Gurus o’ Gold: Down To The Nomination Wire…
Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 107 | ||||
2 | 2 |
The Martian |
7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 86 | ||||
3 | t5 |
Mad Max: Fury Road |
2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 81 | ||||
4 | 7 |
The BIg Short |
3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 80 | ||||
5 | 4 |
The Revenant |
6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 74 | ||||
6 | t5 |
Bridge of Spies |
8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 48 | ||||
t7 | 9 |
Brooklyn |
5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 45 | ||||
t7 | 3 |
Carol |
4 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 45 | ||||
t9 | t10 |
Straight Outta Compton |
8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 15 | |||||||
t9 | 8 |
Room |
10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 15 | ||||||||
Sicario |
9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
t10 |
Inside Out |
9 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
Beasts of No Nation |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Ex Machina |
10 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Brie Larson Room |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 42 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Cate Blanchett Carol |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 33 | ||||
4 | 5 |
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | |||||
5 | 4 |
Jennifer Lawrence Joy |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 13 | |||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Helen Mirren Womn in Gold |
5 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
4 | 1 | 2 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | ||
2 | 3 |
MIchael Fassbender Steve Jobs |
3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 31 | ||
4 | 5 |
Bryan Cranston Trumbo |
4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 25 | ||
3 | 4 |
Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl |
4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 25 | ||||
5 | 2 |
Matt Damon The Martian |
5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | ||||
Johnny Depp Black Mass |
2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||
Steve Carell The Big Short |
5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Rooney Mara Carol |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 52 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 33 | |||||||
3 | 3 |
Kate WInslet Steve Jobs |
4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 31 | ||||
4 | 4 |
Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful 8 |
3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 27 | ||||
5 |
Alicia Vikander Ex Machina |
5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |||||||||||||
Helen Mirren Trumbo |
2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
5 |
Jane Fonda Youth |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||||||
Rachel McAdams Spotlight |
5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Kristen Stewart Clouds of Sils Maria |
5 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporing Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies |
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 48 | ||||
2 | 2 |
Sylvester Stallone Creed |
2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | ||||
3 | 3 |
Idris Elba Beasts of No Nation |
3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20 | ||||||||
4 | 5 |
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight |
1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 18 | ||||||||||
5 |
Christian Bale The Big Short |
5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | |||||||||
Paul Dano Love & Mercy |
4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
MIchael Shannon 99 Homes |
4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
4 |
Michael Keaton Spotlight |
5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Benicio del Toro Sicario |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Tom Hardy The Revenance |
4 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
Jacob Tremblay Room |
5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Harrison Ford Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
5 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 |
Ridley Scott The Martian |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 46 | ||
2 | 3 |
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 42 | ||
3 | 2 |
Tom McCarthy Spotlight |
1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 39 | ||
4 | 5 |
Alejandro Inarritu The Revenant |
5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | ||
5 | 4 |
Todd Haynes Carol |
3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | ||||||
Adam McKay The Big Short |
5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Original Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Spotlight |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | |||||
2 |
Inside Out |
2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 36 | ||||||
3 |
The Hateful Eight |
3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 | |||||||||
4 |
Bridge of Spies |
3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | ||||||||
5 |
Ex Machina |
4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | |||||||||
Striaght Outta Compton |
4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
Son of Saul |
2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||||
Trainwreck |
5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
Youth |
5 | 1 | 1 |
Rank | Last Chart | Best Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Ellwood | Feinberg | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Votes | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
The Big Short |
5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 45 | |||
t2 |
Carol |
1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 30 | |||
t2 |
Steve Jobs |
4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 | ||||
4 |
The Martian |
1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 24 | |||||
5 |
Room |
3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 | ||||||
Brooklyn |
2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
It might be the current favorite, but I wonder if “Spotlight” might be handicapped by a shortage of category nominations. What if it’s only up for Picture, Director and Screenplay?
