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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

3-Day Estimates by Hungover Klady 6

Ah, what a pleasure it is to return to LA mid-Memorial Day Weekend, blissfully ignorant of which franchise sequel is in what position.

The big number on Fast & Furious 6 shouldn’t be too surprising. It’s a minor step above the numbers for the last film—which were a shocking leap—but moving to Memorial Day is going to give the Universal franchise a substantially stronger Sunday number as well as a solid Monday number, so good choices and a strong positive vote for the F&F5. This film will be a big hit regardless, but all eyes now go to the international number to see if there is any growth there.

The Hangover franchise is over, by choice. But no one is going to be begging for more anytime soon either. The 3rd in the series is off a whopping 41% (estimated) off of its 3-day opening for Hang 2. (No wonder talent was being “difficult” about press and director Todd Phillips punked out of his 3rd DP/30 appearance for the series.) The second film in the series, though roundly smacked by the media, was pretty close on the domestic side, but international kicked ass, with a roughly 50% increase in the gross. With the now-projectable $130m domestic gross this time out, international with be the focus once again, though this time, profitability, not just f-you money, will actually be the question. Even if the international drops by half—and I am not saying it will—the film should be slightly profitable. If it drops by, say, 25%, it will be close to $400m worldwide and very profitable. So, ego is really the public issue on this one, not much else. It has been a massive success for all involved and even this restrained end could still be more profitable than a lot of other summer movies this year.

Star Trek: Into Darkness is another interesting one. I don’t see it matching the domestic box office of the first film, even with the 3D bump. It will be about $100m behind after tomorrow and both After Earth and Man of Steel are 2 of the next 3 weekends… and then the real summer action starts. But just a bit behind the first reboot’s foreign total, there are a lot of big markets to come for the film internationally. So even if domestic ends $40m behind the first JJ Trek, it could well turn out that this film’s worldwide total is higher. The question of whether that is a good investment will remain. This film won’t get the positive box office spin of the first, but it won’t likely get placed in the “loser” columns either.

Epic is a slow starter for Fox. but it isn’t the domestic market that has made Fox’s animation business a cash cow in the last decade. it’s foreign. So no point in beating this one to death before foreign numbers are crunchable.

The Great Gatsby is now the biggest Baz Luhrmann grosser domestically… by double. Foreign is just starting, but $200m is pretty much assured.

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108 Responses to “3-Day Estimates by Hungover Klady 6”

  1. movieman says:

    I’m no gear head but I like good trash as much as anyone, and “F&F6” ain’t it.
    It’s ineptly edited, virtually impossible to follow on even the most rudimentary “plot” level, atrociously acted (except for Luke Evans who gives the only decent performance) and staggeringly, stunningly dull.
    I go into every “F&F” hoping to have as good a time as everyone else seems to be having w/ this franchise, but to little avail. The only installment that didn’t put me to sleep was the Diesel-less John Singleton entry (which also had the best title).
    P.S.= Why cast Paul Walker clone Evans if you’re not going to do anything w/ their uncanny physical resemblance? Dumb.

  2. BoulderKid says:

    movieman I too sort of like 2Fast2Furious more than the consensus. There was something amusing about the combination of Cole Hauser’s mugging and Walker being forced to carry the entire film. I’m also a sucker for any crime film set in Miami.

  3. js partisan says:

    Movieman, sorry, that’s last week’s discussion about Star Trek Into Khan’s Asshole. Fast Six is a movie that demonstrates why Justin Lin needs to get bigger gigs. He’s a tentpole director and needs to be treated that way.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Luke Evans more resembles James McAvoy than Paul Walker in my book. While this still classifies as dumb fun for me, I had no difficulty with the plot, and the fight scenes at the train station was well done. The final scene with the big ass plane was a bit convoluted but all in all, I liked it.

    Now for dumb resemblance casting see John Carter. I give you Dominic West and James Purefoy. Fuck that was confusing.

  5. chris says:

    Hmmm, I thought Evans was the least interesting performer in the movie. (Cumberbatch would have knocked that out of the park, but what bad guy wouldn’t he be great as?) Also, didn’t they “do something” with the resemblance? Ludacris’ whole riff about how each of the F/F6 good guys matches up with one of the bad guys was based on just that premise, was it not?

  6. movieman says:

    Also, didn’t they “do something” with the resemblance?

    I think that was a more general thing, Chris.
    I was kind of hoping there would have been an “evil twin” subplot w/ Evans infiltrating Diesel’s gang by pretending to be Walker, lol.

  7. palmtree says:

    I’m rooting for Uni. Other then Et and Jurassic Park they don’t have a 300 grosser. F6 is a longshot for 300, but it’ll be close.

  8. brack says:

    Star Trek: Into Darkness’ domestic take is on par with what could have been expected due to the competition with everything coming out this weekend, and a lot of competition with the behemoth known as Iron Man 3.

    I liked The Hangover enough, but not really enough to see the sequel at the theaters. I have no desire to see this one anytime soon.

    The Fast and Furious franchise is an amazing story. Regardless of what people think of the quality of these movies, they are definitely delivering to an eager audience. Well done.

    Looking forward to Before Midnight expanding (that’s the plan, right?).

  9. John says:

    Dave- I think you have a typo on your STAR TREK remark. Through 11 days the difference between Trek 09 and STID is only 7.5 domestically. Even with the insane competition, they are running neck and neck.

