Gurus o Gold: Just After Selma & American Sniper
NOTE: The Gurus re-voted on Best Picture only after the screenings of Selma and American Sniper on Tuesday, 11/11/14. Five Gurus chose not to offer a re-vote; Hammond, Olsen, Pond, and Whipp.
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Gray | Hammond | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Boyhood |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 153 | ||
| 2 | 2 |
The Imitation Game |
1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 130 | ||
| 3 | 3 |
Birdman |
4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 124 | ||
| 4 | 4 |
The Theory of Everything |
6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 115 | ||
| 5 | 6 |
Foxcatcher |
5 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 70 | |||
| 6 |
Selma |
12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 69 | ||||
| 7 | 5 |
Gone Girl |
7 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 67 | ||||
| 8 | 7 |
Unbroken |
3 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 64 | |||||
| 10 | 8 |
Whiplash |
8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 49 | |||
| 9 | 9 |
Interstellar |
10 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 49 | ||||
| 10 |
The Grand Budapest Hotel |
7 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 40 | |||||
|
American Sniper |
11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 28 | ||||||||||
|
Mr. Turner |
10 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 28 | |||||||||||
|
Into The Woods |
9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Wild |
8 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
|
A Most Violent Year |
11 | 12 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
MADE CHANGES |
* | * | * | * | n/a | * | * | * | * | 9 | 0 | ||||||||
|
Nightcrawler |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
Fury |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Citizenfour |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Inherent Vice |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
November 14, 2014
Pre-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
Post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
After New York…
Just Before Selma & American Sniper
Adams, Karger, and Thompson are predicting that Selma will not get a BP nom. Pond has it at #9. Karger and Pond didn’t change their predictions after Selma’s premier. Adams did not submit pre-Selma premier. Thompson is the only one of the four that submitted new, changed predictions post-premier, but still left Selma outside her top nine.
We’ll see.
Looks like we are at point in race where everyone is comfortable with their 2 month old predicts…only for the shocking snubs to sneak up on them.
I wonder why nobody seems to be taking EXODUS: GODS AND KINGS or INTO THE WOODS seriously as Oscar contenders. They seem really strong on paper. Is there negative buzz coming from people who would know regarding secret test screenings, or suspicion caused by conspicuously light “for your consideration” ad buys for those films? I’m not in LA so to me it just seems odd. GLADIATOR and CHICAGO were Oscar juggernauts, but both of these, especially EXODUS, seem already written off.
For both EXODUS and INTO THE WOODS, the main issue is the director’s filmography since they won best picture, though buzz, particularly for EXODUS, isn’t that good. CHICAGO is really Marshall’s only good movie, and I personally don’t think the source material for INTO THE WOODS is very good, though I would say it has the better chance right now.
Thanks, Jesse. I think you’re right. Still, one should never count someone out who’s made as many good films as Ridley Scott, unless someone who’s actually seen a cut is whispering some hush-hush confidential information–the buzz you’re talking about–as in, “I’ll kill you if you repeat this, but I working on the sound design [or whatever] for EXODUS, and I gotta tell you it sucks.”
After all, how many years (and bad films) were between Polanski’s TESS and THE PIANIST? Woody Allen’s certainly had his long dry spells, too. Not that I think once a genius always a genius, but the guy who gave us ALIEN, BLADE RUNNER, THELMA & LOUISE, GLADIATOR, BLACK HAWK DOWN shouldn’t be counted out just yet.
As for Rob Marshall/INTO THE WOOD… I’ve never seen the play, but know it’s a LOT more highly regarded than NINE, maybe more even than CHICAGO, at least by Broadway fans. Isn’t it? Hummm…