Pat may be right about “Spotlight.” And I keep waiting for people who aren’t in jobs connected with journalism (in other words, not professional film critics) to realize “Spotlight” is just not that special–a solid film like we get from HBO (“And the Band Played On,” etc.), nothing more. But film critics think of themselves as journalists (some of them, of course, are–some not so much) and they eat up anything that makes them look like heroes. (And is it just me, or do others think the real standouts in that movie were Liev Schreiber and Stanley Tucci, who are getting zip in terms of attention?)
Dead on re: Tucci, Schreiber. I think I posted the exact same thing here a couple weeks ago. Those are the 2 best perfs in the movie, easy.
the big short is poised to steal this.
Only one film in history has grossed more than 1.6 billion worldwide in 2015 dollars and failed to earn a Best Picture nomination, and the director of that film won Best Picture with a film released the same year (Jurassic Park, Schindler’s List). Star Wars has nearly crossed that line in three weeks, and it’s one of the 10 films most named by critics on top 10 lists (actually 11th despite 200+ critics publishing their lists without having seen it).
One 10th place vote? Really?
Oh, and Star Wars has more best-film-of-year votes from critics than The Martian, The Big Short, The Revenant, and Bridge of Spies (as well as Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and Beasts of No Nation).
nm
Star Wars missed PGA and WGA. Critics don’t vote Oscar. It’s dead, Jim.
A24’s lack of money has killed Room and Jacob.
Cant agree with a lot of these predix
Surely Room is more probable than Carol for BP. Also Shannon more probable than Ruffalo (no SAG). And Inside Out is a lock for Screenplay, cmon Poland. 5th?
With PGA shunning Carol and Room, I’m gonna make a wild, unsupported by anything other than a hunch prediction that Brooklyn will be the surprise Best Picture winner (maybe even the first since Driving Miss Daisy to win without a Best Director nomination?). I haven’t even seen it, but it seems like those who love it REALLY love it, so maybe lots of first-place votes? And, what the heck, Ronan will beat Larson too.
But no, I won’t bet money on any of this.
Eric – I am in agreement with you regarding SW. The reason AMPAS created the 10 nominees for BP was because of the uproar that occurred after TDK was not nominated despite rave reviews and good box office. Now no BP nom for SW. Guess it could still get in without the guild moms, but less likely. Their plan did not work. So the public’s reaction will be quite interesting.
Anyone that has Star Wars in a top 10 isn’t a critic to be taken seriously. The movie is a mess. Full of awful plotholes and misses.
My gut tells me STAR WARS squeezes in to an expanded field of 9 or 10 (but gets nothing else but tech nods.) After all the voting took place as it was breaking record after record and all those celebratory articles hit about its diverse cast of characters. (Voters can feel like they’re fighting the pro-women and anti-racist fight without having to vote for an even slightly challenging film in those regards–COMPTON, CAROL.)
If it doesn’t, though, I think it’s going to be hard for the general public (save the Star Wars fanatics) to say Oscar is still elitist and highbrow when they surely will have nominated MAD MAX and THE MARTIAN. They’ll throw a snit fit like they did when THE DARK KNIGHT struck out and nobody will care much.
Back on the OTHER hand though, if SW *is* nominated, along with MAX and MARTIAN, the ratings will be at 1998-TITANIC levels, maybe even higher. Then, when, unlike TITANIC (and LORD OF THE RINGS III), it loses to some low budget film like SPOTLIGHT or BROOKLYN), we’ll be back to hearing all the “Oscar’s a snob” whining all over again. And so it goes.
The fact is that SW doesn’t need Oscars to generate box office like the smaller independents do. And indeed it can be argued that some of these films are superior. However, a nomination alone would be an acknowledgment of its success both as a film and a cultural phenomenon.
Daneilla! I am not a jounalist and I think Spotlight should win best picture. It has the best screenplay I have heard on a long time. With a wonderful cast.
Well, we just disagree, Ed. To me it’s a TV movie, not cinema.