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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Pre-Thanksgiving Nap Klady

Friday Esitmates 2015-11-15 at 9.22.59 AM

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10 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Pre-Thanksgiving Nap Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    PEANUTS doesn’t look like a profitable venture, which is very sad, but was pretty clear from the initial trailers. International just isn’t happening.

    Btw….here’s the 10 most profitable movies so far this year based on worldwide box office studio share (adjusted for China) and mean budget figures:

    10. Hotel Transylvania 2
    9. The Martian
    8. MI5
    7. Cinderella
    6. Fifty Shades of Grey
    5. Inside Out
    4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
    3. Furious 7
    2. Minions
    1. JW

    KINGSMAN and ANT-MAN just missed the cut for now. Other things that stand out..

    *Jurassic World appears to be the third most profitable movie ever made. Even if you use a budget of $250 million, it edges out the generous idea that DEATHLY HALLOWS 2 cost $125 million.

    *Furious 7 appears locked at #3 regardless of whether you add or delete the rumored $60 million rebate for Paul Walker’s death.

    *Universal would be insane not to make FIFTY SHADES 2, no matter how batshit EL James is. If it hadn’t been banned in China, the movie would have been more profitable than INSIDE OUT.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    Speaking of profitability, I would think SPECTRE needs to hit $800 million to have really been worth it, and to make a Craig finale worth it. Definitely doable, but something needs to change if your franchise movie needs $800m to be considered a real success.

  3. Gus says:

    Et – If I’m not mistaken a large share of the Bond budget is shared by advertisers and product placement. Tons of ancillaries, etc etc. I agree 750M looks like cash break-even but there is a lot of other motivation to make the film. Given that it’s already over 550 after two weeks, I think it’ll be more than fine long term.

  4. Doug R says:

    Peanuts is still pulling in over %6000 a screen. How is that not a sucess?

  5. spassky says:

    “If it hadn’t been banned in China, the movie would have been more profitable than INSIDE OUT.”

    Well, it was, and if it had been released here it would have made even less than inside out did here.

  6. spassky says:

    Sorry, adding that “here” means China.

    How much would “The Peanuts Movie” have to make domestically to break even? Did they ever think international would happen?

  7. Gus says:

    Yeah, kinda baffled people are down on the Peanuts movie. It’s going to kill during the Thanksgiving break, it’ll crack $150M domestic and then play on television for like twenty years. Not a home run, but still a win.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    It’s going to be the least profitable Blue Sky movie by a wide margin. $150 mil domestic would get it in the black…barely, and I hope it gets there.

    @spassky, really? Read a lot of stories about the book being traded like hotcakes on the black market. Is that not true…or would the shame of going to see the movie be too great?

  9. PcChongor says:

    Hey, even a broken censorship clock is right twice a day. Too bad the film still did well enough everywhere else to warrant the series being kept alive for at least the next ten years until it’s finally tanked by 50 Shades of Grey: The Ghost Dimension.

  10. cadavra says:

    Don’t forget that even in a depressed market, PEANUTS is gonna sell several shitloads of DVDs.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4