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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Kladyasaurus Rex

Weekend Estimates 2015-06-28 at 9.03.42 AM

The success of Jurassic World stands out from all the other New Billionaire movies on the block. It’s trajectory is much more like that of Marvel’s The Avengers, all the way back in 2012 than this year’s two other billion dollar movies or Frozen. Everyone is looking for an explanation or meaning. But it seems pretty basic… people were ready for another trip to Jurassic Park and when they went, they came out spreading good word of mouth. Whatever the reason “they” didn’t connect in huge numbers to Mad Max: Fury Road or were let down a bit by Avengers: Age of Ultron, they are connecting to J-World in a way that feels more like the blockbusters of old.

The Billion Dollar Blockbuster era really started in 2010, when Disney had two, the first in the studio’s history… for one very good movie (Toy Story 3) and for one not so great movie (Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland). There had never been a year with two billion dollar grosses, much less two from one studio. Since then, there has been 1 year with 3 billion dollar-plus worldwide grossers, 1 year with 2, 1 year with 1, and now, having already hit that number this year, 2 years with 3.

Of course, a big part of the New Billionaires is investment. Of all 15 in the last 5 years, only Frozen claims a production budget under $200 million. Add in worldwide marketing and the investment starts at $400 million for each of these films. Anyway… more musing on this later…

Inside Out continues to be hot. It will take an estimates 42% hit in this, its second weekend. By the end of its third weekend, it should be at or near dead center of the Total Domestic Gross pack at Pixar with a lot of gas left in the engine. $300 million domestic is the next target. Then Finding Nemo‘s $340 original domestic cume.

Ted 2 is not a thrilling number, but not a disaster either. My argument remains… no solid premise to sell this time left only hard core MacFarlane fans and holdovers from the original. Still, $80m – $95m domestic and some significant number internationally will still make Ted 2 profitable. ha

Max is the pleasant box office surprise of the weekend, though hardly a phenom. He’s a family dog… he’s a Marine… he’s a box office machine. $12.2 million for a movie that the mainstream didn’t see coming is a nice number.

Dope is now the #1 summer indie. It’s #2 if you include the Dependents, behind Focus’s Insidious Chapter 3 and ahead of Searchlight’s Far from the Madding Crowd.

Also having a nice run is Roadside’s release of Love and Mercy. Searchlight still can’t seem to find the handle on Me and Earl and The Dying Girl, though their expansion this weekend was okay.

Outside of the top 3 grossers, for whom screen counts are an iffy proposition, there was only one $10,000+ 3-day this weekend… for the reissue of The Third Man. Next best was Batkid Begins with just $5530 per on 4.

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44 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Kladyasaurus Rex”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Curious to see whether/when Universal announces JW as their most protibale movie at the box office, since the studio practically fell down proclaiming that of DESPICABLE ME 2 back in 2013 (FURIOUS 7 probably edges it out but only if you count the Walker insurance-settlement, which gets into unseemly territory).

    At 1.24 billion, JW is clearly a week or two away, as $1.4 billion would be enough given the heavy reliance on American grosses unless the obviously low-balled price tag was REALLY low-balled, and it cost like $225 million.

  2. matt says:

    Out of curiosity, was there any particular occasion for the reissue of The Third Man?

  3. mattn says:

    New 4K restoration for Blu-ray release.

  4. JS Partisan says:

    Ethan, how is Furious 7 not their most profitable movie ever (BOM is reporting it at 1.08bn)? That’s the one they should brag about, and that’s the one that’s special. Grossing a lot in America is one thing, but JW isn’t coming close to racking up 1.5bn total like Furious 7. Which leads us to the question: if you are a studio, which one do you want? Do you want an domestic champion with sort of half-assed international, or do you want somewhat successful domestic with UNBELIEVABLE international? I’d always go for the latter.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    BOM is slow to update their international charts. It’s at $1.24 billion thanks to a $738 million international gross, $202 million from China.

