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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by 2 Kladys

Friday Estimates 2013-08-03 at 10.52.56 AM

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33 Responses to “Friday Estimates by 2 Kladys”

  1. Etguild2 says:

    Sony is spinning like madly on SMURFS 2. They really should wait to make sure international numbers are as good as they think they will be before greenlighting part 3. A $50 million lower domestic gross is pretty rare for a sequel, and this could be $70 million lower…HAPPY FEET 2 is the only animated film to experience that (a whopping $130 million drop on that one).

    WB is spinning like madly on PAC RIM. They can’t be serious about the sequel right? Reminds me of JUMPER.

  2. movieman says:

    While not quite spectacular, that’s a darn good opening day number for “The Spectacular Now.”
    It’ll be interesting to see whether A24 can eventually get it onto as many screens (and hopefully w/ a tad more success) than “Spring Breakers.”
    “The Bling Ring” never went very wide, but that was fairly esoteric.
    “Now” is easily their most accessible (and commercial) release to date.
    It’d be a shame if a film that good has to fritter away its theatrical life in what remains of the “arthouse ghetto.”

  3. Fitzerald says:

    It’s sort of WB playbook. They insisted they were making a Green Lantern sequel for quite a while after the movie came out. In any case, you can’t spend a lot less on a supposed Pac Rim sequel. It would have to be hugely expensive, and that’s hard to see.

    Wow, is the Heat doing well.

  4. Smith says:

    Too bad no one seems to have Friday numbers for Blue Jasmine. Very curious to see if that one can expand successfully outside Woody’s usual NY base.

  5. Breedlove says:

    The Conjuring looked great but was as dull as dishwater…shocked that it hit so big. Boring as hell.

  6. Bother says:

    The Conjuring was the best horror movie in ages. There’s a reason it has the legs it does.

  7. Etguild2 says:

    I found it passable, but well off recent flicks like CABIN IN THE WOODS, EVIL DEAD, YOU’RE NEXT, and even THE AWAKENING and THE TALL MAN. I’d say it’s a slight improvement on SINISTER.

    Horror buzz is a strange thing. BLAIR WITCH PROJECT and HANNIBAL still rule among R-Rated horror grossers despite questionable reputations and over a decade of inflation, and the CONJURING still won’t sell as many tickets as that Sarah Michelle Gellar masterpiece, THE GRUDGE.

  8. Big G says:

    Not sure you’re right about that. After three weekends The Grudge had sold an estimated 11,855,300 tickets and as of now The Conjuring has sold an estimated 11,843,100. Checked it on Boxofficemojo.

  9. Etguild2 says:

    GRUDGE had sold 14.3 million through 3. (Look at Est-tickets-to-date through 3 weekends on the right as it counts weekdays…DP’s going to start screaming if this talk about tickets continues though lol)

    Regardless, it’s just an example of there being no real formula for MAJOR horror box office success beyond creative (or in this case, cleverly imitative) marketing. THE GRUDGE sold itself as a clone of THE RING…sometimes that’s enough to hit it big in the genre.

  10. Big G says:

    Adjusted for inflation The Grudge would gross $145 million so we’ll see if Conjuring hits that number. Yeah, you’re probably right that it won’t.

  11. Jack1137 says:

    Check out The Ring (2002) Domestic then Intnl Adjust

  12. Mako says:

    Considering it sold out at most of its 200 screens I wonder what twitter hit Sharknado made last night and if that will start a new trend for those types of SyFy channel creature features.

  13. leahnz says:

    if i see one more thing about fucking sharknado and its ‘film-makers’ my head’s gonna explode scanners-style (or ‘twitter fights’, christ go brawl at the pub like normal morons)

  14. Jack1137 says:

    Mako that’s how True independent/Cult is done Out of nowhere then builds a base

  15. Jack1137 says:

    David P. any thoughts on what Clooney had to say about the business Recently?

  16. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado Sharknado

  17. brack says:

    I wish I hadn’t been working that night where they were showing midnight showings for Sharknado. Still have not see Sharknado. I’m hoping it’s as bad as the trailer. Looks awesomely bad, which I love to watch sometimes.

    Can we get off the adjusted-for-inflation kick when talking about current film grosses? It’s not like The Grudge’s grosses are worth more now, so it’s a stupid argument. Who cares about tickets sold? It’s about money folks, plain and simple. It’s real money, “inflated” or not.

  18. Breedlove says:

    Not sure what I was missing re: The Conjuring. By the time scary stuff starts happening, you’re nine hours into the movie and in a complete coma. I get the whole “building a feeling of dread slowly by having nothing happen” but it seemed like that section just went on and on and on. Then, despite what I said above, it’s also not really scary. Looked great, though. I liked Insidious.

  19. Steven Kaye says:

    Great expansion for Blue Jasmine. It’s estimated to have made $2.02M over the weekend from 50 locations, with a PTA of $40,441. That’s stronger than Midnight in Paris in its 2nd weekend when it expanded to 58 theatres.

  20. Etguild2 says:

    Yeah really strong! I was nervous given Blanchett’s so-so track record as a lead, but maybe it has a shot at matching “Match Point” and “Vicky Cristina” after all.

