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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Hungry Hungry Klady

Weekend Estimates 2014-11-30 at 9.15.02 AM

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – $74m – 11/22/13
2. Frozen – $67m – 11/27/13
3. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone – $57m – 11/16/01
4. Toy Story 2 – $57m – 11/24/99
5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 – $57m – 11/21/14

So is last year the fluke or is this year’s Hunger Games a disappointment? $225 million domestic in 10 days makes the word “disappointment” seem pretty silly. Remember, Potter’s “Part 1” of the finale dropped behind the Potter before it before the final finale blew up bigger than any other episode in the series.

Also being chased by the ghost of last year is Big Hero 6, which is going to be the #2 grosser from the re-booted Disney Animation Studios, behind only Frozen. It will pass Wreck-It Ralph in about 10 more days and should eclipse Tangled before Christmas. And internationally, it’s just getting started. So yes… it will not be the next Frozen… but it’s doing really, really well.

The Penguins of Madagascar opening was okay, but nothing that is going to shake up the situation at DreamWorks Animation. Madagascar movies own 3 of the top 11 all-time box office slots for DWA. None of the three films have done less than $339m internationally. So it’s hard to imagine that this film will do any less than $400 million worldwide and it is completely possible that it does over $500 million. This weekend just doesn’t offer enough information to know.

Interstellar was clearly on people’s “let’s catch up with that” list for the weekend, getting a 3% bump over the 3-day even while dropping screens. It should be past $500m worldwide right now and it hasn’t opened in Japan. It will easily be the biggest percentage of international-over-domestic in Nolan’s career.

Horrible Bosses 2 opening numbers feel about right. The idea of the first film really caught people’s imagination and funny bone. But with due respect, Christoph Waltz and Chris Pine playing against type (if they are) isn’t quite the same. It’s not a terrible number. It’s not a great number. Whether it’s a good or bad number really depends on the budget of the film and its marketing.

Another big per-screen opening this weekend. This time it’s The Imitation Game. What does it really mean? This is the 8th $100k+ per screen launch in the last 3 award seasons and the 3rd this year, hammocked between Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

In the recent group over $100k, but below Imitation Game, Blue Jasmine and Inside Llewyn Davis. In the group above, American Hustle, Moonrise Kingdom, and The Master. So box office all over the place ($16m – $150m). Oscar slotting all over the place (a bunch of nominations, a few wins, and not Best Picture wins). In other words, if you think you know something because you’re reading this tea leaf, you are a fool.

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4 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Hungry Hungry Klady”

  1. Tom says:

    Obviously chart placement doesn’t matter but I still feel in my heart like The Penguins of Madagascar and Big Hero 6 coming in at 2 and 3 is the most interesting thing to happen involving cartoons in the month of November since The Land Before Time and Oliver & Company did it on this very same weekend 26 years ago.

  2. Joe Leydon says:

    Meanwhile The Equalizer creeps slowly… slowly… toward $100 million.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Remember the dustup when RISE OF THE GUARDIANS opened to $32 million in 5 days two years ago…proof of the toxic end to the relationship between Paramount and DWA? Now DWA has released 4 straight box office disappointments. Still, it will make money because of international.

    HORRIBLE BOSSES 2 won’t though. They’re claiming a $43 million budget. Even if that’s true, it’s going to have trouble making it to $150 million worldwide. Less than “We’re The Millers” made stateside.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    I’m curious as to why “Interstellar” has resonated so much in South Korea. It’s going to be the 2nd biggest live-action Hollywood hit ever there behind “Avatar,” and it’s a great sign for the movie’s performance in Japan (Gravity made almost exactly the same amount in both markets).

    $600 million is a virtual lock at this point, which I think was pretty much the original expectation, though the weight towards international has to be a bit disappointing (especially for Paramount). Still, is $170 million really a disappointment for an “original?”

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