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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by InDoryBrexit Day Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-06-25 at 9.28.40 AM

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14 Responses to “Friday Estimates by InDoryBrexit Day Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Can’t remember such a negative blockbuster audience reaction than to ID42. The movie is confrontational in its badness…prolonged booing in a multiplex, but my personal favorite was the collective UGH of disgust at seeing Brent Spiner scratch his bare ass.

    Tom Rothman’s quote in the sidebar is certainly apt.

    Glad to see HUNT FOR THE WILDERPEOPLE doing decently well (huzzah Leah!). Quite a major contrast for no-budget products by next year’s MCU directors in back-to-back weeks (CLOWN’s Jon Watts is doing Spiderman: Homecoming).

  2. Geoff says:

    Yeah so it’s Disney’s year apparently – every other studio seems to be underperforming with its slate except for WB and Sony who are doing just OK.

  3. Dr Wally Rises says:

    I was on record here saying that IDR would be ‘a lock billion dollar grosser even if it makes the first movie look like Kubrick’. Well, it does make the first film look like Kubrick, and it’s not a billion dollar grosser. Consider my bowl of crow duly eaten. Not since Keanu Reeves bailed on Speed 2 has an actor enhanced their reputation by not being in a movie like Will Smith here. After a reasonably promising first act (the scenes with Goldblum investigating the craft in Africa and Pullman’s president experiencing visions of the spherical craft are a nice (and surely deliberate) echo of Truffaut and Dreyfuss in Close Encounters), the movie turns farcical real fast. Charlotte Gainsbourg and the great Maika Monroe deserve better. Save us from this dire Summer, Spielberg and Greengrass, please.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    Props Wally. I think you made that prediction after I’d asked whether Disney would lock up the Top 5 worldwide slots at the BO this year. That seems fairly likely now. SECRET PETS could be the best animated film of all-time but would struggle to get to $950 million against the DORY behemoth. The most likely breakout between now and the Fall (worldwide) is….PETES DRAGON I think. Beyond that it’s FANTASTIC BEASTS and maybe TROLLS. Hail Master Mouse!

  5. Stella's Boy says:

    High art it is not, but I mostly enjoyed The Shallows. As someone who gets all squirmy and anxious any time a camera plunges below water or hovers right at the water line (and has a paralyzing fear of sharks), it gave me some good thrills. There’s a few exciting set pieces, the scenery is great, and Jaume Collett-Serra knows his way around a B-movie. It’s also refreshing to watch something that clocks in at less than 90 minutes. It’s not great, but I had fun with it.

  6. palmtree says:

    The Shallows trailer was awesome and promised a good time. It sounds like the movie delivers on it.

  7. Amblinman says:

    I had a different experience with Shallows. That script needed to be much smarter than it is. Too many pure dumb moments in a movie that needed to be tight. Speaking of which, even at 87 minutes it drags. Not a good sign. Finally, I think the director made a mistake fetishizing Lively’s ass. Wardrobe choice of a tiny bikini bottom is actually distracting. She’s a gorgeous woman with a great body. No need to continually underline and bold the point.

  8. Movieman says:

    I liked “The Shallows” OK (and Blake Lively is worth seeing in anything), but I’m a little stunned that it’s gotten better reviews than “Free State of Jones.”
    However imperfect “Jones” is (and I actually think Gary Ross did more things right than wrong: e.g., no distracting Movie Star cameos like Brad Pitt in “12 Yrs. A Slave”), it’s a laudably ambitious, medium-budget adult drama. Precisely the type of H’wood movie crix always bemoan a dearth of. And when one comes around, they nit-nit-nitpick it to death.
    Also really liked McConaughey’s performance which is admirably sober and bereft of the winking-to-the-audience, “alright, alright, alright”-isms he’s prone to.
    Et- I wouldn’t write “Pets” off just yet. I think it has the potential to be a breakout hit next month (at which point “Dory” will have safely banked $400-million domestic). Despite some wheel-spinning in the third act–it should have been 15-minutes shorter–I thought it was the most consistently enjoyable Illumination ‘toon to date. Even if it reminded me of a kid-friendly version of HBO’s “Animals” (not a knock).
    P.S.= If I didn’t know better–different studios; way different demographics–I might’ve thought one extended “Pets” sequence was a teaser for Seth Rogen’s upcoming “Sausage Party.” Funny stuff.

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    How the hell did Charlotte Gainsbourg end up in ID4:R? That’s a long way from Nymphomaniac (which she was amazing in). Hope she got a nice paycheck.

    Saw Dory with my daughters on Thursday. It was fine. Never a big fan of the first one. But it was a charming 90 minutes. The short film Piper was amazing. Those grains of sand!

    The only 2 movies I wanna see this weekend are Neon Demon and Wilderpeople. Neither are near me. I love Refn. I’m one of the 3 people that liked Only God Forgives. And after What We Do In The Shadows I’d follow Taika Waititi anywhere. His Thor movie should be something special.

  10. Movieman says:

    The b.o. prognosticator (Variety?) who predicted “ID4: R” would tank because audiences wowed by the F/X orgy of destruction in 1996 have grown blasé about CGI bombast pretty much hit the nail on the head. Since every Marvel comic book movie ends w/ the destruction of at least one major city, that sort of thing has become so commonplace it hardly rates as special, or even particularly interesting anymore.
    Deja vu equals diminishing returns.

  11. Geoff says:

    I’m right there with you Wally, I thought IDR was not only going to be a billion dollar grosser but had a strong shot at highest grosser of the summer…. definitely shocked by this opening, thought $100 million was a likelihood, I mean 2012 opened to over $70M seven years ago and that film was shit! 🙂

  12. EtGuild2 says:

    Movieman, I haven’t seen it, but I have two friends who have with one insisting it’s the best animated mainstream movie of the decade, and the other saying it’s the most obnoxious rip-off since “The Wild.” I think it’ll do decent coin, so I’m not dismissing it, but I don’t think it’ll top DESPICABLE ME 2 which it’d have to do to knock off TJB (I’m assuming ROGUE ONE and DORY clear a billion).

  13. Hcat says:

    I saw Dory this week with the kids and hated it. I avoided Cars 2 and Good Dino so far so this bottoms out the list of Pixar movies. What a terrible cash grab from a wonderful source. I loved every last bit of Nemo and this was like a class reunion of people you never stayed in touch with. A bit of recognition but no lasting joy. Hey there’s the turtles, hey there’s the stingray, and they contribute nothing other than familiarity. The massive task of crossing the ocean is achieved in the first reel leaving Dory to travel from puddle to puddle never finding her family. Marlin’s trust and doubt problems reminded me of Arthur 2 on the rocks, having his issues in the first movie made sense, but he was supposed to be emotionally healed by the end, bringing them back for the sequel just makes him a jerk.

    All the press that has been written on people rejecting naked cash grab sequels this summer is sort of undercut by them embracing this film whose only reason for existence is to place impressions of Baby Dory on Onesies sold at Target.

    At this point I am actively rooting for Tarzan to come from nowhere and sweep the summer.

  14. Stella's Boy says:

    Yes The Shallows has dumb moments, but I wasn’t expecting a documentary about sharks. They aren’t so egregious that I couldn’t sit back and enjoy it as solid summer entertainment. Found it much easier to just sit back and enjoy than most of what I’ve seen this summer. Not nearly as pretentious as The Conjuring 2 or Civil War.

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