  10. movieman says:

    I’m clearly in a minority on this blog having (vastly) preferred “Hangover 3” (hell, even “Epic”) to “FF6.”
    My relationship with the Todd Phillips (I almost said “Todd Haynes,” lol) trilogy is a peculiar one.
    I actively despised the ’09 original–it even made my 10-worst list that
    year–in which I loathed every single member of the Wolf Pack, and found the whole thing aggressively mean-spirited and inordinately depressing.
    But, strangely enough, I found both sequels fairly tolerable.
    The trick was to stop thinking of them as comedies altogether; not hard to do since none of the “Hangover”s have made me laugh all that much. “2” and “3” are really just well-tooled genre films, and it’s in that spirit that I (mildly) enjoyed them.
    For my money, they’re also better made genre films than any of the Justin Lin-directed “F&F”s.
    Lin’s only real achievement w/ “F&F” (besides the financial one for Universal) has been to strip all vestiges of realism from the franchise. They’re now as fantastical as your typical Marvel Comic Books extravaganza.
    Not to mention overproduced, overwrought and criminally, punishingly overlong.

  11. Dr Wally Rises says:

    F&F6 doesn’t come within a mile of the magnificent Fast Five, still had fun though – by now this franchise is the Hobbs show. Weird how a character introduced in the fifth film of a franchise turns out to be it’s defining one – it might also be Dwayne Johnson’s signature role. The numbering of the F&F franchise now makes no sense at all if we are to assume that the last three efforts are in fact prequels to Tokyo Drift. And doesn’t the credits cookie (SPOILER) mean that Lucas Black simply has to return for the seventh one?

  12. Jay Shooke says:

    Anyone that doesn’t like FAST FIVE is dead inside. The Rock is a national treasure.

  13. Bulldog68 says:

    Movieman, I’m sure there were more but two major stunts come to mind, one on the bridge by Vin, and the other by The Rock, that did not involve cars, just superhuman feats of strength, that I actually said out loud to my movie buddy, “this is where they say, I am Iron Man.”

    They are overproduced, that’s for sure, but it seems that people are digging this evolution. It literally went from the little engine that could to being one of the big boys that other big boys are respecting. There still is no guarantee that the next Thor, Cpt America, Wolverine, will match it’s domestic box office which seems to be a lock for $250m at this point. Unless it enters free fall, it will top Star Trek.

    Males of course love it. Females love it too because their gender is well represented and not in token Michael Bay like style representation. It boasts a truly mixed cast that seems like they would be together in real life, and most importantly, people root for them. F&F is a great Hollywood success story.

    And also, it was very brave of the studio to tinker with the formula that the made the first few a success and completely reinvent the franchise. From thinking of going straight to DVD to $200m+ grosses, that has to be applauded on some level. And the little nugget at the end of F&F6 guarantees that people will show up for F&F7.

    See you next summer.

  14. Etguild2 says:

    Carano vs Rodriguez is the best time lesbians have had in a Hollywood release since “Bloodrayne.”;)

    Movieman, don’t you think Todd Phillips had the knives out for fans of the first two in this one?

    And yeah, funny that Universal’s top two openings of all time are now F&F movies. The studio actually has a chance of grabbing the domestic box office title this year, something I don’t believe it’s ever accomplished, definitely not in the last 30 years.

    Also…SPOILERS…….I’m glad they wrapped up Han’s role at the end of this one, establishing that TOKYO DRIFT took place after F&F6 but even though this franchise isn’t supposed to be taken seriously, good luck explaining how Lil Bow Wow and Lucas Black aged 10 years in a few months next year. And apparently, Tokyo doesn’t have access to cars made after 2005…

  15. Bulldog68 says:

    All they need now is to sign a deal with Paramount and Tom Cruise and merge this with Top Gun for the Top Fast & Furious Gun for release in summer 2015.

  16. movieman says:

    Et- Some said pretty much the same thing about #2 when it was released.
    That it was a giant FU to those who loved the original because it essentially recycled the same plot in a different setting–i.e., “Those dumb yahoos won’t even realize we just remade the same damn movie!”
    Not having been a fan of “Hangover 1,” I’m probably not the best person to answer that question, though.

  17. leahnz says:

    Uh, fwiw the ‘Michelle and Gina are tough chicks so they must be lesbians’ thing is pretty tired and cliché; i know michelle a little and she’s not a lesbian (she commented to having had relationships with both sexes in the past and has said time and time again that she’s not a lesbian, but hey she must be lying because some men are more comfortable with the idea that non-girly girl chicks can’t be intimate with men) – and last I heard Gina and Henry Cavill were hot and heavy, but that must be fake because if she can kick your ass she can’t have sex with dudes, right?

  18. Etguild2 says:

    leahnz…I was saying, and somewhat joking, that a Rodriguez /Carano fight is a dream come true for gay women in the audience, not commenting on either’s sexual orientation, which is none of anyone’s business. Both actresses have strong followings among lesbians.

    For gay men it would be the equivalent of something completely crazy like Channing Tatum, Alex Pettyfer, Matthew McConaughey, Joe Mangienello and Matt Bomer as strippers on stage together. Or Zac Efron fighting, say, Wentworth Miller.

  19. Jermsguy says:

    “Why does etguild2 hate me?” – Kevin Nash

  20. matt says:

    Just realized Meet the Croods and Identity Thief are currently the #3 and #5 top grossers of 2013 domestically… definitely took me by surprise.

    The Before Midnight numbers look good. Anyone have any analysis on that film’s box office?

  21. Brenton77 says:

    I don’t really understand how BEFORE MIDNIGHT can have twice the per-screen average of FURIOUS 6. Is BM playing in gigantic 2000 seat theaters, while F6 is this enormous record-breaking hit yet somehow only selling half its seats?

