Gurus o’ Gold: Last Stand Before Nominations

Rank	Last Chart	Best Picture	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
1	1	12 Years A Slave	2	3	3	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	15	142
2	3	American Hustle	1	2	1	3	1	3	2	2	3	2	2	2	1	2	2	15	136
3	2	Gravity	3	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	15	126
4	4	Captain Phillips	7	4	4	4	4	4	5	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	15	99
5	5	Nebraska	4	5	5	7	6	5	4	8	5	5	6	6	5	5	6	15	83
6	9	The Wolf of Wall Street	6	10	6	5	8	6	6	3	8	7	5	5	8	6	5	15	71
7	t10	Dallas Buyers Club	9	7	9	9	5	8	8	9	7	6	9	7	7	7	7	15	51
8	7	Her		8	8	6	9	7	7		6	8	7	9	6	8		12	43
9	t10	Philomena	10	6	7	10		9		5		9	8	10			10	10	26
10	8	Saving Mr. Banks	8		10	8	10		10	10	9			8	9	10	9	11	20
	6	Inside Llewyn Davis					7	10	9	7			10					5	12
		Blue Jasmine		9							10				10	9		4	6
One Vote Wonders
	t10	Lee Daniels' The Butler										10						1	1

Dropping off the chart: August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station

The Gurus are offering their opinions about possible surprises on nominations morning. These guesses are slightly skewed by each Guru’s definition of what would be a surprise and what would not. So, if a Guru expects an actor to be nominated, the actor getting nominated is not a surprise to them. Likewise, if they don’t expect someone to be nominated. And so forth…

Rank	Surprisingly In - Picture	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Philomena						*	*		*		1	*	*			6	6
	None	*			*				*								3	3
	Blue Jasmine														*	*	2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Inside Llewyn Davis		*														1	1
	Rush			*													1	1
	All Is Lost					*											1	1
	Lee Daniels' The Butler										*						1	1

Rank	Suprisingly Out - Picture	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Saving Mr. Banks			*			*			*			*			*	5	5
	The Wolf of Wall Street		*		*						*						3	3
	Blue Jasmine	*												*			2	2
	None							*	*								2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Philomena					*											1	1
	Inside Llewyn Davis											*					1	1
	Lee Daniels' The Butler														*		1	1

Surprisingly In - Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street	*	*						*			*		*			5	5
Joaquin Phoenix Her			*		*				*						*	4	4
None				*			*			*		*				4	4
Christian Bale American Hustle						*								*		2	2

Rank	Suprisingly Out - Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Robert Redord All Is Lost	*	*	*	*		*	*	*	*		*	*	*	*	*	13	13
One Vote Wonders
	Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street					*											1	1
	Matthew McConaughey Dallas Buyers Club										*						1	1

Surprsingly In - Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
Amy Adams American Hustle	*				*			*		*	*		*	*		7	7
None		*		*		*	*					*			*	6	6
Adele Exarchopoulos Blue Is The Warmest Color			*						*							2	2

Rank	Last Chart	Suprisingly Out - Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
		Meryl Streep August: Osage County	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	15	15

Rank	Surpringly In - Sppt Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Jonah Hill The Wolf of Wall Street			*							*	*	*				4	4
	None				*			*									2	2
	Wil Forte Nebraska									*				*			2	2
	James Gandolfini Enough Said	*														*	2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Bradley Cooper American Hustle		*														1	1
	John Goodman Inside Llewyn Davis					*											1	1
	George Clooney Gravity						*										1	1
	Matthew McConaughey The Wolf of Wall Street								*								1	1
	Tom Hanks Saving Mr Banks														*		1	1

Rank	Suprisingly Out - Supporting Actor	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	None	*			*			*	*				*		*		6	6
	Daniel Bruhl Rush			*		*	*				*	*					5	5
	Tom Hanks Savng Mr. Banks		*													*	2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Michael Fassbender 12 Years A Slave									*							1	1
	James Gandolfini Enough Said													*			1	1

Rank	Surprisingly In - Sppt Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine	*	*		*	*	*									*	6	6
	None							*	*		*		*		*		5	5
	Octavia Spencer									*				*			2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Jennifer Garner Dalas Buyers Club			*													1	1
	MArgot Robbie The Wolf of Wall Street											*					1	1

