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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady Is for Real

Weekedn Estimates 2014-04-20 at 9.13.29 AM

Not a ton more to say about this weekend after yesterday’s entry.

God’s Not Dead missed joining Heaven Is For Real in the Top 10 by about $500k. Son of God makes its last appearance in the Top 25 in time for Easter, as it looks to close with a flat $60m domestic.

The Grand Budapest Hotel, Under the Skin, and The Lunchbox lead in per-screen for under-1500 screen, over-150 screen runs.

Just noticed that Veronica Mars, which raised over $5 million for production, grossed $3.3 million in theatrical.

The Million Dollar Club for films on under 500 screens this year is (in order of domestic gross):

$5m+ – The Wind Rises

$3m+ – Veronica Mars

$2m+ – The Lunchbox
The Raid 2

$1m+ – Le Week-End
Tim’s Vermeer
Jai Ho
Under the Skin

4 from Sony, 2 from Roadside Attractions, and 6 others have 1 film each on the list. Notably, nothing from IFC or Magnolia, which says nothing about the quality of the films these two VOD leaders have distributed or the skill with which they are publicized and marketed… and a ton about the glass ceiling distribution universe being created by a VOD-first marketplace.

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32 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady Is for Real”

  1. movieman says:

    With a 39% second weekend drop (and $20-million cume), “Draft Day” should at least beat “Three Days to Kill.”

    And “Budapest Hotel” has now matched “Moonrise Kingdom”‘s domestic cume.
    I still think it can match (or best) “Tenenbaums.”
    Impressive opening for John Turturro’s “Fading Gigolo.”
    Maybe Searchlight should have released it instead of “Dom Hemingway” which pretty much sank without a trace despite great notices for Jude Law.
    Like most Millennium titles, “FG” already had a DVD release date set (August 19th) before opening in theaters, so its long range expansion prospects probably aren’t great.

  2. chris says:

    Looks like “Noah” may have gotten a little bump from Easter, too.

  3. Daniel says:

    Dave, Do you know the story with the Veronica Mars VOD numbers? Both Rob Thomas and Kristen Bell said in interviews they were very confident they could hit the number they needed to hit to green light a sequel. I’m sure that number was more than the $3.3 mil theatrical. I think the movie was selling on iTunes for $20 a pop. Surely they made a ton more money off that than in theaters.

  4. cadavra says:

    As I believe I said earlier, had Warners held back VOD for two weeks, or even one, the VERONICA theatrical would’ve been much higher. Shame, really. They may indeed have made more money, but they damaged the brand and made a sequel less likely.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    NOAH now looks like it’s actually going to make money. Big jump internationally, and $350 million worldwide looks likely.

    Seems like CAP 2 has a pretty good shot at topping the worldwide gross for MAN OF STEEL. Pretty stunning to top the first one by $300 million, and you’ve got to think DC may be the one to blink on the CAP 3/BATMAN vs SUPERMAN showdown. I don’t think CAP 3 has any shot to outgross it, but considering Warner Bros is betting the bank on one film….

    Also: not a great start for SPIDER-MAN. Seems like The Captain may have stolen its thunder. Thank god there are no tentpoles opening for almost a month, huh?

  6. pat says:

    I predict Noah is going to make a big splash in China, especially given that country’s tragic flood history.

  7. LexG says:

    NOBODY here will care, but Nymphomaniac Vol 2 isn’t even playing in theaters that both PLAYED Vol 1 and ADVERTISED it as “Coming Soon.” What madness is that? I saw (and loved) 1 a couple weeks ago at a Laemmle’s theater in LA, they had posters everywhere saying Vol 2 was “coming soon,” it was advertised in their flier to open Fri the 17th, and they ran the trailer immediately before 1…

    It has apparently been dropped without explanation… I’ve been super pissed about this and tweeted them and got a not-very-convincing “eh, maybe we’ll get it in a week or two.” Just SUPER ANNOYING that North Hollywood Laemmles PASSED on Vol 2 of this Von Trier epic but this week has real estate for AUTHORS ANONYMOUS, which surely isn’t selling a single ticket at some showtimes.