  22. Bulldog68 says:

    The Croods, not so much. It had the playing field all to itself for weeks. Identity Thief, yes. No one expected this to be a $100m plus movie.

  23. Etguild2 says:

    “I don’t really understand how BEFORE MIDNIGHT can have twice the per-screen average of FURIOUS 6.”

    Think of it like this. There are 5 movie theaters playing BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN LA and NYC. There are 200 theaters playing FAST in the NYC and LA metro areas (might be low). So let’s say for ever person who wants to see BEFORE MIDNIGHT in NY and LA, 20 people want to see FAST AND FURIOUS. There’s your double per theater gross…which also can translate across the nation to more rural areas and bigger suburban multiplexes.

    And $55,000 isn’t actually a high location gross when you take into account the high prices where it’s playing…$14 a ticket is average probably. That means each theater is seeing 1,200 people a day…high, but places like Angelika can easily accommodate that, especially with 17 (!) screenings a day. It also means FAST’s grosses are lowered by the cheaper ticket prices outside of the big cities.

  24. Jermsguy says:

    Let’s hear it for Tim Allen, Kevin Pollak and JK Simmons in 3 Geezers!, with a whopping $67 per-screen average.

    Tracking for this weekend:
    After Earth – $37 million
    Now You See Me – $22 million

    June 7
    The Purge – $19 million
    The Internship – $15 million

  25. Paul Doro says:

    What did After Earth cost to make? It looks weak and feels like a bomb, though I guess you can’t underestimate the draw of Will Smith, even if Jaden is clearly the lead. I had never heard of 3 Geezers before. Yikes.

  26. Benett says:

    If the Internship makes less than The Purge, then we are talking a bomb of The Watch level. I personally loved the Wedding Crashers, but the trailer is pretty dull for a comedy…

    I’m a little surprised that After Earth is not getting a bigger push. Granted I do not watch much real time TV, especially this time of year, but for a big budget Will Smith film, it seems weirdly quiet for a release in a few days.

    Does anyone know if After Earth is IMAX? I’m curious if it will be bumping Star Trek out of the Imax screen by my house. AKA get my butt to the theater before Friday.

    I’m usually anti-fake Imax, but the sound design of the first Star Trek was amazing in Imax. Has anyone seen Star Trek in Imax and is it worth rushing out to see it in Imax before it leaves?

    Thanks

  27. jesse says:

    WOW. Now You See Me is really tracking at $22 million? That’s impressive to me. I mean, I want to see it, probably more than I want to see After Earth (though I’m curious about that too). But once all of May became big and After Earth moved up into the 5/31 slot with it, I figured it was lost (back when only Now You See Me made the move, I thought it might do OK). If it winds up actually doing 22 and legging out to even just 60 or so, you gotta figure that’s a win for Summit, right? Or was that movie expensive?

    After Earth feels like classic early-aughts Tom Cruise — not in terms of how good it will be, but in that quietly-make-$110 million-because-of-its-star way. Actually, for all of the brickbats, M. Night has been pretty dependable with grosses in that range. Obviously only Signs and Sixth Sense crested the $200 million mark, but if you look back on his resume, only Lady in the Water is an outright flop. The Village alienated people… did 100+ anyway. Airbender was awful… did 100+. Even The Happening opened, and then got to 60.

    That doesn’t mean his rep hasn’t been damaged… but an After Earth that makes less than 100 would actually be well below his career average.

    Weird that The Internship isn’t on track to do better, though it does have a lackluster, too-late, PG-13 kind of feel to it. But as that gets closer to release, it has to do at least $20 million, right? Bare minimum?

    So weird to me that Vaughn’s awful sitcom movies like Four Christmases and Couples Retreat can not only open, but hold on pretty well. Then when he does something that at least looks a little less soul-deadening like The Watch (which is a mess but I at least laughed a fair amount; more than I can say for Christmases or Couples), or reteaming with Owen Wilson… people lose interest. By this metric, that Delivery Man movie in the fall will make 100+ and his reteaming with Wilson will do like 40 or 50. Weird.

  28. jesse says:

    Bennett, I saw Star Trek in IMAX… but at a real IMAX screen. It looked spectacular and I put up with the 3D for it. I can’t speak to whether it’s worthwhile on a fauxMAX, since those have always struck me as a slight upgrade to the proverbial Nicest Auditorium at the Multiplex. Then again, if one of them replaced the Nicest Auditorium at your local multiplex, maybe it would be worth it.

    After Earth is doing IMAX but I would guess it’s fauxMAX only. It’s always tricky to figure out what the Real IMAX movies are going to be for the summer. Avengers didn’t do it last year, but this year Iron Man 3 did. Then Star Trek, and then I think at least the Manhattan IMAX is keeping Trek until Man of Steel. Then it seems like they’re doing Pacific Rim (which really should’ve been shot at least in part with IMAX cameras, right? Though it looks like they’re at least doing an Oblivion/Skyfall style opening-up to make better use of the full screen). And not sure what the next Real IMAX-available movie after that will be.

  29. anghus says:

    Fake Imax?
    faux Imax?

    come on people.

    the phrase is

    lieMax.

  30. Paul Doro says:

    I don’t really remember the advertising for Airbender. Is this the first M. Night movie that doesn’t mention his name in the promos? I saw quite a few in the last couple days but none mention his name. I haven’t seen Oblivion, but it does seem awfully similar, at least on the surface. I wonder if general audiences get that vibe at all.