Suprisingly Out - Supporting Actress	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
Oprah Winfrey The Butler	*			*	*			*	*						*	6	6
None						*	*			*	*	*		*		6	6
Julia Roberts August: Osage County		*	*										*			3	3

Rank	Surprsingly In- Animated Feature	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	None	*	*	*	*	*	*	*			*	*					9	9
	Ernest & Celestine												*			*	2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Epic									*							1	1
	Turbo								*								1	1
	Despicable Me 2													*			1	1
	Monsters University														*		1	1

Rank	Suprisingly Out - Animated Feature	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	None	*			*	*	*	*	*		*	*	*			*	10	10
	Despicable Me 2		*	*													2	2
One Vote Wonders
	The Wind Rises									*							1	1
	Monsters University													*			1	1
	The Croods														*		1	1

Rank	Surprisingly In - Director	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Spike Jonze Her	*	*								*			*		*	5	5
	None						*	*	*				*				4	4
	Woody Allen Blue Jasmine					*				*							2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Paolo Sorrentino The Great Beauty			*													1	1
	Ryan Coogler Fruitvale Station				*												1	1
	Alexander Payne Nebraska														*		1	1
	Stephen Frears Philomena											*					1	1

Rank	Suprisingly Out - Director	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Thompson	Wloszczyna	Whipp	Votes	Total
	Paul Greengrass Captain Phillips	*	*			*		*		*						*	6	6
	Martin Scorsese The Wolf of Wall Street			*							*		*		*		4	4
	None						*		*			*					3	3
One Vote Wonders
	David O. Russell American Hustle				*												1	1
	Alexander Payne Nebraska													*			1	1

Rank	Will Any Globes Wins Influence Eventual Oscar Wins?	Breznican	Ellwood	Hammond	Harris	Howell	Karger	Olsen	Poland	Pond	NathanielR	Stone	Tapley	Wloszczyna	Votes	Total
	No	*	*		*	*	*	*	*	*			*		9	9
	Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street			*								*			2	2
One Vote Wonders
	Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years A Slave										*				1	1
	American Hustle													*	1	1

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Posted in Awards Update, Awards Watch, Gurus o' Gold, MCN Originals, Movie City News | 9 Comments »

9 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Last Stand Before Nominations”

Henry R. Schrader says:

January 14, 2014 at 2:37 am

Karger is ridiculous putting Clooney in his “suprisingly in”s
Walter Prado says:

January 14, 2014 at 3:00 am

BEST MOTION PICTURE:

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks

> The Butler

>> Dallas Buyers Club

BEST DIRECTING:

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her

> Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Robert Redford, All is Lost

> Forest Whitaker, The Butler

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

> Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

> Daniel Brühl, Rush

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

> Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

American Hustle, David O. Russell & Eric Singer
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Inside Llewyn Davis, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen

> Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen & John Ridley
Philomena, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Before Midnight, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

> August: Osage County, Tracy Letts

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin & Beverley Dunn
12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen & Alice Baker
Gravity, Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent
American Hustle, Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler

> Saving Mr. Banks, Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
Prisoners, Roger Deakins
To the Wonder, Emmanuel Lubezki

> Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
Saving Mr. Banks, Daniel Orlandi
American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
The Invisible Woman, Michael O’Connor

> Oz the Great and Powerful, Gary Jones

BEST FILM EDITING:

Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker

> Rush, Dan Hanley & Mike Hill

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby

> The Lone Ranger

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
Gravity, Steven Price
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
The Book Thief, John Williams
Captain Phillips, Henry Jackman

> All is Lost, Alex Ebert

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Gravity
Captain Phillips
Rush
Inside Llewyn Davis
All is Lost

> The Great Gatsby

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Gravity
Captain Phillips
Rush
All is Lost
Man of Steel

> Elysium

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

> Elysium

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

“Let It Go”, Frozen
“Young and Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby
“Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“The Moon Song”, Her
“Amen”, All is Lost

> “So You Know What It’s Like”, Short Term 12

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

The Wind Rises
Frozen
Monsters University
Ernest & Celestine
The Croods

> Despicable Me 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

> Omar (Palestine)
spassky says:

