, who knows?

    Bottom line is that I doubt either of them would have added maybe more than $10 million to this opening – it was about the “Oz” brand more than anything else and Disney behind it that drove the opening.

  7. Bulldog68 says:

    “I’m not really sure if folks are chomping at the bit to see more Iron Man this soon – there’s no science to this, who knows?”

    Nobody knows is exactly right. I’m going the other way on that one and thinking Ironman3 may do about $325m. That trailer is very effective. It’s the first post Marvel movie to feature an Avenger, and I think that movie has such good juice that Ironman3 is going to benefit from it.

    Also, it has two weeks to itself before Star Trek, which has one week to grab as much coin as possible before the clusterfuck of Hangover3 and Fast6, that target the exact same audience. It’s going to be a very interesting May and June.

  8. chris says:

    That “Oz” opening is about as good as could be hoped for, I’d say. None of those actors can open a movie and none of them — maybe save Kunis? — ever seems likely to be able to open a movie.

  9. cadavra says:

    Anghus: Depp + Jolie with a gun + sex + exotic locations? Yeah, I’d call that high concept.

    Geoff: You’re right, but my point was that both actors now seem to be doing nothing but franchise/remake films (including the upcoming LONE RANGER, THIN MAN, PERRY MASON, PINOCCHIO and NIGHT STALKER, as well as more PIRATES and AVENGERS), instead of doing an occasional picture that isn’t about selling toys and/or trying to cash in on baby-boomer nostalgia. They’re both too talented to be restricting themselves to tentpole paycheck roles.

  10. anghus says:

    Glad Somebody Up there Likes Me did well on one screen. I caught that at a festival and really liked it. Weird and nearly quirky to a fault, but a lot of fun.

  11. Lex says:

    Is it a remake of the old Newman boxer movie?

  12. David Poland says:

    Chris – Based on the hires, a 100% concept-driven sell. That is the measure.

    And dare I suggest that the problems on Oz pushed Disney to change directors on Cinderella (stupidly) in order to make the safest possible film.

  13. anghus says:

    No, it’s this.

  14. pat says:

    The Tourist is NOT “high concept”. The fact that one can describe it in such vague simple terms as “Depp+Jolie+gun+sex+Italy” makes it the very definition of LOW concept.

  15. jesse says:

    I’m actually confused about this — what definitions do you all understand to be in place for “high concept” and “low concept”?

    I always thought “high concept” was basically a logline for a movie that boils down to a simple, easy-to-understand sentence: “Die Hard on a bus.” “A prequel to The Wizard of Oz.” “Jaws on land.”

    But I’ve heard “high concept” bandied about recently to mean something more elaborate and inventive (or quasi-inventive) — some article, for example, described a bunch of more complex pilots ordered for the 2013-2014 season as “high concept” and they really seemed to mean concept-heavy, or complex-concept, or ambitious concept.

    And Pat calls The Tourist “low concept” because it can be described in vague and simple terms. Simple is a major part of high concept, though, as I’ve always understood it. What would make The Tourist “low concept” to me is the fact that it’s not easy to summarize in a single hooky sentence (because “Depp + Jolie + gun + sex +_Italy” isn’t really a sentence).

  16. jesse says:

    And Cadavra, while I agree with you in principle about Depp and Downey, ESPECIALLY Downey

    It’s a bit facetious to call “LONE RANGER, THIN MAN, PERRY MASON, PINOCCHIO and NIGHT STALKER, as well as more PIRATES and AVENGERS” all “upcoming.” Certainly the way that Depp and Downey have circled those projects shows what they’re looking for these days, but of those movies, let’s see:

    Lone Ranger is done, obviously, and of course Iron Man/Avengers are on their way.

    Thin Man has been talked about for years, and it still wasn’t in the announcement of Depp’s next few projects… which included Pfister’s directorial debut, hardly a franchise play.

    Perry Mason is somewhere in play for Downey, maybe, I assume, but it’s not like it has a start date.

    Pirates 5 is penciled in for 2015, but has no director or start date.

    Pinocchio and Night Stalker… pretty much just ideas, probably scripts, at this point.

    In fact, post-Pirates Depp has had PLENTY of non-franchise roles: The Tourist (if anything, that’s an old-fashioned star vehicle that doesn’t really work for reasons that have nothing to do with Depp), Public Enemies, The Rum Diaries, Dark Shadows (Burton/TV show, sure, but a pretty weird movie in lots of ways), Rango… and his next two are Black Mass for Levinson and Transcendence for Pfister. Even his “blockbuster” type role in Alice was an eccentric supporting performance, not a star vehicle.