    If you knock out China for both movies, F7 is only ahead of JW by about $80 million worldwide. The problem, as stated on this blog and elsewhere, is that Chinese grosses are worth about 40% as much as grosses here in America. The $150 million lead JW has on F7 domestically equates to practically the entire massive $392 million F7 made in China for Universal.

    At this point, if you think the “real” JURASSIC WORLD budget was $190 million, it’s already matched the pre-Walker insurance F7 in terms of profitability. If you want to add the insurance coverage Universal got, it’ll probably pass it by this time next week.

    Also: we have no idea how JW will do in Japan…but the biggest markets for JURASSIC PARK, LOST WORLD, and JPIII were Japan. $100 million there is a good bet…which means it would pass ULTRON internationally for 5th place, and AVENGERS for 3rd worldwide.

  6. Tracker Backer says:

    “Inside Out continues to be hot. It will take an estimates 55% hit in this, its second weekend.”

    Nope. 42%, as your chart shows.

  7. Tracker Backer says:

    Also, that expansion for Me and Earl is pretty terrible, actually. Searchlight is taking it to 700-800 screens this upcoming week, but I don’t see how it stands a chance at this point. Reviews have been pretty divisive. There are definitely some champions for it out there, but others are (loudly) proclaiming it to be an example of the worst of Sundance. I loved it, but can certainly see how it’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

  8. Daniel says:

    And Cinderella finally crosses the $200m mark…which is, actually, astounding given how well-trod that story is. I wonder how all the other live-action Disney adaptations are going to do. Between the comic books, the Star Wars, the Harry Potters, the YA novels-turned-movie-triolgies-split-into-4-parts and these Disney remakes, we really are a culture of adults who refuse to grow up. No wonder I barely go to the movies anymore from about June through September. I’d like to see grown-up characters who actually have real dialogue dealing with complex situations. And, yes, I know, we’re in a golden age of TV where they can tell those kinds of stories better, but you know, sometimes I long for a good standalone two hour story for adults.

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    “Since then, there hasn’t been a year without 3 billion dollar-plus worldwide grossers and we have already hit that number this year with who-knows-what to come.”

    Try last year Dave, only Transformers hit the mark.

    And JS, your continued underestimating of JW is amazing. First it won’t have legs because of Inside Out. Then it won’t have legs because of Ted. Also it will struggle to get to $500m. Now it won’t do much more internationally. How many times on a few short weeks will you continue to be wrong. Look at the trajectory and make an informed guess based on that. Not because you hate it because it made Age of Ultton it’s bitch.

  10. David Poland says:

    Sorry Tracker… too many charts open… fixed now…

  11. David Poland says:

    Bulldog… man… what was I doing this morning… again, apologies… sloppy Excel work on my part… fixed.

  12. Matt P. says:

    So, we’re agreed now people haven’t caught on to Jurassic World and that we are in full-blown cultural phenom territory, right?

    At some point this week, Dark Knight is going down and the original Avengers could go down by the middle of next week.

    Neither Terminator nor Magic Mike are tracking above $35 million for next weekend. Legit question, can JW still take the Fourth weekend?

  13. palmtree says:

    JW is going to outgross F7 worldwide too. It’s a matter of time. It’s already earned $500m domestic and $1b worldwide without breaking a sweat. It’s safe to say the normal rules are not applying to JW.

  14. Bulldog68 says:

    Re Matt P: JW just stomped over whatever tracking had it at. It just came out of nowhere like a camouflaged dinosaur.

    The reviews thus far for Terminator are not kind but do you think in some weird way Terminator may benefit from the whole nostalgia thing? Mad Max did solid if not blockbuster numbers, and is only a disappointment in light of its budget, but Mad Max was never a blockbuster property to begin with. Now we have Jurassic after two maybe three unpopular sequels, reminding people of the well loved original. Three weeks later it’s Terminator attempting to do the same thing. If Transformer sequels can be so disliked and still make so much coin, I don’t see why a Terminator movie can’t also benefit.