    $20M+ does seem like a big win for Now You See Me. People must love them some Eisenberg/Harrelson.

  31. Bennett says:

    Yeah 20M would be great for Now You See Me… I would rather see that than After Earth. I was hearing that the cost was 80-100M, I wonder if that was true. I still think the studios made a mistake by not release a big movie that first weekend of April, once The Heat left that slot.

    It seems like After Earth should open in early August, when all the schools are out. I bet it will play well with kids, but it will be losing screens when late June big hitters(Man of Steel, Monsters U, Whitehouse Down, and The Heat).

    I’ve seen more pubilicity for Grown Ups 2(which looks as god awful as the first) than either White House Down or After Earth….Hey Sony….what’s up with that.

  32. Paul Doro says:

    I have no idea how reliable they are, but The Numbers estimates After Earth’s budget as $130 million and Now You See Me as $70 million. Seems like a lot for the latter.

  33. Gus says:

    I think After Earth is going to be fine. Marketing and concept is right in the Will Smith wheelhouse, and he’s been sure-fire for films of this style and scale.

    I am amazed, though, completely amazed at Iron Man 3’s business… It’s going to wind up doing TWICE the business of the sequel and a stone’s throw from the Avenger’s international number. How can that be? It’s just amazing to me that there was that much room for growth in that franchise, regardless of the Avengers’ release.

  34. Etguild2 says:

    “What did After Earth cost to make?”

    Indiewire reports the cost at $130 million. 80-100 seems low. “After Earth” would be fine at $37 million opening. “Now You See Me” would be meh at $20 million, with reports that it cost $70 million, and probably limited international appeal.

    EDIT:Paul Doro beat me to it.

    “Hey Sony….what’s up with that.”

    I’d like to know what’s up with Sony in general. Counting the ZD30 expansion, they’ve released 3 movies in the first 17 weeks of the year. They now have 12 films slated for the next 21 weeks, with many scheduled for back-to-back weekends. Wtf?

    “It’s going to wind up doing TWICE the business of the sequel and a stone’s throw from the Avenger’s international number. How can that be?”

    After SKYFALL, anything seems possible.

  35. Paul Doro says:

    Not counting serious fare like Seven Pounds, Pursuit of Happyness and Ali, the last Smith movie to open with less than $40 million is Wild Wild West. Would $37 million really be a solid opening for After Earth? I suppose he isn’t the lead, so that needs to be considered, but it still seems like an underwhelming number.

  36. chris says:

    Maybe one reason Sony is playing “Another Earth” quiet is that it turns out it’s not a Will Smith movie at all but a Jaden Smith movie?

  37. hcat says:

    Sort of a shame that F&F could get to 95 but not reach the triple digit mark. An entire decade after the threshold was breached and Uni just can’t seem to get one over the hump. Just thinking it might be a point of pride even though they always do better with smaller films (Bridemaids, Ted) than with their percieved blockbusters (Battleship, Cowboys).

    And on the smaller end, Fraces Ha seems like a monster success for IFC.

  38. chris says:

    On the middle end, I wonder if “Mud” can hang on to be a “Midnight in Paris”-style earner?

  39. brack says:

    The lieMax at my local AMC is plenty big. Star Trek looked pretty good in 3d for the most part (didn’t look so good in some close ups though). The sound is always my biggest reason for seeing something on that screen. The Sony 4k theater nearby has great picture and sound too.

  40. palmtree says:

    Mojo isn’t offering any analysis for last weekend’s BO. What’s going on over there?

  41. MarkVH says:

    Question for those disappointed in the new season of Arrested Development (and I haven’t seen it, so I can’t say one way or the other) – could a change-up in directorial talent be a reason for the dip in quality?

    The original series had episodes directed by Paul Feig, Jay Chandrasekar, Greg Mottola and others, whereas this season had only two directors, Hurwitz and Troy Miller, neither of whom had ever directed an episode before. Could that be a cause of the tonal problems?

    Again, haven’t seen, just throwing it out there.

  42. Bulldog68 says:

    “Not counting serious fare like Seven Pounds, Pursuit of Happyness and Ali, the last Smith movie to open with less than $40 million is Wild Wild West. Would $37 million really be a solid opening for After Earth? I suppose he isn’t the lead, so that needs to be considered, but it still seems like an underwhelming number.”

    Consider that Jaden Smith opened Karate Kid to $55m, albeit with the help of Jackie Chan, and $37 is a low estimate.

    It’s weird though, a Will Smith summer movie seems like the small fish in the big pond when you have Iron Man, Man of Steel, Pacific Rim, Star Trek, F&F and Hangover all thrown in. Thus far I see only Hangover as the major disappointment, as Star Trek 2 will end in the vicinity of Star Trek 1. While not a comparative home run, it’s still a success.

    Back to After Earth, I think anything less than $50m opening weekend will be considered a disappointment. And if fails to have legs well it will be Will Smith’s 1st stumble in years. Men In Black 3 opened last year north of $50m and still legged it out to $179m. Not too bad.

  43. hcat says:

    palmtree, check the last analysis, I think they mention they are taking a few weeks to travel or something.

  44. Mike says:

    Mark, I thought the AVClub review did a nice job of explaining how the expanded episode length (32 minutes instead of 22) and lack of the full cast all together really created most of the problems. Still an enjoyable sitcom, though.

  45. MarkVH says:

    Yeah, it’s a generalization, but increased episode length tends to be murder for half-hour sitcoms (see also: The Office).

