MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady-El

So… back from Monsters University

Not a lot to add to Man of Steel. WB did a good job of underselling their expectations of opening.

Current projections have the opening around the Iron Man 2 opening… which is quite good. As always, opening has nothing to do with the movie. So time will tell how audiences feel about the movie itself. But $300m-$400m domestic would be pretty much what would be expected of this opening.

The June opening stat is really more a function of how the summer is programmed.

This Is The End‘s opening suggests that it’s looking at between $75m-$100m domestic, which will make the relatively cheap film a success financially.

Next weekend will be interesting, as Monsters University is likely to be in the high 60s to the low 80s somewhere and Dragon Ball… strike that… World War Z is looking for an opening closer to Man of Steel. WWZ goes into opening more hopeful about international than Supes, but still, it needs to do some big business here too.

Be Sociable, Share!

36 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady-El”

  1. Bulldog68 says:

    Hey Dave, we got your absolute pan on Man of Steel. Now any perspective on it’s box office?

  2. Nick says:

    yeah, the silence is hysterical. At $125 million in three days, I’d like to think that the movie is a guaranteed $300 million domestic/$500 million overseas success, at minimum.

  3. Poland's Sacred Queso says:

    The thing about Dave is it isn’t enough to dislike something it is important that it does poorly too. Being closed minded and didactic limits the success of his sites.

  4. cadavra says:

    That VEHICLE 19 number should be a warning to Paul Walker not to ask for too big a raise for subsequent FAST & FURIOUS pictures…

  5. Smith says:

    World War Z is looking for an opening closer to MoS? Um, sure, ok, in a perfect world, I’m sure all blockbusters would like that, but does anyone actually expect Z to come anywhere close to $100m+?

    Also, kinda sad that it looks like Before Midnight, on 840 screens, couldn’t crack the top 10 – unless Sony Classics hasn’t reported numbers or something? Otherwise it would’ve only needed to do $1,000 per theater to nose ahead of Hangover 3. Belly flop.

  6. J says:

    Was hoping to see ‘Before Midnight’ up there somewhere after the expansion and the advertising. Maybe I was overestimating the ability to get adults into theaters on a weekend. (I’m seeing it Tuesday, myself.)

  7. Geoff says:

    This is a strong opening for sure for Man of Steel…I had thought it had an outside shot at ‘Hunger Games numbers, but honestly that would have required a perfect storm of no competition, rave reviews (and let’s face it, critics went out of their way to be much nicer to ‘Hunger), and top-flight marketing….this had the latter. Really, Warner Bros did a fantastic job marketing this thing for the past three months….that three minute trailer from April just burst word out there for this thing, even to the point where I know that it ended up making it more of a let-down for a lot of the online critics.

    When even Jeremy Jahns (who I really dig, truly charismatic critic who I hope to see get more exposure) is stating that there’s TOO much action, you know that Snyder should have been reined in a bit more.

    The next weekends are a true clusterfuck for sure…..World War Z, Monsters U, Lone Ranger, Despicable Me 2, and White House Down would ALL love to be aiming for a $70 million plus opening and the marketing has been there to make it possible, but it’s just not gonna happen for each of those movies. And don’t forget The Heat too – I don’t care what Fox is saying, you know they moved into June to aim for Bridesmaids/The Proposal numbers exceeding $150 million…could still happen too, but female audiences also love seeing Brad Pitt and Channing Tatum so something’s gotta give.

    MOS still has an outside shot at $400 million, but it’s gonna be very tough with that competition…but then again, I thought the same thing about Iron Man 3 last month and it’s legged it out. The market CAN expand sometimes.

    By the way, saw a screening of White House Down a few nights ago, FUN movie! Roland Emmerich is never gonna be an elite popcorn director like Spielberg or Nolan, but at least it seems that he knows that now….it’s probably his smallest scaled action movie yet (not a tough task, considering his catalog) and he thrives because of it. The movie knows what it is even moreso than Olympus Has Fallen and the cast delivers…Tatum and Foxx have good chemistry and I’ll give Emmerich credit for choosing wisely for his villains, James Woods and Jason Clark. I wanna see more of Jason Clark, Tarantino needs to cast him in his next epic I think he’d be perfect. If you’re gonna get upset about me spoiling James Woods….trust me, any alert viewer knows he’s the villain the first minute he appears on screen and how he’s shot. And it’s freaking James Woods anyway! The effects are good and the films moves at a nice clip, even though the story gets a little more complicated than it needs to get. In a less crowded marketplace, there’s no reason that this shouldn’t be a $200 million domestic earner but I have to think that Sony would be ecstatic if it broke $150 million.

