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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Purged Klady/Analysis by Poland

I want to start again today with praising Universal’s summer start so far. Being negative is all too easy for media and praise usually comes with blinders on. If there was one biggest little-engine success this summer so far, it would be Summitgate’s Now You See Me. But The Purge opening is right there and F&F6 looks to be slightly bigger than the last one (which is often a warning that the next one will start to show Franchise Drop… in the case of F&F, for the second time.)

Fox also has two movies paired on the Top 10 chart this weekend, but at #4 and #5. The Internship is the second disappointing opening in the last 2 weekends. Fox is claiming a budget under $60 million. Vaughn’s international draw is not great. So even at this relatively low budget, it will be a fight to get to breakeven on this one.

The other Fox film is Epic, which is looking a bit more Robots than Ice Age for Chris Wedge. The big ongoing question at Fox, having taken on DreamWorks Animation, is animation saturation. DWA’s Turbo is coming from Fox in July, the second animated release by the studio in 4 weeks. But next year, it really gets nuts, as DWA goes to 3 releases a year (March, June, November) with Fox pushing out 1 of its own, just one month after DWA’s March release.

Star Trek: Into Darkness is an interesting study moving forward. It’s down about 25% domestically from the first JJ movie and up about 50% internationally. What does this mean going forward? Well, probably at least one more shot at this franchise breaking out foreign. The ceiling would appear to be $400m worldwide, which is not bad, but not great at the price of production and marketing. Depending on how much they are paying Mr. Abrams in adjusted gross, this film is right at the border of profitability and loss.

After Earth is looking like a big writedown for Will Smith, the third of his career. Can you name the others?

The Legend of Bagger Vance and Ali. Both movies with Will Smith playing something other than WILL SMITH. And not for nothing, Smith will also turn 45 this year.

Don’t bet against a comeback… and now 5 years from his last big movie star hit, it will be a comeback. He has 3 sequels in the development hopper. But 3 originals too. The one that sounds like a great bet for him is the Ed Zwick post-Katrina hero movie… but I haven’t read (nor plan on reading) any of them. But it sounds the least tricky and the most “like” Smith’s natural persona. We shall see.

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54 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Purged Klady/Analysis by Poland”

  1. chris says:

    “Mud” actually increased this week? I think that August DVD release is too soon.

  2. anghus says:

    So we now have our first two duds of the Summer. Internship and After Earth. And that hold for Now You See Me is ridiculously good.

    The Purge proves that well marketed horror still has a place in the Summer line up. I wonder if the home invasion in mask marketing is going to help or hurt, You’re Next, which seems to be built on the same basic premise.

  3. GexL says:

    Hangover 3 at only $100m should also be considered a dud.

  4. BoulderKid says:

    Really surprised at “Now You See Me.” It looks like a case of a film’s premise working just enough to garner positive WOM and garner strong across the board support like “The Italian Job” remake did a decade or so ago. So is it now a near lock for 100m?

  5. Paul Doro says:

    I feel like I’ve been seeing the trailer for You’re Next for at least 3 or 4 months now (saw it again before The Purge), so if it bombs it’s not for lack of marketing effort. With a late August release, it’s probably far enough away from The Purge to not be hurt by any home invasion mask familiarity.

  6. berg says:

    you’re Next has been been on the shelf for a couple of years until its pickup this year .. saw it at sxsw and it has equal amounts humor and gore plus a great ending

  7. Paul Doro says:

    Yeah didn’t it play Toronto in 2011?

  8. celluloidkid says:

    Wow, I hadn’t realized that Oblivion is just at about $88 million and likely will top out at just over $90m. And After Earth won’t get anywhere close to that.

    Allow me to paint with a broad brush here, but if I had to open another futuristic sci-fi movie (Elysium), I’d be pretty nervous even if I had Matt and Jodie –and whatever love people have for D9– to help out a little.

  9. christian says:

    it’s not the home invasion angle that’s attracting my friend’s teens, it’s the dystopic sci-fi angle.