  46. chris says:

    Another thing that speaks ill of “After Earth” is that Smith used to be the guy who owned July 4 weekend, which he often spoke about. And Sony knew “After Earth” couldn’t cut it then.

  47. Mike says:

    I think Arrested Development has hit the midlife of a sitcom, where it’s not as funny or interesting as it used to be, and it’s somewhat reliant on the goodwill of its audience, but is still amusing and entertaining. It’ll be interesting to see if it gets another season, and if so, what it evolves into.

  48. Bennett says:

    If Jayden Smith really is the lead, then it should open in early August when school is out. I thought that Now You See Me was pretty expensive by Summit/Lionsgate standards. I hope it’s good, but I’m afraid that it could get lost.

  49. Etguild2 says:

    Not a great sign for either Friday release that they’re still embargoed 48 hours before opening. “Now You See Me” opens at 7PM on Thursday, and “After Earth” at 9PM.

  50. BoulderKid says:

    “After Earth” looks really derivative and I’m always skeptical of tentpole films that don’t show their trailers heavily theatrically. I think “Fast 6” will really cut in to Smith’s core audience too.

    20m would be great for “Now You See Me”. This is a “Lucky Number Slevin” type deal where the marketing has been so incomprehensible that it’s hard to even tell what the film’s about. Seems like two hours of familiar actors in fedoras.

  51. KrazyEyes says:

    “It’ll be interesting to see if it [Arrested Development ] gets another season, and if so, what it evolves into.”

    Hasn’t Netflix already confirmed that this season of AD is a one-and-done type deal? Something about never being able to get the cast back together again.

    I didn’t even know that M. Night was directing After Earth and no I can safely miss it. For me he’s one of the worst directors working in Hollywood. Completely heavy-handed, humorless, and nails on a chalkboard bad.

  52. Bulldog68 says:

    “I didn’t even know that M. Night was directing After Earth and no I can safely miss it. For me he’s one of the worst directors working in Hollywood. Completely heavy-handed, humorless, and nails on a chalkboard bad.”

    Uhh no. I can watch The Sixth Sense over and over again. And Unbreakable is a true gem. One of the best comic book movies ever made. Signs is melodramatic but entertaining, and yes, I’m in the minority but I liked Lady in the Water. I understand why most didn’t however.

    The Last Airbender was forgettable. The Village was boring and The Happening was truly bad,but like JJ Abrams, he’s one of those directors that get piled on because of their successes.

    The guy tells unique stories. Sometimes they are uniquely good and sometimes they are uniquely bad. It’s only May 28th and we’ve had two threequels, a new sequel that is in actuality a TV spin off and the 10th iteration, and a 6th installment of a street racing franchise in 12 years. Yes, I saw all of them. But I gotta give the original properties a fighting chance too. At least I have a chance to see something I haven’t seen before.

    And here’s what I’m hoping. The After Earth trailers have not been spectacular. Lets hope they saved the best stuff for the movie.

  53. palmtree says:

    Thanks, hcat.

  54. anghus says:

    RE: Arrested Development.

    Some creative types flourish under the network pressure to create a mainstream success. When the network leash is removed and the creators are given license to go crazy, you wind up with something that has the spirit of the original but feels like it could use some pruning. That’s the consequence of resurrecting a show. Some ten years later, it’s never going to be the same. It’s like a greatest hits tour by a band who broke up in their prime. They got back together and cashed the check, but it’s never going to be as good as it was. It’s a gift horse, which is fine as long as you don’t start probing it’s mouth… or other orifices.

    Re: After Earth

    I can’t shake this headline i read on Reddit.

    “After Earth is, in my opinion, a movie strongly influenced by Scientology”

    That’s going to make it an interesting viewing experience.

  55. Etguild2 says:

    Yikes. Doesn’t Will Smith know that that would be the equivalent of driving a stake through his son’s career?

  56. Paul Doro says:

    Signs is on AMC all the time. I watched it again not too long and it doesn’t hold up well. I wasn’t all that crazy about it in the first place. Unbreakable is OK but never did much for me either. The less said about The Village, Lady in the Water and The Happening, the better. Haven’t seen Airbender. Sixth Sense is good but that was a long time ago. This is a filmmaker way past his prime. Maybe the TV project will be good for him.

    I’ve watched 4 episodes of Arrested Development 2013 and so far, so good. Sure every episode has a few misfires, but that is true of the original run as well. I love these characters and it’s a joy to spend some time with them again. Good times.

  57. Mike says:

    I read a few reports that said Netflix might be willing to try a season 5 of Arrested Development or even the long talked about movie. But it all depends on whether the cast and creators want to do it again with the same constraints. So, I don’t think it’s been decided yet.

  58. anghus says:

    It will be weird if they dont do another season or a movie because it ends in a very weird place.

  59. Jermsguy says:

    Still no AE or NYSM reviews? Wow.

  60. Paul Doro says:

    Doesn’t seem to bode well. Both are screening tonight in Milwaukee.

  61. YancySkancy says:

    I say let Night be Night. Odds are the results will be iffy, but idiosyncratic in a potentially fun way. If he’s just a gun for hire on AFTER EARTH, I fear it may just be another run-of-the-mill sci-fi adventure. Other than THE SIXTH SENSE, I think my favorite Night film is the much-maligned LADY IN THE WATER, which apparently only me and Bulldog (and my gf) liked. It’s just so oddball and personal. And yeah, THE HAPPENING was a mess, but never boring, and it had some hilarious moments (just not sure how intentional they were).

  62. SamLowry says:

    “but like JJ Abrams, he’s one of those directors that get piled on because of their successes.”

