Friday Estimates by Klady: Rise of an Umpire
So 300: Rise of an Empire opened well enough… albeit 38% off the original. It’s the best opening day of the year so far, but will likely do about half the business today (Saturday) that The Lego Movie did on its first Saturday. Mostly, that’s the difference between family films are hard-R movies. Interestingly, 300: Rise is only off 17% on the Tomatometer from the original.
In the end, I would expect 300 Jr. to do about the same or a little less than Ride Along for 4x the price and considerably higher P&A. That’s the domestic picture. The real question, as it always is with bad movies that look really cool, is what the international will be. On the first film, the international was slightly higher than domestic. But the international market has expanded dramatically since 2007, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see this one do $250m internationally again, making the picture pretty profitable.
Mr. Peabody & Sherman pushed the Dogfather line really, really hard for a really, really long time and it may have killed the pooch… as it makes no sense and certainly is not a draw for children and parents of small children. On the high end of the DreamWorks’ Animation catalog, able to entertain both the little ones and the parents dragged to the theater, Peabody may need to get into the Wayback Machine to get this one past $100m domestic, which is the low bar for animated success these days. Internationally, I have no idea at all whether it will play, how they will see a dog in charge, whether there is any Jay Ward legacy value, etc. DWA had a case last year with The Croods making more than double a somewhat disappointing domestic and Fox’s Ice Age movies do more than triple domestic overseas. So, long view… ???
Oscar holdovers Frozen & 12 Years A Slave got bumps, albeit small ones. Frozen is off just 12% when it might otherwise be expected to drop in the high 20s. And 12 Years is up 156%, though its only to a $1.5m weekend or so.
Also worth noting, The Monuments Men, hit with pretty rough reviews, should get to $70m domestic this weekend and is still in range of (or will be pretty close to) the grosses of Clooney’s lavishly reviewed, Oscar-nominated non-blockbusters Up In The Air and The Descendants. This is a reminder of what Mr. Clooney is as a movie star… and what he is not. But you can color me impressed. This movie has all the earmarks of fading fast and has held tight. Foreign is still a question mark with a lot of territories yet to open.
And in limited, the story is all Wes Anderson. $65k per screen on 4 yesterday should lead to over $175k per for the weekend. Impressive. Did you know that Mr. Anderson has never launched a film on more than 28 screens… and that was Bottle Rocket, his first? All the rest have started on 5 screens or fewer. This is the biggest start he has ever had, following the 2nd biggest domestic grosser of his career, Moonrise Kingdom. Extrapolating out… a long way… this could well be Wes Anderson’s biggest domestic grosser, topping The Royal Tennenbaums’ $52.4 million. (If you are wondering about international, Anderson has been a surprisingly mixed bag, but never has done big numbers overseas. His biggest was Fantastic Mr. Fox with just over $25m.)
Adopt really screwed up the release(s) of “Omar” and “Bethlehem.”
They should have distanced them by more than a couple of weeks so their surface similarities wouldn’t have seemed as conspicuous to prospective ticket buyers.
Both are really strong films that deserved to find a theatrical audience; and might have at a less Darwinian period for independent/subtitled movies.
Predictably awesome per-screen numbers for Wes.
The impending nat’l expansion/rollout will tell the real story, though.
Not just impressive numbers, but the best numbers EVER per theater excluding specialty Disney experiences and the “Kevin Smith in person” RED STATE screening. As Nikki would say, YOWZA!
Decent number for PARTICLE FEVER, which is just a truly outstanding doc, could be nominated next year if people remember it. Sad number for JOURNEY TO THE WEST, which is a ton of weird fun and the very solid thriller IN FEAR. Both are VOD though, or were.
Eva Green makes 300 bearable. She whips through the movie like a Spartan brigade of one.
Not to be overly cynical but isn’t Peabody a significantly deep reach into the IP vault? I thought this might have ended with land of the lost and green hornet, but the b feature to a sixties cartoon? Is there anything more obscure to adapt? Captain Caveman, Adam Ant, Hong Kong Phooey?
Captain Caveman, Adam Ant, Hong Kong Phooey?
“The Banana Splits,” maybe?
“H.R. Pufnstuf”?
Anderson…never has done big numbers overseas.
I think the Euro-centric (Euro-fetishist?) “Budapest” could be the Wes movie to finally do the trick internationally.
I think Anderson has done surprisingly well overseas, though he hasn’t put up big numbers, just like here in the States. Neither “Bottle Rocket” or “Rushmore” were released internationally, so “Tenenbaums” and “Life Aquatic” was his first exposure.
“Darjeeling” really got bailed out internationally…it would have been his second straight failure but doubled the domestic gross. Ditto with “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” which did more internationally. Without those grosses, I doubt “Moonrise Kingdom” gets made.
“Kingdom” has a very specific New England/boyhood Americana feel to it that I can’t imagine would translate outside of North America at all, so matching “Darjeeling” is really quite an accomplishment.
