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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Bilbo Klady

Weekend Estimates 2014-12-21 at 9.15.51 AM

Five of the Top Nine December openings of all time are Hobbit or Rings movies. This Hobbit is #9. All-time. It’s not the top, but it isn’t anything to be unhappy about… especially given the choice to open close to Christmas itself than usual. There isn’t a whole lot more to say… certainly after saying as much about it as I did yesterday.

Not happy times at Fox or Sony, in context of their new releases, Night At The Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Annie. The extreme ranges for domestic grosses after openings like these in December go from $50 million to $170 million, so there is a wide berth for both. Next Saturday we’ll have a much clearer picture on both.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 will pass $300 million domestic and $650 million worldwide this next week. Like Hobbit (at least, so far), not best in its class, but pretty damned great.

Wild is looking like a legit hit for Fox Searchlight. It should be well over $15 million by the end of the holiday.

Big Hero 6 lost a bunch of kids’ eyeballs to the incoming Museum and Annie this weekend, but it will still pass $200 million and Tangled to become the #2 Walt Disney Animation Studios domestic grosser of its seven-year history. International has barely started, but even if the film matches others, it will have a hard time getting close to Tangled‘s $391m international draw.

Strong expansion for The Imitation Game, with a $26k per-screen on 34 screens. This number is much more significant than the $100k+ numbers you might see on a 1 or 2 screen release. The other big per-screens were Inherent Vice ($29k) and Mr. Turner ($21k), each on five screens.

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3 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Bilbo Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    The “Night At the Musem” and “Annie” numbers are like…you’re rubbing your eyes and not believing what you’re seeing.

    The Friday muultipliers are disastrous. They are playing more like Fanboy movies than kiddie movies. Even typing that sentence seems nuts.

  2. David Poland says:

    A little overly dramatic. Neither film played like an animated film. But the last December-released Night at the Museum didn’t do 3x opening day either. The Muppets did 3.5x opening day.

    Neither is a happy story, but…

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    So no runaway blockbuster that hit the stratosphere this year. A full $500m down from 2013 with 10 days to go. Quite a drop.

    Maybe 6 movies are $50m shy of their expected totals, Hunger Games, Spiderman, Dragon, Penguins, Transformers, Million Ways to Die in the West, and maybe a few more, so that’s about $300m right there. One could arguably add stuff like The Expendables and Horrible Bosses to this list, but there was a serious lack of midrange hits this year in the 100M-$175m range. 14 this year, as opposed to 21 from last year.

    Not to mention the fact that the top grosser this year @ $338m would have been #5 last year.

    No cause for alarm because of one down year, but it still gets the suits nervous I think. When you start to lose customers, it’s always harder to get them back.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4