  8. movieman says:

    Funny; loved Sony worldwide distribution topper Bruer’s defensive, even snappish tone here:

    “The film (‘Heaven is for Real’) really does promote a dialogue among so many people, whether you believe or not,” Rory Bruer added.

    Also pretty amusing was WB disturb exec Jeff Goldstein’s “duh!” take on why “Transcendence” stiffed:

    “Audiences are very sophisticated,” noted Goldstein, “and for the general public this just didn’t look like anything they wanted to see.”

  9. EtGuild2 says:

    I liked Volume 2 a lot Lex. I saw Volume 1 in the theater, but it was an easy bet that Volume 2 wouldn’t be booked after you see it….

  10. LexG says:

    Heh, now I want to see it even more; It’s still getting 2 shows a day at one independent theater here that’s a haul and a half for my crappy car, but hopefully I can catch it; Seeing part 1 on a theater screen then having to OnDemand part 2 is, to me, like if the theater owner turned off the projector midway through a movie and told you to go home and watch the rest on YouTube. That’s entirely my own moviegoing OCD of course, but I stubbornly have to see any movie I’m even mildly interested in in a theater, since I don’t have Netflix, there are no videostores anymore, and even when I do try watching a movie at home in this post-internet age, my attention is bouncing all over like Flubber and it takes me about seven hours to watch a 90 minute movie.

  11. JS Partisan says:

    Veronica Mars brand damaged? How? People bought it like crazy on BD from Amazon, on VOD, and for 20 bucks on Apple. If anything, that brand has about 10 or more million in it. After watching that movie though, they need to bring it back as a show, but a show on HBO or Showtime. 6 to 13 episodes, would be perfect for a new mature Veronica Mars.

    And the Christians love their PERSECUTION complex!

  12. YancySkancy says:

    “Audiences are very sophisticated…”

    I can’t believe people still drag out this old saw.

  13. Big G says:

    Amazing that Frozen has grossed $399.9 domestic. Guess Disney will keep it on a handful of screens until it crawls to $400 million. Can’t remember anything like that happening. Only other example I can think of is Parenthood in 1989 which grossed $99 million. Universal even went through the trouble of re-releasing it in theaters in 1994 for the sole purpose of making Howard & Grazer happy and getting it over the $100 million mark.

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah Von Trier’s movies are really all meant to be seen in a theater. I was so upset I had to see “AntiChrist” at home.

    And re: FROZEN, don’t be surprised if Disney pulls a POLAR EXPRESS and goes for an annual holiday re-release.

  15. SamLowry says:

    Yeah, audiences are so sophisticated that they’re twice as likely to spend their money on an afterlife fairytale than face the reality that brain death is permanent death if you don’t have a backup plan.

    And on what holiday would Disney re-release a movie about a terrorist who was proud about what she did–9/11?

  16. Amblinman says:

    “when I do try watching a movie at home in this post-internet age, my attention is bouncing all over like Flubber and it takes me about seven hours to watch a 90 minute movie.”

    Holy shit is this spot on. I almost cannot watch movies at home anymore. Besides the internet, my wife and I are in our 40’s and have been together for a long time. This means yes, we’ve become the people that talk through a movie. Not in a theater. I’ll still cut a motherfucker who talks in a theater…well…more like stare and shushhh a motherfucker who talks in a theater cause I’m a white short guy who no one is afraid of. Anyway, trying to watch a movie at home is a losing proposition. Internet, wife, dogs, and man o man this couch is comfortable, maybe I’ll just close my eyes for a second and Zzzzzzz

  17. indiemarketer says:

    Feeling too good from the “High Holiday” and just want to “Passover” the disaster that is TRANSCENDENCE (can’t buy your way into a box office WB when people hate your movie even though you can’t help yourself from spending) and the blah blah studio and films that are Open Road?

  18. berg says:

    Transcendence is not a disaster … on a genre level it may not be as good as say Source Code but it is hardly a train wreck … people should see more movies instead of judging them in the court of public tomatoes …. as far as Nympho Vol. 1 I really like how she used the Fibonacci sequence to parallel park ….

  19. indiemarketer says:

    Not a disaster?! From a business perspective (WB doesn’t care about art) it sure is…production budget north of $100 million and WB spends more in marketing than any studio in town to get a $10.9M opening weekend?! Feel free to head to Burbank to see if they are popping the champagne.

  20. indiemarketer says:

    Maybe 3,455 screens isn’t enough for you?

  21. Hcat says:

    None of the 100 million production budget came from Warner’s, that was all Alcon and china who have it pretty much covered in foreign presales. The losses on this film will be spread out among distributors in each market, likely not making too much of a dent in any one place.

    But that being sAid it is preposterous that anyone pays depp 20 million for any film that is not primarily advertised on icarly. His smashes have all been kiddie fare and adult stuff has struggled to break even. Didn’t he take around 20 mil for Rum Diary? His labor of love? Isn’t his price a problem with that whitey bulger biopic? I am fine with him squeezing every dime possible out of Disney with whatever spastic twit he wants to play, but if he ever wants to play anything flesh and blood (and I realize the irony of this statement) he should adjust his quote accordingly.

  22. Vaus says:

    hcat, Rum Diary director Bruce Robinson said in an indiewire interview that Depp did not take a fee in order to get the film made. If Depp was being paid from profits, he probably got close to zero.

  23. Hcat says:

    I stand corrected about rum diary, thought I had read that he still got top dollar for that. However, I would still say outside of silly family epics he is still the same draw he was in his from hell, chocolat days.

  24. Spassky says:

    I know I’m late to the game, but I’ve been living in Beijing for a while and I finally got down to Hong Kong to see “Grand Budapest…”

    Not going to prattle on, but I’m very very glad that this is doing so well. Reminds me of my grandpa’s stories of his uncles and aunts (RIP Leonard).

    Also, Nymphomaniac Dos is playing here… not sure what that says, but I’m sure international is dealing with it easier (have already seen both volumes on a… gulp… bootleg blown up on projection in some DIY joint [edit] in Beijing)…

  25. storymark says:

    “Maybe 3,455 screens isn’t enough for you”

    Seriously?? It could be 10,000 screens. If no one is actually watching them – its a disaster.

  26. cadavra says:

    JS: I meant that VERONICA’s brand was damaged as a theatrical franchise. Yes, it will always have a welcoming home on the tube, but talk of a big-screen sequel has understandably cooled. I could see the CW bringing it back as, say, a 10-ep summer series, much as the bigger nets do with ROOKIE BLUE, UNFORGETTABLE, et al.

  27. brack says:

    Transcendence looked like crap to begin with. No one should be shocked it didn’t open well. It looked like a remake of The Lawnmower Man or something. It looks like a DTV release.

  28. YancySkancy says:

    Wow, there should be a dedicated thread about the just-announced PEEPS movie. There are so many ways they can go with it — there’s the yellow peeps, of course, but also pink, blue and green. I expect they’ll include the bunny peeps, but it might be hard to build a character around a marshmallow heart peep. My personal choice would be the Rainbow Pop (basically four peeps skewered by a stick) featured in a HUMAN CENTIPEDE-type plot.

  29. Chucky says:

    “And on what holiday would Disney re-release a movie about a terrorist who was proud about what she did–9/11?”

    Patriots Day, third Monday of April, when Big Government and the liberal media turn the Boston Marathon into a homegrown Nuremberg rally.

  30. christian says:

    Every televised brutal sporting event you watch, propped up by brand name droppers and taxpayer kickbacks are far more Nuremberg Rally, you loon.

  31. SamLowry says:

    Every time I hear “Let It Go,” I imagine John Wayne Gacy facing off against his parole board, saying “I don’t see why you’re still mad. C’mon, y’all need to let it go.” He raises his manacled wrists to the board, adding “I’ll let bygones be bygones if you will,” and then he wiggles his eyebrows suggestively.

    He’s not wearing clown makeup, though. That would be creepy.

  32. berg says:

    what the heck? Rio 2 isn’t the sequel to Blame It On Rio?

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Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
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3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
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