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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Jurassic Klady 4

Friday Estimates 2015-06-13 at 7.41.26 AM

All one can really do is to pat Universal on the back and say, “Well done. Congratulations.”

It’s an odd feeling, really. Bigger than any of us or our very specific opinions. This is the third $145m+ opening in 11 weeks, tying the record for such openings in a year set in 2012, and that record took place over 18 weeks. And none of these three films have been anything close to groundbreaking. This doesn’t diminish the marketing achievement. But we’re not talking about Avatar or Titanic or even the first Jurassic Park. The only landmark that any of these films are leaving is financial.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

These huge numbers, which have all been reflected by huge overseas numbers as well, have changed what we talk about when we talk about box office.

But it’s more than the mega-movies. There have been 12 wide releases from the majors this summer and with them 3 mega-movies and only two outright flops. And even with one of those flops heading to a writedown of over $100 million, the studio that made it will be highly profitable this summer.

The new norm continues…

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40 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Jurassic Klady 4”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Why am I picturing Universal HQ as the orgy scene from Caligula?

  2. Geoff says:

    Well TWO of them were sequels to game-changing films if that helps – adjusted for inflation, Jurassic World is right in the wheelhouse of the first two movies. Still a HUGE opening and kind of ironic remembering some of the online buzz back in November when all these early trailers came out: the teaser for ‘Ultron got mad praise (and deservedly so….it’s really one of the best teasers ever made), the teaser for Star Wars got people crazy, but the teaser for Jurassic World which came out the same week got a lot of derision…..mainly because of the raptors and motorcycles shot, which I thought was SUPER-COOL. Jurassic World MIGHT end up making as much as both of those other films – gotta face it, THAT last shot of Pratt riding on the cycles with those raptors is one of the best money shots in recent years, I know I went ape-shit for it. 🙂

  3. Geoff says:

    Etguild no doubt, Universal is going to have a record-breaking year – I can’t be the only one thinking that Ted 2 is going to under-perform right? I don’t know….never quite saw the appeal of the first one either. But Minions is going to make mad bank.

  4. movieman says:

    ..unless “Minions” suffers the same fate as “Penguins of Madagascar.”

    Not as dramatic a fallout, of course: the “Despicable” movies have always been more popular than the “Madagascar” series.
    But I’d still be very surprised if “Minions” winds up as the #1 movie of the summer the way “Despicable Me 2” was a few years back.

  5. jspartisan says:

    What are the odds, that Jurrasic World has the biggest second weekend drop ever?

  6. Bob Burns says:

    great to see a return to form for Universal. It would be great if they became an awards player again, too.

  7. Well says:

    JURASSIC WORLD is just the worst and they don’t get a free pass just by throwing out some brief and sloppy meta references to corporate greed.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    “But I’d still be very surprised if “Minions” winds up as the #1 movie of the summer the way “Despicable Me 2″ was a few years back.”

    I would be too, but that’s mostly because MINIONS would have to be the biggest animated movie in history for that to happen. I think the question of whether it falls below $300 million depends on INSIDE OUT showing off its legs.

  9. movieman says:

    “Inside Out” could hurt, Et, but “Monsters University” had minimal impact on “DM2” (which, like “Minions,” opened three weeks after the Pixar movie) in 2013.

    The jury’s still out on animated sidekick sequels.
    But I have more confidence in “Minions” than I do in “Ted 2.”
    And yeah, I’m also expecting a giant tumble for “JW” next weekend.
    Pixar will probably be #1 for the frame.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    Good point on MU, though as a mediocre (by Pixar standards) sequel it was pretty front-loaded. If INSIDE OUT is as good as the reviews I’d expect its multiple to be more like UP.

    The budget on JURASSIC WORLD wasn’t really $150 million, right? I’d have pegged it at $180, minimum.

  11. movieman says:

    “Inside Out” is definitely in the top tier of Pixar movies, Et.
    (Even though I still prefer “Up” and “Wall-E.”)

