Weekend Estimates by The Klady Awakens [SPOILERS LIE WITHIN]
Star Wars: The Force Awakens breaks all open records, reminding us that if the audience wants to see something and they don’t want to be the only one at the office on Monday who doesn’t know what the spoilers are, you could open it in one theater on Jakku and they will somehow show up.
We are now in a period in which leaps in how huge an opening are happening, which doesn’t make them any less impressive.
Here’s a chart of which films hit which landmark (by 10s) first.
The estimated leap from Jurassic World to Start Wars 7 is $31 million. The big leap before that was the $38 million leap from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2‘s $169 million in 2011 to The Avengers‘ $207 million in 2012. The leap before that was 2006’s Pirates 2’s $136 million to 2007’s Spider-Man 3’s $151. Before that, there was a relatively wide space between not only big leaps, but the record itself, as Spider-Man was on top with $115 million from 2002 until 2006’s Pirates 2’s $136 million.
We’ve seen the top opening grow $123 million, more than doubling itself, in just 13 years. Of course, 13 years before that, Batman set the opening record with $40 million, so what is more weighty, the 13-year $75 leap (2.9x growth) or the current 13-year leap (1.9x growth). And in 2028, can we expect the first $500m domestic opening?
The rest of the weekend wasn’t very interesting. The Danish Girl acquitted itself well in its expansion to 81 screens. The Big Short dropped, but still has a nice 8 screen per screen. Likewise, Carol continues to kick along on 16 with solid per-screen averages.
“$192m opening weekend.”
Could have been a $192m opening weekend – it’s as good a guess as the crazy $300m+ projections that other people were throwing around Friday.
I’m still disappointed that it wasn’t a cool billion.
Underperforming Jedis.
Movie, the world changed, and this is the world now. Enjoy the Revenant on Friday!
Genuinely curious to hear David explain his 40% comment in the Friday estimates.
not gonna give david shit for his “$200 million is an over the top expectation and not realistic” columns.
I enjoyed “TFA” more than “The Revenant,” dude.
The Inarritu is like Faux Terrence Malick directing a faux Sam Peckinpah western.
David’s original skepticism was excusable, if a little obtuse and relying too much on figures that didn’t reveal the whole picture. Refusing to see the writing on the wall in his Friday column and trying to mathematically prove that $200 million still wasn’t going to happen was just obstinate, the mark of someone who can’t actually type the words “I was wrong”, and when the final tally is in giving us the “I had no idea people were THIS crazy” b.s.
Not only did it clear $200M, it added an extra $40M on top of it. How does that fit in with your equation?
David’s attempt at a knowing dismissal of the fact that his prediction was totally wrong is amusing. The “one theater in Jakku” line actually makes no sense. No shame in being wrong.
I appreciate that David attempted to construct a Nate Silver type prediction based on December records, but reading his column again, I’m struck by how I don’t see any mention of the number of actual screens showing the movie, or the percentage that are charging more for 3D shows, or the number of extra shows that exhibitors were scheduling, etc. His argument seemed to boil down to the idea that it is inconceivable that a movie could exceed the record for the month or season by more than 100%. That it would be unprecedented. That’s a weak argument because we’re talking about something like 25 years of box office history, not exactly a huge sample. And in any case, it’s obvious that this is an almost completely unique situation that is unlikely to be repeated: the single most known and celebrated popular movie franchise returns with the original cast, among them one of the biggest stars in movie history in one of his two most iconic roles. And a new production team was brought in with the implication that the enormously well-known script/taste issues from the last trilogy would be cleaned up, generating even more interest. Not only that, unlike something like Avatar, whose appeal is based more on sensation-which means that it’s more immune to spoilers-Star Wars has the most spoilers sensitive moment in franchise movie history, and perhaps several of the top 10. And the marketing of the movie deliberately played to that by having Mark Hamill be invisible. So everything was aligned for maximum box office at the beginning.
It would be one thing if there were some statistical argument about the absolute limits of box-office for a three (four) day period. That would be interesting.
He’s just bad at this.
David may have been wrong about his prediction but I am appreciative of him being one of the few in the media to criticize the movie. The Force Awakens is not a good movie and a horrible Star Wars film.
Misery loves company?
I just went back a re-read some of DPs “analysis” and in hindsight it’s good for a chuckle. I’m not sure why DP just can’t admit to being wildly off and move on but saying he’s wrong has never been one of his strengths.
It’s almost as crazy as those projections of $11 million for ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS.
I don’t want to critique DP. But I genuinely want to know where his numbers came from.
