Friday Estimates by The Lone Klady
I will look at the numbers later today, but talking points:
1. Why did Lone Survivor open so well?
2. How big can Frozen get?
3. Will Wolf ever pass Hustle?
4. What’s the problem with Osage County?
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5:35p…
There was a moment when Universal thought Lone Survivor was an awards movie. They were wrong. And I think they figured that our within weeks of showing the film to people who were not really skilled at giving quotes. It’s actually a good film, excellent at what it sets out to achieve. While there has been an enormous amount lot of emotional feeling from the filmmakers and cast about the military, the film itself is a micro-view piece, not a macro-view one. As such, it doesn’t play as “important” the way that awards voters tend to see “important.”
However… there is an underserved non-minority out there that never gets written about while others insist attention be paid to how women, people over 60, and people of color are underserved by “Hollywood.” White people of the middle and lower financial class… which tends to include military families and communities that have a significant percentage of military families. The Venn diagram may also include religious America, aka the audience that drove such big numbers to The Passion of The Christ.
And I see this as Mark Wahlberg’s roots as well. He is quite wealthy and famous now, but what has made him so successful, I feel, is his earnest connection to being a not-wealthy kid who got into trouble as he struggled through the early part of his life. He is also a guy who has held on fiercely to his faith as a way of staying on the straight and narrow as he maintains his sobriety and perspective, often lost by people when they have the freedom that his success now affords him and his family. So while I don’t see a single inch of manipulation on his part, when he melted down at events about the absurdity of comparing what actors do to what soldiers do, he was speaking directly to the audience for this film.
The audience heard. And Universal did their job, making sure that the audience that would actually buy tickets felt the spirit behind this film.
I keep pointing to Act of Valor, which was released last February by the ever-stumbling Relativity, grossing $70 million without a single name actor to sell… just Seal Team Six’s involvement.
Not to oversell the cultural weight of this underserved group, but I would presume some significant crossover with the films of Jason Statham and films like The Expendables. Blue Collar Kick Ass.
Anyway… a proud opening for Universal and Wahlberg and Peter Berg and the entire team.
2. Frozen is a phenom. Already one of only 7 animated films to ever gross $300m domestic, it’s playing into January much stronger than any of its November-opening predecessors. It will likely pass Shrek The Third to become #6 all-time by the end of next weekend. The next slot leap will be $45m away, to Despicable Me 2, which is probably not going to happen.
The most interesting thing about Frozen‘s massive success is that the Disney animation brand, separate from Pixar, is really about girls and women. You can choose not to want to segregate movies that way if you like, but Frozen is quite overt in making sure that no one can mistake this for a tale in which a man or men save the day and/or the two female leads.
On the flip side, is Disney’s Marvel division, which leads with macho.
And somewhere in the middle, Pixar, which took a long time to have a female lead in a movie, but does not tend to wallow in male-driven cultural stereotypes in its films.
3. I don’t know the question to this. The noise in the media bubble about Wolf is nearly impenetrable. In many ways, the Oscar voters will answer this question for us next week. If Wolf surprises positively in a few categories, the box office could be fueled considerable. If not, probably not. Likewise, the settling in of Hustle as a potential Best Picture winner could push it farther, faster.
4. Sorry, but August: Osage County can’t hide behind 905 screens. The Weinsteins are still clearly hoping that Oscar nominations will fuel the film to real success. The expansion this weekend is not coincidental to the Oscar nomination voting closing. They can’t be hurt by a perception of this weekend being soft. And while it isn’t horrible… it is soft. Saving Mr. Banks is seen as soft at the box office and it took four wide weekends to fall to a number as low as Osage’s expansion this weekend.
Let me put it like this. August: Osage County is going to have numbers pretty close to the expansion weekend of 12 Years A Slave. So is that number for a Meryl Streep/Julia Roberts movie with a cast full of well-known supporting actors great or soft?
Like I say… if the nominations come for August, they will get a boost and numbers will be better. But Saving Mr Banks is already $64 million. Long way to go for August to get there. 12 Years is at $39 million.
Perception and reality… hmmm….
For yet another year, most of Hollywood’s most profitable films weren’t among the most expensive released. There were 10 movies released last year that had budgets in the neighborhood of $200 million (Man of Steel, Oz, The Lone Ranger, Iron Man 3, Hobbit, Monsters University, Jack The Giant Slayer, World War Z, Pacific Rim and Star Trek Into Darkness).
The 10 most profitable movies, in approximate order were Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, The Hunger Games 2, The Hobbit, Frozen, Fast & Furious 6, Gravity, Monsters U, The Croods and Thor, whose budgets averaged out to about $150 million. The only 3 crossovers were three films with storied franchise histories (Marvel, Lord of the Rings, Pixar). Two of the most expensive were massive writeoffs (Ranger, Giant Slayer), three others probably lost money or best case broke even (Pac Rim, WWZ, Oz) and the other two were likely bailed out only by ancillary tie-ins (Man of Steel, Star Trek).
You think Hollywood would get the hint, that it’s really hard for these mega-budget movies to turn a profit with so much competition and a slowing international marketplace, and it actually seems like there are fewer massive budget spectacles on tap this year, with How to Train Your Dragon 2, Amazing Spider-Man 2, The Hobbit 3, X-Men and Transformers 4 as the only movies with budgets clearly in the $200 million range (with Maleficent possibly there). But 2015 looks like a financial arms race.
1. A large part of the audience likes to see Jihadists portrayed as villains, which Hollywood has generally refused to do.
2. Whatever.
3. No.
4. It’s a bad movie, a poor adaptation of the play.
The problem with Osage County? What? That’s a GREAT number for the film. It’s in less than 1,000 theaters. It’s in almost half the theaters as HER and did better business. Most people were thinking because of reviews it wouldn’t crack the top ten, but it overperformed and it will have a stronger hold on Sunday than most of the other films because of the demographic that it’s targeting.
Yeah, the HER number is a huge downer. There goes its chances for pulling an upset, methinks. Back to a SLAVE vs HUSTLE vs GRAVITY Best Picture race.
I know he’s not really a big name with mass-audience recognition anymore (did his last movie, that found-footage thing, even open in theaters?), but surprised the goofy Hercules trailers never mentioned it was a Renny Harlin film. I know I’m talking 20-some years ago, but in the 90s he was one of the few cult-of-personality directors-as-star guys who had an avalanche of hype and would do talk shows, etc.
And 1) Yeah, Wahlberg is a consistent audience fave, minus the occasional BROKEN CITY that tanks outta nowhere, combined with the word having got out that it’s a “pro” troop/reverent-of-military movie… Not to sound like BIG HOLLYWOOD/BREITBART or anything, but L.A. people/showfolk/whoever do kind of underestimate, time and again, how much non-NYC/LA people like seeing that.
THE LEGEND OF HERCULES?
The problem with Osage County? What?
Vanessa’s right.
Weinstein is probably kicking themselves for not opening on a thousand more screens this weekend.
It’s great counter-programming to “Lone Survivor” (which I knew would explode in wide release).
The avalanche of new TV spots for “Philomena” seem to be having an impact if the ‘plex where I saw “Hercules” today is any indication. The manager I spoke with seemed genuinely baffled that Dame Judi sold out her 1:00 matinee.
Said it was the first time that’s happened since opening November 27th.
Yeah, who did Renny Harlin piss off?
He hasn’t had a decent script/budget since “The Long Kiss Goodnight.”
“Die Hard 2,” “Ford Fairlane” and (esp) “Long Kiss” remain terrific popcorn flicks.
“Hercules”?
Ehhhh.
At least it lacked the pomposity and overweening pretension of those dreary “Thor” movies.
Are you referring to the fact that Fandango has been calling it “Hercules: The Legend Begins,” christian? I believe “Legend of Hercules” is correct.
Also, is “Frozen” now a lock for the animation Oscar?
“Frozen” is a 99% lock I’d think. Hard to imagine enough Academy voters know who Miyazaki is, even if he won with “Spirited Away,” especially since “Wind Rises” isn’t among his very best, so will rely upon his reputation and retirement. And the fact that Disney Animation, embarrassingly, has yet to win the Animated Oscar (when Nickelodeon and Aardman have won and Pixar has 7 wins) means I’m sure they’ll go balls to the wall for “Frozen.” Being the top-grossing animated non-sequel ever (excluding re-issues) is a bonus.
“Philomena” has to be considered a real success at $25 million domestic.
what, are you saying ‘deep blue sea’ wasn’t a fucking sublime screenplay movieman? hahaha (i LOATHE harlin’s nasty, heartless, charmless ‘die hard 2’ and say that as a big-foam-‘numberone’-finger-wearing fan of mcT’s original ‘diehard – when the apocalypse comes i could stage DH for the little surviving children a la bale and butler in ‘reign of fire’ i know it that well – but i have a soft spot for ‘the long kiss goodnight’, davis and samuel L make harlin look good. i think harlin’s been directing in tv land, i remember seeing some episodic thing what i can’t remember what it was and doing a bit of a double-take at the ‘directed by renny harlin’ credit)
Wahlberg did a ton of publicity for Lone Survivor. Of course, he’s also a producer so he has more at stake. Did anyone else cringe at some of the talk show reactions? like Kimmel saying “I really enjoyed it” when the movie is about 19 American soldiers dying, or an audience whooping when a clip is shown of 4 soldiers leaping down a cliff before a bomb explodes behind them. That’s the problem with action movies/video games glorifying war then making a true story inspired war film and getting that reaction. Must hit the families of those who died like a kick in the gut.
Deep Blue Sea has one of the greatest WTF moments of all time. Can’t be more specific than that, lest I spoil the film for anyone here who hasn’t seen it. But anyone who has seen it will know what I mean.
for a moment i thought you were talking about Terence Davies The Deep Blue Sea ….
true dat joe (and also the worst, most laughably silly-looking CG movie sharks ever, almost veering into the ‘so bad they’re good’ spoof camp)
also, there’s never any byobs on the hotblog anymore so just to say i could see Julia R coming out of left field to win the best supporting actress oscar (even though hers is really a leading role in A:OC), on the off chance that happens then i have this thread in which to appear psychic.
Hell has a better chance of freezing over than “Frozen” does of losing the (Best Animated Film) Oscar, Et.
Although considering the kind of winter we’re having in the northeast…
I don’t know anyone who doesn’t love “Frozen,” though, so I’m guessing Oscar voters probably feel the same way as the hoi polloi.
Leah- I actually think Jennifer Lawrence as a better chance at repeating than Roberts does in the best supporting actress race.
But who really knows, right?
Surprises are so few and far between most Oscar nites that anything remotely unexpected usually feels like a blessing from the movie gods.
Is it true that the “12 Years” front-runner was discovered on Tyra Banks’ “America’s Next Top Model” (or whatever the hell it’s called) reality show?
Holy crap, that sucks for HER. That’s too bad. It was a custom made critics’ film, but I get the feeling that guys found it to be a bit too emo and girls maybe found found the concept a bit creepy. Probably didn’t help sell it to mainstream auds that you can’t actually SHOW ScarJo.
I never thought “Her” would cross over to the flyover states anymore than “Being John Malkovich” did.
But like “BJM,” it’s a cult movie for the ages and a film that people will be discovering and falling in love with 50+ years from now.
Re: The jingoism and machismo of “Lone Survivor,” it’s very fitting that it breaks through during the week Congress passes the most bellicose, destructive foreign policy legislation since the Iraq War authorization bill (the bill to blow up negotiations with Iran and essentially encourage them to develop nuclear weapons, hurtling us toward yet another Mideast War ).
movieman, i remember reading something about lupita who plays ‘patsy’ being a classically trained actress, i’d be happy to see her win the statue
(still haven’t seen ‘AmHus’ so can’t form an opinion on jennifer winning [again], but i thought julia shaped quite a disarmingly sharp perf in AOC and i suspect the fairly conservative academy probably loves them some julia, the gracefully aging ‘movie star’ who in recent years anyway keeps a pretty low, controversy-free profile and then lets loose with a bit of a blistering turn alongside the queen matriarch of american cinema, just a feeling she could take it)
Leah- Nothing would make me happier than Jennifer L. winning two years in a row (albeit this time in supporting).
But I don’t realistically see that happening.
Roberts should have no trouble scoring a nomination, though.
She’s very good, and I think the film itself has been somewhat underrated.
Best Actress, S. Actress and (Adapted) Screenplay nominations seem like pretty safe bets.
You think America’s Sweetheart loses to the likes of Nyong’o movieman? Never.
Cate Blanchett will have a bittersweet night. She gets her leading Oscar statuette, only to realize the 23 year old girl next to her also has a Best Actress and Best Supporting Oscar.
I hope you’re right, Et.
Jennifer Lawrence is my sweetheart, too, lol.
But I really do think supporting actress is the best shot “12 Years” has at an acting award.
Well we both lose. Brie Larson makes our women look like….
Blanchett already has a Best Supporting Actress Oscar, too, so I can’t imagine a lot of jealousy of the 23-year-old, except for being 23 years old.
I haven’t seen all the contenders yet, but I’ll be okay with anyone winning except June Squibb. Can’t believe her one-note turn is in the awards conversation. Sure, she gets the crowd-pleasing lines, but the performance is pedestrian and lacks nuance. Considering her SAG nod, a lot of actors aren’t good judges of acting.