  10. celluloidkid says:

    “Is it a coincidence that Vaughn is now 43? Not likely. Some stars survive their 40s just fine. Most do not and have to make a comeback closer to 50.”

    That’s from the previous entry, but DP, I’m not sure I get this. I figured if they don’t make it through their 40s, it’s even less likely they’d be back after 50. Or do you mean come back after 50 in supporting parts/lower budget movies rather than big star vehicles.

  11. anghus says:

    Hangover 3 is definitely a domestic dud. And you know, while not a dud, Star Trek Into Darkness has to be considered underwhelming.

    Domestic number will be less than the original. The worldwide number will be a slight improvement. With the cost of production, is Star Trek becoming one of these barely better than average franchises that will keep going because it’s a safe bet?

  12. Trisha says:

    Your Star Trek number makes no sense, don’t you mean $500 million worldwide is the ceiling? It’s already close to $400 million with territories left to open. Any franchise that’s a sure thing for those numbers will keep going (subject to some careful budget control. See: Marvel not involving Iron Man)).

  13. Science-Fiction is the genre most in trouble in 2013. More than comedies, I believe.

  14. Bulldog68 says:

    I think comedic stars have a harder time surviving their 40’s than dramatic stars. But those not known as comedians per se, like Sandler, Stiller would do well to follow the Tom Hanks. Not saying they will achieve the same level of success, but Vince Vaughn was believable in stuff like The Cell and Jurassic Park in a non comedic role. I always wondered why he did not do more.

    Owen Wilson may have a harder fight and he did try Behind Enemy Lines and last years Midnight in Paris, to some success, so it’s not all bad.

    I don’t know if it’s an ego thing but I’d rather be the secondary star in a good drama than the star of a crappy comedy.

    Also the comedy world, or at least it’s impact has changed. SNL is not popping out the major comedic headliners they use to that spawned the likes of Murphy and Sandler. No one is getting their 3 minutes on the Tonight Show and launching their career to superstardom anymore.

    The Jonah Hills and Seth Rogens know that people aren’t showing up just to see them star in a movie anymore, as it seems they are working harder to create comedic events. With due respect to Sandler, his last few movies have been some of the most lazy pieces of film-making in recent history. Maybe Grown Ups 2 may succeed, but it stills looks like barely any effort went into it. This coming from someone who likes Kevin James.

    Sandler is 47 this year, Stiller is 48. Robin Williams was 46 when he made Good Will Hunting. Tom Hanks was 37 in Philadelphia. It can be done.

  15. brack says:

    They can’t be too disappointed with The Internship. Seriously, the movies that Vince Vaghn had starred in as of late have looked ok to awful based on the trailers. I don’t think it has anything to do with his star power, and everything to do with the fact that people won’t just go see anything just because it has a particular star. Premise comes first, stars might come second.

  16. Paul Doro says:

    $18 million, fourth place and a per theater average of just over $5,300. I can’t imagine they are too thrilled with that, not after Wedding Crashers had a $34 million opening weekend eight years ago.

  17. Poland's Flapping Mouth says:

    the film is called NOW YOU SEE ME…do you even proofread the stuff you write or do you lack all pride in everything you do?

  18. Bulldog68 says:

    “Star Trek: Into Darkness is an interesting study moving forward. It’s down about 25% domestically from the first JJ movie”

    Don’t know where you get that figure from Dave. It’s only $10m behind the first so unless it’s a typo and you meant 5%, then your math is off.

    It seems many (not particularly you Dave) are ready to bury this sequel because it didn’t do The Dark Knight box office jump. I don’t know if the budget was significantly more than the first, and the first did not look cheap, then how is this not an unqualified success regardless?

    It may not have emulated Dark Knight, but it certainly emulated Iron Man 2. Slight erosion at domestic b.o. with an even more significant expansion internationally.

    Man of Steel may steal some of it’s momentum, and everything else as well, but this weekend it had the second lowest depreciation, first being the Epic, and it has weathered F&F6, After Earth, Hangover, Now You See Me, and The Purge, which while all not direct competition certainly pulls some available adults, so Darkness may yet get to $230-$240m domestic, an overall gross less than 10% off of the original.