    They got piled on because their failures were so amazingly horrible, and yet producers were still willing to give them money to keep on going because there were just enough dolts out there to justify it.

    Odd that Warner was bright enough to sniff out Abrams’ ineptitude concerning Superman but Paramount didn’t notice he was a Star Wars guy merely using Trek as a stepping stone in his career.

  63. Etguild2 says:

    LADY IN THE WATER is the film in which M. Night Shyamalan plays a writer whose work is so masterful, it influences the president and saves the world right? Normally I like it when crazy-minded people like Richard Kelly, Tom Tykwer, Darren Aronofsky or the Wachowskis get handed millions of dollars to make the movie that they want, no matter how insane… but that was too much for me. Either Shyamalan’s ego is so large as to be combustible, or he was trolling his own movie.

  64. berg says:

    Lady In The Water power …. super rich compositions, intricate yet bizarre relationships of a group of people living in an apartment complex, and of course the critic … I liked it a lot, saw it twice

  65. LexG says:

    Agree. Lady in the Water is solid. Beautiful movie.

    Actually was more or less OK with Airbender. One of those things that gets tons and tons shit, but is it really any better or worse than any bland, steel-colored, godawful anonymous Marvel movie? It’s all the same generic nonsense, at least Airbender had scope, it looked ENORMOUS.

    Just seems like a lot of opinions on Shyamalan are herd mentality groupthink. At least he’s earnest. Irony is the enemy of everything.

  66. bulldog68 says:

    I’m all in for a Lady in the Water 2. Make it for under $40m and show us the world that she came from.

  67. Etguild2 says:

    “Just seems like a lot of opinions on Shyamalan are herd mentality groupthink. At least he’s earnest. Irony is the enemy of everything.”

    I think there’s a difference between earnestness and self-importance/humorlessness, and Shyamalan tipped the scales after “The Village’s” (which I didn’t mind at all) failure. The creation of a genius writer character, played by himself, got in the way of his story for me and a lot of others. Then, it seems like he got angrier and more self-serious with “The Happening,” one of my favorite comedies of 2008. In the process, it seems like he forgot how to write human dialogue, or maybe he loves his daughter so much, he let her write his movies after “Lady in the Water.” I liked “Devil.” Maybe he can stick to producing/story writing, or maybe he’ll find his footing again in TV.

  68. scooterzz says:

    has everyone forgotten the michael bamberger book of a few years ago? i’m betting that there will never be a ‘lady in the water 2’….

  69. bulldog68 says:

    Honest query Scoot, please explain.

  70. Ray Pride says:

    The book is “The Man Who Heard Voices: Or, How M. Night Shyamalan Risked His Career on a Fairy Tale.”

    A bit from Janet Maslin’s scathing NYT review: “‘The Man Who Heard Voices’ isn’t really the filmmaker’s fault. His only serious misstep was allowing it to happen. It was Mr. Bamberger who met the auteur at a dinner party (“Night’s shirt was half open — Tom Jones in his prime”), became awestruck (“What kind of power could he have over me?”) and started taking deeply embarrassing notes.

    How could Mr. Shyamalan have known that his Boswell would place him in a biblical light? The book finds some relevance for Night (as Mr. Bamberger calls him) in the fact that the word night, like the word day, shows up early in the Book of Genesis. It also describes an actress in Night’s presence as “like Moses before the burning bush.”

    As is the case anytime Hollywood lets its hair down, this account exposes deep fault lines of privilege, power and class. Consider the story of Paula, who was Night’s assistant when he was ready to spring his “Lady in the Water” screenplay upon the Walt Disney Company. Among Paula’s virtues were the ability to make hot chocolate exactly the way Night likes it and to fly cross-country without going to the bathroom. The screenplay was far too important to be left unattended.

    Paula “never confused her workaday world with the lives of the rich and superrich with whom she was in daily contact,” Mr. Bamberger writes approvingly. He himself has more problems in this area, as he vicariously appreciates Night’s home outside Philadelphia (“it was maybe the grandest of all the horse-country estates”), Night’s staff, Night’s fresh fruit and Night’s “chicken with perfect grill lines.” The last two were shared by Night’s cast and crew, and the book takes note of his generosity.”

  71. Geoff says:

    Ok I just got back from seeing After Earth….how is that no one has written about this film anywhere yet???

    Good old fashioned survival adventure….M. Night does some nice work building and maintaining tension, it’s actually a surprisingly harrowing movie using very effective special effects that while they are not as gorgeous to look at in STID, really do the job.

    I’m not honestly sure why Sony seems to be hiding it so much except…Will Smith is very un-Will Smith like in this, he’s about as grim as we’ve ever seen him. It’s like he’s channeling post-Jack Ryan Harrison Ford. That said, it fits the role and he does it well.

    Very simple two character piece for the most part that never really wears out its welcome and has some gorgeous shots with only one obvious M. Night weakness….an overuse of grim flashbacks. Weakest part overall is when Jaden emotes…but he does pull off the physical stuff very well. Not really a fan of anything Knight has done except for Unbreakable and I really enjoyed it.

  72. cadavra says:

    MNS’ “originality” is highly overrated. The “gimmick” of THE SIXTH SENSE had been done many times before, and as for THE VILLAGE, there’s an episode of “Wagon Train” that is the exact same plot except that it’s Indians instead of monsters. He just recycles from obscurer sources.

  73. YancySkancy says:

    Saw the AFTER EARTH trailer once–the Smiths are doing some sort of accent, aren’t they? British maybe? Why?