  12. Pj says:

    LOL @ Marvel. All their records falling to a franchise that hasn’t had a movie in 14 years.

  13. Tuck Pendleton says:

    I have a five month old, so my “definitely seeing in a theater list” is pretty small this year. If there’s one I will go out and see this Summer it’s Inside Out. My wife and I can’t wait. Probably the only one we’ll both see. Still haven’t seen Mad Max Fury Road, and it’s killing me.

    Well, she’s going to see Magic Mike XXL too – but that’s a given.

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    For me it’s “Ratatouille” and “Wall-E” with the “Toy Story” trilogy and “Finding Nemo” right below, and then “UP,” “Brave” and “The Incredibles” right below that.

    @Pj, you think it’s going to top $207 million? It certainly could, but I think it looks out of reach and you’ll have to wait till December till Disney destroys their own record. Otherwise, not sure what you mean since the Boy Wizard continues to easily hold the single-day record.

    DC Comics, however, had their June record demolished.

  15. Amblinman says:

    Not really getting the hatred for JW from the movie nerd community. The last 10 minutes are beyond stupid but it’s a solid monster movie for the most part. It’s a fucking franchise reboot, so yeah it’s soulless, product placement, yada yada. Who gives a fuck.

  16. Amblinman says:

    PS: the OG Jurassic Park is one great sequence with a mediocre movie wrapped around it. People need to stop mistaking a childhood experience for a great movie.

  17. Matt P. says:

    One great sequence Are you talking the Brontosaurus scene, the T-Rex scene, the entire raptor chase from Muldoon on through the kitchen, or the final scene with the T-Rex clobbering the raptors and knocking over the bones? Because those are three to four great, all-time classic scenes. Just flat out iconic.

  18. PcChongor says:

    Neckbeard nostalgia might pump things up a little bit in terms of how it’s been remembered over the years, but JP The First has better visual storytelling in its opening five minutes than any product placement corporate monstrosity has had in its entirety this year.

    There’s a huge difference between being able to tell a good story, and trying to tell a good story how you think Spielberg would tell a good story.

  19. JS Partisan says:

    The internet: Where how one person remembers it, is HOW WE ALL REMEMBER IT! Which is such bullshit, because the first JP holds up. Watch Lost World, watch III, and watch fucking World. JP is like, leaps and fucking bounds, above those fucking movies. I am glad that Universal sold this movie, but how glad are they going to be next weekend? That’s the thing that’s most fascinating to me.

  20. Amblinman says:

    @Matt the first Trex attack is awesome. The rest? Eh.

  21. leahnz says:

    if you want to call the OG JP ‘mediocre’ that’s one’s prerogative – everyone’s experience of a movie is their own subjective thing – but to then extrapolate that the reason it’s considered a classic of its genre is because it’s an over-rated ‘childhood experience’ is rather naïve.

    there are game-changers in cinema, watershed moments in film-making that come along every so often, and in terms of genre cinema specifically, spielberg’s ‘Jurassic park’ is one of those moments (as was T2 a few years earlier for action cinema, with the revelation of the liquid-metal T-1000 signalling the advent proper of the compositing revolution, blending traditional in-camera special effects with computer generated digital visual effects in post production). the reason for JP’s enduring legacy is not because of children, but because ADULTS came out of the theatre feeling as they’d been on an actual convincing dinosaur adventure for the very first time, a feeling i think most humans dream of at some point when we learn that our planet used to be populated with magnificent monsters before our evolutionary arrival and we imagine what it would be like to be there with them in person, trying to survive.

    is JP dorky and clunky at times? for sure, but for many, many people it’s also harrowing and wondrous and thematically insightful, thoughtfully written and performed by a quality, eclectic cast and rather beautifully executed by a talented, imaginative, and ingenious crew. maybe you had to be there, but to dismiss the significance of JP at the time as a kid thing is simply ignorant.

    what will the legacy of this new insipid piece of trite cgi spectacle be? more of the same no doubt. how is this in any way not fucking scary. “oh it’s not that bad.” yeah, no it’s not, it’s just NOTHING, which is far worse. (and probably more colin trevarrow in the big leagues, yet another thoroughly middling director with all the unique flair and innate storytelling chops of a cop directing traffic. yay!)