    Downey, though — I agree with you on that, especially if he’s really dropping out of PTA’s Inherent Vice.

  17. Glamourboy says:

    I think Depp really hurt his brand with Dark Shadows. It was definitely a turning point where many people felt that Depp was just playing a weird character for the sake of being weird. And I get the sense that people are getting weary of his schtick. I think a lot of moviegoers who did go to see Dark Shadows (not that there were all that many of them), felt burned–it was such a terrible film and such a terrible performance–so I think this won’t bode well for The Lone Ranger.

  18. brack says:

    Basing the potential success of The Lone Ranger based on the perceived poor performance of Dark Shadows, which couldn’t be more different from one another, is a bit shortsighted. Dark Shadows had a miserable release date, and the Lone Ranger is a Spring release, so it’s pretty impossible to come to such a conclusion based on one movie that is in no way, shape or form like the next.

  19. leahnz says:

    unless there’s been some shift I’m not aware of, the term ‘high-concept’ is used to describe an idea with a clear, singular premise that can be easily/briefly summarised, while ‘low-concept’ traditionally refers to something more complex/rooted in realism and character, not easily summed up by the old ‘what if?’ device commonly used to define high-concept ideas — such as “what if a man with no short-term memory discovers who he is by telling his story from the end to the beginning using notes/tattoos on his own flesh?” (actually ‘memento’ might not be the very best example of ‘high-concept’ but for some reason it’s the first thing that came to mind)

  20. Glamourboy says:

    Both Dark Shadows and Lone Ranger are based on TV shows from eras gone by…and not TV shows that are well-known entities for much of the movie-going audiences. Both have had failed feature films previously produced. Both are banked heavily on Depp to pull out a costume from the trunk and try to make the lightning in the bottle from Pirates strike again.

    I think they have more in common than you think, brack.

  21. YancySkancy says:

    I’m sure there are people who have Depp-fatigue, but in general, I can’t imagine someone staying away from an epic Western adventure because they didn’t care for a horror comedy.

    I finally caught up with DARK SHADOWS, by the way, and found it most frustrating. I know cadavra says it’s not a comedy, but I’d say it’s at least half a comedy. It’s a shame, because that’s the weakest stuff. The first half hour or so, featuring Barnabas’ origin story, is played fairly straight and really pulled me in. If it had stayed in that Gothic horror romance mode, I think it would have been a much better film. The silly fish-out-of-water/the-70s-were-wacky comedy seemed to come from an entirely different movie.

  22. brack says:

    The Lone Ranger, while not huge now, is a much more appealing idea for a movie than something like Dark Shadows ever was. This is a family friendly film that had Johnny Depp acting like an Indian, and it looks like it could be fun. It has a lot more going for it. It was far less of a gamble than making a movie based on a theme park ride. Disney knew they lucked out. I mean, there’s no It’s a Small World After All or Space Mountain movies in the works, are there? The marketing for Dark Shadows wasn’t good (I had no interest in seeing it). Nothing about the trailer was interesting. You put Depp in an action movie that’s aimed at families, or kids, and he has a damn good track record.

    Will The Lone Ranger be as big as Pirates? No way, considering the studio is releasing it in Spring, even Disney knows this movie is a gamble

  23. scooterzz says:

    “I think Depp really hurt his brand with Dark Shadows”

    fwiw: i don’t agree…it certainly didn’t do him much good but it was a statement of loyalty to his muse/partner/pal tim burton… oh, and it made $230 m ww…so, no real loss…
    the guy started on ’21 jump street’…i doubt he’s mourning a career down-swing….

  24. anghus says:

    “there’s no It’s a Small World After All or Space Mountain movies in the works, are there?”

    There is a Tomorrowland movie in the works, a Haunted Mansion movie in the works, and i even heard someone mention a Thunder Mountain movie being discussed.

    There is not a corner of Disney’s empire that they don’t consider strip mining for cross promotion.

    It’s why im already sick of all these new Star Wars stories that hit the web every five minutes. Im sure Disney is considering a hundred different SW movies, tv shows, and kids shows. All the speculation is maddening.

    I’m reminded of the phrase “franchise wars” from Demolition Man. It looks like the next ten years of movies is going to be just that.

