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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Big Space Klady 6

Weekend Estimates 2014-11-09 at 9.06.41 AM

Based on Friday, nothing remotely surprising is going on with the estimates. Family movies expand significantly over Saturday and Sunday. Films for the over-12 set tend to pop a little on Saturday then drop a bit on Sunday making for some variation on 3x Friday. Box office 101. There are outliers, as there are for all things. But when the animated film is less than 10% behind the live-action non-family film on Friday, bet on the animated film to win that battle over the 3-day.

Big Hero 6 is a good opening. Interstellar is a good opening. They are both within the Top 26 of all-time amongst November openings. And neither is in the Top 15 or best in class for the first weekend of the month or anything else super-special. For Big Hero 6, this suggests a $200m+ domestic gross. For Interstellar, it suggests something like a $150m domestic gross.

Additionally, the domestic suggests somewhere between $300m and $400m international for Interstellar (handled by Warner Bros). And then there will be the question… if Interstellar does less than $500m or $600m worldwide (vs $826m for Inception), is it a winner or a loser for Christopher Nolan? And how does it affect the funding of the next movie? And the “it’s Chris Nolan’s world and we are all just his serfs” stories?

Big Hero 6, by the way, looks like $600m worldwide at minimum. The film is kissing cousins with anime’ and it could be unusually huge overseas… or not. Time will tell.

Those two films made up 68% of the total domestic box office this weekend. Only two films in 24 next highest grosses did over $3000 per screen – Birdman ($4850 per on 462) and Whiplash ($3660 on 88).

On the under 100 screen scene, The Theory of Everything found a solid start on 5 screens with $41k per. Citizenfour continues to draw nicely with $3580 per on 59 screens. And in exclusives (1 or 2 screens) Godard’s Goodbye To Language and Wiseman’s National Gallery continue to be strong.

Back to the wide releases, Gone Girl, St Vincent, and Fury were the strong holders. The rest were all over 40% (aside from low-count hits like Guardians and Turtles finding a new wave from second run).

Look for Big Hero 6 to “win” next weekend too. The real mystery will be the size of the audience that will show up for a Dumb & Dumber sequel.

This is, I have to say, not a very exciting Thanksgiving window. Congrats if you are a Hunger Games fan, but aside from that, there is a Penguins spin-off which will surely be popular and a Horrible Bosses sequel, but nothing really interesting to dig into. If you want film excitement over the holiday, it’s the arthouse fare, with Foxcatcher, Rosewater, The Homesman, The Imitation Game, and continued expansions of Birdman, Whiplash, and The Theory of Everything. Given that I have seen all of those movies more than once already, I am hungry for a Tim Burton or a Wachowski or something challenging on the long weekend after the turkey. Looks like I will be one of the many sneaking into guild screenings of Unbroken or checking out Into The Woods a second time or seeing Birdman or Foxcatcher a third time if I want something really exciting to chew on.

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24 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Big Space Klady 6”

  1. chris says:

    I’m curious: Because of the huge number of screens now, is running time not considered as much of a factor as it used to be? (In the case of “Interstellar,” which I’m iffy on btw, I’m wondering if it might hold a bit better than you’re suggesting because of the length/fewer shows factor.)

  2. Big G says:

    No surprise Interstellar “lost” the weekend.

  3. Glamourboy says:

    How do you sneak into a guild screening?

  4. MarkVH says:

    Really sorry John Wick hasn’t done better. It’s the movie Drive wanted to be and wasn’t. Glorious pulp.

  5. jesse says:

    As someone who liked both, and despite not being one of the filmmakers myself, I feel pretty confident saying Drive was not in the least trying to be a movie like John Wick.

  6. Stella's Boy says:

    But hasn’t John Wick been pretty successful? It’ll end up with about $40 million domestic, more than the far more hyped Drive (since it was mentioned) and more than anyone thought. How much should we realistically expect something like John Wick to make?

  7. Amblinman says:

    I thought Interstellar was awful, but at least it was long. Im a movie buff, so I’m all about suspension of disbelief but that ending…atrocious.

    The reality about Nolan is he’s a very good filmmaker but waaaaay overhyped.

  8. Chris S. says:

    The Friday BO post said that Fury is a “silent hit.” When you compare with Saving Private Ryan’s $216 million domestic, surely Fury is a disappointment, no?

  9. Gustavo says:

    You were right all along. The studio significantly overestimated INTERSTELLAR’s bow.