    I still think it opens at #1. It opens on Wednesday so the weekend will be muted but we’ll see. I think it will open above tracking too.

    And by the way, Arnie posted a rainbow tinted Terminator Facebook profile pic. The movie may benefit from an additional gay demographic because of that post that also smacked down a guy in the process. Lol.

    Posting from phone so forgive typos.

  15. Jerryishere says:

    JW is going to be #2 or #3 domestic a all time.
    Probably similar worldwide.
    Not sure how anyone can downplay it now.
    I’m fairly certain no one at universal is wishing it performed any differently than it is.

  16. JS Partisan says:

    Bulldog, $8,531.7Bn. Just taste it. Taste it, understand it’s going to hit 10bn in 2016, but it once again has NOTHING TO DO WITH AVENGERS! It has EVERYTHING… MY GOD… EVERYTHING to do with it being SHITE!

    That’s right. I am breaking out the “e ” again, because it’s shite. I am not fan of fucking Avatar, but Cameron was at least trying something. He at least knows how to put on a fucking spectacle. Marvel, are at least doing something, that NO ONE ELSE HAS EVER COME CLOSE TO MAKING AS SUCCESSFUL! This leaves us with Stupid Dinosaur Movie. What the fuck is this shit?

    Seriously, you guys are going to get all entrenched like you do on these things, because that’s your default position. Turn off the default, and work with me here. What the fuck is going on with this movie? I get that they are treating it like family movie, which is fucking disgusting. Any movie with such a gruesome death in it, should not be a fucking FAMILY MOVIE! Sure. My parents thought Risky Business was a family movie, but that’s besides the point.

    Seriously, again, what the fuck is this shit? It has left me wondering, what the fuck is going to happen with ID4-2? Is notalgia going to propel that shitty movie, and we all know it’s going to be shitty. Is that shitty fucking movie going to beat CIvil War and other large films in 2016?

    I can go on and on, but you must forgive me for being absolutely fucking shocked, that STUPID DINOSAUR MOVIE is registering like AMERICAN SNIPER! There you go. If you loved American Sniper, then JURASSIC WORLD IS FOR YOU! That’s the best I can come up with, because this shit is fucking baffling. Avatar, making that much, is still astounding, but Cameron is at least Cameron. This shit right here, is astounding for being out of the god damn blue, being terrible, and being treated like a fucking family film WHEN THERE’S A FUCKING BETTER FAMILY FILM PLAYING ONE THEATRE OVER!

    Here’s to fucking James Bond, Mockingjay, or Star Wars making similarily ridiculous opening weekends, because 2015 needs to be as stupid as possible, and Minions is probably going to keep the stupid going.

    Oh yeah. The whenever someone on the internet complains about fucking CGI again. I am just going to point to this and fucking Avatar, then scream, “J’ACCUSE!” JJ must feel like an asshole, for believing people really wanted more practical effects in 2015!

  17. Matt P. says:

    If Gremlins and its gruesome deaths and gore was a family hit in 1984 (and it definitely was a family hit) than Jurassic World is a family hit in 2015.

    The common thread: Spielberg as a producer. No one in the history of film is better at getting movies to skirt ratings and selling families on movies they really shouldn’t have been sold on. Goodies was the same way. Kids cussing up a storm, guys getting shot, killed and stuffed in freezers so their bodies could fall on 12 year old boys and terrify them.

    JP was the same way in 93, selling happy meals and glasses.

    No one moves the radar for what’s appropriate for children like Spielberg. And families, for the most part, have happily gone along.

  18. JS Partisan says:

    The Gremlins getting killed in gruesome ways is one thing, but where are the similarly gruesome death like the one in JW? The old lady getting thrown through the window? That’s cartoonish. The shit in JW is ghoulish, but you probably fucking nailed it.

