Friday Estimates by Still Riding Klady
This weekend is a little more interesting than it appears. The weekend after the Martin Luther King, Jr Day 4-day has premiered these new films in the last 5 years;
2013 – Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, $19.7m
2012 – Underworld Awakening, $25.3m and Red Tails, $18.8m
2011 – No Strings Attached, $19.7m
2010 – Legion, $17.5m and Tooth Fairy, $14m
2009 – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, $20.8m
You’ll notice all of those are from majors or divisions of majors. Lionsgate still not quite there.
But the bigger question of this weekend is why it was abandoned by those majors. Why is Sony pushing out two movies on February 14 when RoboCop seems like a perfect fit with the films that have opened quite well on this date and will have to fight the nature of Valentine’s Day weekend when it opens? Or what about Pompeii, which seems like they are dumping it… why not here instead? Universal’s Non-Stop would seem like a fit, though Universal clearly had faith that Lone Survivor would still have some heat and didn’t want to program against it in the same niche going into its third wide weekend.
Of course, March is a bit of an action clusterf**k at this point. 300: Rise of An Empire, Need For Speed, Divergent and Noah back to back to back to back.
Instead, I, Frankenstein will hope to get to $8 million as the only wide opener. Scary.
I am not a big fan of analyzing specific weekends to death. But there are so few these days with just one wide release on them, that when the major choose not to go there, one wonders why.
Not a lot else worth writing about. All 9 Oscar nominees still in release did okay. Significant expansions for Dallas Buys Club, Nebraska, 12 Years A Slave, and Gravity with not overwhelming results. The strongest re-boot was Dallas, which no coincidentally had the biggest expansion… but it won’t get close to the film’s best weekend-to-date, which was back in November.
It will be interesting to see the Oscar nominees fall off the Top Ten charts completely in a couple of weekends as we wait five more weeks until Oscar Sunday, at which point more than half of the nominees will be available on DVD.
Wow, “Devil’s Knot” was released this weekend? What an awful way to kick off what’s being hailed as a major comeback year for Reese Witherspoon.
The FROZEN records are becoming redundant at this point, but it has to be noted that (assuming it passes JACK RYAN and/or FRANKENSTEIN for the weekend) it is only the 2nd film in the last decade, after AVATAR, to spend 9 weeks in the top 5. Before AVATAR, you have to go back to CHICAGO and MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, and for an animated film (without re-issues), ALADDIN.
Pretty sure Devil’s Knot is Canada only.
I’m not sure TDK even has U.S. Distribution.
The Dark Knight didn’t get distributed in the U.S.?
(I kid, I kid.)
Image Entertainment allegedly has “all media” U.S. rights to the Egoyan film, Ray.
No release date yet, though.
Who would have thought that a “Nut Job” sequel would be announced in the trades before a follow-up to “Ride Along”?
I’m still waiting for your press release, Universal.
The nut job sequel will have quite a bit less salary negotions involved. Uni has got just a little time to get it sewn up before about last night is released and Hart’ quote goes up even further
Google tells us up a “Ride Along” sequel was announced last April, movieman.
The same story claims there will be a sequel for “The Heat,” which won’t happen. It appears that neither Kevin Hart nor Mr. Cube shares Sandra Bullock’s disdain for sequels, though.
A “Ride Along” sequel was announced 9 months before “Ride Along” opened, Chris?
That doesn’t sound remotely plausible.
Unless Universal has a soothsayer living in their corporate offices.
(Which wouldn’t explain “47 Ronin,” “R.I.P.D.” and “Kick-Ass 2.”)
I agree w/ Dave that this would have been an ideal weekend to open “Robocop” or (especially) “Pompeii.”
But Sony probably thought “I, Frankenstein” would do “Underworld” biz, thereby cannibalizing their audience.
Nobody has mentioned it, but I’m wondering if the shitty weather in the Northeast is keeping weekend grosses down.
The only time I left the house today was to shovel the driveway.
And I’m not planning on taking my car out of the garage until at least tomorrow.