  22. Jerryishere says:

    With 200 this weekend being a possibility, I feel confident Uni is not worried about ANYTHING.

    83 Friday 66m and Saturday for JW
    Vs
    87 Friday and 56m Saturday for avengers 2

    Is JW now poised to be summer champ?

    Given the seemingly positive WOM, looks quite possible.

    Yes, it’s only 2 days, but isn’t speculating fun?

    And weirdly, JW feels “fresh” given 22 years since a JP movie people liked compared to a superhero genre that, while still popular, is just relentless. And constant.

  23. JS Partisan says:

    The seeming positive WOM? Good luck with that one.

    Also, the Superhero gnere isn’t relentless or constant. It’s just there, and it makes the most money, than anything else going.

    What JW has going for it, is one thing, and one thing only: PEOPLE WANTED TO SEE A SUMMER MOVIE, AND ALL THEY GOT WAS SHIT FOR WEEKS! People, finally got a tentpole, and left the house in droves.

    Now, over the next month and a half, Summer is scheduled like it should be, but Universal owes every scheduler in town a lunch. It’s always nice when a confluence of events happens with a movie but my god, if another shitty Jurassic Park sequel can open to 200m, due to nostalgia. What the fuck is that fucking Star Wars movie going to open with?

  24. PTA Fluffer says:

    Shit?? They got MM:FR a month ago. That’s not ‘summer’ enough for you?

  25. amblinman says:

    “but because ADULTS came out of the theatre feeling as they’d been on an actual convincing dinosaur adventure for the very first time, a feeling i think most humans dream of at some point when we learn that our planet used to be populated with magnificent monsters before our evolutionary arrival and we imagine what it would be like to be there with them in person, trying to survive.”

    Yup, absolutely zero nostalgia beautification going on here. How ignorantly naive of me to suggest otherwise!

    You kinda gave the game away with the “thoughtfully written” bit. JP is considered lots of things but well written isn’t one of them. Arguing over the effects being a game changer is a straw man, wasn’t my point at all. My point is that it flat out isn’t a good *movie* T2 was a much much better film from top to bottom. Ain’t even close.

  26. amblinman says:

    Also, who cares if a movie adds up to nothing? Is that the only. Criteria a movie can be enjoyed? Whether it will be considered a classic 20 years from now? I cannot rail against a film like JW when I’ve been subjected to Transformers and Avengers as the only choice of summer popcorn movie the last few years. At least Trevarrow stages engaging action sequences. At least I found them engaging. The bird attack is flat out fantastic.

  27. JS Partisan says:

    The bird attack is a set piece they pre vized, that makes no sense in the rest of the story. Again, it’s all your personal taste and shit, but the first JP is summed up by that Brontosaurus scene. It’s the moment, that movies changed forever. If you think that’s nostalgia, then so be it. Out of all of those damn movies, that’s the one that is still enjoyable to watch.

    Fluffer, look at the chart. JW is going to make in a weekend, more than Mad Max has made in it’s entire domestic run. Seriously, the people were starved for choice, a lot of people it seems, and Universal gave them something this weekend starring an actor they really like, and CGI dinosaurs.

  28. doug r says:

    Jurassic Park was a great ride, but it still felt like JP:The Ride in a lot of spots. The T-Rex attack is well done, and you feel some peril for the kids, but the Ford Explorer dropping through the trees had a real Universal ride effects feel to it, you could sense the rhythm of the mechanics behind it. The real defining moment was actually earlier with Stan Winston’s triceratops, the breathing design was fantastic-it showed how modern animals and dinosaurs filled the same niches. I found Jurassic World seemed to take forever to get going and MERCEDES!!! everywhere. The G wagons and ambulance I forgive, the ML is a piece of crap and should never be seen again. The true call back here is the dying Apatosaurus, once again using Stan Winston’s old shop to make a fully functioning in camera beast, nicely done.