  8. David Poland says:

    I don’t feet that way at all, London Don. I can’t remember the last time I begrudged a film its box office. My disappointments tend to be about good films falling short commercially.

    But you are one of many who seem to project your own way of seeing the world onto me.

    Box office is rarely an emotional issue for me, as it rarely has much to do with the quality of the movie. I do like to point out misconceptions about hits and misses, especially as grosses offer a less and less complete picture, especially domestic grosses alone, which most writers focus on to the exclusion of everything else.

  9. js partisan says:

    Yeah, Inception.

    Smith, yes, WWZ is going to open huge. Why? Zombies. It’s the Walking Dead factor, and that will get the people in the seats alone. Also, Brad Pitt doesn’t hurt that film’s box office at all.

    Geoff, a fun flick? Really? No. Sorry. No.

    Also, “Before Midnight” was knee-capped by limited releasing. A movie like that, should get a 1500 screen release. It would be better off with a freaking VOD strategy, compared to the one Sony used.

  10. Smith says:

    JS – good point, walking dead plus pitt plus PG-13. maybe i’m underestimating. I assumed best case scenario was a Prometheus-style $50m opening.

  11. palmtree says:

    Iron Man 3 was a lock for 400. I don’t know why so many think the market doesn’t expand when it routinely does. Like some saying The Hobbit wasn’t getting to 300, but it did (and that was even with it not being particularly well-liked).

  12. LexG says:

    BLING RING POWER Only movie that matters this weekend.

    Already saw it three times, going back for at least 2 more tomorrow.

  13. Keil S. says:

    It has to be a mistake. Maybe Before Midnight just isn’t showing up for some reason.

  14. Geoff says:

    JS did you actually see the movie yet?? Yeah it’s fun….I seem to remember you finding the Twilight movies to be “fun” nothing wrong with that.

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    Really amused to see how well Now You See Me is opening. Could it be word of mouth? A multi-generational cast? Counter-programming?

  16. LexG says:

    Joe: Anything with “big plot twists” usually = WOM. Even something like “The Illusionist” (Norton version), that real twisty guessing-game thing– audiences seem to always love that.

  17. Geoff says:

    It’s gotta be because of Jesse Eisenberg’s sex appeal.

  18. anghus says:

    Whoever made the comparison to Now You See Me to Italian Job i think hit the nail on the proverbial head. It’s that good but not great heist movie with some likable talent. Deviates from the typical big explosion summer movies. You can get those films to $100 million every so often.

    The fact that Now You See Me will make more than After Earth and a hair less than Hangover III is mind boggling.

    Does anyone with juice know what World War Z is currently tracking at? My guess was 55 low. 85 high.

  19. Uh says:

    MAN OF STEEL is the worst super hero movie of the modern era. Holy Christ.

  20. Storymark says:

    Sure, if you ignore Catwoman, both Fantastic 4 flicks, Daredevil, Electra, Wolverine, X3, Green Lantern, the last Superman flick… And several more.

    Then… Maybe. But even then… A reach.

  21. Hallick says:

    “When even Jeremy Jahns (who I really dig, truly charismatic critic who I hope to see get more exposure) is stating that there’s TOO much action, you know that Snyder should have been reined in a bit more.”

    “Man of Steel” doesn’t really have “too much action” as much as it has overly repetitive action that becomes completely uninteresting in the last half hour. In my memory, it’s like watching a fist fight where one guy runs screaming at the other guy to hit him in the face as hard as he can then the other guy does the exact same thing six dozen times. The bar fight in Alaska that almost happens with the douche that threw the beer in Clark’s face had a ton more dramatic weight than any of the Zod vs. Superman stuff.

  22. Bulldog68 says:

    “MAN OF STEEL is the worst super hero movie of the modern era. Holy Christ.”

    Uh..have you seen Batman and Robin? Supergirl? Judge Dredd? Steel? Spiderman 3 and The Amazing Spiderman? Both Hulks? The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen? Both Ghost Riders?

    And for worth it’s worth I liked Ang Lee’s Hulk but c’mon, worst ever?

    For the record I enjoyed this more than Iron Man 2 & 3, Thor, Captain America, XMen Last Stand and I’m actually more psyched to see Man of Steel 2 than The Avengers 2. There…I said it.

  23. js partisan says:

    Geoff, sorry, but Chaste Vampries are nowhere close to being as fucking tacky, as anything having to do with Roland. I have no idea how people enjoy that man’s work. All of it, absolutely all of it, is just such abysmal shit, but apparently people love disaster porn.