  25. movieman says:

    What’s all this talk about a spring release date for “The Long Ranger”?
    The last I heard, it was still opening July 3rd.
    Sounds like a vote of (distributer) confidence to me.
    Of course, “Wild, Wild West” opened around the same time…14, gulp, years ago.

  26. brack says:

    “Both have had failed feature films previously produced.”

    I know Johnny Depp is a great actor, but he’s still just one guy, right?

    By this logic, people won’t see After Earth because Seven Pounds wasn’t a big hit.

  27. anghus says:

    i could think of a number of reasons to avoid After Earth.

    Jaden Smith
    M Night Shyamalan….

    Ok, i can think of two.

  28. Glamourboy says:

    Brack…by, “Both had failed feature films previously produced”, I meant that there were already two Dark Shadows movies and one Lone Ranger movie (probably more pre-1970s)….proving that the world hasn’t been burning for another version of either story.

  29. YancySkancy says:

    The world is rarely “burning” for a particular film to be made. I don’t recall any public clamoring for the first PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN to be made, for instance. Other than comics fanboys, the general public wasn’t antsy for adaptations of IRON MAN or THOR or any number of eventually successful properties. The public doesn’t usually know what it wants until it gets it.

  30. Lex says:

    Depp should do an occasional throwback NICK OF TIME/ ASTRONAUT’S WIFE or SECRET WINDOW kinda deal. Used to enjoy when he’d whip out one of those, just making a fun pulpy (small) movie in a contemporary setting. Or another NINTH GATE. Obviously there’s no reason for him to do so whatsoever, but for the guy who’s mostly known for eccentric stuff, still think his best actual performance was in DONNIE BRASCO.

    Well, you know, except maybe PRIVATE RESORT.

    I can’t believe people are so hard on DARK SHADOWS. Tale of the tape:

    Chloe Moretz, Bella Heathcote, Eva Green… hell, I’ll even throw in Cougar Patrol props to Pfieffer and HBC. It was a fun movie. Actually kinda like ALICE IN WONDERLAND, too… minus the EMBARRASSING parts. (ie I just watch it for Wasikowska.)

  31. Geoff says:

    Agreed Lex – Donnie Brasco was his best performance….and probably right up there for Al Pacino as well.

  32. Edward Havens says:

    I may have gone to see Dead Man Down opening weekend had I known in advance it was from the director of the original Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, or had known in advance it starred the original Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, or had known about the film at all before it opened.

  33. Paul Doro says:

    ESPN and other networks airing sporting events ran a ton of TV spots for Dead Man Down. My wife had never seen Donnie Brasco so we watched it on Encore the other night. Such an excellent film. Depp and Pacino are incredible, and it makes me remember the days when I thought Michael Madsen might have a better career.

  34. YancySkancy says:

    Lex: I don’t know that I was so hard on DARK SHADOWS. I liked most everything, except that much of the attempted humor didn’t tickle my funny bone. Kind of hard to ignore that if you’re offering an opinion about a film that has a comedy component. No disagreement about the variety of lovely ladies on board though.

  35. The Big Perm says:

    Lex, I’d say Depp doing Dark Shadows IS sort of a Nick of Time/Secret Window type of movie. I can’t believe when people put that into some kind of franchise/blockbuster mold that they criticise Depp for doing. Like that movie was going to be a huge hit, it looked weird as fuck. That’s still the Depp of old, doing offbeat movies and weirdo roles. The only difference between it and Arizona Dreams is that now he’s doing it in monster makeup, because he can. Anyone think he didn’t want to be doing this same shit in the 90s?

  36. leahnz says:

    someone made a good point last time the whole weirdo-depp vs ‘real-world’-depp debate came up (maybe it was Geoff or bulldog, I can’t remember) and I was criticising him for being a big freak all the time and lamenting his seemingly long gone donnie brasco days, but to be fair Johnny is still doing smaller, more serious (or at least reality-based) roles in between his ‘kabuki’ depp stuff – like ‘the tourist’ and ‘rum diary’ and dillinger in PE in the last 5 yrs or so – but they’re not big movies and haven’t tended to do well cash money-wise so perhaps they get forgotten while his big freak roles seem to stick in your head.

  37. The Big Perm says:

    People just tend to remember whatever gets them the most mad…if you hate wacky Depp, you don’t think about the other stuff he does. A lot of his more regular roles were bombs back in the day too. I love what Depp is doing, look at the weirdness he forces on mainstream movies. He’s being Vincent Price, who today would get shit on for always playing a creepy villain, but since that happened many years ago we love him for it.