  74. scooterzz says:

    ray pride — have you read the actual book or just maslin’s review?…i ask because it seemed to me that she wasn’t disputing the facts, just the methods of getting them…i’ve spoken with several people connected with ‘lady in the water’ and all have admitted that the circumstances were pretty much as described in the book … i think maslin’s main problem was that she didn’t like a sportswriter stepping on to her turf (just my opinion)….
    anyway, my statement stands that i doubt there will ever be a ‘lady in the water 2’….(and you really should give bamberger’s book a shot, it’s hugely entertaining)…..

    btw– saw ‘mos’ tonight…can’t wait for the blowback on that one!

  75. Ray Pride says:

    I have read the book. It’s a crazy tale and crazier telling.

  76. SamLowry says:

    …and then there’s the ’96 Margaret Peterson Haddix novel “Running Out of Time”:

    “Jessie is a 13-year-old girl from the village of Clifton, Indiana in the 1840s. During a village-wide outbreak of diphtheria, Jessie’s mother reveals that the actual year is 1996, and that Clifton Village is actually a tourist attraction, a replica of a historical village. She secretly sends Jessie out of the village with a pair of jeans and t-shirt to retrieve a cure for the disease from a man who disagreed on having Clifton as a tourist attraction, Isaac Neeley. But Jessie has to be careful because there are a few guards that have to make sure that no one from Clifton leaves and finds out that it is really 1996 and not 1840.”

    That’s just the first paragraph of the wiki.

  77. hcat says:

    Jesus Scoot, you can’t just tease about seeing mos, even just give us a whoops, neh, or a hell ya. It would even just be enough to toss out the title of a film you thought was of the same quality.

    But to mention it and not say anything further, well thats just mean girl behavior.

  78. Paul Doro says:

    He’ll probably suddenly go missing if he says anything more about MOS.

  79. Etguild2 says:

    Didn’t hate “After Earth,” but man was it boring and tedious at times, and as Geoff implied, it ain’t a Will Smith summer movie when Will Smith is writhing in pain and issuing orders the entire time. At least it was purty. Duralde’s take is spot on:

    “After Earth tells the story of an inexperienced boy trying desperately to please his father while making one mistake after another, and as such, it becomes an uncomfortable metaphor for itself.”

  80. hcat says:

    Well does someone know when the embargo ends on MOS and when we can expect reviews? I am all sorts of anxious.

    As for After Earth, 90 minutes? When was the last time that wasn’t a sign of a lackluster action movie?

    And i’ve only gotten through 2 of the new arrested developments and the only thing I can think to say is ‘Sometimes Dead is Better’

  81. Paul Doro says:

    Is that a Jud Crandall reference? I like it, even though I’m enjoying the new Arrested Development season. At this point, considering the response to the trailers, I’d be shocked if MOS reviews aren’t overwhelmingly positive, at least from web critics. And I saw somewhere that AE is the worst reviewed movie of Will Smith’s career.

  82. Ray Pride says:

    hcat, I think it’s 100 minutes? Still, that means it’s only 90 minutes of movie. Embargo breaks in a couple hours. THR reviewed.

  83. Mike says:

    I think when he said, “can’t wait for the blowback on that one!” that he was saying he is expecting some negative reviews (isn’t that what blowback is?). All week we’ve been talking about trailers that were great for movies that weren’t, so I hardly expect reviews to be good based on the buzz of the trailer.

  84. Paul Doro says:

    It’s probably because I’m in the minority so often with movies like this, but sometimes the reviews from certain critics feel like they were written before the movie was seen.

  85. chris says:

    Or maybe it’s because you read the reviews already thinking that, Paul Doro.

  86. anghus says:

    i saw the first peace of awful MOS marketing. Some ad features a female soldier. Her commanding officer asks “Why are you smiling” and she replies…

    “I just think he’s hot.”

    You could almost hear the sound of a piano crashing to the ground.

    THUD.

    Really bad attempt at drawing in the female demo. That is the first warning sign i’ve seen so far.

  87. chris says:

    I think he was asking about the “Man of Steel” embargo, Ray. (And “After Earth” embargo was last night at 11 p.m.)

  88. Paul Doro says:

    Maybe chris. Or maybe I’m thinking too much about a certain someone who used to post here a lot.

  89. Ray Pride says:

    I was not born to a world flooded with acronyms, Chris. YARG.

  90. hcat says:

    ‘ And I saw somewhere that AE is the worst reviewed movie of Will Smith’s career.’

    Have only read a few, none are pleasant but surely they are better than the notices he got for Wild Wild West or Bagger Vance (though I did enjoy him in the latter one).

  91. anghus says:

    AE: 16% on Rotten Tomatoes.

    “The first bomb of the summer is here, and it landed on Will Smith.”

    The knives are out.

  92. Paul Doro says:

    hcat I think they were going strictly by RT rating. As anghus mentioned AE is at 16%. Bagger Vance is 43% and WWW 21%. So it’s close!

  93. hcat says:

    Wow,

    First, stupid use of the word bomb since that would refer to box office and it hasn’t opened yet.

    Second, is it too much to ask for critics to at least attempt to differantiate themselves from everyday internet posters? I understand the system of build up/ tear down when it comes to movie stars, but I would hope the people paid to report about the work and the industry would refrain from the gleeful burning in effigy that happens when a big name faceplants. And I’m not even a Smith fan.

    Though is this much of a suprise? Except from the inherited Bond, what are the great Columbia action movies from the past few decades? If its not based on a non-fiction book is there any urgency to see a Columbia film?