Lupita is great, but is definitely this year’s “foreign/unknown actress with a weird name” vote who will never, ever, ever, EVER be nominated for anything ever again. I do this lame riff every year, but how does a Harvey Keitel or Willem Dafoe feel not having ever won an Oscar, then some 9-year-old from the Bayou cast blindly in BEASTS OF SOUTHERN WILD, or a reality-show reject from American Idol, starts getting all the big accolades? Doesn’t that kinda cheapen the brand of acting?
Acting is hard.
yancysk, jts the squibb thing strikes me as one of those ‘supporting’ turns where it’s not so much her acting or supporting role savvy but more in the vein of the small but sharply-realized (often comedic) character role that periodically appears to liven up/punch a hole in proceedings that makes an impression in people’s minds; seems unkind of me to call it ‘gimmicky’ since i thought her long-suffering cantankerous know-it-all endlessly blathering wife was an amusing occasional contrast to the extreme low-key reticence of the rest of the film, but if the shoe fits. it would be funny if she won something and her acceptance speech was, ‘you can all go fuck yourselves!’ though
leah: I have to admit that when I said I “can’t believe” Squibb is getting serious consideration, I was being disingenuous. It’s all too clear that her presumed nomination will be for the character and dialogue, not the performance. I think just about any actress (or even non-actress) of that age would have “[made] an impression in people’s minds.” The role is solid, but it could have been so much more in the right hands. Now I feel bad for ragging on one of my elders. š
Some of this should be laid at Payne’s feet, of course. Dern is perfect, and Forte, Keach and Odenkirk are quite good. Most of the other professional actors do well enough in sketchy, one-dimensional roles. But then there are the obvious non-actors, who were hired for their “authentic” looks but lack the talent to bring their roles to life. If I hadn’t seen Squibb in other films and known of her theatrical past, I’d almost think she was a non-pro. I think Payne was content to let the dialogue do all the work in that role.
I was much more impressed by Mary Louise Wilson, who plays Aunt Martha. She won a Tony for GREY GARDENS and was great as Louis CK’s mother in LOUIE season one.
for me will forte was the super-standout in ‘nebraska’ – maybe just because the material i’d previously seen him in gave no indication he had such a lovely, subtle, endearing performance in him so it took me by surprise (and it’s always a great feeling to be surprised); i’m sure playing off the great veteran dern helped tremendously but forte was the emotional anchor of that extreme non-storm of a movie in my book
Leah: Did I send you a link to my Will Forte interview? He really seems like a down-to-earth guy, and I am glad this movie is giving him a chance to showcase his dramataic chops.
Etguild, I think you missed 47 Ronin as one of 2013’s most expensive misses. It won’t even do good international numbers which the studio was banking on.
Yeah, I really liked the way Forte let his comic chops inflect his performance rather than dominate it. Payne’s casting instincts have often been offbeat but spot on (from Chris Klein and Jessica Campbell in ELECTION to Thomas Haden Church in SIDEWAYS to Shailene Woodley and Matthew Lillard in THE DESCENDANTS), making his stumbles more frustrating. He must really like Squibb — she was Nicholson’s wife in ABOUT SCHMIDT, too.
NO idea why Forte isn’t being talked about at all this awards season… Great as Dern is, long overdue as he is for recognition, I thought Forte was a revelation in it. Thought the movie was one of those 50/50 deals where it was every bit as much his story, coming to terms with his old man, as it was Dern’s.
Larson was revelatory in “Short Term,” Et.
She gave my #1 favorite lead performance by an actress in 2012.
But Amy Adams had an awfully strong ’13, too.
She was equally sensational in “American Hustle” (my favorite Adams perf to date) and “Her.”
Meant to say:
She gave my #1 favorite lead performance by an actress in 2013.
Lex: You hit on part of the answer without trying. In those “50/50 deals” the actor with the least showy role almost never has a chance at a nomination in the lead category, and so gets shunted off to supporting consideration, where the competition is often even showier. This is even more likely if the actor is a newbie (which Forte is not, but may be seen as such by older Academy members). And of course subtle work like Forte’s is always at an inherent disadvantage for making it look too easy.
It’s a little strange that the 12 Years front-runner Lupita Nyong’o is being called here “āforeign/unknown actress with a weird nameā vote who will never, ever, ever, EVER be nominated for anything ever again” or a Tyra Banks discovery when…
Lupita is an actor out of the Yale Drama School. YALE! Yes, she has a potentially LONG career in front of her with 12 Years being her breakout. I mean…her Wikipedia page just screams talent (she also has a lot experience behind the camera as well). What’s it with you guys????
The problem Osage County is having is that half their potential audience is skipping it in favor of seeing Frozen for a third time.