22 Weeks To Oscar: Bring On The Narratives!

I really have been trying to stay out of this early scrum. If there is anything I can feel good about, it’s that I held out longer than Mark Harris.

Even so, no big bold predictions this week. It just struck me that even before we really know—and no one really knows jack-excrement this early, especially in this season—we do know some of the strategies waiting to be unfurled in the next two months.

If you wanna to win an Oscar, you gotta have a narrative.

There are many narratives that have worked. But each season, the elements involved change and that changes the value of any given narrative.

Narratives are debated before, during, and after the awards… sometimes for years after. I would still argue that without the Kathryn-vs.-Jim narrative, The Hurt Locker (my favorite film that year) would not have won… and might not even have been nominated. Others see it as the triumph of the best film… or the indie… or war guilt, etc, etc, etc.

So here are a handful of narratives that you will surely hear floating around in the months to come (if you haven’t heard them already):

It/They/He/She Is Due

Always a popular one. but a multi-edged sword. This year’s top contender for this narrative is Christopher Nolan. Thrice nominated (two for writing, one for producing a Best Picture nominee), he has never gotten the Best Director Oscar that so many feel he is due. Is Interstellar his fast ride to Gold City? Word (from interested sources) is that this film has the emotion that some of his other titles have not. And it’s a big picture-picture.

Of course, riding just behind Nolan on the same train are Richard Linklater & Boyhood, David Fincher & Gone Girl, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (new layout on his name in titles) & Birdman.

Like Nolan, they have all been nominated for multiple Oscars. And won none. They all have very distinct styles and skills. And we know there will be plenty of love from critics of all three of the movies already seen… and likely for the one unseen as well.

On the Actress front you have Julianne Moore (4 Oscar nods so far) and Amy Adams (5 Oscar nods). They make Jessica Chastain (two nods) and Keira Knightley (one nod) looks like the nouveau-nominated.

Amongst the Actors, it could easily be a field dominated by Oscar winners (Aflleck/McConaughey/Duvall/Phoenix) or by never-before-nominated veterans (Michael Keaton, Steve Carrell, J.K. Simmons, Timothy Spall, Eddie Redmayne, Benedict Cumberbatch amongst them).

They are all “due.”

Reese and Meryl better watch their already-gilded backs.

Celebrate The Singular Artistic Event

I must be thinking of Boyhood, right? Or is it Interstellar? Or Foxcatcher? Or Mr. Turner.

There really has never been anything like Boyhood. Except the 7 Up series by Michael Apted.

There won’t be anything like Interstellar. Except for 2001: A Space Odyssey and The Right Stuff (referenced by the writer/director himself).

There won’t be anything like Foxcatcher. Except for much of the Michael Haneke collection.

Nor nothing like Mr. Turner. Except Altman’s Vincent & Theo.

No disrespect intended to these four excellent movies. But I would argue that “singularity” is not a great argument. Not on its own. The Artist was singular, as a silent film in a noisy era. But it was also supported by The Big 3 Ws – (about) Hollywood, Heartwarming and Harvey.

Harvey Time

Few people have been as successful playing the awards game and at making people insanely paranoid about their behavior.

After a seven-year losing streak (and for Harvey, not winning is losing), The Weinstein Co won two in a row before not winning in the last two seasons. This year didn’t look so good just a few months ago, at Cannes, when the company’s reel for the rest of 2014 was presented. Suite Francaise and Macbeth are already pushed to 2015. Big Eyes has not gotten much love from the company (though Amy Adams will out). Grace of Monaco suicidally opened Cannes against Harvey’s will. The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby is currently being ignored in cinemas and the two-film version is soon to follow in those footsteps. St. Vincent is a Bill Murray event, but no Oscar movie. And there was this little movie that slid in between the others… The Imitation Game, which emerged as TWC’s lead pony at Toronto. Really, the only horse in Picture.

The odd thing is that there is a certain synergy with Focus’s The Theory of Everything, which is also a period piece, a true story, about a genius and a woman who loves him. So if paranoia is in order round Harvey, it should probably start at Focus, where they have to fight off his attempts to knock their movie out of the box to make his seem more singular.