  21. amblinman says:

    I hate the Sharknado crap. It’s not kitschy if they’re making garbage on purpose. Plus, you have every idiot wearing the movie as though not every other single person on the planet has heard of it. It reminds me of the Charlie Sheen stuff. It was “funny” for, like, the first 4 minutes but then you realized it was just awful.

    Horror movies usually have zero effect on me, but I found THe Conjuring fairly tense, and fun. These movies can’t scare me because I just can’t suspend disbelief for paranormal stuff, don’t know why, just can’t. However, I thought The Conjuring was a much better version of Insidious, which was terrible.

  22. YancySkancy says:

    Steven Kaye: What did you think of Sharknado?

    amblinman: I have the same problem sometimes with paranormal films. Unlike most every other person on the planet it seems, I have never had anything remotely “spooky” happen to me (I was born on Halloween, so maybe I’m immune?). It seems that everyone has some story like “When I mentioned our late Aunt Susie at the seance, her portrait suddenly fell off the wall!” Or: “I kept hearing music in the middle of the night, then found out the previous owner of the house was a piano player who was murdered!”

  23. sanj says:

    Sharknado is going on Discovery Channel. so the sharks jumped right into science.

  24. The Big Perm says:

    Discovery Channel decided to get out of the science game a LONG time ago.

  25. Joe Straatmann says:

    Sharknado is one of those things where I wonder where all these people were when Sci-Fi (I refuse to call them that stupid-ass name they’ve given themselves) was doing constant ridiculous shark movies all day, every day. Here’s one scene where a shark jumps tens of thousands of feet in the air to take down a jetliner:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I16_8l0yS-g

    What the heck is it about Sharknado where suddenly even my dad is texting me about it? I guess the simplicity of concept mixed with adults executing an idea of a five year old. Like Axe Cop of something (Though Axe Cop has the advantage of actually being written by a five-year-old boy). I don’t know. I prefer bad cinema actually done by crazy people. Sorry, Asylum, your name doesn’t fool me.

  26. christian says:

    I love how proud Fox animation is of AXE COP when they brag, “Written by a five year old!” That seems pretty obvious….

  27. cadavra says:

    Joe: It’s the title. Short and catchy. Everybody was apeshit for SNAKES ON A PLANE until the day it opened.

  28. Joe Straatmann says:

    cadavra: I figured the same thing as well, but this is getting some people who told me, “What the hell is with this Snakes on a Plane crap?!” I think it has something to do with direct-to-telivision making it easier to sell the joke rather than having this thing like Snakes on a Plane that cost tens of millions of dollars they had to actually sell as a legit movie. Plus, without the need to wide release in most markets with multiple daily showings, they can just cherry pick limited midnight screenings, sell them out, and make a story.

  29. Yancy says:

    1) With the years of dreadful found footage movies made since, I believe more than ever that BLAIR WITCH PROJECT is a indie horror masterpiece to rank with TEXAS CHAINSAW and NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD. The problem is that most people don’t like to watch people arguing in movies. It makes them uncomfortable, and they may even turn around and blame the actors. But I think all three leads in BLAIR WITCH are spot-on, and I fucking LOVE arguing in movies. The movie is purposeful, believable as cobbled together found-footage, and tight as a drum. And after fifteen years and as many viewings, I still couldn’t bear to finish it the other night – honestly too scared. It has a dread-heavy, primal-fear, “jesus, we’re fucked” vibe no movie since has managed.

    2) Does anyone really like PACIFIC RIM? I’m getting a lot of “we really should love this” or “I really like the concept” nonsense, but nearly every popcorn movie I’ve screened since gets this from me as an honest response: “Well, I did like it more than PACIFIC RIM. It actually got off the ground.” For instance, I watched James Brolin in THE CAR last night, and on my honor that movie is BETTER than PACIFIC RIM – as dumb as it is, they keep the balls in the air and get the thing movies. (Larry Fessenden’s BENEATH, which I didn’t like as much as I wanted, is also better than RIM)

    3) And yet I watched DEVIL’S BACKBONE for the first time over the weekend, and was astounded. Masterwork.

    4) The SHARKNADO thing is depressing. It’s the ultimate evidence that modern audiences want NOTHING MORE than to feel superior to the product. That is their greatest thrill, and it’s no thrill at all.

  30. christian says:

    BLAIR WITCH PROJECT is the last great horror film of the 20th century.

  31. leahnz says:

    ‘blair witch project’ is a masterpiece of sound design.

  32. Jeffrey Boam's Doctor says:

    Yancy your love for the Car over PR has won me over.

    However you nearly lost me about Sharknado though. The audience is well aware the makers are in on the joke. It’s not enjoyment from a superior stance (seen this mentioned elsewhere too) it’s a harmless goof that crossed over. No one got hurt by it. It was better than SOAP because it was disposable and never positioned as anything else than a chunk of dumb fun. I’m saddened by the hate to be honest. To me the hate comes from a superior stance, from people who think they’re above those that had a good time with it. It’s what John Waters referred to as reverse snobbery.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon