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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by No Good Tale Klady

Weekend Estimates 2014-09-14 at 9.34.54 AM

Not a whole lot more to say about this weekend. The weekend estimates are a bit better than I expected based on Friday estimates.

Screen Gems seems to be back in its groove with its third $10m opening in four films released so far this year.

Dolphin Tale 2 is another Alcon film, released by WB, that like its predecessor found an audience that studios don’t spend a lot of time working for anymore.

Guardians of the Galaxy passes the elusive $300 million domestic mark. Absolutely a phenom. Even though based on a comic, unknown enough to really be seen as an original. Shows how helpful it is to have some free space after your opening. Not as big a hit overseas, though that was the trajectory for Marvel’s Captain America and Thor as well.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will likely be the 9th $200 million domestic grosser of the summer. $350 million worldwide is in range. $400 million would require some very strong performances in still unopened international markets.

The Drop is a… not great success. Whether its international cast can drive greater numbers is to be seen.

One of the unacknowledged hits of the summer is Let’s Be Cops, which is, I think, the least expensive film released by a studio this summer, and is not only going to do over $80m domestic, but will be over $100m worldwide.

Luc Besson’s Lucy, by the way, has almost doubled its domestic gross and is now over $350 million worldwide.

Also stronger than the stories out there would suggest was The Hundred Foot Journey, which will pass $50m domestic this week and hasn’t yet started overseas.

The Expendables 3 has tripled its domestic gross internationally… but that is because domestic is so weak and is probably still not enough to make the film profitable.

On the indie side, Boyhood is the top limited domestic release (under 1000 screens) of 2014 so far (and of this week), now slowing to under $1m a week with $21.8 million. Number 2 indie for the year is A Most Wanted Man, with $16.6m. #3 is Belle, with $10.7 million.

Indie newcomers are led in per-screen by Roadside’s The Skeleton Twins and in gross by Fox International’s Finding Fanny.

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23 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by No Good Tale Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    I took my nephew to “Guardians” last night and noticed something odd…only a single preview for an upcoming 3D live action film (The Hobbit finale). Checked the studio schedule, and sure enough, it’s the only movie on the slate till 2015 (excluding niche concert films/docs, or animation where we can expect the trend to not ever let up). In fact, there are only two others scheduled before next May (and one is “Jupiter Ascending” which was moved).

    2014 will be the first drop in overall number of wide release 3D films (including animation) since the rise of the trend in 2009. I wonder if it’s a blip or what. I’m hopeful that we’re going to see a big drop in the number of under $150 million productions that use it.

  2. chris says:

    “Stronger than stories out there would suggest.” You kinda started that, no?
    “The Hundred-Foot Journey seeks to counterprogram with food and Indian culture and Helen Mirren getting her groove back in what used to be the Meryl Streep summer romance slot. What Disney found out the hard way is that Helen Mirren isn’t Meryl Streep or Julia Roberts and no amount of Oprah thrown at the marketing – which by the way, is not selling what the movie IS, which is a problem – could make her so. Of course, the last Meryl Streep effort in this slot opened to $14 million, which is why there hasn’t been one in a couple years. This open is “only” 20% off that.”

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    Here’s another that Dave kinda started or at least contributed to:

    Here is his take on Tammy most recently.

    “These films are victims of hit-and-run journalism, which can’t pay attention to anything for longer than the length of a Twitter trend.”

    “Meanwhile, Let’s Be Cops, yet another summer movie that was written off by most writers on opening weekend, will pass $70 million domestic today. And let’s not forget Tammy, which was overhyped as a feminist issue, but grossed $84 million domestic and was not a summer miss, but rather, a success. These films are victims of hit-and-run journalism, which can’t pay attention to anything for longer than the length of a Twitter trend”

    And here is his take when it first opened:

    “People love Ms. McCarthy – and with good reason – and don’t want to see her or her career suffer. I get it. I kinda fall in line with it. But this was her free kick, like it or not, and she blew it. Now it’s back to being the scene-stealing sidekick for 5 years or so until she gets another shot. Or until she comes up with a great script for an indie that will get her raves at Sundance. And before anyone throws out the bait, this is not about her being a funny woman or being heavy. This is the way business always works, male or female, fat or thin. If this was a big hit, she would have 3 shots to fail afterwards before being sent back to the ($8 million a film) minors.”

    Once again, there is no shame in being wrong, but admit you were part of the hit and run journalism that you accuse others of.

  4. Hallick says:

    Yeah Bulldog, that Tammy comment had me wondering why he was throwing the same elbow at other writers that he threw at McCarthy in that paragraph you reposted.

  5. jepressman says:

    Supposition: Poland probably figures that most HB readers won’t recall what he wrote about the Cops film or Tammy,but some of us do remember and wonder why Poland is so negative. What does he get out of running down successful film actors movies? What movie crystal ball is Poland peering into these days?

  6. cadavra says:

    HUNDRED-FOOT’s domestic take has already exceeded that of MARIGOLD HOTEL; it should easily hit 60. Pretty damn fine for a movie with a completely foreign cast, foreign locations, dialogue in at least three languages and a plot that was similar to two other films in the past six months. Happy to realize that we geezers haven’t completely given up on theatre-going after all. Now let’s see if Om Puri, in the role of his lifetime, can manage a Supporting Oscar nomination.

  7. Bitplayer says:

    No discussion of how Hollywood continues to ignore “urban” audiences. Or how Idris Elba is the male lead of a movie that opens to number one. When a year ago he was pushed out of a lead role by Tyler Perry because, per James Patterson, he was more “box office”. Something totally not true unless he wears a dress.

  8. WG says:

    “Let’s Be Cops, which is, I think, the least expensive film released by a studio this summer”

    Let’s Be Cops: $17 million (reportedly).
    The Fault in Our Stars: $12 million.
    If I Stay: $11 million.
    The Purge: Anarchy: $9 million.

  9. David Poland says:

    Bulldog –

    This is the 4th or 5th time this summer I have spoken to the fact that I was wrong about the upside on Tammy. But I was also not nearly as severe as the vast majority of coverage out there. As you quote, I was not questioning her career… just whether she would get another shot at a solo film under her own conditions.

    And you leave out other context… like what was, as I recall, a “this is a success happening” string of notes about Let’s Be Cops as it was happening.

    I know it’s fun to feel you’ve caught me in something. But context matters.

    I never understand why anyone thinks that I am trying to trick readers, who I know are not forgetful or stupid, by changing course. But again, I never wrote that McCarthy’s career was over, which many did. And hard truth be told, I am not sure she will be given another chance to solo so quickly because of the perceived success/failure of the film, which is not fair. But Kevin Costner has been fighting the perceived success/failure of Waterworld for decades now. (My personal pet peeve is Popeye, which was not a fiop at all.)

    For the record, I still would have written the first thing on Tammy… and it’s still true, even if the film turned out to be a success. I have tried to stick to writing about what has actually happened rather than some fantasy I have in my head. Everything I wrote in the paragraph you quote is true of the business. The reality of that one title did change. Happens every year. It was not an issue of sexism. It was an issue of math. The math changed. Why do you think I mention international all the time… because it changes the math.

  10. David Poland says:

    “jepressman”… supposition wrong. Do you actually recall what I did write about Cops?

    “if this universally-panned film really just cost $17 million to make, its crappy $15m likely 3-day will be okay, suggesting about $40m total domestic to go with TV sales overseas and a small profit on the film. This is the kind of situation where Fox’s fiscal discipline makes Shinola out of shit.”

    The next day I wrote, “Let’s Be Cops is a certifiable hit, whether critics like the notion or not. For perspective, the only Lorne Michaels-produced comedy that opened as well or better in 5 days was Mean Girls… and only by $600,000. To be fair, a lot of LM’s hits were many years ago. But this ain’t no MacGruber or Hot Rod. It is the 2nd cheapest studio release of the summer (Fault… also from Fox) and it will make reasonably good money, even with minimal international revenue. ”

    What a brute I am.

  11. David Poland says:

    Thanks for that, WG. (earnestly) I forgot that I was supposed to be running the film down because I am endlessly negative rather than being too positive. (snarkily)

  12. Bulldog68 says:

    “As you quote, I was not questioning her career… just whether she would get another shot at a solo film under her own conditions.”

    Well this seems to be questioning if not even moreso predicting her descent: “But this was her free kick, like it or not, and she blew it. Now it’s back to being the scene-stealing sidekick for 5 years or so until she gets another shot.” Unless I’m reading that statement wrong.

    ” And hard truth be told, I am not sure she will be given another chance to solo so quickly because of the perceived success/failure of the film, which is not fair”

    I don’t expect a crystal ball Dave, but a little research couldn’t hurt. In June, prior to the July 4th weekend they announced another project with her and directed by her husband named Michelle Darnell, based on a character she created at LA Groundlings Theatre.

    And IMDB is always one click away to see potential future projects. Now admittedly all of these were in the works prior to Tammy’s Opening, but I don’t see any of these projects being put in jeopardy now. Thankfully film execs were not you on the first week after Tammy, you know “hit and run”.

    I’ve read your eventual coming around to Tammy’s success, but it seems like it’s after much prodding, like the inevitable $300m gross of Guardians.

  13. David Poland says:

    Bulldog, everyone has projects in development. That doesn’t mean they will happen. Not even when they are “announced” as going EXCLUSIVELY wherever. You are paying attention, so you must know that. But maybe you are still waiting on any one of the dozens of sequels “greenlit” every year before they are shut down by reality.

    And you have no idea what those execs are thinking now or then. Either do I.

    Tammy was a case in which the media overreacted – both in attacking her and defending her – and I was looking for a middle. And my middle was still not restrained enough. On the other hand, I seem to recall people in here insisting that I was being a jerk for not KNOWING that Tammy was going to do $100m domestic. I don’t feel I am need of more self-flagellation over Tammy.

    As for Guardians, the $300m was not assured. It’s also not the OH MY GOD landmark that some have made it out to be. It is a success. It will be, still, the #4, #5, or #6 movie of the summer. That hasn’t changed.

    It’s a weird thing, because I write about what is happening and try to find context. I am not a cheerleader or a grim reaper. I am right often and wrong often, to both the positive and the negative. But for me, it is an ongoing conversation. I am not a mystic. I am not about guessing at a final number based on Friday east coast matinees. I have no stake in the wins and losses.

    When someone says, “This will happen” and I say, “I don’t think so,” they love to rub it in my face when it happens. I have yet to see a commenter in here (maybe it happened once) come in here to tell me how right I was when they were wrong… much less when everyone else was wrong. That doesn’t make me a saint or a genius. But I do live in the real world and I have been pretty consistent about how I approach this work over the last 15 years or so.

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” is not getting to $200m.

    Every week I say it….A cursory glance at the upcoming schedule would really help these analyses. Again, yes, the “Guardians” trajectory to $300m would have been obvious 3 weeks ago if you’d taken 5 seconds to check the September schedule. You were projecting weeks of big drops when nothing was entering the market except two niche films (yes, “No Good Deed” is niche) and a kiddie sequel WB didn’t want to market. Turtles is going to lose a ton of screens the next 2 weeks. It will clear $190 and top “22 Jump Street”…200 isn’t in sight.

    And again, no, it won’t necessarily be the “#4, 5, 6 movie of the summer.” Imagine if it matches CAP 2 in China? Then it’s #2 worldwide. And regardless, itll be far more profitable than any film this summer aside from TRANS4MERS given the hefty domestic gross. As you always say, slotting is irrelevant.

  15. Brandon says:

    “But Kevin Costner has been fighting the perceived success/failure of Waterworld for decades now.”

    I would argue, David, that Costner hasn’t been fighting the perception of Waterworld but rather the disastrous reality of The Postman a couple of years later, which grossed somewhere around $20 million against an $80 million budget. Following Waterworld in 1995, Costner rebounded fairly nicely the following summer with Tin Cup. But after Postman was such a crushing failure during the 1997 holiday season — and then Message in a Bottle and For Love of the Game disappointed in 1999 and 2000, respectively — Costner carried the stench of damaged goods, and not even his surprise sleeper success with Open Range in 2003 could solve that dilemma.

  16. David Poland says:

    I can tell you, quite specifically, that Kevin has a big chip on his shoulder about Waterworld and has had the argument a number of times in my presence… and I am on his side of the argument.

    As far as I know, he has never claimed that The Postman was in the black.

  17. jepressman says:

    Mr. Poland,your comments about Ms. McCarthy are viewed by you as,”middle ground?” Well maybe in your world you are dancing as fast as you can and being dismissive of certain performers is viewed as okay.

  18. David Poland says:

    jepressman… not dancing… you are welcome to disagree… I wrote what I wrote… no idea who else you think I am dismissive of, but based on your oversized anger on this, not sure I care to find out.

  19. Joe Leydon says:

    I predicted Cowboys & Aliens would be a big hit, and David said I was full of beans. David was right, I was wrong.

  20. Triple Option says:

    Based off of title, I would’ve thought Cowboys & Aliens would’ve been a big hit as well. One of the most wasted premises in cinema.

    David should prolly gets some props for being bearish on Netflix before everyone else started to jump ship.

    I saw The Drop. Still kinda trying to figure it out. Reminded me a bit of that film where Stallone plays a cop or sheriff in the NJ town. It was kinda interesting, gave the hint of some real insider pov, but that doesn’t really turn out to be the case. It doesn’t really say anything new or unique about the human condition, it’s like they started off one way and then sorta laid up. A bit more generic than I would’ve hoped. Good performances but I walk out of there thinking, “yeah, so??” It’s like why go through so much trouble for that?? I dunno. When are those fall surprises supposed to hit?

  21. Stella's Boy says:

    The Drop is definitely generic and doesn’t cover new ground, but I found Hardy so magnetic and compelling, I didn’t really notice or care. He’s great.

  22. Joe Leydon says:

    Actually, I enjoyed Cowboys & Aliens quite a bit, in no small measure for the very reason many other people seemed to dislike it: It was serious, not campy, in its approach to a genre mashup. Obviously, this is a minority view.

  23. cadavra says:

    C&A grossed over $100 million domestic, so it wasn’t really a flop. A flop would have been $30 million. Yes, it likely lost money because of the absurd budget, but again, it’s not like nobody went to see it.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
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Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
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The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
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Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
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Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4