Angelina vs Brad

This is my favorite new narrative in the making. Brad is in Fury, a David Ayer (also kinda due.. at least for a big hit and some Academy love) World War II movie set in and around a tank full of unorthodox heroes with The Kid providing the audience a point-of-view of the horror. Angie is the director of Unbroken, the story of The Kid, who takes all the war has to dish out and takes it like a tank.

Are these both Best Picture class movies? Here’s hopin’!

But what gets interesting is what happens if they are… and they both manage to get nominated, along with Brad for Actor and Angie for Director. it would suck the oxygen out of the season like no one’s business. In space, no one can see you failing to campaign. But if expectations are met and both films are of a quality level that legitimately makes them candidates to win, this becomes the story of the season, right past Boyhood’s 12-year production and Interstellar‘s big movie muscle.

The only “problem” is that they really aren’t completing directly. Brad’s company didn’t produce Fury and Angie isn’t acting (and if she was, she wouldn’t be directly competing there either).

Still… the media loves Bradgelina (or however the hell they spell it!)!!!

The big “if” is The Films. But we’ll soon figure out what is what.

The one thing we do know is that both Brad and Angie will be nominated for Golden Globes. Mortal locks.

Focus’ Last Stand

If you’re still pissed about Brokeback Mountain clap your hands!

Yes, Focus is being refocused and The Theory of Everything is considered one of the last breaths of The Old Focus as we knew it. True, it’s a Working Title film and that their relationship with Universal proper is not over… so there will be more such films in future. But don’t let that get in the way of a good narrative.

Do you want to shout, loud & proud, about the direction studio movies are going in 2014 while celebrating the great and glorious legacy of Schamus, Linde, and the whole gang? This is your chance.

Revenge Of The Elders

Another group that gets forgotten by the pundits this time of year is… well, The Academy. Dawn Hudson may have ushered in so cool kids into The Academy because it’s never a really a party until Rosario Dawson starts twerking up against an Octogenarian, but still, the overwhelming majority of members are not paying full admission at any movie anymore. And they like their movies the old fashioned way… on a screen… not too much blood…. not too many curse words or sex scenes… powerfully familiar.

I think Mr. Turner is the film that is a near-lock for a nomination… this year’s Philomena. Beautifully made, with real-life images that match the beauty of Turner’s painting. About the challenges of an aging artist of great renown. Brilliant, emotional performance by a familiar face in the lead.

This is also the domain of The Imitation Game, a movie that has been universally liked, but pushed away from by some critics as not edgy enough. Old people say, “Take your edgy and get off of my golden lawn.”

Unbroken is counting on people who remember World War II for themselves as well. So is Theory. And surprisingly, Foxcatcher, which was the clear critics’ choice coming out of Cannes, but is now being challenged by Birdman and Boyhood, will be looking for The Adult Vote of those for whom The Bird is too clev-ah and would rather watch Grandsonhood (coming to CBS next spring).

It’s The Best Picture

I know… almost unthinkable.

This is really a Phase 2 narrative.

But this time of year, it really is, “If Movie X turns out to be Forrest Gump 2014, it wins in a walkaway.”

This is the power of being unseen. Anything can happen. I remember when Million Dollar Baby was last in the pool and the minute the lights came up, I knew it was going to beat the very good, but flawed The Aviator. Of course, the thrill of the new can also lead to an overreach, such as when I saw Munich and pegged it as a likely winner. I still ended up being nearly alone predicting its eventual nomination back in the 5-nominee days. Or there is the case of Zero Dark Thirty, which had to face a barrage of misguided attacks, killing the film in its crib. A double-edged sward, the late game.

Will Unbroken be the last movie to be shown? Its looking like it. Could be American Sniper. Could be Into The Woods, though not terribly likely, in spite of being the last of the trio to be locked.

Right now, as you read everyone, you get the feeling that we have passed the “It’s THE Movie” option. But one never knows.

There will surely be another narrative or two that I haven’t considered today. Such is the nature of the season. (How’s that for a narrative?)

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