Gurus o’ Gold: In The Starting Gate
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 124 | |||||
2 |
The Martian |
9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 112 | |||||
3 |
Room |
3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 85 | |||||
4 |
Bridge of Spies |
7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 82 | |||||
5 |
The Revenant |
4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 75 | |||||||
6 |
Joy |
2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 73 | |||||||
7 |
Brooklyn |
5 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 64 | |||||
8 |
Steve Jobs |
8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 61 | |||||
9 |
Carol |
6 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 59 | ||||||
10 |
Inside Out |
3 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 35 | |||||||||
The Hateful 8 |
10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 27 | |||||||||
Mad Max: Fury Road |
12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 17 | |||||||||||
Son of Saul |
8 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||
The Danish Girl |
11 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
The BIg Short |
12 | 7 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
Youth |
12 | 10 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Sicario |
9 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
Beasts of No Nation |
10 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
45 Years |
11 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Trumbo |
12 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 74 | |||||
2 |
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 51 | |||||
3 |
Cate Blanchett Carol |
2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 50 | |||||
4 |
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 48 | |||||||
5 |
Carey Mulligan Suffragette |
5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24 | ||||||||
Lily Tomlin Grandma |
6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 21 | |||||||||
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
5 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 21 | |||||||||
Charlize Theron Mad Max: Fury Road |
7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Emily Blunt Sicario |
7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Maggie Smith The Lady In The Van |
4 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
Blythe Danner I'll See You In My Dreams |
6 | 1 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
MIchael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 63 | |||||
2 |
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 57 | |||||||
3 |
Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl |
4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 38 | |||||
4 |
Matt Damon The Martian |
5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 36 | |||||||
5 |
MIchael Caine Youth |
6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 31 | |||||||
Johnny Depp Black Mass |
3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 30 | |||||||||
Tom Hanks Bridge of Spies |
6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 | ||||||||||||
Steve Carrell The Big Short |
6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
Bryan Cranston Trumbo |
7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Ian McKellen Mr. Holmes |
5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
Will Smith Concussion |
4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Geza Rohrig Son of Saul |
6 | 1 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 69 | |||||
2 |
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 66 | |||||
3 |
Kate WInslet Steve Jobs |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 55 | |||||
4 |
Jane Fonda Youth |
5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 38 | ||||||
5 |
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful 8 |
4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 19 | |||||||||||
Joan Allen Room |
5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | |||||||||||
Elizabeth Banks Love & Mercy |
6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17 | |||||||||||
Rachel McAdams Spotlight |
7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
Kristin Stewart The Clouds of Sils Maria |
6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
Julie Waters Brooklyn |
7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
Jessica Chastain The Martian |
5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Helen Mirren Trumbo |
7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Marion Cotillard MacBeth |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Julianne Nicholson Black Mass |
7 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporing Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t1 |
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 64 | |||||
t1 |
Michael Keaton Spotlight |
5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 64 | |||||
3 |
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 39 | |||||||
4 |
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | ||||||||
5 |
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 29 | ||||||||||
Benicio del Toro Sicario |
2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 27 | |||||||||
Paul Dano Love & Mercy |
5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | ||||||||
Jacob Tremblay Room |
7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 13 | ||||||||||||
Samuel L. Jackson The Hateful 8 |
7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Robert DeNiro Joy |
7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Joel Edgerton Black Mass |
7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Edgar Ramirez Joy |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Jason Segal The End of the Tour |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Harvey Keitel Youth |
7 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 68 | |||||
2 |
Ridley Scott The Martian |
3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 55 | |||||||
3 |
Alejandro Inarritu The Revenant |
4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 38 | |||||||
4 |
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 29 | ||||||||
t5 |
Steven Spielberg Bridge of Spies |
6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 25 | |||||||
t5 |
David O. Russell Joy |
3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 25 | |||||||||||
Todd Haynes Carol |
2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | |||||||||||
Danny Boyle Steve Jobs |
5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 21 | ||||||||||
Lenny Abrahamson Room |
3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 12 | ||||||||||||
Lazlo Nemes Son of Saul |
6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Quentin Tarantino The Hateful 8 |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Pete Docter/Ronaldo del Carmen Inside Out |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
JJ Abrams Star Wars 7 |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Denis Villenueve Sicario |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Angelina Jolie By The Sea |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
John Crowley Brooklyn |
7 | 1 | 1 |
Come on, you all know Will Smith is getting that nomination.
You all slept on (and refused to consider) American Sniper last year. Week after week we told yall to wake up and include it.
And there you go: 6 Oscar nominations (including Best Picture, Editing, Actor).
This year it seems Steve Jobs and Son of Saul will be the films the weird Gurus will dismiss.
And Will Smith.
You can’t compare STEVE JOBS to AMERICAN SNIPER, Danny. JOBS has the “stink” of being a big money loser for Hollywood (which is a shame, since it’s a good film), whereas, when the voting took place for SNIPER (before it’s wide release, admittedly), Eastwood’s film was rightly thought to be another big success. The Academy doesn’t mind occasionally voting for small films that don’t make much money for them (HURT LOCKER) but they don’t vote for films that they know left a huge puddle of red ink on the ledgers. As for Will Smith, you may be right. Unless that film is really bad (has anyone seen it? Have you? Maybe it is) the Academy had BETTER fairly consider it. They don’t want another “Oscar So White” protest again this year.
I have heard Jane Fonda’s performance lasts 2.5 minutes. And people are still bitching about Beatrice Straight and Judi Dench winning for perfs with more screen time.
Is she that beloved by the Academy? Is it really good enough to keep Elizabeth Banks or Joan Allen out of one of the entirely appropriate spots? With Vikander and Mara dubiously up for “supporting” roles, and Kate Winslet riding on Fassbender’s work (Come on, that accent is bogus), one would hope the true supporting actresses win their deserved consideration.
“
Patryk, I spend some time with people from Eastern Europe including Poland. I thought Winslet’s accent was actually spot on. It’s a hard accent to do, and it does sound “wrong” to our ears sometimes. I knew a guy from Bulgaria who had such a strange sounding accent that people, upon first meeting him, occasionally thought he was putting them on! Just sayin’.
And Melinda Dillon received an Oscar nomination for ABSENCE OF MALICE when she was only on screen for something like 2-3 minutes, and she’s hardly as beloved as Fonda. It could happen, though you are right that it doesn’t quite seem appropriate. Though, it’s less unfair, really, than someone who’s a lead coming into the supporting category and beating REAL supporting performances.
It is a myth that Jane Fonda is in YOUTH for just two minutes. One scene that lasts at least 5 minutes, then two other shorter ones.
Have all these films been seen? When I see these lists I always wonder which predictions are based on fact and which are based on faith…
Heart of the sea is this year’s sniper.
Onside out can’t get enough number ones to avoid being eliminated in round one.
1. Joy
2. Bridge of Spies
3. The Martian
4. Spotlight
5. Brooklyn
6. The hateful 8
7. In the heart of the sea
8. Revenent
9. Star wars
10. Room
It is shocking to see Jacob Tremblay in 8th place so far behind the others. I think he is much closer than that but perhaps A24 spending almost to advertise their films has him so far behind.
I think it’s embarrassing that all of you are trying to make predictions for films that you haven’t seen – that NO ONE has seen yet – like Joy, Hateful 8, and Revenant. Stick to making predictions for films that you already have seen and know are good enough to be featured in the conversation.
Joe Gillis is pretty silly since that would be no Oscar predictions until mid December.
And Joe seems to think our personal reactions to the films is the only barometer, too. That’s actually one of the least reliable barometers. We don’t have to see CAROL to know from industry sources that TWC isn’t supporting it very well right now, but, that, on the other hand it won an award at Cannes and has the support of critics; therefore we can make predictions about it. Sheesh. Every year there are people who are absolutely stunned that, say, THE DARK KNIGHT didn’t get nominated for 10 Oscars, because… well they saw it and it was obviously “the best.” Not how it works.
Another Best Supporting Actress nominee w/ minimal screen time:
Jane Alexander in “All the President’s Men.”
Pretty decent predictions, although I think The Martian is currently the one to beat for BP.
Best Actress is interesting. I don’t see a clear frontrunner to win. It could go in so many different directions. If Lawrence delivers, she could win her second. But I think it’ll go to a newbie this year.
2015 seems like it’s shaping up to be Leo’s year in the same way that 2008 was Kate’s year. Fassbender is benefitting from quality at this point (he really is outstanding) but the disappointing box office will hurt him for the win. The movie is simply too great to ignore, so it will go back to getting glowing press like it did during the festival circuit, but a nomination will be as far as he goes. Voters are reluctant to award “flops”. I’m predicting that this will be Leo’s race to lose. We just have to wait and see if he delivers and if he does, that’s it.
First three ladies in Supporting Actress are pretty much unmovable at this point. They’ve been up there from the beginning and aren’t budging. There is no strong case for any of them being snubbed. Kate has already come out completely unscathed by SJ box office. Fonda is a big question mark. I would put Leigh over her. I also wouldn’t count out someone from Joy. DOR seems to have a knack for racking up acting nominations. The last 2 spots are definitely still open.
I can see Keaton winning Supporting Actor, maybe as a makeup for last year. I also think De Niro is way too low on the list.
You all are seriously underestimating BROOKLYN.
Spotlight is obviously this year’s BOYHOOD, and it is way too emotionally devoid to be a Best Picture winner.
It’s too meagre. Too low brow. There is no emotional pay-off. So it is not winning Best Picture. AMPAS voters will make sure of that.
BROOKLYN is going to sweep. And these Gurus will proclaim it a shock and surprise. But we all know it won’t be.
Bryan Cranston is FANTASTIC in “Trumbo”
Tom Hardy as Demonic Twins in Legend is Excellent, and Eddie Redmayne is again OUTSTANDING in “The Danish Girl” add in Michael Fassbender, and there is only one spot left. But these 4 gave the Best performances by a lead actor so far this year!
Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
Tom Hardy in Legend
and either Leonardo, Depp, McKellen, or Caine