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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Zookladya

Friday Estimates 2016-03-05 at 9.37.08 AM

I’ve seen estimates of Zootopia at over $70 million for the weekend, which compares the film not to other traditional animated openings, but to the adult-skewing The Lego Movie and the extremely young-skewing The Lorax. It could happen. We’ll find out today. It’s a very good, quirky, strong message movie about inclusion.

London Has Fallen is trying really hard to be Olympus Has Fallen 2, but won’t do White House Down business. Still, if the film was close to the original’s budget and flips the domestic gross ($98m) with the international ($98m) this time, it will still be a decent piece of business.

Deadpool has passed $300m domestic.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is a well-intended, enjoyable enough film… should have been better… was probably never going to do much box office. Ficarra & Requa are among our most interesting rising directors right now, but their taste for the extreme without the pandering hasn’t found its home run yet, with Crazy. Stupid. Love. being a solid triple that felt like it could have gotten out of the park. Focus actually did the most business, but also felt like there was a bigger movie in there. It’s odd. WTF will be their lowest grosser since their barely released debut, I Love You, Phillip Morris. But you just know that with one of their movies, they will hit a $400 million grosser comedy with romance and meaning and once in that groove with be the Hal Ashby/Paul Mazursky they seek to be (not that those guys often had massive box office success, either).

The Revenant benefited from its Oscar showing last weekend, in spite of missing the big award, with just a 9% drop this Friday. We’ll see how the expansion of Best Picture winner Spotlight will do this weekend, though it appears that the gross will be under $2 million.

We have TWO $10,000 per-screen indies this weekend in Malick’s Knight of Cups (on four) and Trapped, a doc about abortion rights in America, on one.

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20 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Zookladya”

  1. movieman says:

    Continued evidence that Film Culture is dead in America.

    Those opening day figures for “Knight of Cups” and “Cemetery of Splendor.”

    So sad.

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    Translated in descending order. That aside, Movie, let it fucking go.

  3. movieman says:

    Don’t get your panties in a bunch, Partisan.
    Another comic book movie opens in three weeks.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Since when has Terrence Malick ever been a factor at the box office? And I find his movies fucking boring. A master craftsman of pretentious bullshit.

  5. jepressman says:

    The notion that Malick makes films that are soul stirring,intellectual achievements has always been wrong.

  6. movieman says:

    Malick has been an undisputed master of the medium since his first film in 1973.
    Attention must be paid.
    Some people said the same thing about Antonioni, Resnais, Bergman, Fellini, et al back in the ’60s, Bulldog., But arthouse mavens–and they were legion back then–awaited their latest films the way Millennial fanboys salivate in anticipation of the next Marvel or “Star Wars.”
    And Malick movies usually perform significantly better in platform release than the opening day figure for “Knight” would suggest. (“To the Wonder” was something of an outlier because Magnolia stupidly made it a VOD D&D w/ theatrical.)

  7. Bulldog68 says:

    Malick has never put one character on the screen that I have ever felt a connection to. The supposed angst and emotional trauma that these characters feel have always felt flat, forced, and like an excerpt from an acting class video. Someone always seem to be whispering to the actors “act with your eyes, act with your eyes.”

    His films are so full of self importance that he has to do cutaways to visually powerful stock footage to add artificial weight and gravity to the scene.

    I guarantee his next film will star Ryan Reynolds, and it’ll be about why him stubbing his toe is connected to his grandfather owning slaves and the extinction of the dinosaurs.

  8. Ray Pride says:

    Another factor here is its pirating after an ill-advised early release on Swiss iTunes.

  9. js partisan says:

    Yes, movie, that’s all I care about! Sure! I HAVE NO LOVE OF MID-LEVEL PROGRAMMERS! NO LOVE AT ALL!

  10. Greg says:

    I don’t understand 6 months of articles about the Oscars here, but only a BYOB afterwards?

  11. Hcat says:

    So foxtrot is a bit of a shame, both in the execution of the material and execution at the box office. I know it’s true for comedies across the board but for someone who is liked for more intellectual humor it’s strange that audiences only come out to see Fey in the broadest of roles.

  12. Hallick says:

    “I don’t understand 6 months of articles about the Oscars here, but only a BYOB afterwards?”

    We have a “love ’em and leave ’em” policy in these parts when it comes to that stuff, Greg. The possibilities of the Oscars are far more interesting to David than the concrete reality once they’ve been given out.

  13. leahnz says:

    oh i killed that post-coital oscar byob thread good and dead apparently. die fucker die! (maybe i’ll deep-six this one too – box office thread tho, less likely)

    my theory on malick is that his mojo as a screenwriter is on the fritz – or perhaps simply fading as sometimes happens over the years and long careers.
    his eye for exquisite imagery is in tact but his stories and characters post-‘new world’ seem to be gradually losing any edge and vitality to the point of amorphous blob-hood now with ‘to the wonder’ and ‘cups’, rather bloodless wonders. it’s weird to contemplate that the writer/director who took us on holly & kit’s gut-wrenching ride back in the day then on through his particular style of earthy, meandering, delicate ‘human folly against the grand backdrop of nature’ headtrips is the same one responsible for turgid cupcakes like ‘wonder’ and ‘cups’ — but having said that a world with malick doing what he does, what ever that is, is far more interesting than one without it, so i’m not complaining so much as musing and yearning for the malick of yore i guess. (i wonder if doing another adaptation might get him back on the horse with a bit more verve and philosophical friction in his writing, he seems caught on the surface of the reflecting pond or something instead of diving in)

  14. cadavra says:

    Malick was always a shit writer. The one truly watchable movie he made is also the only one that was not an original screenplay (THIN RED LINE). The rest are just pretty pictures with nothing going on. Like Cameron and Lucas, he needs to lock the typewriter in the closet and let others do the paperwork.

  15. YancySkancy says:

    Badlands is one of the great American films. and certainly one of the greatest debut films. Days of Heaven was okay. I didn’t care for The Thin Red Line, but maybe I should revisit. After that one, I lost interest. The only thing I’ve seen since is To the Wonder, which to my surprise I actually liked quite a bit. I’m sure I’ll get around to the others at some point, but yeah, it would be nice if he could get as inspired by a good story idea again as he does these more philosophical, spiritual, whatever notions.

  16. PcChongor says:

    Anyone who thinks Malick is a shitty writer needs to watch “The Gravy Train” and then promptly go fuck themselves.

    That being said, his post “Tree of Life” output has been more than a little disappointing. Chivo is single-handedly holding up his career.

  17. palmtree says:

    The opening of The New World paired with Wagner’s Rhinegold was pretty inspired.

  18. brack says:

    I love the trailer for Knight of Cups. Looks interesting.

  19. leahnz says:

    re flicks concerning ‘self-centred angst-ridden lollygagging hollywood dudes looking for meaning and connection in their superficial lives in a meandering, plot-less, visually pleasant LA narrative’ i liked ‘knight of cups’ better when it was called ‘somewhere’ by coppola. malik’s version (apart from the blanchette segment) is a bit insufferable

  20. cadavra says:

    GRAVY TRAIN wasn’t a bad film, but the presence of Bill Kerby in first position in the credits suggests that he did a lot of rewriting of Malick’s original draft(s). I’ll happily fuck myself, but it won’t change the fact that Malick is a shitty writer.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

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