  38. anghus says:

    You know what a poor choice for Oz was?

    Danny Elfman.

    You had a movie that basically felt just like Alice in Wonderland. It had the same visual palette. It sounded exactly the same. There’s very little differentiating the two. Check out this promo image for AIW.

    Then check out the one for Oz.

    I realize that it’s no coincidence that the two were marketed to be so similar. AIW made a lot of money. But damn, it looks like Raimi is swinging on Burton’s nuts.

  39. cadavra says:

    Wow, lots of catching up to do!

    “Johnny Depp goes to Italy and gets seduced by gun-toting spy Angelina Jolie.” There. Now it’s a sentence.

    I understand that not all of those announced projects may get made. But the mere fact that D&D allowed themselves to be attached to those titles certainly smells of paycheck grabbing.

    Given that DARK SHADOWS was a textbook example of how to totally and utterly fuck up marketing and distribution, the fact that it did $80m/$250m is actually a minor miracle. And if Warners didn’t think it was a franchise, why would they release it in mid-May in Real IMAX?

    Yes, there is humor in DS, but on balance it’s not a comedy. Lots of very heavy dramas have comedy in them, so why should a horror film be any different? At that, most of the humor in DS derives from the fish-out-of-water situation, which was done specifically to address a long-standing gripe of fans of the TV series and HOUSE OF DS: that Barnabas awakes after nearly 200 years and isn’t the least bit flummoxed by the presence of automobiles, telephones, electric lights, et al, none of which existed in the 18th Century.

    One last thing: HOUSE OF DARK SHADOWS was not only not a flop, it was MGM’s biggest profit-earner of 1970, a year that saw them bleeding money from the runaway production of RYAN’S DAUGHTER (which was big, but not big enough), and a lot of costly duds, including BREWSTER McCLOUD, ALEX IN WONDERLAND and NO BLADE OF GRASS.

  40. Palermo says:

    “But damn, it looks like Raimi is swinging on Burton’s nuts.”

    They were both just directors-for-hire on Disney properties. OZ seems designed to repeat the ALICE formula.

    And DARK SHADOWS, while unfocused, is better than its rep. It’s definitely predominantly a comedy. It starts as family satire, and the early scenes are actually quite beautifully shot. If it had kept on that track the whole way through it might have been great.

  41. YancySkancy says:

    cad: My issue with the humor in DARK SHADOWS wasn’t that it was there, but that it was kinda lame (IMO). I think there’s also an issue of balance. BRIDE OF FRANKENSTEIN did it right, but to me the comedy in DS was highlighted often enough to distract from the film’s stronger aspects.

  42. The Big Perm says:

    Wait, a guy getting seduced by a woman with a gun is not considered high concept? Well shit then, every single thriller and film noir is high concept. That’s not high concept, that’s a general, completely generic idea for a movie that could be about anything. If you didn’t know what movie was referencing, could you name it based on that description? Fuck no.

    Here are actual high concepts, and I don’t have to name the movie because the concept tells you EXACTLY what it is.

    A man wakes up to the same day every single day, and he can’t get out of the time loop.

    Three shlubs open up a new business, where they catch ghosts.

    These people are stuck on a bus, and if it slows down to under 50, it blows up.

    That’s actual high concept.

  43. Bulldog68 says:

    @Leahnz. It’s up to 6 films now with him and Helena Bonham Carter being all weird. Enough.

  44. anghus says:

    “They were both just directors-for-hire on Disney properties. OZ seems designed to repeat the ALICE formula.”

    Right. However, Burton created the template which Raimi then followed, hence the nut swinging.

    I mean, the visuals, the marketing, the score….

    It feels like anyone could have directed this. What did Raimi really bring to the table other than painfully obvious Army of Darkness comparisons and a Bruce Campbell cameo.

    The more i dwell on it, the more sad it seems. This is what Raimi does now? Bad Tim Burton inspired clones?

  45. leahnz says:

    ha bulldog, yeah what is the dealio with depp and HBC, is there some deep yearning by some in positions of power to see those two doing kabuki theatre together on screen that i just don’t get? I’d say it was burton getting his jollies seeing his missus weird it up with his muse, but now verbinski’s getting in on the act…i don’t get it, i’m stumped.

  46. brack says:

    Oz is so much better than AIWL that’s it’s not even funny. A very entertaining film, even though there are zero surprises. But who cares?

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