    This series is just fine.

  19. js partisan says:

    “This is the End” could easily join the list of duds this week. Opening on Wednesday is only going to help them so much, thanks to Superman having screenings on Thursday night. If that film somehow breaks out, color me surprised that people still care about the Apatow people.

    That aside, good on “The Purge” selling it’s premise, and getting people into the theatre.

  20. David Poland says:

    Bulldog – Mojo has the first one at $257m domestic. No?

    The second Trek will halve almost no box office jump overall and a step backwards domestically. The only improvement will be foreign, which is up about 40%.

    I agree that the Iron Man numbers are a better and fair analogy… except that IM2 was down less than 2% domestically and this Trek will be down significantly more. The foreign growth is similar.

    That said, Iron Man 1 was a lot bigger than JJ Star Trek 1… $200m bigger… and on movies this expensive, that’s where all the profit is. Likewise, that is also looking like the story here… Trek 2 will do a little under $200m less than Iron Man 2. That is the difference between a marginal movie and a money maker. (And with my reservations about JJ2, it’s a shitload better than Iron Man 2.)

    Teh wet dream for PAr is, of course, that Trek 3 would blow up like IM3… but there is a big factor in the middle called Avengers, no?

  21. Bulldog68 says:

    Agreed JS, but it could also do really well. So far no comedy has broken out and two very different films can co exist, so if Man of Steel does it’s $75-$100m and This is the End accumulates $40m by next Sunday night, a $125m is not completely out of question.

    Plus even when The Heat opens on the 28th, it’s still not the same style of irreverence that This is the End has to offer, so the road ahead may be promising.

  22. David Poland says:

    “Sandler is 47 this year, Stiller is 48. Robin Williams was 46 when he made Good Will Hunting. Tom Hanks was 37 in Philadelphia. It can be done.”

    Williams was a supporting actor in that film. Hanks is the freak… along with Denzel and others. Stiller is a box office crap shoot, his only real openers in the last 8 years being Night At The Museum 1 & 2 and the Fockers sequel. And Sandler has had his first 2 non-$100m dom movies back-to-back since 1998 with his last two films, both Sandleresque comedies.

    Yes, there are exceptions, including very clear character turns reflecting age, Sandler’s Grown-Ups being a classic example.

    But unless you become a major movie star in your mid-30s or later, it’s very hard to maintain the thing that made you famous. And then, you get old enough to be a parent or grandparent and hit the reset button.

    3 of Russell Crowe’s last 3 films opened to single digits. Les Mis was the exception.

    Tom Cruise hit the wall at 42 and only M:I4 – a great movie – has done Cruise numbers since.

    Even Hanks… 46 for Catch Me If You Can… the only non-animated $100n domestic films in the decade since were Da Vinci Code, which was enormously presold by the book.

    It’s hard. Women have it harder and get shut down earlier, as a rule.

  23. David Poland says:

    Nice to see you, Don. Hope you’re enjoying London. Now fuck off.

  24. cadavra says:

    The first STAR TREK II was made for a quarter of ST-TMP, and the success–and thus profits–of that is what saved the franchise. Lesson not learned, as the opposite was done here. STAR TREK GOES TO PLUTO or whatever the next one’ll be called is gonna hafta reign in the budget quite a bit if the series is to survive, unless they’re making a shitload off the toys.

  25. Bulldog68 says:

    Dave you do realize that Star Trek 2013 is at $200m and on it’s current trajectory will do nothing less than $230m. A 10% drop from Trek 2009 is $232m. So it’s way less than the 25% you were suggesting and that was my contention. And 10% is closer to the 2% of Iron Man than it is to 25%. We can all agree on that…..right?

    Additionally, Williams role in Hunting is exactly what I’m suggesting, so maybe I was not clear enough. They don’t have to be the stars, but a key supporting character in a good drama could be just the ticket for these guys.