A full half-day Thursday is not Friday, and adding $60 marathon screeenings of other movies in the series to a weekend total for this movie shouldn’t be allowed either. It’s just another ploy to keep making “records”, like adding costlier 3D tickets, when in actuality theater attendance keeps going down. Teens are abandoning movie-going in favor of video games and social media and Hollywood’s reliance on remakes and sequels isn’t giving them a thrilling surprise experience, only a pleasant familiarity which doesn’t bide well for a decade from now. Will people be thrilled with rebooting of the same franchises which weren’t original to begin with?
Unless somehow I’m personally getting a piece of every dollar The Force Awakens made over the previous record holder, I don’t care. These arguments are for Disney bean counters.
Dave may think he’s the Nate Silver of film box office, but he’s not knowledgeable enough about statistics or comps to ever be in that realm. He gambled against the odds and bet on Force Awakens coming in low, which is something that would’ve gotten him in the news had he been right. But dude, just let up. Go back to school and look at basic statistical models and not your made up movie numbers.
Also, the movie’s fun. Lighten up, Francis.
As I wrote earlier and somehow got deleted – this entire conversation from DP = what a fiasco.
Lynch, you need to look at sales data, because teenagers aren’t buying video games. They are watching adults playing video games, because ADULTS ARE THE ONES WHO BUY THESE GAMES! Seriously man, movies are fine, and they will continue to be fine. Please continue to go on rants better suited for 2010, then 2015.
Hal, that’s skirting the issue. This is another example of Dave putting himself out there, and having it blow up in his face. It doesn’t really matter at the end of the day, but it’s just so damn funny.
JS is 100% right. Except about who Rey’s dad is.
Actual numbers are 247 for the weekend.
That’s a little higher than 192.
So Dave’s prediction was off by 78million dollars? And he hasn’t even mentioned it. That is hysterical.
Uh no, Man. No. It’s about SKYWALKERS, and she is the new one.
So that’s the 40% bump Dave was talking about. 40% up from the all time opening weekend record. Now I get it.
I had the same guess as JS regarding parentage as the credits rolled on TFA.
Bulldog, that would make sense, except he said 40% over the previous December record…
My attempt at some good natured ribbing Palmtree.
@JS I never said teens buying of video games is increasing, I said video games and social media is taking more of their attention at the expense of movie-going. Where are the original movies nowadays that could possibly be sequelised in the future? It’s a revolving door of the same franchises now. Sure some people will still go to Iron Man 7 in 10 years with a different actor but will anyone be excited by discovering a new property that will define their generation? Hollywood has basically abandoned whole swaths of entertainment in movies like dramas and romances, thrillers, even horror is in dire straits. These genres are now the domain of television/streaming services. Where’s the talent scouting of today…movie stars aren’t generally the prettiest young thing which is who is being given shots in today’s industry. If they’ve never had a hard time in life, how can they portray emotion on screen? Maybe Hollywood wants actors who don’t demand big salaries for being able to open movies base on their name. But then you’re left with pale copies of past known franchises. Do you seriously think that movies “will continue be fine” this way?
@JS NOPE. Waaaaaay too obvious that’s the direction they’re pointing at. You’re falling for it hook, line, sinker.
Man, let me put it to you this way: I knew the story of this movie last year. Trust me, she’s a Skywalker. If you think she’s not a Skywalker, then you ignored every clue they gave you.
Lynch, you seem to be all over the fucking field with that response. Here’s the thing: the movies weathered the depression, they weathered WWII, and they have weathered everything that has followed. People from the 20s are not the same people from our upcoming 20s. Movies adapt and change, and that’s why they are important. If I told you 10 years, just TEN YEARS AGO, that the biggest franchise in the world would begin with an Iron Man movie starring ROBERT DOWNEY JR. You’d laugh in my face. If I told you that franchise would be coming up on movie 14, and 1/4 of those movies were in the top ten box office champs of all-time. You’d ask me what drugs I had been using. That’s just five years ago. Things change, movies adapt, and that’s why they will be fine.
She is not a Skywalker. There’s no way they are doing anything that obvious.
The film insinuates she is.
Hmmm’s got it. It evidently won’t be till the end of 8 that everyone else does. I can wait.
“Uh no, Man. No. It’s about SKYWALKERS, and she is the new one. ”
Guess, internet blackout was the only choice for those who can’t see Star Wars until Jan. 9. 🙁
Don’t worry spassky, this is all speculation.
