By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
26 Weeks To Oscar: Resetting The Field For The Very First Time
Since the last column of “Setting,” 5 of the films mentioned have officially exited the playing field with firmed 2016 dates (The Coen Bros’ Hail Caesar!, Jodie Foster’s Money Monster, John Hillcoat ‘s Triple Nine, Richard Linkater’s Everybody Wants Some, and Jeff Nichols’ Midnight Special) and three have joined… Ryan Coogler’s Creed and Nicholas Hytner’s The Lady In the Van, and Michael Moore’s Where To Invade Next. (Please remember… this is a Best Picture list. There are other categories that other films not mentioned will certainly compete for and perhaps even win.)
One more note… no movie is going to get nominated for or win an Oscar based on what festival they opened at… or chose to open without a festival run. The choice is a strategy. It adds to the pot, it changes the flavor, it supplants other choices… it is a living, breathing moment in the history of all of these films. But with the increased awards aggression of Telluride and New York Film Festival in recent years, it has quickly become clear that the old thinking about festival season is now meaningless. Like opening movies, selling your awards hopeful is a long, long process and so long as your film opens in 2015 and shows in L.A. and N.Y. by December 5, you are as likely or unlikely as any other film with any other strategy to get into the race. It’s all about the movie… and the sell.
THE FESTIVAL RUN
TORONTO Premieres
Demolition – Jean-Marc Vallee – released by Fox Searchlight – They are claiming that this Opening Night film will be released mid-2016. If the film gets great reviews in Toronto (and if Everest is regarded as a commercial, non-awards entry), that will change, almost instantly. Doing TIFF without this goal would be nothing less than foolhardy.
The Danish Girl – Tom Hooper – distributed by Focus
The Lady In The Van – Nicholas Hytner – distributed by Sony (could be Tri-Star, could be Sony Classics)
Legend – Brian Helgeland – distributed by Universal
The Martian – Ridley Scott – distributed by Fox
The Program – Stephen Frears – no U.S. distributor yet
Trumbo – Jay Roach – distributed by Bleecker Street
Where To Invade Next – Michael Moore – no distributor yet
TELLURIDE TBAs (likely) that are going on to TORONTO
Black Mass – Scott Cooper – distributed by Warner Bros
Spotlight – Thomas McCarthy – distributed by Open Road
NYFF Premieres
Steve Jobs – Danny Boyle – distributed by Universal
The Walk – Robert Zemeckis – distributed by Tom Rothman’s TriStar
Already Premiered, Going To Festivals
Brooklyn – John Crowley – distributed by Fox Searchlight
Carol – Todd Haynes – distributed by The Weinstein Company
Sicario – Denis Villeneuve – distributed by Lionsgate/Summit
Youth – Paolo Sorrentino – distributed by Fox Searchlight
Already Theatrically Released Before Fall Festivals
Ex Machina – Alex Garland – distributed by A24
Inside Out – Pete Docter – distributed by Disney
Love and Mercy – Bill Pohlad – distributed by Roadside Attractions
Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller – distributed by Warner Bros
Mississippi Grind – Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck – distributed by A24
Ricki and the Flash – Jonathan Demme – distributed by TriStar
Southpaw – Antoine Fuqua – distributed by The Weinstein Co.
September/October/November Releases With No Apparent Domestic Festival Plan At This Time
Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg – distributed by Disney
Creed – Ryan Coogler – distributed by Warner Bros
Everest – Baltasar Kormákur – distributed by Universal
Our Brand Is Crisis – David Gordon Green – distributed by Warner Bros
Suffragette – Sarah Gavron – distributed by Focus Features
Late Year Releases (Some Which May Still Push To 2016), Which Won’t Likely Premiere Before AFI, November 5
Silence – Martin Scorsese – distributed by Paramount
In the Heart of the Sea – Ron Howard – distributed by WB
The Revenant – Alejandro G. Iñárritu – distributed by Fox
Snowden – Oliver Stone – distributed by Open Road
Joy – David O. Russell – distributed by Fox
The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino – distributed by The Weinstein Company
By The Sea – Angelina Jolie – distributed by Universal
Concussion – Peter Landesman – distributed by Columbia
I Saw The Light – Marc Abraham – distributed by Sony Classics
Longshots
A Bigger Splash – Luca Guadagnino – distributed by Fox Searchlight
45 Years – Andrew Haigh – distributed by Sundance Selects
Criminal – Ariel Vromen – distributed by Summit/Lionsgate
The Last Face – Sean Penn – no U.S. distributor
Regression – Alejandro Amenábar – distributed by The Weinstein Company
Seems pretty foolish to make this list without including Star Wars. If you’re considering Mad Max then you should assume Star Wars will be in that same class.
Wondering what has happened to The Light Between Oceans. Are they simply leery of Fassbender/Vikander vote-splitting, or is the film not up to par? Hopefully TIFF adds it even if it’s a 2016 release.
No love for Fassbender’s Macbeth? It seems like it has some dark horse quality to it, if not for Best Picture, Actor and Director, then at least for nominations in categories such as Supporting Actress (for Marion Cotillard), Cinematography (for Adam Arkapaw) and potentially costumes.