    I think I also acknowledged that Hank is not to be expected to be emulated.

    Also, I was basing this around comedic actors who may have a harder time transitioning to more serious fare, hence no Denzel, Cruise, Depp, Downey, or other stars who are already entrenched in this genre.

    It always seems that actors like Crowe are always one academy nominated film away from being on everyone’s speed dial again.

    It will be very interesting to see what Damon, Hemsworth, Affleck, (who seems to be writing his own ticket) and this crop of thirty somethings and early forty somethings will do when they start to turn 50.

  26. Bulldog68 says:

    Just realized Hemsworth turns 30 this year. Tatum is 33. Brendan Fraser is another who is 45 this year who was actually the star of School Ties, with Damon, Affleck and Chris O’Donnell supporting, whose career has just not lived up to it’s full potential, although he probably has the most erratic and genre jumping resume of the whole bunch.

  27. YancySkancy says:

    Haven’t seen THE PURGE, but I really hate these idiotic dystopian plots that have the U.S. basically restructuring society less than 20 years in the future. Even if crime and unemployment got worse than we can imagine, the idea of an annual 12-hour cathartic “purge” is beyond ridiculous. It sounds like something a precocious 12-year-old might come up with, but pretty hard to swallow in a drama that I presume is meant to be taken somewhat seriously. Why are people interested in this nonsense? I guess it’s a zeitgeist thing that we’re getting so many dystopian and end-of-the-world movies now, but I can’t think of any genre less interesting to me (EDIT: I guess it’s two genres, but whatever). That said, I’ll be seeing THIS IS THE END, which looks hilarious, and probably THE WORLD’S END, because I’ve liked all the other Wright/Pegg/Frost collaborations.

  28. Paul Doro says:

    I can’t think of anything less interesting than watching Rogen and Co. make jokes about dicks and weed for 107 minutes. Different strokes I suppose.

  29. js partisan says:

    Seriously Yancy, think about how much the world has changed in 10 years. A lot of crazy shit could happen in 20 years, so I’d rather sit through “The Purge” then “This is the End.” A ridiculous dystopian future seems a lot more entertaining than anything involving the Apatow people, who need a Christopher Lee Dracula like rest for a while.

  30. SamLowry says:

    “It may not have emulated Dark Knight, but it certainly emulated Iron Man 2.”

    Meaning it was crappy? Sorry, but I’m not all that into the numbers but I am all about quality, and now that Don’s here I’m really happy to say that I’ve bought very few DVDs/Blu-Rays for myself over the last decade because there’s so little I’m willing to watch more than once (WRECK-IT RALPH, which I bought for the kids, is the only movie that came out in the last year that I like seeing again and again).

    Quality has really gone into the shitter and I have to say it’s all about the snake-oil salesman mentality of grab the money quick and flee before the rubes catch on. Movies like RAIDERS and STAR WARS, which made their money slowly–the latter playing in the local four-plex for over 13 months before it finally departed–would be dead meat in today’s market.

    Oh, and end-of-the-world movies were big because you could do anything you wanted without consequences. Shoot your boss? Fine. Kill cops? No problem. But since SEEKING A FRIEND… said everything that needed to be said with that one heroin party scene, and maybe that scene at Friendsy’s, you have to wonder why anyone would go back to that well.

    Wait–before you go, how about a reboot of LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN that actually sticks to the comic? It’s because Fu Manchu is the villain, right? I guess IRON MAN 3 proved that you can’t make the villain Chinese because you might lose all those Chinese ticket sales, that is if the gov’t actually allows your movie to grace one of their theaters uncensored, for more than a few hours before they pull it anyway.

  31. YancySkancy says:

    I dunno, I’m a fan of most Apatow-related stuff (though maybe it should be noted that he apparently has nothing to do with THIS IS THE END), so that aspect of the film doesn’t bother me at all. The only reviews I’ve seen are very positive, but sure, comedy is subjective. I’ll go in expecting to like it, and probably will. Others of you will go to hate-watch or just avoid it altogether, I guess.