——- MASSIVE SPOILERS ——–
i just hope they have a wake or something for Han in the next one, some nice finger food, a raising of glasses by family/friends with some words of remembrance for the old coot, a nice plaque somewhere, some closure, geeze
(and of course rey is luke’s baby girl, she’s luke v2.0: his sabre called out to her; autie knows/embraces her long and hard when rey deplanes the falcon and they share a long look, never having even met before; whiny-ass-punk pack-a-sad emo dork realises his cuz has more force in her pinkie finger than he does in his entire burlap-sack-wearing bod, wants her to join him; and that look at the end from l skywalker, next line, ‘no you keep it rey, time to pass the weapon of the jedi knight on to the next gen’ – weird that nobody seems to be asking ‘who is rey’s mother?’ funny that)
also, glad jj won’t be writing or directing the next one, he didn’t royally fuck it up but his fingerprints are all over the aspects of the movie that aren’t shiny and chrome
Again, note that the instant Han finds out Rey’s name, the first thing he does is offer her a job on the Falcon. Up until then he just wanted to dump her and Finn at the first opportunity. He knows full well who she is.
Ain’t Luke’s kid. I think you’re reading way too much into Han offering her a job. He offered her a job because she proved herself very capable, and let’s face it: the script is filled with dopey coincidences that work out for everyone.
“Ain’t Luke’s kid.” oh really? based on what
It’s a misdirect. Too, too obvious. Like in the trailer when they have Ford’s voice over focus on Finn when he says the word “Jedi”.
If it really is a remake of the original trilogy as many are complaining, she would have to by Kylo Ren’s kid. Obviously, that’s not the case, so she must be the spawn of the Supreme Leader. Maybe Supreme Leader isn’t a guy? Rey, I am your mother! As a benefit, Luke can still be the dad.
Looks like a $40 million Monday with a Sunday to Monday drop comparable to Avatar (according to Forbes). Wowser!
Yup $40 million on a non-holiday Monday?! Impressive, most impressive – this film’s likely to clear $600 million domestic by New Year’s. Avatar’s domestic record is falling for sure.
Dave has been pretty absent here.
i don’t really buy ‘too obvious’ as an explanation in this SW scenario because a shitload of stuff so far has been glaringly obvious, such as that
———- SPOILERS ——————
han’s son was going to kill him out on that catwalk, that they would destroy the (dumb) new fat deathstar v2.0, that kylo would get away, yada yada yada, the obvious stuff is endless – and not every identity is or has to be some big fake out, they need a familial connection for luke in the story, it’s all about the fam – though a friend of mind suggested that rey could actually be luke’s granddaughter given the age gap, who in any case survived the massacre by kylo at luke’s little school thing (i’ll need to see it again to remember the names of everything) and was then abandoned horribly on that planet to fend for herself, poor little lonely rey. and a few things suggest kylo knows who the ‘girl’ is as well, also han – when maz asks him ‘who’s the girl?’ it cuts away and next thing you know maz is down in her basement because she knows luke’s sabre is down there and shit could get real with magic-y things happening given the family connection with rey, and she’s right.
(i thought the supreme leader could be palpatine’s master darth guy who’s survived somehow unbeknownst, looked it up: darth plagueis)
Okay! Your wild theorizing all sounds plausible. I guess we’ll see what happens in a couple of years.
exactly how is what i’ve said above, which pertains directly to what is in the actual movie, ‘wild theorizing’?
Nuttin!
On another note, one point I wish people would stop harping is Rey beating Ren at the end. Watch. The. Fuckin. Movie. Ren is injured, massively insecure, and not quite a finished product in skills or abilities. I’d have to see the movie again but it’s not like he didn’t show up for the fight. She simply got the drop on him till the planet split open. I can buy it.
tl;dr fuck off, Max Landis. Stick to writing about professional wrestling.
Anakin had no father, so why does Rey have to have one? Just saying…
max landis said something re SW? (here’s hoping he hasn’t unkindly criticised anyone else for being a shitty screenwriter because that would be some hilarious irony right there)
i rather liked how rey fights with the lightsabre, pretty much exactly how she wields her junkyard pole, lots of thrusting and poking and blocking and bashing. luke’ll sort her out
Actually, Anakin technically had a father in Plagueis, because he created him. Again, it’s technically, but this is what happened in the canon of Star Wars.
Leah, he said some sexists bullshit, because a Mary Sue is a totally sexists fucking conceit on every level. He’s a fucking screenwriter, so he should have been able to put the clues tofuckingether about her birth.
@Leahnz, what JS said. And yes he did shit all over the writing. And yes it is ironic.
I liked the way she fought too, which goes to my point as to why she could have gotten the upper hand with Ren at that moment. She was skilled with stick weapons. This wasn’t a bumpkin who just picked up a pole. She obviously had to train herself to survive on Jakku. Just thinking this over makes me realize how much of a moron Landis is. Mary Sue. Fuck you, Max. Stick to fan fic. Your professional stuff sucks.
ah the mary sue thing re rey is inane (and the double-standard in applying the same ‘logic’ to male hero protagonists is glaring), i didn’t realise max landis was the source of it but i’m not surprised somehow, what a bummer his idiotic attempt at a take-down of rey has spread.
in the context of the story rey is a well-drawn, well performed character (i adore her), and though i thought the writing/direction of the movie as a whole was a mixed bag the core characters of rey and fin (and their dynamic together and with Han, Po and the others as the story progresses) is rather special and carries the movie.
‘the force awakens’ IN REY, this is the whole point, the (rather silly) title finally makes sense – she is the titular vessel clearly possessed of incredible dormant power and destiny that unfolds quickly but in the context of the SW world with a certain internal logic; she learns and adapts quickly and convincingly thanks to her background having to fend for herself and fight to survive (i really liked her opening scenes as a desolate, lonely imp scraping by on the planet of sand), she’s a tough, resourceful, clever, self-reliant young person who learns on her own to open herself up to her burgeoning power as she goes, she’s a wonderful character and to try to degrade or dismiss her using the term ‘mary sue’ is awful and shall not stand
David–Nice seeing you on “Hardball!” Wish you’d been on longer, but I guess Trump was about to make another speech.
@leah, thank you for bringing up the double standard vis a vis male characters. It’s what I posed to David regarding his review. He described heroic attributes Rey possesses in the context of a FEMALE hero, but I don’t think he realizes he was just describing a HERO. To me, her interplay with Finn was almost meta commentary on the issue. “I know how to run without you grabbing my hand.”
With all this theorizin’ going on maybe they cut off the final scene too soon:
(SPOILERS)
The female warrior finishes the long climb up the stairs and approaches the hooded figure, who turns to face her.
LUKE: Rey… I am your father!
{Fade to black}
I think it’s more compelling if she’s not a Skywalker, because it she is, then it would be like saying the Force flows through everything and binds us…but only if you have the right bloodline??? Not a great message.
Can’t wait for DP’s imminent post about the statistical impossibility of The Force Awakens hitting 1 billion domestic.
Well considering $1 Billion is ONLY 40% higher than the current record, it’s not that impressive.
lol @ palmtree
I’m waiting for Todd Phillips to weigh in on this.
yes rey is on a hero’s journey, she just happens to be female (i hadn’t read DP’s other threads on TFA trying to avoid stuff before i’d seen the movie, yikes)
i’m glad to have seen TFA again with my gaggle of teens/young adults, the aspects that i liked the first time around grew on me more and the things i thought were sub-par were still there, so an uptick overall
— SPOILERS — re this mary sue BS, rey DOES screw up, have moments of fear and doubt and experience defeat – for instance she cringingly keeps dragging the millennium falcon’s wingtip in the sand (i actually love that part); refuses luke’s sabre in spite of it calling to her, afraid of it; she’s easily defeated by Ren the first time, he could have killed her but instead carries her unconscious onto the ship to interrogate her for the location of BB8/the plans; and even in his wounded state in their final showdown he could have killed her by pushing her off the cliff but he hesitates and tries to get her to join him, which gives her a moment to focus and feel this strange power she has. probably the most telling moment of that final bit is when Ren force-reaches for the lightsaber after laying finn out and it flies past him into rey’s hand – she has mad natural force skills she doesn’t understand but adapts to take advantage of because that’s how she’s survived thus far all by herself in a harsh life-or-death environment, her self-reliance is innate and perfectly reasonable in the story, she’s had no-one to help her or to count on so she naturally counts only on herself, which makes her growing camaraderie with finn – a somewhat kindred spirit in a sense that he’s also a lonely soul on his own personal journey of self-determination and finding his identity – a beautiful bond at the heart of the film. watching it again at one point there’s a wide close-up shot of finn and rey’s faces in some nice light and i was struck by the aesthetic beauty of it, their contrasting but complimentary skin tones and eyes, and what a rarity it is in mainstream cinema to have an ‘ebony and ivory’ moment like that between this man and woman, and it made me both happy and sad that such moments and characters are so rare. i think the film-makers deserve some real kudos for choosing to portray rey and finn this way, and it works so well; maybe it’s because of the time of year and i tend to get melancholy and sappy but i really appreciated it
Palm, the force flows through the Skywalkers are a higher rate, because it was DESIGNED TO DO SO. The Saga films are about Skywalkers, Rey is the daughter of Luke, and it will be up to her (and Finn and the resistance) to rebuild the Jedi.
She is not Luke’s daughter. If it was that simple they would have said it in this one.
It is that simple, and they didn’t say it in this one for a reason. The reason? They want to add another mystery for Episode VIII. She picked up that lightsaber, and that lightsaber is for SKYWALKERS. Also, seriously, why would Obi-Wan and Yoda care about a no-one? They care about the daughter of Luke, because they know Luke needs his daughter to get him back in the game.
i wouldn’t bet the family fortune rey is luke’s daughter or anything (tho i believe she is) but to argue she’s not ‘because they would have said so’ is bizarre
“he’s not going to say ‘fuck stick’ in front of the children is he?!” ah christmas movies, bless
They wouldn’t lose a gigantic emotional heartfelt ending with Luke being reunited with his daughter just for the sake of a mystery.
This has been a weird year….I can’t remember a Holiday season on this blog so dominated by one film….a film that has zero chance at serious award season success. Even AVATAR…David’s posts didn’t attract the type of clamor given the relative traffic he had back in 2009 to now.
Also, I can’t remember such a vacuum for Oscars at this point. It’s not quite as pronounced as DP thought….SPOTLIGHT appears to have displaced MARTIAN….but it says something that MAD MAX has gained serious momentum in recent weeks.
And I can’t remember a top 10 list like I’ve had this year, dominated almost entirely by great movies released months ago that have little shot for glory…IT FOLLOWS, DUKE OF BURGUNDY, CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA, MOMMY, LOOK OF SILENCE, TIME OUT OF MIND….even the Robert Heinlein sci-fi adaptation with Ethan Hawke, PREDESTINATION, blew me away far more than many on the docket for accolades.
Don’t know if I liked 2015 or not, but it was interesting.
It is weird that the force is with the Skywalker family when Jedi are not supposed to have kids. It’s in the rule book. So if force powers are hereditary, that rule makes no sense. Unless they wanted to die out, I guess?
So who is Rey? As Yoda once said, “There is another. “
This awards season seems even weaker than most years (that’s saying something). I have a feeling the Oscars will once again be low rated, maybe even worse or about the same as last year. I don’t go to the movies nearly as much as I used to, but when Fury Road is a nominee, I can’t help but think it must be a weak year. It was a decent movie. Oscar-worthy? That’s debatable.
Back to TFA – what is Rey’s midi-chlorian count? Seems as good as any paternity test. 😉
“Also, seriously, why would Obi-Wan and Yoda care about a no-one?”
You mean, like say, Anakin Skywalker? He was also a nobody when they found him, no?
Seriously, this argument is beyond dopey at this point. Movie isn’t out for two years. We’re all just completely guessing.
Rey doesn’t have to be Luke’s kid to be a somebody. That’s the point.
Uh no, she does have to be Luke’s kid to be someone the SAGA FOLLOWS! That saber doesn’t go to her hand, because she’s know one. Also, Qui Gonn knew Ani was special the first time he saw him. Shit. They were drawn to fucking Tattooine. Nevertheless, if you think they WOULD put a heartfelt reunion with Rey and Luke at the end of the movie, because who needs that mystery? Well, folks, that’s JJ to a fucking “T” people.
Also, Ethan, the Academy are fucking more white privileged than normal. If they ignore noms for TFA in multiple categories. We all know it doesn’t have to win, but these motherfuckers have a show that’s dying on the vine. A show that keeps their little Academy going, so they best come correct for a millennial audience who doesn’t care for old people/boomer bullshit. You and I both know TFA will get like seven noms, but people seeing this movie in droves and loving it? They assume the Academy will throw them a bone for once.
brack: The concept of “Oscar-worthy” is ALWAYS debatable. Nothing funnier to me when people get bent out of shape EVERY YEAR about the Oscar nominations because the Academy overlooked the “Oscar-worthiness” of their favorite film. But if they think Oscar always gets it “wrong,” then wouldn’t they find “Oscar-worthy” to be a derogatory term?
For the sake of the Oscarcast’s ratings, I hope they nominate TFA for Best Picture. I think I’d get a real kick out of seeing all the internet outrage when it lost to Spotlight or whatever. (And that’s nothing against TFA, which I haven’t seen.)
JS, there’s a possibility that Rey is not Luke’s child but yet still fulfills the SAGA. In other words, she’s someone else’s daughter…
Palm, these movies are about the Skywalkers. Rey carries on the legacy, because that’s how the SAGA movies work. If you want to watch Star Wars movies, that don’t feature Skywalkers. You will get your chance with Rogue One next Xmas. Until then, she’s his kid, and they mystery boxed her to repeat the same damn gag. Kasdan admitted as much about the gags, so get ready for another generation to experience a newer version of, “I am your father.”