Gurus o’ Gold: The Top 8 Categories Heading Into The Holiday Break

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Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Boyhood
1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 127
2 2 Birdman
3 2 3 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 4 13 111
3 3 The Imitation Game
2 4 1 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 13 100
4 5 Selma
4 1 5 3 5 3 7 2 3 3 4 3 2 13 98
5 4 The Theory of Everything
5 6 6 7 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 13 75
6 10 The Grand Budapest Hotel
6 5 4 4 6 7 5 9 7 7 6 7 7 13 63
t7 7 Whiplash
7 9 8 8 10 9 6 8 6 8 7 8 9 13 40
t7 9 Gone Girl
9 6 6 9 7 8 5 8 6 6 10 40
9 6 Unbroken
10 8 7 10 7 10 6 9 9 8 10 26
10 8 Foxcatcher
8 7 8 8 10 9 9 10 8 19
Nightcrawler
9 9 10 10 4 6
Interstellar
10 8 10 3 5
Into The Woods
10 10 10 3 3
Wild
0 0
A Most Violent Year
0 0
One Vote Wonders
American Sniper
9 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 2 Michael Keaton
Birdman
1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 13 74
2 1 Eddie Redmayne
The Theory of Everything
2 2 1 5 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 13 65
3 3 Benedict Cumberbatch
The Imitation Game
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 13 46
4 4 David Oyelowo
Selma
4 6 5 2 4 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 12 41
5 5 Steve Carell
Foxcatcher
6 4 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 6 5 11 21
Jake Gyllenhaal
Nightcrawler
5 5 4 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 6 12 19
Ralph Fiennes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
4 5 2 5
One Vote Wonders
Timothy Spall
Mr. Turner
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Julianne Moore
Still Alice
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 77
2 2 Reese Witherspoon
Wild
2 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 2 13 59
3 3 Felicity Jones
The Theory of Everything
4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 2 3 3 13 46
4 4 Rosamund Pike
Gone Girl
3 4 5 2 4 3 4 3 2 2 4 5 4 13 46
5 Jennifer Aniston
Cake
5 5 2 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 5 4 6 13 28
Marion Cotillard
One Day, Two Nights
6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7
t5 Amy Adams
Big Eyes
5 5 5 3 6
t5 Hilary Swank
The Homesman
6 6 6 6 4 4
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 J. K. Simmons
Whiplash
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 78
2 2 Edward Norton
Birdman
2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 64
3 t3 Ethan Hawke
Boyhood
3 4 4 2 4 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 13 47
4 t3 Mark Ruffalo
Foxcatcher
4 3 5 6 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 13 39
5 5 Robert Duvall
The Judge
6 5 3 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 13 26
Josh Brolin
Inherent Vice
5 6 6 4 6 5 6 6 8 12
Miyavi
Unbroken
5 6 6 3 4
Tom Wilkinson
Selma
5 6 2 3
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Patricia Arquette
Boyhood
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 78
2 4 Emma Stone
Birdman
4 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 4 2 4 2 3 13 49
3 2 Keira Knightley
The Imitation Game
5 2 2 5 5 2 3 3 5 3 3 4 2 13 47
4 5 Meryl Streep
Into The Woods
3 3 3 4 2 4 4 3 4 2 3 4 12 45
5 Jessica Chastain
A Most Violent Year
2 4 5 2 3 6 5 2 5 6 5 5 12 34
3 Laura Dern
Wild
6 6 6 5 4 6 6 5 6 6 10 14
Rene Russo
Nightcrawler
6 6 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Vanessa Redgrave
Foxcatcher
5 1 2
Tilda Swinton
Snowpiercer
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Richard Linklater
Boyhood
1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 76
2 2 Alejandro G. Inarritu
Birdman
2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 13 64
3 3 Ava Duvernay
Selma
3 2 3 3 4 3 6 3 3 2 5 2 3 13 49
4 Wes Anderson
The Grand Budapest Hotel
6 4 4 4 3 5 3 5 5 3 5 6 12 31
5 David Fincher
Gone Girl
5 6 5 4 4 6 4 6 6 4 10 20
4 Morten Tyldum
The Imitation Game
6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 9 19
5 Bennett Miller
Foxcatcher
4 5 6 3 6
Angelina Jolie
Unbroken
5 6 6 3 4
Damian Chazelle
Whiplash
4 6 2 4
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Boyhood
3 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 13 70
2 Birdman
1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 13 69
3 The Grand Budapest Hotel
2 3 2 3 3 3 5 3 1 3 3 3 12 50
4 Whiplash
4 6 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 11 31
t5 NIghtcrawler
4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 8 16
t5 Selma
5 4 3 6 4 5 6 7 16
Foxcatcher
6 5 6 4 6 6 6 5 8 12
A Most Violent Year
6 6 6 5 4 5
The LEGO Movie
4 6 2 4
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Gone Girl
1 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 4 1 2 13 66
2 The Imitation Game
5 1 1 2 1 2 6 1 2 2 1 2 1 13 64
3 The Theory of Everything
2 2 2 4 3 4 1 2 4 3 2 3 3 13 56
4 Wild
3 4 4 3 5 3 3 5 3 4 3 5 5 13 41
5 Inherent Vice
4 5 5 4 6 5 5 4 6 9 19
Unbroken
6 6 4 6 4 5 6 4 8 15
Amercan Sniper
5 5 6 6 4 6
Big Eyes
5 6 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Into The Woods
6 1 1
Obvious Child
6 1 1
Still Alice
6 1 1