  94. Paul Doro says:

    Well, that comment comes from the NY Daily News, so in this case it probably is too much to ask.

  95. Etguild2 says:

    One problem I had with it is that much of the charisma and authenticity that Jaden brought to “Karate Kid,” seems to have disappeared. What made that remake pretty good, to me at least, was you actually empathized for Will Smith’s kid…he made you feel his struggle. Same with POH.

    I didn’t get that at all here, even though the script wasn’t terrible. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but I read recently that Jaden has tethered himself to the likes of Justin Bieber, Selena Gomez and the Jenners, despite being much younger, and is going out and partying at clubs despite being only 14. Instead of emoting, despite his father slowly dying and being on a strange planet, in AE it really is like he’s relying more on physicality and “swagga.”

  96. chris says:

    It’s hard to show much charisma when the director’s main directions seem to be, “Never smile” and “More deadness in your eyes, please, Jaden.”

  97. anghus says:

    I do find it funny when people pile on a filmmaker. It feels like it’s difficult for them to get a fair shake. Then you have the backlash to the backlash. People screaming “groupthink” because they point out that Shyamalan films have gotten gotten weaker and some of them are just generally not liked by the public. I think i fall into the median range with early M. Night.

    Loved Sixth Sense
    Loved Unbreakable
    Liked Signs a lot

    Then i kind of break from convention

    Liked The Village

    People were tweaked by the twists and some of the absence of logic. But i thought that movie was so different and so bleak for a mainstream summer release. I admired it’s differences, even if some of it was silly.

    Then i fall back into line with conventional wisdom

    Didn’t like Lady in the Water
    Thought The Happening was beyond idiotic and unintentionally funny. (Speaking of, what’s with this very loud minority who believes it was bad on purpose?)

    The Last Airbender was murdered by terrible child actors and pretty awful.

    I understand the idea that there are a lot of nitpicky people (and critics) out there unfairly crucifying movies, but is M. Night really on the receiving end of unfair criticism. He was ‘the twist’ guy for awhile. Then he transitioned into some very obtuse mainstream films that failed to generate a lot of love.

    M. Night seems to be the beneficiary of the ‘anti’ sentiment. So many people are lining up to poke him with their steely knives that he’s actually getting the contrarians to defend his mediocre recent output. Apparently it’s now hip to like M. Night again.

  98. Paul Doro says:

    I think there’s a lot of truth to that anghus. Many are claiming the criticism of him is horribly unfair. I see people saying things that amount to “he isn’t really all that bad” while referencing The Sixth Sense and Signs and declaring that groupthink is responsible for all the hate, as if he could easily make another beloved movie if people would just stop picking on him.

  99. chris says:

    Scarily, I am in almost complete accord with you on the Shyamalan filmography, anghus (except that I actually love “Signs” and love love love “Unbreakable”). You did, however, leave out “Wide Awake,” which is excruciating.

  100. Joe Leydon says:

    Actually, I thought Shyamlan’s Praying With Anger was pretty good.

  101. christian says:

    Said it before, say it again: Night has a great compositional skill and with dialogue (but not always, yes), and Bruce Willis’s opening scene in UNBREAKABLE is Oscar worthy.

  102. hcat says:

    ‘as if he could easily make another beloved movie if people would just stop picking on him.’

    I think he could easily make another great film, the problem I have with him is that he seems to be a strong craftsman that relys on awful stories. I found all his premises since Unbreakable to be silly, and the resolutions to be weak, yet there are set pieces and performances within them that are quite strong. The gun at the dinner table and weightlifting scenes in Unbreakable (along with the cryptic ‘how many days have you been sick’ note). The basement scene with the knife and the asthma attack in Signs. The suicide montage on Happening. He knows how to create and sustain mood and tension, and then tighten the screws further so your stomach drops. He just doesn’t seem to put these skills to any use on a script worthy of them.

  103. anghus says:

    if i remember correctly when Lady in the Water was coming out, a lot of people seemed to imply he doesn’t like notes and he doesn’t write a lot of drafts.

    if this is true, it greatly explains his deficiencies.

  104. Etguild2 says:

    Deadline is reporting that early numbers for AFTER EARTH are disastrous, at least a third below tracking, possibly below NYSM, way below “Oblivion” and likely below “Wild Wild West,” even after 14 years of inflation.

    Time to remove the crown Big Willie, ten years is long enough. Downey and DiCaprio can fight over it.

    This may only be the start of a brutal box office summer for Sony.

  105. anghus says:

    And you know, i was going to see After Earth, because lets face it, i enjoy the conversations about disasters. But i watched the first four minutes of NYSM online, and i didn’t hate it.

    Decisions, decisions….

  106. chris says:

    fyi, anghus — The opening of “Now You See Me” is by far the best parts. Those initial tricks are pretty clever (a lot of the magic stuff is), but the connecting material is lame and there are literally no characters.

  107. anghus says:

    you know whats funny. when i saw the kid on the boat in NYC i kept wondering why they were hiding him in the trailers. Not that i think he’s that engaging, but the trailers make “The Four Horseman” as the magicians, but its all Harrelson, Fisher, and Eisenberg. I’m sure its because he’s not a draw or a known quantity, but i think its funny when you cut one the main characters out of all the marketing and then you watch the movie and go ‘who is this guy?’

  108. scooterzz says:

    i wonder if the current heartland weather catastrophes will affect the release of ‘mos’ in mid-country theaters… re-live or not re-live?….(are there even theaters left in tornado alley?)..

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon