Gurus o’ Gold: Critics Week
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 127 | ||||
2 | 2 |
The Martian |
7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 119 | ||||
3 | 3 |
The Revenant |
3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 89 | ||||
4 | 4 |
Room |
8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 83 | ||||
5 | 5 |
Brooklyn |
2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 80 | ||||
6 | 7 |
Carol |
4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 76 | ||||
7 | 6 |
Bridge of Spies |
5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 74 | |||||
8 | 8 |
Joy |
5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 54 | ||||||
9 | 10 |
Inside Out |
7 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 34 | |||||||
10 |
Creed |
11 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 26 | |||||||
9 |
Steve Jobs |
10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 25 | |||||||
Mad Max: Fury Road |
6 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 24 | ||||||||||||
The Danish Girl |
8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 19 | |||||||||||||
The H8ful Eight |
9 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 18 | |||||||||||
The BIg Short |
10 | 12 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Straight Outta Compton |
11 | 11 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Son of Saul |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Youth |
12 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spotlight |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | |||||||||||
Carol |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
The Assassin |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
The Revenant |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Mad Max: Fury Road |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
Carol |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
The Martian |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Mad Max: Fury Road |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Room |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Anomolisa |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Son of Saul |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
The Hateful Eight |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leonardo DiCaprio |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | ||||||||||
Michael Fassbender |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Géza Röhrig |
1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Matt Damon |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Eddie Redmayne |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Tom Hardy Legend |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | |||||||||||
Matt Damon The Martian |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||
Michael Caine Youth |
1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Géza Röhrig Son of Saul |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
Tom Courtenay 45 Years |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Johnny Depp Black Mass |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brie Larson Room |
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | ||||||||||||
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
Cate Blanchett Carol |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Shu Qi The Assassin |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
Cate Blanchett Carol |
1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Regina Case The Second Mother |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Bel Powley Diary of a Teenage Girl |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Shu Qi The Assassin |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | ||||||||||
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
Tom Hardy The Revenant |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Paul Dano Love & Mecy |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Benicio del Toro Sicario |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Jason Segel The End of The Tour |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Dano Love & Mercy |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
Michael Keaton Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Jason Segel The End of The Tour |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Jacob Tremblay Room |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
Rooney Mara Carol |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful Eight/Anomalisa |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Elizabeth Banks Love & Mercy |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Kate Winslet Stve Jobs |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful Eight |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
Elizabeth Banks Love & Mercy |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
Kristen Stewart Clouds of Sils Maria |
1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Jane Fonda Youth |
1 | 1 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | NYFCC Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||
Todd Haynes Carol |
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||
Ridley Scott The Martian |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||
Hou Hsiao-Hsien The Assassin |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | LAFCA Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Todd Haynes Carol |
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |||||||||||||
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||
Ridley Scott The Martian |
1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Alejandro G. Iñárritu The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Hou Hsiao-Hsien The Assassin |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Charlie Kaufman Anomalisa |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Cary Fukunaga Beasts of No Nation |
2 | 1 | 1 |
Mad Max: Fury Road will sweep the critics Best Picture prize………funny that supposed “critic’s gurus” don’t even realize that.
Carol will win the odd Boston Critics or Utah Critics…..a far distant memory.
Expect the LA critics to go out of the box, the NY critics to play it safe. They usually do. Then, at the end of the day, expect the National Society of Film Critics to actually get it right. They almost always do.
Dandi! Already proven wrong. (Not that the Gurus did much better.) Ha! Go “Carol”!
Where’s that delete button when you need it? Carol’s not going anywhere.
Well, it’s going to the New York Film Critics Circle awards dinner, where it will pick up four prizes. Don’t you read the news releases of the day, Steve?
That was a reply to Dandi’s bold proclamation that Carol would be fading away into obscurity. But yeah, Daniella, in that sense, Carol’s going lots of places.
Gotcha. 🙂
Why is The Room still at #4. Obviously it will be a Best Actress and Supporting Actor….but it doesn’t seem to be catching much Best picture heat.
Given Harveys recent comments, I’d like to reiterate my seemingly annual assertion that there is too much prognostication and too little evaluation in awards punditry. I really don’t give a fuck in august or September what is being randomly predicted to be hot in December maybe, but I’d love to see the charts as they stand year to date at that point.
If the gurus weren’t allowed to include more than one guess per category until Oct 15th, voting only on what they’d personally watched that year up to that point, performances and films would be a lot stickier and less likely to be forgotten.
There is a self reinforcing negative feedback loop between the prognostication and the voters that exacerbates the problem of stacking the awards season with releases. We voters all use Google to try and remember what we’ve even seen or need to see this year, and find sites like this one or akin to this one and since the prognosticators never include non awards season selections to make room for more guesses about the unreleased so films are constantly forgotten in the chase for the next possible juvenile right guess (first!).
However the distributor has a role in this as well, as their awards consultants are on the phone or email with the prognosticators trying to persuade them movie or performance x is the new hot bet. Having fewer films that are mostly unseen makes the consultants job way easier.
Distributors could also do more to support their films in off season with screenings, screeners, panels, ad buys etc. If they’re not doing anything different to sustain off season movies that are worth it, why should anyone else make the effort?
FILM:
Spotlight
The Revanent
Mad Max: Fury Road
Brooklyn
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Youth
Room
Inside Out
The Big Short
Trumbo
ACTRESS:
Saoirse Ronan -Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett-Carol
Bree Larson-Room
Charlotte Rampling-45 Years
Maggie Smith-The Lady in the Van
Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
Bryan Cranston-Trumbo
Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl
Michael Caine-Youth
S. Actress:
Rooney Mara -Carol
Jane Fonda -Youth
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Jennifer Jason Leigh-The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet -Steve Jobs
S. Actor:
Idris Alba-Beasts of No nation
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Jacob Tremblay-Room
Tom Hardy-The Revenant
Paul Dano-Love and Mercy