  29. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS, I think a lot of people are underestimating how young JW is skewing. People aren’t necessarily starved for choice…kiddies are. There’s a reason Dreamworks’ worst original since Jerry Seinfeld’s turn as a Libertarian Bee spent 10 weeks in the top 10. “Tomorrowland” just didn’t click, meaning there’s been a gaping void for youngsters, especially those who aren’t into spandex.

    Nostalgia-driven Buzzfeeder parents are carting their broods off to see this thing by the boatload. (Another headache for WB schedulers who not only stuck their doggie-hero flick in between INSIDE OUT and MINIONS but now have to deal with a four-quadrant smash as well).

  30. Amblinman says:

    “but the first JP is summed up by that Brontosaurus scene. It’s the moment, that movies changed forever”

    Not arguing that the effects used in the film were groundbreaking. Just that they were in service to a mostly mediocre film. Initial Trex attack is vintage Spielberg. Most of the rest was a preview of post-Schindler’s Popcorn Spielberg, which is to say meh.

  31. EtGuild2 says:

    “Most of the rest was a preview of post-Schindler’s Popcorn Spielberg, which is to say meh.”

    Huh? The four “popcorn” movies Spielberg did following JP were LOST WORLD, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, AI and MINORITY REPORT (if you think Ryan is too prestige to be popcorn I dont know what to tell you, but then fine, use Catch Me If You Can). The four prior to JP were HOOK, INDIANA JONES 3, EMPIRE OF THE SUN and TEMPLE OF DOOM.

    I’d take the four post-JP movies in a heartbeat. MINORITY REPORT ends up looking like the most visionary Sci-Fi movie of the century (though HER may one day top it) and AI is one of the most ridiculously maligned movies in cinema history. He didn’t start fading till after those. If anything, JP was a return to form for a director who was starting to look very ordinary.

  32. David Poland says:

    I think the youth factor that ET brings up is a huge factor, which played against Max. I wouldn’t think about taking my 5 year old to see this one… maybe 10 or so. But you can be sure there have been a lot of kids seeing the film this weekend.

  33. amblinman says:

    “Huh? The four “popcorn” movies Spielberg did following JP were LOST WORLD, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, AI and MINORITY REPORT (if you think Ryan is too prestige to be popcorn I dont know what to tell you, but then fine, use Catch Me If You Can). The four prior to JP were HOOK, INDIANA JONES 3, EMPIRE OF THE SUN and TEMPLE OF DOOM.

    I’d take the four post-JP movies in a heartbeat.”

    Yeah, we’re wading deep into personal waters now. Lost World is unadulterated garbage, complete cruise control. In an interview once Spielberg basically admitted he made it purely out of feeling like he owed it to the studio. Minority Report suffers from the same problems as most Spielberg popcorn stuff after Schindler’s, bang up set up, one thrilling sequence, and then it’s all downhill. War Of The Worlds lines up almost the same, crackerjack opening, then fart noises until the end when it just kind of stops.

    The man just doesn’t like making giant thrill rides anymore and hasn’t in a long time. It’s funny that you bring up Catch because I love it and wish he would do more stuff like that when he decides to go for a crowd pleaser.

  34. EtGuild2 says:

    Totally agree on WAR OF THE WORLDS, that’s where I’d argue he really goes off the rails (that or THE TERMINAL)…but that was 12 years after JP. I think you’re a minority of one on MINORITY REPORT.

    I’m not fan of LOST WORLD, but EMPIRE on re-viewing today is absolutely wretched. HOOK is fun…for a Chris Columbus movie, and the less said about LAST CRUSADE the better. Regardless, it’s tough to argue JP was Spielberg showing cracks in the action facade, given it had been 9 years since he’d made a great “popcorn” movie, and he’d make abother 3-4 over the course of the next 9.

  35. doug r says:

    Don’t forget, Speilberg was starting work on Schindler’s List when JP was editing, so a lot got done by George Lucas-early practice for Phantom Menace, I guess.

  36. leahnz says:

    well it’s fun to change the goalpoasts when debating amblinman, but you said this:
    “PS: the OG Jurassic Park is one great sequence with a mediocre movie wrapped around it. People need to stop mistaking a childhood experience for a great movie.”

    “mistaking a childhood experience” and looking back at something from your adulthood fondly are not at all the same, so either say what you mean or don’t change what you mean half-way through.

    as for ‘giving myself away’ with J park being well-written, it most certainly is well written (especially compared to the mainstream shit sandwiches being sold today, JW is appallingly written). Jurassic park is fairly keenly adapted from Crichton’s own novel by crichton and koepp, has a clean narrative structure that begins with dinosaurs IN THE GROUND (very important) and weaves the plot/mostly well-drawn characters deftly together to drive the conflict/narrative and convey the underlying themes of the film; for the most part the story MAKES SENSE, not a lot of extraneous nonsensical fluff, and concludes with the quiet scene in the air that tells us what happened to the dinosaurs, how we see and live with them everyday.

    “Also, who cares if a movie adds up to nothing? Is that the only. Criteria a movie can be enjoyed? Whether it will be considered a classic 20 years from now? I cannot rail against a film like JW when I’ve been subjected to Transformers and Avengers as the only choice of summer popcorn movie the last few years. At least Trevarrow stages engaging action sequences. At least I found them engaging. The bird attack is flat out fantastic.”

    ????? hahaha, i take it you might actually be serious here so clearly there’s nothing left to say except nonsensical mediocrity is the winner. congrats.

  37. JS Partisan says:

    It’s a winner right now, it restarted a franchise, but next week will tell the tale. If the “girls” movie beats the “boys” movie, then hopefully everything will right itself.

  38. Amblinman says:

    “well it’s fun to change the goalpoasts when debating amblinman”

    Umm…I didnt. My goalposts have been in the same position all along: Jurassic Park used groundbreaking special effects in service to a mostly mediocre movie.

    Also:

    “mistaking a childhood experience” and looking back at something from your adulthood fondly are not at all the same”

    Yeah, that’s called “nostalgia”…and, well, uh huh.

    Also, anyone invoking the name “David Koepp” in context of creating something well written…hahaha, i take it you might actually be serious here so clearly there’s nothing left to say except nonsensical mediocrity is the winner. congrats.

    Insisting JP was well written because you get to compare it to something like JW which is written like shit means I get to insist JP comes across like The Room when compared to Jaws. Oooo look at that, I just struck a blow for commercial artistry because I compared one thing to another thing preferring the other thing.

  39. brack says:

    A CinemaScore of an “A” for JW is a good sign that the film will do well, maybe in the $500m club. People who have seen it that I know have liked it, whatever that amounts to.

  40. leahnz says:

    actually, according to the use of the English language, “mistaking a childhood experience” dictates that a) one is a child when having the experience, and 2) implies that as a child one is less able to comprehend something the way an adult is. this is significantly different from ‘nostalgia’, the act of remembering the past with longing or sentimentality that has nothing inherently to do with childhood. (and in this instance both assertions/assumptions happen to be nonsense, used to bolster an argument that the movie Jurassic park is, in fact, mediocre and that the reason people think otherwise is because they are looking at it through either the prism of the limitations of a child’s too-easily-impressed eyes, or rose-coloured glasses that are clouding the judgement of adults — neither of which is true in my case and probably many, many others who saw Jurassic Park on release as an adult and have seen it many times since. if you think a movie is mediocre, fine, but don’t tell others – who were actually there at the time no less – that they couldn’t possibly be thinking with a clear head if they don’t agree with you)

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