Pre-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
Post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
After New York…
Just Before Selma & American Sniper
Just After Selma & American Sniper
Gurus o’ Gold: A Week From Thanksgiving, aka Screener Time
Thanksgiving Week
The Rise of Selma
Gurus o’ Gold(-n-Globes)

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9 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: The Top 8 Categories Heading Into The Holiday Break”

  1. Chris L. says:

    I REALLY hope Brolin can overtake Duvall. It’s been my practice to try to see all the major nominees, but reviews for The Judge were so putrid that I might not finish the job this time (even on VOD) if he’s in.

    Elsewhere, glad to see Budapest gaining. (If DGA or PGA finally warms up to Wes Anderson, look out.) Sadly it looks like Cotillard took a big hit with today’s short list snub of her film, though her gallant legion of comment board warriors no doubt still see a possibility. I’d love it if they were right, for the Dardennes’ sake as much as hers.

  2. Lola says:

    these are pretty spot on. I think Steve Carrell is looking like a miss for Foxcatcher since Jake Gyllenhaal is getting nominated for everything and Foxcatcher doesn’t look like it will get into Best Picture. only Ruffalo will make it.

    I’m totally here for a Jennifer Aniston nomination, it makes the race more interesting and exciting.

    I think Mr. Turner, Still Alice, Wild, and A Most Violent Year all have strong shots in screenplay but not Best Picture. I don’t see why Inherent Vice would get in? if Inherent Vice gets any nomination it should be Josh Brolin for Best Supporting Actor.

    Unbroken will still get in Best Picture like War Horse and Extremely Loud did.

    I don’t see how Fincher could get in Best Director. I think people vote for him because he’s a “name” and someone like Morton Tyldum isn’t, but the Academy isn’t going to like Gone Girl very much, something like The Imitation Game is more traditional and safe Oscar bait.

  3. Mark D says:

    I am really hoping that Jake Gyllenhaal overtake Steve Carell in the fifth spot. Jake’s performance was far more challenging and interesting. I’m a big Carell fan generally but I felt like his role in this was a gimmick. Stick on a big nose, talk funny and act creepy.

  4. Patryk says:

    Hope Gyllenhaal is in. His work is masterful, and he is gaining traction with critical citations and people are talking about his movie.

    Also hope Russo and Swinton surprise and get in instead of the overhyped Knightley and Streep perfs.

  5. Daniella Isaacs says:

    With preferential voting and a strong (if not dominant) contingent director’s branch voters appreciative of so called auteur filmmakers, I wouldn’t count Fincher out as getting a nomination for director. After all, in the past we’ve had David Lynch sneak in there when the associated film got virtually nothing else (MULHOLLAND DR, BLUE VELVET), same with Ridley Scott (BLACK HAWK DOWN), Martin Scorsese (LAS TEMPTATION), Robert Altman (THE PLAYER, SHORT CUTS), Fellini, Bergman. Right or wrong, people are starting to think about Fincher in the same way.

  6. Martin Pal says:

    It will surely be a shame if the “emperor’s new clothes” performance of Steve Carell gets in there over others like Gyllenhaal or Fiennes. I thought Bradley Cooper was revelatory in American Sniper.

  7. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I’m sensing NIGHTCRAWLER has some VERT committed fans, maybe even in the Academy. With preferential balloting, it seems a good bet for getting into Best Picture/Best Actor contention.

  8. Logan says:

    Keira Knightley’s performance has been way ovevalued. Streep and Chastain are near-locks. The 5th place is up for grabs: Dern, Knightley and Swinton. Russo’s a long shot.

  9. Sean Sweeney says:

    I’m shocked that Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King in Slama has not caught any heat for supporting. When I saw it, before the reviews came out, I assumed she was a shoo-in.