  19. brack says:

    JW is PG-13, just like all the previous movies. You can get away with a lot of violence if it isn’t too gory, and JW certainly wasn’t. How were any of the deaths any worse than the lawyer’s death from the first JP?

    Inside Out is doing great business. Why anyone is hung up on it not being number one or whatever nonsense needs to get a grip. Yeah JS, talking about you.

  20. leahnz says:

    terminator: genitals sphincter factor 9.5
    (once upon a time we get linda hamilton & michael biehn, now it’s down to…some kid who looks 15 and vaguely like linda Hamilton and jai ‘dish rags have out-charisma-ed me’ courtney, yikes + back foul generic beast ) oh and old-as arnie, how does that work

  21. EtGuild2 says:

    GREMLINS was actually PG, and along with TEMPLE of DOOM is one of the movies that famously brought about PG-13. .

    @leahnz, it’s the first big movie I’ve seen in awhile where I wanted to pretend it didn’t exist while I was watching it.

  22. Amblinman says:

    Yes, Marvel has done something amazing: it took the franchising of film to an expert level in which an assembly line of generic movies make money. Yay. And taking shots at CGI now? Seriously? The Hulk in AOU looked like a fat confused Smurf.

    Generally speaking how much money any of this makes isn’t interesting to me. But watching folks like JS lose their shit because their preferred brand of crappy mediocrity got trounced by someone else’s preferred brand of mediocrity is kinda wonderful.

  23. Bulldog68 says:

    JS: “Bulldog, $8,531.7Bn. Just taste it. Taste it, understand it’s going to hit 10bn in 2016”

    If you’re suggesting that that is the number that the next Avengers movie is going to make then all I can say is that either you’re absolutely delusional, or point me in the direction to where I can get tickets to your next comedy stand up tour.

    Really sorry to hear these horrible reviews for Terminator. Was hoping it was least half way decent. If it’s so bad I wonder how they roped in James Cameron to endorse it? He certainly didn’t need to do it.

  24. Mostly Lurking says:

    I thought the 10bn reference was to the Marvel Universe movies as a whole.

  25. Bulldog68 says:

    Now that makes more sense Mostly Lurking. With JS one never knows.

  26. Christian says:

    Studios love it that you guys care more about their profits than good films.

  27. Bulldog68 says:

    Just because you’re a box office fan doesn’t mean you don’t care about good films. I’d give anything to have Mad Max and Jurassic World switch box office places. Or how about The Rundown switching places with Daredevil back in 2003. But I know what reality is. And much like the success of Batman Begins, and yes that was a good film, allowed Nolan to more space to do stuff like Inception and Interstellar, maybe JW will give it’s Director more creative freedom as well.

    God knows the Wachowskis are still being given some very expensive room since The Matrix.

    I liked that Michael Bay attempted something a bit different with Pain & Gain, even though I didn’t like the outcome.

    JW was a good thrill, and not much else. But it connected with the audience in a big way, and that’s not fabricated, or subjective. Profits are a good thing.

  28. JS Partisan says:

    Man, I am not losing my shit. I am thoroughly confused, but once again THANKS FOR YOUR ENTRENCHED POSITIONED! Woohoo! You hate the Marvel films. WHOOPIDY FUCK! JW had horrible trailers, wasn’t going to make shit. and now it’s probably going to be the #3 movie of all time? REALLY? If you can step outside of your fucking self for a moment, and discuss what the fuck is going on with this shit, that would be swell.

    Bulldog, that had everything to do with Marvel’s total franchise number. The fact that you didn’t get that right away. Definitely demonstrates, that you and I are never on the same page, except with your Mad Max comment. The world would be a better place, if Mad Max had that JW cash.

    Aside from that, what audience connected with JW? Who the fuck is over the moon with this shit? Is it millenials? Women? Who the fuck sees this terrible piece of shit, and go, “DAMN! LET’S SEE THAT OVER AND OVER AGAIN!” It’s really fucking perplexing, but it has that wonderful stink of ID4! You’re old enough to remember how that movie came out of the blue, and that’s the only thing that seems plausible in this case, and Christian not being fascinated by this is his typical bullshit.

    No shit, Christian! I had no idea, that I had ZERO CONTROL over the fucking box office, but this shit is fascinating. James Cameron is a master of spectacle, so it sort of makes sense his Avatar movie made what it did. I will also put this shit right here: those Avatar sequels are going to be, at the very least, billion dollar movies. That’s Cameron though. Are the transformer fans, the people who see those shit films no matter what, making this happen? Again, it’s a fucking fascinating box office story, and Brack? Guess what? Second place is the first loser, but here’s hoping Pixar/Disney aren’t viewing it that way. If they are? If they are, so long non-Frozen female protagonist movies!

  29. Amblinman says:

    “I am thoroughly confused, but once again THANKS FOR YOUR ENTRENCHED POSITIONED! Woohoo! You hate the Marvel films. WHOOPIDY FUCK! JW had horrible trailers, wasn’t going to make shit. and now it’s probably going to be the #3 movie of all time? REALLY? If you can step outside of your fucking self for a moment, and discuss what the fuck is going on with this shit, that would be swell.”

    You are evidently confused. Your cognitive dissonance regarding other folks’ “entrenched positions” vs your own is pretty loud. *You* have decided that JW had horrible trailers and wasn’t going to make shit, I don’t know why I need to step outside myself to…be you? You took a position, can’t step outside yourself, and keep railing against unseen forces for having the audacity to like a movie.

    I don’t hate Marvel films. I said they were mediocre. They’re not daring or interesting enough to generate that much passion. I’m okay with lots of people going to see them, however. I’m of course rooting for a change because I’m simply tired of the formula and the genre.
    PS: They’re gonna fuck up Thanos. 😉

  30. Greg says:

    JS, please take this in the spirit in which its intended… I think there is really something wrong with you. Its a message board. Calm the fuck down. Seriously. Its not interesting, its just sad.

  31. Bulldog68 says:

    “Definitely demonstrates, that you and I are never on the same page.”

    And I thank you JS.

  32. Bulldog68 says:

    And it is hypocritical to quote the Marvel numbers as an example of audience appreciation and love while at the same time dismissing the JW numbers as some sort of aberration.

    “JW had horrible trailers…”
    That’s an opinion and nothing more. The trailers brought in the audience for that first weekend. So it worked.

    “wasn’t going to make shit.”
    I think a good 95% of forecasters had pegged JW as #2 or #3 for the summer, so basically everyone thought it would make a good amount of shit……but you.

  33. palmtree says:

    Why can’t JS just be happy that JW is a huge hit for Chris Pratt, Marvel’s latest star? That just means Guardians 2 is going to clean up big time.

    But instead, we get a hilarious amount of hole digging. A wise cartoon once said, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.”

  34. Geoff says:

    Obviously the marketing department for Universal delivered and then some for Jurassic World, but I never got all of the hate towards that first teaser trailer – it came out the same week as the first Star Wars teaser and I actually liked it better, thought it was fantastic.

    I loved the way they used the original JP theme towards the end and sorry, that last money shot of Chris Pratt riding alongside raptors was AWESEOME….I remember seeing it in a bar with a friend on a break during a Steelers game on Thanksgiving weekend and a few of us just went apeshit for that part, the movie was SOLD well no matter what you think of the quality.

    And JS, you keep dismissing the Jurassic phenomenon but I would advise you to see the chart linked below:

    Jurassic Park is the 16th highest grossing film ADJUSTED for inflation! It sold almost as many tickets as 2/3 of the original Star Wars trilogy, it sold MORE tickets than ANY comic book movie ever released….and this was just 22 years ago, so almost all of that audience was STILL made up of active moviegoers. This film was BIG, the audience was there for the taking, and it’s actually somewhat of a failure on Universal’s part that they were never able to fully capitalize it on until now. Though I’m sure that nobody at the current regime is crying right now…..