    Did the Apatow-haters here dislike even SUPERBAD?

  32. hcat says:

    Will Smith’s problem is the same one that Meg Ryan had, everyone complains that they only play the one role, but then when they try something a little off the usual frequency everyone stays away.

    Vaughns problem is not that he hit 43 but that he still plays 28. Couple’s retreat was no problem because married, kids etc… but watching him in the Dilemma, I just could not believe someone as luscious as Connely would put up with this lazy, immature, tubby guy. At some point the affable loser just becomes a loser and you no longer root for them.

    With the Croods still chugging along, is it possible that Fox will have three animated films in release at the same time?

    And Christ there is nothing I would like to see less than a arguement between Sam and Don. I don’t know how long you have been around here Sam, but taking a shot at Don over League is just lazy and unoriginal. If you’re going to poke the bear at least use something sharp.

  33. Paul Doro says:

    I am not an Apatow-hater and I like Superbad fine. I also like most of the cast in This is the End. Glowing reviews or not (and I put little faith in them), I just can’t get that excited about 100+ minutes of dick and fart and drug jokes. Maybe in 6-8 months on HBO, but not in theaters. Maybe I’ve got Rogen and Co. fatigue. Just isn’t a must-see.

  34. hcat says:

    Whatever magic these preview audiences have seen is just not coming across in the marketing which is just sweaty guys making bug eyes and screaming.

  35. SamLowry says:

    I have zero interest in Trannies so I’ll stay within my interests. I’m just hoping that some day the rights will revert to someone who cares more about storytelling than money.

  36. SamLowry says:

    …and I have taken a big-time pass on SUPERBAD, since the only three things I’ve heard about it are 1) comedy about date rape, 2) hopeful date-rapist can’t stop drawing dicks, and 3) a kid got a fake ID bearing the full name “McLovin”, which you apparently have to be high to think is amusing.

    Did I miss anything?

  37. hcat says:

    Every published addition of “How to Win Friends and Influence People”

  38. Dr Wally Rises says:

    A word about Star Trek here that seems to have gone unnoticed – having a current active movie franchise based around an old brand name is not just about the profit or otherwise of the current franchise, but always a useful backdoor to help keep interest alive in library product. How many new generations of fans will buy, for example,the remastered Blu-ray sets of TNG or the old series having had their curiosity piqued by the Abrams series? To keep the brand name alive for future generations, having a current expensive movie series functions primarily as the meat that sells the entire sandwich.

  39. oscarfan says:

    “comedy about date rape”

    I have no idea what you’re talking about (and neither do you).

    There’s nothing date-rapey in that movie.

    Of course, that comes from actually watching the movie instead of “hearing three things about it”.

    But, take your “big time pass”. LOL It doesn’t need you to watch it. It’s made its $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

  40. YancySkancy says:

    Yeah, Sam, you missed a lot. As oscarfan said, there’s no date rape or attempted date rape in SUPERBAD. It’s true that there’s a scene about Hill’s character being obsessed with drawing dicks when he was a kid, but, again, he’s not a “hopeful date rapist.” As for McLovin, I’ve never gotten high in my life, but it’s a funny bit in the film. Maybe not so funny if your only exposure to it is someone telling you “There’s a guy in it who’s got a drivers license with the name McLovin.”

    And really, these are the only things you’ve heard? It grossed over 120 million domestic, but you never heard (or read) anyone saying it was hilarious or well made or even a little touching by the end? Not saying you wouldn’t hate it if you saw it (especially since you’d be expecting to), but I’d say the info you’ve based your decision on mischaracterizes the film FWIW.

  41. SamLowry says:

    I do believe the boys were seeking alcohol for some girls, who had no interest in them whilst sober. Getting someone drunk just to have sex with them is the classic definition of date rape, soooo….

  42. LexG says:

    Good Lord…

    In the words of Jeff Lebowski, what the fuck is WITH this guy?