    That aside, “Now You See Me” just works. It features stars people like, in a movie that doesn’t treat the audience stupid, and people dig magic.

  24. Goodvibe61 says:

    We saw Bling Ring today at the Arclight. The movie doesn’t work. There’s not enough of a story to tell, and there’s nothing under the surface of these dumb ass kids pulling their inane garbage. The movie isn’t sure if it’s comedic, ironic, tragic; it’s none of the above. This is definitely a lesser effort by Ms. Coppola. Mildly disappointing stuff.

  25. brack says:

    Great opening for Man of Steel this weekend, considering how lukewarm Superman Returns turned out to be at the box office (and the fact that it also wasn’t very interesting). The difference here is that what the film is selling and what it turned out to be were the same. It’s good to know people are showing up and are open to the idea of this style of Superman, because it’s exactly like the one that was sold in the trailers/tv spots.

    You got great actors, special effects, and a story worth sitting through. Plus normal folk appear to be liking this one quite a bit. It delivered what it promised.

  26. LexG says:


    BOW. See it five, six times. Masterpiece.

  27. Joe Leydon says:

    LexG: I take it you liked Watson in This is the End. What did you think (of her and the movie)?

  28. LexG says:

    I will be seeing it tomorrow and will report my findings asap.

  29. SamLowry says:

    That Rob Delaney quote on the front page is amusing considering I heard the same thing earlier this week on “The Deadliest Catch” when I was visiting my folks (I can’t afford cable).

    The captain tore into a new guy–the teenage son of a crew member–for wanting to leave only days into the season (which will last only 2 to 4 weeks at most) to go back to his new girlfriend. The boy was ridiculed for getting a girlfriend right before the season began (and unlike what the rom-coms tell you, you don’t get a boy/girlfriend by accident–work is required), for his lousy job prospects once he’s back ashore, for thinking this girl will stick around when she realizes he’ll be flipping burgers to support them, but mostly for thinking no other girl will appear in the future, considering this trip will make him lots of money.

    Edit: Personal parallels and comparison to AN OFFICER AND A GENTLEMAN deleted; too obvious and boring.

  30. jepressman says:

    Nah, MoS is not the worst super hero movie of this time,There are several other films that are more worthy of that conclusion. The critics are often wrong and they get cranky and write crappy reviews. They are entitled to their opinions but when they do a pile-on to kill a movie, well that is less than professional civil behavior.

  31. movieman says:

    Regrettably, I have to agree w/ you on “The Bling Ring,” Goodvibe.
    As beautifully made as it is, I left a screening humming Peggy Lee’s “Is That All There is?”
    If it was Coppola’s intent to make a film as surface-y and opaque as her deluded characters, it’s brilliant.
    If she actually wanted us to care about some/any of them, not so much.
    And this is coming from a huge Sofia fan: her last three movies all made my 10-best list.
    It would, however, make a fantastic rep house double bill w/ “Spring Breakers”…that is if rep theaters still existed.

  32. Nick says:

    So pumped to see MoS today it’s almost a joke…

    Saw This is the End yesterday. It has a SHIT-TON of laugh out loud moments. But it’s less of an actual movie and more of a spoof of celebrities and the last ten years of the Rogen-Apatow comedy movement. Extremely vulgar, aggressively absurd, and frequently sharp where it counts, it definitely represents the end-all-be-all of this brand of humor, and I really can’t imagine where Rogen and his cronies can go from here. It’s been an excellent ride, though.

    And Before Midnight is a PERFECT finale to the Before Trilogy. I truly hope that Oscar comes calling for screenplay and acting nominations (at the very least). This is a challenging, complex, emotionally draining movie that speaks volumes about how men and women interact with each other. Loved every single moment of this perfectly calibrated masterpiece from Richard Linklater and the effortlessly amazing combo of Delpy & Hawke. It was fantastic to watch the first two movies back to back before heading to the theater to see how it all finished. Best movies I’ve seen so far this year (other than To the Wonder, of course).

  33. djk813 says:

    I know there are currently only three movies in the “Before” series at this point, which technically makes it a trilogy, but why assume that the series is done at three? Any resolution in Before Midnight is only temporary, so who knows what happens from here. I look forward to another movie in 8-10 years and they’ve developed such great characters, I see no reason not to keep this up as a fictional 7-Up type series until they reach Amore territory.

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    Wonder if there’s any chance Warners might try to push 44 just a little bit further, so it reaches $100 million. Maybe some ads touting it as a great Independence Day movie?

  35. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Is that the threequel to 42?

  36. Joe Leydon says:

    Foamy: Arrrrgh! And too late for me to edit, too, dammit. LOL.

The Hot Blog

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon