20 Weeks To Oscar: Surveying The Board

Interstellar lands this week.

That leaves Unbroken, The Gambler, Selma, American Sniper, A Most Violent Year, Into The Woods, Big Eyes, and Exodus: Gods & Men

That’s a lot of movies, given an already pretty narrow field. More movies to come than movies that are seen a pretty sure Oscar nominees in Best Picture at this time. And any one of these new films could be a gamechanger. There are those “we” see as potential gamechangers and those “we” do not, but unseen movies often surprise, for better or for worse.

Of course, the primary focus right now is on Interstellar. Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay… and those 6 are just what what people are seriously considering as options from the “Top 8” categories.

Let’s make an example of this film because… why not?

Questions –

1. Is It A Best Picture Movie?

Well, that’s really two questions. First, can it get into the group of 9 (or so) Best Picture nominees? Second, can it win?

As noted in my previous 20 Weeks column Bring On The Narratives, a story that fits is part of answering Question 1a. The first question, at this point, everyone seems to be taking for granted. Nolan, 9 slots, probably in. It’s more Inception than Batman, right?

But on Part 2, how about “Interstellar vs Boyhood?” That would work. The massive movie about saving the entire world vs. the minimalist, intimate piece with the unique shooting schedule. “Interstellar vs Unbroken?” Not buying that so much. No real inherent conflict… just which one did you prefer?

2. How will Matthew McConaughey fit into the Best Actor picture?

Well. that’s a good question. He is serious longshot to win, having won last year. But being nominated again, not so long a shot.

Whom would he displace? Well, I don’t buy into the idea—at all—that there are 4 locked places in Best Actor. That does not mean that I think that 4 of the current 5 frontrunners won’t end up making it. That could well happen. But the only actor I consider cemented into a nomination is Michael Keaton. Great performance, great story, super-strong movie. In. After that, there is a lot of assumption and not a lot of solid evidence of lockdom. And I am a fan, personally, of the performances of Cumberbatch, Redmayne, Carrell, and Spall. But we really don’t know how these movies will settle in with Academy voters. They feel like good fits… as do the movies they are in. But we have a long way to go, even if we have a short time to get there.

3. What about the actresses?

Both Jessica Chastain and Anne Hathaway are vetted Oscar types. And the presumption is always that the female acting categories are easier to mount. Let’s work through it.

Which is lead? Which is supporting? Are both supporting?

Will Jessica commit to an awards push for Interstellar after committing so heavily to The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby? And then there is A Most Violent Year right around the corner (already being shown to some). And while the “She’ll go lead in one, supporting in the other” argument can be made, split attention had often lost actors both shots.

Will the backlash from the Oscar hosting gig still cling to Ms. Hathaway, perhaps unfairly, but in reality?

What actresses would they displace? Again, the assumption that we are done is a bit premature. These two performances, plus unseen work by Meryl Streep, Amy Adams, and the women of The Gambler, Into The Woods, and Selma are pending.

And what about the movie itself? Does it end up being seen as more commercial, more artistic, or something in the middle? How does it compare to, say, The Fault In Our Stars and Shailene Woodley, with voters?

And how does the category line up? Looks like a number of previous nominees and a few newcomers. Does this affect the vote or will there be enough pure love of Interstellar to power it past the issue?

4. Assuming this is a big worldwide box office hit, how does that fact affect the race?

Aside from this, Gone Girl and, potentially, Unbroken, there doesn’t look to be any other $100m domestic grossers in the field this year. There hasn’t been a year in the last five in which there was not at least one $145m+ domestic grosser. Gone Girl will probably get there. Unbroken seems less likely. But Interstellar seems a lock for that and a lot more.

In most years, there are multiple $100m grossers. On the other hand, if you go back 6 to 10 years, you will find multiple years with just one or even no $100m+ domestic grossers. Has the trend changed or has it been circumstantial?

The thing that Oscar keeps reminding us of is that it is not easily limited to a set of rules that guarantee anything. We are all forever balancing the way The Academy leans and the fact that we just don’t and just can’t know what is coming. Certainly not on October 22.

When I look at a movie like Exodus, I see a massive worldwide hit. It’s The Ten Commandments with 2014 technology. (Well, the commandments will be in the sequel, “Exodus: 40 Years Of Sand,” but you get the idea.) The Passion of The Christ did $611 million. Unless the 20 minutes or so I have seen—and which the studio is showing to faith groups and others all over the world right now—are very misleading, I see this as an $800 million worldwide smash with huge ancillary value.

Great actors in this film. Ridley Scott is a great director. And a massive worldwide hit that could eclipse Interstellar. Sometimes that changes the Oscar board. Sometimes it does not. In some ways, if the faith community likes the film too much, it will hurt awards chances. But who knows? Scoff all you like—and I know that some of you will—but way odder things have happened.

Is A Most Violent Year the movie that is magic for J.C. Chandor? For all the endless talk about his work in indie circles, he has had one nomination… for the Margin Call screenplay. But will this one turn the trick? Will Oscar Isaac, who was touted and didn’t land last year make up for it this year? Will Albert Brooks get the love he deserves? After all, it’s still a crime movie… not an Academy favorite… unless Nicholson is the criminal.

Can Into The Woods break the recent curse of Broadway musical adaptations? Is Selma more memorable than The Butler? Which kind of Eastwood movie is American Sniper… good, bad or get off my lawn?

By the time you are reading this, Interstellar may well be buzzing under embargo. It is a big puzzle piece. But it is not the only puzzle piece.

The change that all these unseen films may bring is no change at all. Or 40% of the top categories could flip in the next month.

Ain’t it cool?

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