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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady v Klady: Dawn Of Box Office

Weekend Estimatest 2016-04-03 at 9.47.15 AM

6th fastest to $100m. 7th fastest to $150m. 11th fastest to $200m. 11th fastest to $250m.

See the trend line?

And still, not shocking numbers for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in any way. Klady estimates a 69% drop… not remotely shocking for an opening as massive as the one this film had last weekend, including Thursday, which is why historical comparisons of % drops from any film over 5 years are completely meaningless. Yes, it is 5% – 8% higher than WB would have wanted. But it’s really not a huge drama. Especially since WB did, indeed, turn the corner internationally. Yes, China fell off, but the film has already blown past Man of Steel internationally and though it is not likely to catch up to The Dark Knight Rises, it will be the #2 DC film internationally.

Context… again… mediocre numbers, given the significance of the film for the DC franchise moving forward. No disaster. No mandate.

Zootopia is not going to topple Frozen, but for Walt Disney Animation, it’s going to be a strong #2, passing $800m worldwide this weekend and perhaps passing $900m all in.

God’s Not Dead 2 fell of its competitive-with-the-original opening over the weekend, but still, a solid opening that should have matched expectations of the producers. Miracles From Heaven is a bit in its way, which will probably cost it $20m or more. Risen is still hanging on with $36.5m in the bank. Competing for that Easter money is brutal!

This is that time of year when the Top 11 includes Pure Flix, Bleeker Street, Freestyle, and Roadside. All solid businesses, but ranking higher in the horse race through soft studio releasing.

By the way… The Lady In The Van is quietly creeping up on $10 million domestic for Sony Classics.

Miles Ahead wins the Best Per-Screen war this weekend with $29,829 per on 4. The first $120k is the easiest.

Four-walled Vaxxed, the lunatic fringe film that got escorted out of the Tribeca rally with DeNiro getting sucker punched on the way out, did #24.5k on 1 screen. 2000 more misinformed people in Manhattan.

Everybody Wants Some!! did decent per-screen business on 19 for a film with a national campaign. The film deserves better than it is likely to get… but is also very much a niche film.

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14 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady v Klady: Dawn Of Box Office”

  1. Eric says:

    Audiences have presumably rejected Batman vs Superman for not being dark and gritty enough.

  2. Movieman says:

    The Linklater opening is even worse than I feared.
    Was it naive of me to think that it might post the same type of “exclusive” numbers as an Anderson (Wes or P.T.) movie?
    Really nervous that Paramount may cut back on the # of screens they were planning to add in the coming weeks.

  3. Sideshow Bill says:

    I finally saw BVS and liked it enough. It’s a mess but I kind of concur with JSP on most points. Not going to bother giving review. It’s had enough.

    But something occurred to me, and this may be a really stupid thing but I’ll ask: would this have done better, at least with audiences, if it had been titled BATMAN & SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE?

    The point is that VS sets up expectations the film didn’t really meet. It more about Batman and Superman meeting, and the beginning of Justice league. Whether it’s successful at even THAT is questionable to many, I know. And even with a different title critics would still have problems with the filmmaking, writing, performances, structure, etc.

    But would audiences have been happier had they been marketed the film that is there rather than is only there for about 15 minutes?

    Titles are important. Maybe I’m stupid but it’s a thought I had.

  4. Movielocke says:

    We rewatched dazed and confused last year and the fetishized celebration of hazing and bullying was our least favorite part of the film. When we saw the trailer, my wife said, “that looks like an entire movie of everything I hated about dazed and confused.”

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    Gotta say, while I liked Zootopia enough, those holds are insane. It just had the 7th biggest 5th weekend gross of all time, beating even Jurassic World. To be at a $20m 5th weekend with a solid but not blockbuster opening is quite a feat.

  6. Dr Wally Rises says:

    It’s going under the radar a little bit, but 10 Cloverfield Lane is also holding like a champ. Considering that it’s a genre exercise and a (kinda) sequel to an almost decade-old movie, a final total of between $80-90 million is a big success and will probably extend the Cloverfield ‘brand’ to further entries, maybe even a modern Twilight Zone anthology TV series.

    As for Zootopia, it’s nothing but good news, but it will be interesting to see how it gets affected by Jungle Book in two weeks. We may now have reached the tipping point in blockbuster family entertainment that sees Disney effectively now only competing with itself. I think Jungle Book is going to be huge personally – they even got a stinker like Maleficent to around $250 million domestic, and Jungle Book not only looks really good, but has broader gender and age appeal.

  7. Geoff says:

    Bulldog, that’s the Disney marketing machine in full swing – they romance the critics and movie pundits at events like D23 to get them jazzed about their properties, then screen them early at lavish premieres, then plaster the film’s name on even open space they can find on all of their other holdings including ESPN, Disney Channel, and ABC. I have no doubt that Zootopia is a good movie or that audiences genuinely enjoy the film but as with ‘Guardians and even The Force Awakens to some extent, this is a machine that KNOWS who to squeeze every last dollar out of a property. Far more effective than any other studio out there….though Universal is getting better and better.

  8. John E. says:

    Eye in the Sky felt like Fail-Safe, with slightly lower stakes. But Alan Rickman’s final line was pretty cool.

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    Geoff I agree that Disney does marketing better than everyone else in the biz, but $300m+ for a complete unknown property is still insane numbers. And these kind of legs becomes less about the marketing and more about people actually liking the movie. This did not have an insanely big opening.

    Among movies that opened between $70m-$80m only Avatar, LoTR-RotK and Finding Nemo may have better legs, and all three were released during busy holiday seasons. Zootopia has a good shot of outgrossing Nemo’s $339m as well.

    I don’t think even Disney expected this as already mentioned, they will compete with themselves in two weeks with Jungle Book which will definitely rob Zootopia of a few dollars extra to claim bragging rights on the all time domestic list.

    With Disney owning Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars, all these reimaginations and their own animated movies now doing blockbuster numbers, they are virtually unstoppable. I should have bought stock.

  10. brack says:

    A $75m domestic opening for a March lease is pretty insane to me. Movies opening $100m+ still seems insane to me, but I guess I’m an old fuddy duddy. I’m sure this more than makes up the shortcomings of The Good Dinosaur, which I still think was dumped on purpose. A 99% fresh rating for Zoo wasn’t a fluke. Still haven’t seen it, but plan to soon.

  11. Triple Option says:

    Miles will likely be the next movie I see. The Linkletter film trailer looked so blah at best. There’s still plenty to do from the 80s that it’s nearly surprising that a premise wouldn’t have more to a hook to it.

  12. Popcorn Slayer says:

    “We rewatched dazed and confused last year and the fetishized celebration of hazing and bullying was our least favorite part of the film. When we saw the trailer, my wife said, “that looks like an entire movie of everything I hated about dazed and confused.”

    I know these things are subjective, but I simply don’t understand how anybody could watch D & C and think it celebrated hazing and bullying. It’s like saying SCHINDLER’S LIST celebrated concentration camps.

  13. Pete B says:

    Finally got to see The Witch as part of its 666 theater re-release. Good atmospheric period film. It seems like the marketing did it a disservice as the trailers gave key points away (especially the re-release trailer), and the movie poster foreshadowed the ending.

  14. Bulldog68 says:

    The Witch barely registered with me. Agree with the atmosphere and the acting was well done, but I was bored. That’s my simple review.

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3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
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