  10. Bulldog68 says:

    I think it’s a bit unfair to compare Fury to a Steven Spielberg directed war drama starring the then box office king Tom Hanks.

    But Fury still fails by comparison to Inglorious Basterds and even Benjamin Button, which I think are more appropriate fits. It’s not a failure box office wise by any means, but it needs international to make it look like a good investment.

    I think commentators have been kind.

  11. palmtree says:

    So Into the Woods makes the cut on the something excited to chew on list? I can’t wait to see it!

  12. jesse says:

    I didn’t care much for Fury as a film, but I don’t know, a David Ayer movie with Pitt and mostly non-stars in October isn’t exactly Tarantino’s first big movie in five years starring Pitt in the summer riding great reviews, or even a lavish-looking effects-packed Fincher movie starring Pitt for Christmas. Seems to me, Pitt deserves some credit for getting this pretty generic-looking movie to around $80 million domestic, the same way he helped get Moneyball to $75 million — or even World War Z to $200 million, considering the amount of zombie entertainment already available and the relative weakness of that movie. Audiences may not come out for his weirdest or artsiest stuff (pretty much anything in gritty crime mode), but for a guy who has mostly been making great choices for the past decade, Pitt has a great box office track record — much moreso than during the young/hot phase of his career.

    I know that doesn’t earn investors more of a profit for Fury, but generally with international factored in, seems like a $70 million Brad Pitt movie is a better investment than most other $70 million movies aimed at adult audiences.

  13. Bulldog68 says:

    I ride DP for when his Box Office prognostications are off so I’ll take a moment to give credit where credit is due and say he hit this one right on target.

    Posted in the Friday estimates re Interstellar: “Could be anywhere $46m – $49m. It would not be surprising at all for the estimate tomorrow to be over $49 million and the “actual” to be $48m or less.”

    Actuals came in at $47.5m.

  14. Jermsguy says:

    Was Merry Friggin Christmas supposed to open somewhere this weekend? Is it just going the VOD/DVD route?

  15. Stella's Boy says:

    It opened in New York and Los Angeles.

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    The GONE GIRL run really is amazing. It’s going to blow by AMERICAN HUSTLE’s total this weekend, and is going to top DJANGO eventually among “R-rated adult movies.” Hell, it will probably end up as the 2nd biggest October release ever.

  17. Smith says:

    Gone Girl is also about to become the ONLY $100m+ grosser this year-to-date to make 4x its opening weekend. Last year by this point The Butler, Now You See Me, The Heat, The Croods, and We’re the Millers had already done 4x opening – with Gravity and Captain Phillips on their way. That’s kind of a scary trendline.

  18. Chris S. says:

    “Bulldog68 says:
    November 10, 2014 at 4:36 pm
    I think it’s a bit unfair to compare Fury to a Steven Spielberg directed war drama starring the then box office king Tom Hanks.”

    Fair enough. I guess my point is that it is disappointing to see the pattern of diminishing returns for WWII epics – from $216 million for Private Ryan, to $198 million for Pearl Harbor, to $120 million for Inglorious Bastards, to $70 million for Fury.

  19. chris says:

    Well, for one thing (and not even taking quality or casting into account), a whole lot of the built-in audience has died over that 16-year time span.

  20. palmtree says:

    Chris S., I suppose that declining trend also depends on whether you include the first Captain America as a WWII movie.

  21. Chris S. says:

    I’m not sure Captain America quite qualifies – I don’t think too many people went to watch it in order to see history, and what history is included is mixed with a heavy dose of fiction.

    You might say that the WWII generation is fading away, but it does not seem necessary for the audience to have firsthand experience of a historical event to turn out for a film about it. Gladiator ($187 million) is proof of this, although a rarity.

    Hopefully we will see another $100 million+ domestic war film soon, but I’m not holding my breath.

  22. Hallick says:

    Tip of the unintentional irony hat to whoever decided to pair “Selma” with “American Sniper” at the AFI Fest last night.

  23. palmtree says:

    I checked with Mojo and forgot that Monuments Men did $78m. Fury has already crossed $71m, so it could end up passing it.

  24. cadavra says:

    MONUMENTS MEN suffered from iffy marketing. The first trailer marketed it as a romp (OCEAN’S 11 meets THE DIRTY DOZEN), then the second one made it look very serious, and finally the TV spots were all over the map. The confusion likely kept a lot of people away.

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