    Jurassic World will literally have to break Avatar’s modern domestic box office record to end up selling as many tickets as Jurassic Park did – did I think it would gross THIS much? No way, but I figured $400 million domestic was always a possibility.

  35. Geoff says:

    And look at that chart again – sorry I’m home sick today – but you also notice the dominance of older titles from before 1980:

    It is genuinely difficult to compare a film released today with The Sound of Music or Gone With the Wind, but you go back to 1993 and it’s not apples-to-apples when it comes to entertainment alternatives, but it’s not as far off either – in 1993, home video (rentals and sell-through) was huge, cable television had come into its own (CNN would regularly get 10 million viewers for the highest rated programs), and network television was in its last throes of dominance when the highest rated shows would exceed 30 million viewers on a weekly basis. So it’s not like Jurassic Park come out during the ‘Depression, there WERE other entertainment dollars to be spent…..

  36. Matt P. says:

    I remember back in 93 there were magazine box office predictions saying Last Action Hero was gong to take the summer crown over JP. Not too many, but they were out there.

  37. EtGuild2 says:

    TERMINATOR’s tracking puts it closer to $40 million, with INSIDE OUT, JW and MAGIC MIKE all bunched around $30…but I find that hard to believe. Regardless, $550 million by weekend’s end for JW is easily doable. AVENGERS holds the fastest to that number record at 31 days. AVATAR holds the record for $600 million at 45 days…that seems in jeopardy at the moment.

  38. Bulldog68 says:

    Man are those reviews for Terminator tanking. Saw it last night and Paramount asked for my review, which also wasn’t very pleasant.

    This keeps up and we will be looking at a 4peat for JW. I also think Magic Mike might be in a similar position to Ted 2. Or maybe Inside Out may be #1 this weekend with no new family offerings for the holiday weekend.

  39. Geoff says:

    I remember that too, Matt P – people forget that early in ’93 (before bad buzz started to build for Last Action Hero), Last Action Hero was considered the sure thing while Jurassic Park was a bit iffier – Schwarzenegger’s last film was Terminator 2 and Spielberg’s last film was Hook.

  40. Mostly Lurking says:

    I don’t remember JP being iffy but I do recall that it was considered a pick em’ between JP and Last Action Hero with nobody expecting JP to run away with the summer so easily.

  41. EtGuild2 says:

    I had JW 3rd this summer…my yearly US guess was

    10 Ant Man
    9. Jurassic World
    8. Inside Out
    7. The Good Dinosaur
    6. Spectre
    5. Minions
    4. Furious 7
    3. Mockingjay
    2. Avengers
    1. Star Wars


  42. RP says:

    I’m so excited for Ant Man to flop as far as Marvel movies go-it will take Ali coming out of retirement to fight Oscar, Floyd and Manny to get JS to explain the numbers on that one.

  43. brack says:

    JS – Inside Out is doing better business than any Pixar movie so far outside of Toy Story 3. You shouldn’t view this in the same prism as Disney Animation Studios. They do different stuff. Comparing this to Frozen is silly. Frozen had the musical aspect of it going for it, this one doesn’t, and it’s still doing great business. Big Hero 6 was not as successful as Frozen, so why are you fixated on the idea that Disney will make less movies with female protagonists? Go look at boxofficemojo if you think Inside Out is suffering compared to Frozen, and it still has plenty of territories to be released. Frozen didn’t open to #1 either, but so what?

  44. Geoff says:

    I’ll say this: Ant-man is NOT flopping, it’s going to do well. This movie has the full power of the Disney synergy machine behind it and they’re pulling out all of the stops right now just like they did for ‘Guardians last summer. And the early reviews seem pretty solid, which is why I’m surprised that they’re still embargoed.

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