David, why are you surprised by MONUMENTS MEN’s legs? If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the past two decades, it’s that boomer-targeted films almost always open decently and hold really well.
It was actually Atom Ant, FWIW. Maybe if Ant Man is a hit, Atom Ant will get dusted off. Or how about Inch High Private Eye?
Interesting that 3 Days to kill is sticking around somewhat, whereas Robocop and Pompeii are already outta there. COSTNER POWER.
If Ant-man is w hit, maybe Adam Ant will hit the comeback trail.
The Banana Splits had a fairly big following internationally. But maybe one of their obscure segments might be ripe for a remake. Would Richard Donner like to have another go at “Danger Island” for today’s kids? How about “Sigmund and the Sea Monsters” or “Dr. Shrinker”?
Just watched “Nymphomaniac, Volume 1” on PPV.
Brilliant!
If “Volume 2” is as good, this could very well by von Trier’s
“Masterpiece”–and I think he’s already made his fair share of
masterpieces (“Breaking the Waves” and “Melancholia” in particular).
The cast is extraordinary, and some of them (Skarsgaard, Gainsbourg)
are doing career work.
Uma hasn’t been this good since the “Kill Bill”s, Shia has never been
better and I don’t think Christian Slater has been as impressive
since…”Heathers”? Ever? Who even knew that he had it in him?
Re: the NC-17 rating.
“Nymphomaniac” makes “Blue is the Warmest Color” look like “Mary
Poppins.” Or at least “Saving Mr. Banks.”
It’s amusing to think what ’60s audiences who routinely queued up for
Isabel Sarli and Radley Metzger “art” movies would have made of it.
What did you think, Et?
Actually, Adam Ant released a new CD in 2013 and went on tour to support it (even visited the US).
It was entitled “Adam Ant is The BlueBlack Hussar In Marrying The Gunner’s Daughter”.
A single “Cool Zombie” had a video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3myAmL-9870
I mistyped it was atom ant, up and at ’em atom ant, and not the Adam ant that battled xtc on the pop charts. I remember it from the banana splits which someone else mentioned above.
And I am surprised danger mouse hasn’t been resurrected in the great nostalgia cash in
Probably nobody knows or cares or whatever, but what on earth, what on EARTH, is with that VERONICA MARS movie coming out in a week or so? I thought they raised all that fuss to Kickstart a theatrical film, and indeed I saw the trailer at least twice (both times in an AMC theater)…
Now I find out it’s just some rented-theater AMC event deal where it’s basically a PPV movie that AMC is gonna book in a few theaters? Was that always the plan??? If so, why didn’t they just make it for tv or VOD in the first place? I thought it was some 3,000-theater legit movie, now it just sounds like some total fan-wank. I didn’t watch the show, so I have no investment either way, but at what point did WB throw in the towel? If it was always the plan, seems like a really strange hybrid of actual movie and low-rent tv episode being simulcast strictly for fans.
Also doesn’t say much about the size or enthusiasm of the VERONICA MARS fanbase that after making ALL THAT NOISE FOR YEARS, they’re too lazy to leave the house to see a movie of their beloved show.
Cool, guys, good conversation. ZING.
Lex the reason why WB isn’t putting all that much effort into VERONICA MARS is that assuming that the film lets just say cost 10 Mill than lets also say they spend about 5 Mil on other stuff booking, advertising etc.It would have to make about 40 Mill just to break and that on an obscure formerly UPN/CW show which at it’s height had 2.5 Mill viewers.Leverage baby.
Either my above post is invisible, or people can’t be assed to read a tiny handful of responses before redundantly chiming in re Atom/Adam Ant. Not that it matters a bit – I just find it amusing.
“What did you think, Et?”
Seeing it tonight š Comcast doesn’t premiere it till today in my area for some reason….
Yeah the VERONICA MARS effort is a strange one. Seems like they’d have been better served by doing what 24 and HEROES are doing with their comebacks. I’m still confused…is there only one showing at the same time? Jack1137 makes good points…if the chatter of a SMALLVILLE transition movie to the big screen for Tom Welling (while the show was at its peak) never materialized, you can forget VERONICA MARS.
I feel for Kristen Bell though. Genuinely talented, but instead of the next big thing she’s going to go down for a cult TV show and as Mandy Moore 2.0 (voiced Rapunzel in Tangled) for voicing the lead in one of Disney’s biggest cartoons. At least Jessica Biel got Justin Timberlake.
Comcast doesnāt premiere it till today in my area for some reasonā¦.
But your cable provider probably has the IFC Channel (and IFC PPV titles) which mine, sadly, doesn’t.
If I lived a block away, I’d have access to all the goodies IFC has to offer.
Dammit.
Curious to hear your thoughts on the von Trier film, Et.
Quite a start to 2014 w/ the near-simultaneous release of Wes and Lars’ latest masterpieces.