Ride Along sequel was put into development after a series of great test screening results. 22 Jump Street was similarly put into development before release after the same
I knew it was inevitable after last weekend’s opening.
But I had no idea they’d already discussed a follow-up before the first movie was even released.
Now “22 Jump Street” is a sequel I’m genuinely looking forward to:
loved “21 JS.”
Can’t say the same about the threat of another “Ride Along.”
I saw the movie in a sold out theater where it played like a rock concert. I’m glad I didn’t see it at some typical all-media screening. Anyway, being ready with a sequel script has become very common, and is good business when you realize the odds of using it are far greater than any other piece of development. The benefits of being ready to go right away far outweigh the potential sunk cost of a script.
Tim Story’s certainly had a bizarre career. From crossover star director with “Barbershop” to failed mainstream director with the “Fantastic Four” duology to director of the two biggest urban smashes of the last few years with “Think Like A Man” and “Ride Along,” and potentially, “Think Like a Man Too” later this year.
“Failed?” Both movies grossed more than $130 million. Would the studio have liked more? Sure. But “failed?” No.
And, come to think of it, what do you mean “mainstream?”
Yes, considering the first movie was marginally profitable and poorly received, and the 2nd movie lost money and was reviled by fans (just saying the word “Galactus” whips Marvel fans into a frenzy), I’d consider the films, overall, to be failures by Hollywood standards. Given his transition from those movies to “Hurricane Season,” and the fact Season couldn’t get a release date, despite being better than “Coach Carter” and Forrest Whitaker riding high off the Oscar, I’d think it’s obvious that Story came out of the “Fantastic Four” movies the worse for wear.
I think mainstream is clear also–I don’t consider niche films that don’t attract a diverse audience, whether they are evangelical, urban or Bollywood to be mainstream. Do you?
I thought “Ride Along” was essentially a male, African-American version of “The Heat:” comedy that wasn’t remotely funny; a boilerplate TV cop show “plot;” and clumsily executed action “setpieces.”
If I didn’t hate it quite as much as I did Paul Feig’s b.o. lollapalooza, that’s probably because it was shorter and didn’t star Melissa McCarthy.
I was unaware that there are existing words that don’t send fanboys into a frenzy.
In defense of FF2, which doesn’t reach the level of good movie but is a strong improvement to the first, a big black space cloud was absurd, but probably less absurd than an eight story Kevin Spacey holding Jessica Alba in the palm of his hand explaining how the sum of human exestince is but a molecule of a grain of salt in the ocean of the universe.
And it’s not by any means a measure of greatness, ride along might be the fourth unique film Story has directed that has garnered a sequel, off the top of my head I can’t think of any other director to match that other than Craven.
The immortal Raja Gosnell (Scooby Doo, Smurfs, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Big Momma’s House), Robert Rodriguez and Spielberg assuming the “Tintin” sequel is real, to name a few, but you make good points. I don’t really have a strong opinion on FF, but Story himself has pointed out the movies didn’t exactly help his career.
They certainly did t catapult him to the a list, but look at the list of directors that made comic book movies, it seems only del toro, raimi, and Nolan were able to use them as a permanent launch pad.
Those chihuahua sequels were direct to video, and Rodriquez I’m only thinking of mariachi, spy kids and machete. What am I missing?
“Sin City.” “From Dusk Till Dawn” produced video sequels and now a TV show, but I guess that doesn’t count.
Story was on the early end of the comic-book scene, but Bryan Singer, Zack Snyder, Matthew Vaughn, Joss Whedon, Marc Webb, and I expect Shane Black have leveraged the comic-book aesthetic into super-sized fame in addition to those you named. The fact they choose to continue to do superhero movies doesn’t mean they’d be banished back to television, horror movies or the indie world in the way Story himself claims he’s been sent to director’s jail. Hell, even Gavin Hood got to make “Ender’s Game,” since the Wolverine prequel made dough (and likely would have made more if not for the notorious leak). If the hype is to be believed, the Russos and Tim Gunn will soon be joining them.