January 14, 2014 at 6:56 am

I loved it, but no way in hell Academy will recognize “Short Term 12” (hell, “Fruitvale” will most likely be completely snubbed)… I wish the Indie Spirits were actually rewarding these small films that receive little to no recognition by AMPAS. Of course, “Short Term 12” was recognized by Indie Spirits noms, but I will almost be surprised if they give any of the big awards out to the film. Hopefully, it will at least go to Delpy, because AMPAS is so full of fucking shit, that I would be floored if “Before Midnight” even got a paltry Best Original Screenplay nom.

This is a great year for film, and yet it’s the same old bullshit at AMPAS. Yeah, great, give Robert Redford something, wonderful (what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”) — “All is Lost” is utter shit compared to the great films of this year, it really is. And if Dern gets snubbed in favor of Redford, well then every level of self-congratulatory recognition is for nothing. Like, we all deal with this oligarchic crap in the academy just so a guy like Dern can get an award, or at least a nom…

Sorry for rant, but it just seems like the awards season gets so unneccessarily whorey in a year where there’s so much good product.
Walter Prado says:

January 14, 2014 at 12:56 pm

MY FINAL PREDICTIONS:

BEST MOTION PICTURE:

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks

> The Butler

>> Dallas Buyers Club

BEST DIRECTING:

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her

> Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Robert Redford, All is Lost

> Forest Whitaker, The Butler

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

> Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

> Daniel Brühl, Rush

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

> Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

American Hustle, David O. Russell & Eric Singer
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Inside Llewyn Davis, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen

> Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen & John Ridley
Philomena, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
Before Midnight, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater

> August: Osage County, Tracy Letts

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin & Beverley Dunn
12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen & Alice Baker
Gravity, Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent
American Hustle, Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler

> Saving Mr. Banks, Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
Prisoners, Roger Deakins
To the Wonder, Emmanuel Lubezki

> Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
Saving Mr. Banks, Daniel Orlandi
American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
The Invisible Woman, Michael O’Connor

> Oz the Great and Powerful, Gary Jones

BEST FILM EDITING:

Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker

> Rush, Dan Hanley & Mike Hill

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby

> The Lone Ranger

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Gravity, Steven Price
12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
The Book Thief, John Williams
Captain Phillips, Henry Jackman

> All is Lost, Alex Ebert

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Gravity
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
All is Lost

> The Great Gatsby

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Gravity
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
Rush
Iron Man 3

> All is Lost

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

> Elysium

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

“Let It Go”, Frozen
“Young and Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby
“Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“The Moon Song”, Her
“Amen”, All is Lost

> “So You Know What It’s Like”, Short Term 12

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Frozen
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
Ernest & Celestine
The Croods

> Despicable Me 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

> Omar (Palestine)
pj says:

January 14, 2014 at 5:38 pm

How could Nyongo’o’s win influence oscar if she did not win? But glad to see Hustle rise all the way up to 2nd.
nathaniel r says:

January 14, 2014 at 9:26 pm

pj — i meant that her loss could influence oscar voters because most people seemed to be upset by it. but i guess there’s no way to show that on a chart like this.
Sam says:

January 15, 2014 at 9:16 am

“(what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”)”

A star that would last as a fad for a couple years, sure. But for that person to be a working legend 47 years later, he’d have to be the real deal.

That said, I don’t disagree with your preference for seeing Dern nominated. Dern has been solid and great for so many years and not generally been recognized for it. Redford has had no shortage of accolades. I do see Dern’s nomination as more secure than Redford’s, though, and a decent chance that both will be nominated.
Kozy Jerzinski says:

January 15, 2014 at 5:52 pm

“(what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”)”

Only story I remember Goldman telling along those lines was when he made fun of a studio executive who dismissed Redford with “Throw a stick at Malibu, you’ll hit six of him.”
Doah says:

January 16, 2014 at 12:35 pm

You guys are great, really! Look at the top 9 pictures! You all nailed it! And, the Gurus’ 10th picture, SAVING MR. BANKS, didn’t make it. Really love this site. I especially like Tapley’s podcast.