Back when we had satellite, IFC never seemed to play any actual indie films, and was trying to morph into some Comedy Central plus horror on the side entity. It was sundance which was hidden in a more expensive package that held all the goodies
The reason the IFC Channel remains the Holy Grail for me, Hcat, is because cable providers that include it also offer IFC releases as VODs.
I keep telling my cable company they’re losing money (at least from me, lol) by not adding IFC.
Not particularly interested in any of their original programming.
He’s no Timberlake, but Dax Shephard aint nothing to sneeze at. Er..right?
The Veronica Mars movie is screening on a regular schedule – it’s not one of those Fathom simulcast Met Opera things. My understanding is that WB had to rent the theaters from Loews because Loews otherwise won’t book movies that do the day & date theatrical/VOD thing.
Shephard has come a long way since his days as a merry “Jackass” prankster.
He’s terrific on “Parenthood,” and I really enjoyed 2013’s “Hit & Run.”
I can’t believe you folks don’t find Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard absolutely toxically smarmy and self-important. They seem to fancy themselves a D-list version of Brad and Angelina; Dax used to seem like this fun, pranksterish guy, he’s become the ultimate indoor housecat muted henpeck, and Bell is a loudmouth fond of proclaiming every predictable L.A. idiot thought that pops into her head. She’s also extremely unfunny, and definitely a TV actress.
Lex, that’s a nice fantasy you wrote there. Unfortunately, reality still doesn’t dig your fantasy. Nevertheless, VM sold a ton on DVD. Go look it up if you want. Also, Warners didn’t pay for this film. Fans did. If Warners can’t spend money for a property that has already MADE THEM MONEY, then they deserve the shitty and expensive stratosphere in which they currently reside in as a studio.
One more thing: Ethan, that’s a nonsensical statement, about “Moonrise Kingdom.” The movie may be set in New England, but it’s not about New England. It’s about young love and most people, can identify with that feeling.
I don’t know what you mean by shitty stratosphere, Lego and gravity were universally praised and gigantic hits, her and prisoners were studio movies made for actual adults. As far as the studios go they seem to be the only one with their shit together (Disney does great business as well but they’re a toy factory not a studio, Universal runs hot for awhile and then ice cold, paramount does some strong work but goes six months without a release).
I don’t see how Warner’s reluctance to beat the theatrical drum for some reunion episode for a marginally watched tv show no matter how beloved is some major strike against them.. This is like the arrested development revival, why can’t people just let the shows go? They had a multi year run be happy with what’s out there and move on with what lives you have.
It’s Dax Shepard. And did he ever have anything to do with “Jackass?”
Punk’d, not Jackass.
I believe movieman meant to say that Dax was a merry jackass/prankster. Not a merry “Jackass” prankster.
“One more thing: Ethan, thatās a nonsensical statement, about āMoonrise Kingdom.ā The movie may be set in New England, but itās not about New England.”
I don’t think you understood my point. The aesthetic is very specifically Northeastern. The movie is a 9.0 on the seismic “old New England kitsch sensibility scale,” and stuff like that tends to turn off international audiences big time. The biggest Bollywood movies ever made sell as many tickets as “Avatar,” but almost never do more than $10 million outside of India. Why? They have a precious regional aesthetic that doesn’t translate well, despite the “universal love” themes present in each and every one. On the other end: “Grand Budapest Hotel” is about more than the inner workings of an old Hungarian hotel, but appealing narrative is not precisely the reason it took Europe by storm this weekend, relative to all of Anderson’s other works.
Or take “Intouchables,” a groan-inducing, so obtuse it beats you over the head movie about racial harmony. It can do $400 million internationally outside of Hollywood, because it doesn’t have a particularly French sensibility.
Mea culpa.
Yep, I meant “Prank’d,” not “Jackass.”
Same MTV well.
You didn’t mean “Prank’d” either. š
Was about to chime in Re: Moonrise Kingdom to say exactly what EtGuild said there, only I’m sure I’d have been more clumsy about it.
Some movies have an internal rhythm that is very particular to a certain culture or subculture, and Moonrise Kingdom definitely feels like one of them. As a New Englander myself, it’s easy to recognize that there is a humor and demeanor that is particular to the region. (I consider it a feat of ingeniousness that the film is unmistakably representing *Wes Anderson’s* humor and demeanor while remaining recognizably northeastern.)
It’s not difficult to imagine a foreign audience relating to the themes, appreciating the craftsmanship, and yet not quite getting in lockstep with its sensibility — just as I, similarly, sometimes run across a foreign film I admire but do not quite grok.
Universal themes, yes, but not so universal in their expression.
Yikes, I just looked up INTOUCHABLES and I can’t believe that drivel made 2.5x as much as AMELIE. Was it France’s version of CRASH?
WTF?
“Punked”? “Punk’d”?
I’m dying here, lol.