Gurus o’ Gold: You Better Vote Good For Goodness Sake
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 109 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
The Martian |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 90 | ||||
| t3 | 3 |
Carol |
3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 70 | ||||
| t3 | 4 |
The Revenant |
5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 70 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Mad Max: Fury Road |
2 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 60 | |||||
| 6 | 6 |
Bridge of Spies |
9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 51 | ||||
| 7 | 9 |
The BIg Short |
4 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 50 | ||||
| 8 | 8 |
Room |
8 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 45 | ||||
| 9 | 7 |
Brooklyn |
6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 43 | |||||
| 10 |
Straight Outta Compton |
9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | |||||||||||
| 10 |
Inside Out |
8 | 10 | 2 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
10 | 10 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Joy |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Steve Jobs |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Beasts of No Nation |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Creed |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Must Watch Before Voting | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The BIg Short |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
|
Sicario |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
|
Beasts of No Nation |
* | * | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Tangerine |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mustang |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
45 Years |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Son of Saul |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Creed |
* | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Ridley Scott The Martian |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 61 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 50 | ||||
| 3 | 4 |
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 43 | ||||
| 4 | 3 |
Todd Haynes Carol |
3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 33 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Alejandro Inarritu The Revenant |
5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 | ||||
|
Steven Spielberg Bridge of Spies |
4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | |||||||||||
|
Lenny Abrahamson Room |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Adam McKay The Big Short |
4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Lazlo Nemes Son of Saul |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
David O. Russell Joy |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 66 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 53 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
Cate Blanchett Carol |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 46 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25 | |||||
| 5 | 5 |
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | |||||
|
Carey Mulligan Suffragette |
6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
|
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
|
Lily Tomlin Grandma |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
|
Charlize Theron Mad Max: Fury Road |
6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
|
Maggie Smith The Lady In The Van |
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Helen Mirren Womn in Gold |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Patricia Clarkson Learning To Drive |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Rooney Mara Carol |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Daisy Ridley The Force Awakens |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 65 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Matt Damon The Martian |
5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 44 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
MIchael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 40 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl |
5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 36 | |||||
| 5 |
Bryan Cranston Trumbo |
4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 21 | |||||||
|
Will Smith Concussion |
6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
| 5 |
Johnny Depp Black Mass |
2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
MIchael Caine Youth |
4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Tom Hanks Bridge of Spies |
3 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
MIchael B. Jordan Creed |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ian McKellen Mr. Holmes |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Mark Ruffalo Infinitely Polar Bear |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporing Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 |
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 58 | ||||
| 2 | 4 |
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 50 | ||||
| 3 | 5 |
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 36 | |||||
| 4 | 1 |
Michael Keaton Spotlight |
5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | |||||||||
| 5 | 3 |
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17 | ||||||||||
|
Paul Dano Love & Mercy |
6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 13 | |||||||||
|
MIchael Shannon 99 Homes |
4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |||||||||||||
|
Jacob Tremblay Room |
4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | |||||||||||||
|
Christian Bale The Big Short |
5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
|
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Benicio del Toro Sicario |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Steve Carell The BIg Short |
6 | 1 | -5 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 64 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 57 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
Kate WInslet Steve Jobs |
4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 37 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful 8 |
3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 32 | |||||
| 5 | 5 |
Jane Fonda Youth |
5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 14 | ||||||||
|
Helen Mirren Trumbo |
6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | ||||||||||
|
Rachel McAdams Spotlight |
4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Elizabeth Banks Love & Mercy |
5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Kristen Stewart Clouds of Sils Maria |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Lily Tomlin Grandma |
6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
It’s funny how Poland refuses to admit that DiCaprio is winning by default. He went from saying it wasn’t happening, to saying McKellan or MBJ would beat him, to now predicting Redmayne to repeat for a flop film? Who’s he moving onto next?
I find your lack of faith in THE FORCE AWAKENS disturbing.
Is the Academy really more excited about something like BRIDGE OF SPIES (good film but minor Spielberg)?
Yeah, Dave must be the only person on the planet picking Redmayne to repeat. I guess we’ll see.
There is such a thing as “such a big star that people resent him/her”, and Dave might be thinking that DiCaprio could fall victim to that. Oscar history is filled with minor stars who get nominated over and over while bigger stars get snubbed a surprising number of times. Redmayne is the kind of actor Oscar loves: British, self-deprecating, always in Oscar bait films. Decaprio is like Tom Cruise before he went nuts; a huge force but someone people might overlook out of sheer resentment of his level of stardom. Harrison Ford should have more nominations racked up by now than he does (total nods: one), and if Decaprio gets snubbed this year, it will be a shocker, but not that big of a shocker. On the other hand, Redmayne is exactly in the Academy’s sweet spot, if not for another win so soon, at least for a nomination.
Dave is pretty much The Grinch on Star Wars TFA, but I can absolutely see a scenario…with all the lackluster indecision on Best Picture, that TFA comes in and finally wins a Best Picture for the Star Wars series. It was the most fun I had at a movie theater this year..not to mention how many people would tune into the Oscars show to see that.
Star wars is absolutely a lock for picture and director nomination, the gurus are trapped in a self reinforcing critic bubble divorced from the reality of the changing season.
Yes, let’s face it, t has been a so-so year for movies, reflected in the guru’s list for Best Picture.
Did you hear all those people cheering at the end of your screening of SPOTLIGHT Did you see that line around the block for ROOM? Were there many REVENENT toys under your Christmas tree? Were you weeping at the end of THE DANISH GIRL?
Giving Star Wars TFA the Best Picture Oscar would be the right thing to do, both in terms of how the series has never won a Best Picture Oscar, is a critical success (94% on RT), and of course, a huge box office smash!
I should add that I’m not even a huge Star Wars fan…I like the first and second one…I think the prequels are god awful…but I was blown away by this one.
I still find it puzzling and frustrating that Love and Mercy, the finest film of the year, gets almost no love here, and virtually no chance for nominations. I hope the studio is promoting the hell out of this film that had the misfortune to be released in the summer.
DiCaprio’s people should send a screener of Jupiter Ascending to anyone thinking of giving Redmayne a second Oscar.
I wouldn’t have said this a month ago, but I think it’s DiCaprio’s to lose at this point.