  43. scooterzz says:

    ‘Getting someone drunk just to have sex with them is the classic definition of date rape, soooo….’

    lex would call that ‘being a good host’…..

  44. anghus says:

    Does Sam write for those christian movie review sites?

    You make the call…

  45. Pete B. says:

    McLovin was the only good part of Superbad.

  46. Paul Doro says:

    Nobody got anyone drunk just to have sex with them (does anyone even have sex in the movie?), and the girls are interested in the guys whilst sober. Sam, you’re embarrassing yourself, though I doubt you care.

  47. hcat says:

    ‘I do believe the boys were seeking alcohol for some girls, who had no interest in them whilst sober’

    They did have interest in them, and they were less getting the alcohol to get them drunk than to appear like they were cool and have connections “ya sure I can get the booze, don’t worry about it.” The skinny one actively resists the girls affections because he doesn’t want to take advantage.

  48. hcat says:

    These Man of Steel reviews are killing my day. Set my hopes up way too high.


  49. Paul Doro says:

    Yeah according to Drew and Devin it’s just about the greatest film of all-time. Hard not to be a little skeptical. Looks like DP is not a fan.

  50. YancySkancy says:

    Sam, while it’s quite likely that the Superbad guys hoped a few drinks might make the girls more amenable to a little consensual sex, I can assure you that at no point did their plans include raping the girls if they passed out. As hcat points out, the Cera character’s crush drunkenly offers herself up on a platter, but he refuses to take advantage. Sounds like maybe you read some clueless reviews or listened to friends who didn’t know how to interpret what was in front of them.

  51. storymark says:

    Paul – Did you actually read Devin’s review? He says the movie “limps” along and displays a lack of understanding of the character. He likes a lot of it, too – but he’s far from calling it the greatest ever.

  52. Paul Doro says:

    I was really referring to his statement that it features the greatest superhero action ever put to film (paraphrasing). Sorry. Should have been clearer.

  53. DiscoNap says:

    DP’s Vaughn point makes perfect sense. He’s Murray in his Larger Than Life/Man Who Knew Too Little phase. He just needs a Rushmore.

  54. SamLowry says:

    I heard the entirety of Rogen & Goldberg’s appearance on Fresh Air Tuesday and yes, they do point out that the acquisition of alcohol by the characters in SUPERBAD only made things worse. Good to hear that, since I had mistakenly lumped the movie in with every other drunken teenager movie made since the invention of celluloid (really, how many movies are there that say “Alcohol is bad” which don’t feature an appearance by Kirk Cameron?).

    Too bad, though, that none of my classmates got that memo, nor did any teenager I’ve met since then. I spent every Friday of my teen years overhearing the burnouts listing all the types of alcohol they were going to acquire that weekend, thinking that only morons would believe this was a worthwhile way to “have fun”, only to have to watch my ex take her daughter, an A student and all-around talented girl, to the emergency room to get her stomach pumped after she and her besties decided to experiment with alcohol poisoning at a party. A pelvic exam followed to see if anyone had taken advantage of her unconsciousness, and to this day I have not been informed of the result.

    It didn’t take this event to convince me that alcohol and date rape were connected–I was a bright boy who’d known this for decades and foolishly assumed everyone else knew, too. So because of my foolish assumption an innocent girl may have paid the price.

    Sorry, didn’t expect that to turn into such a bummer. Maybe I should’ve told the story about the time I subbed in a suburban high-school Art class on a Monday morning when a girl walked into first hour fashionably late and spent the remainder of class telling her besties all about her hellacious weekend, which started with her passing out at a party on Friday night, only to wake up on a bed, fully clothed–swear to God!–next to a boy who had also passed out. His GF found out, and the innocent virgin telling the story had to spend the weekend intercepting calls to her parents’ number (she had quickly shut off her own phone hours earlier) because psycho GF was threatening to set her world on fire. The innocent virgin eventually convinced her parents to change their number–the old Ma Bell number the family had for decades–saying that there was a technical difficulty that just couldn’t be fixed.

    That was funny, right?

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