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Friday Estimates by Is It Still Summer? Klady


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46 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Is It Still Summer? Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Good question. If there really is sequelitis, Conjuring 2 will be a good guage. It’s def a strange summer given that a large segment of analysts and commenters consider every major studio release this summer a failure or disappointment aside from ME BEFORE YOU…wtf?

    Outright failures:

    Alice 2

    Undeniable Disappointments:

    Neighbors 2
    The Nice Guys
    The Angry Birds ($115 million is not what they wanted)

    Faux “Disappointments”:

    Cap 3
    Money Monster

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    The Darkness isn’t a disappointment? It’s only made $10 million. P&A alone cost way more than that. It’s at least an undeniable disappointment. Otherwise I can’t argue much with your rankings. I’m a little ambivalent about $37 million for Money Monster. I didn’t expect $100 million, but what’s a reasonable expectation for a George Clooney/Julia Roberts thriller in 2016? Less than $40 million seems awfully close to disappointing.

    I saw The Lobster yesterday. Not sure what to make of it. I loved the first hour. Laughed out loud more than I expected to. Cast is exceptional. So many wonderfully weird moments (the skits and the wolf story). Second hour kind of lost me though. Not as compelling and a little slow. Still, glad I saw it. Probably warrants another viewing.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah didn’t mean to include THE DARKNESS so I removed it, because it’s not a major studio release anyway. And I totally agree, but I keep hearing that $10 million is exactly what they wanted which seems ridiculous. MONEY MONSTER will make $40 million….barely.

  4. Nick says:

    Here’s a thought: movies are losing importance. Everything is the same now. No urgency to seeing anything. Just a thought.

  5. Movieman says:

    Do you think this will mean less unnecessary sequels in the future?
    Nah, too much to hope for.
    They’ll keep doing what they’re doing, and hope at least a few of them stick to the wall. And they always do.
    All it takes is one massive sequel (“Finding Dory”?) to perpetuate the cycle.

  6. Geoff says:

    Etguild, Angry Birds is likely to end up near $400M WW on a $70M budget – hard to call more than 5 times its budget a true disappointment. Sony probably was hoping for a bit more but it’s going to be right in their Cloudy/Transylvania wheelhouse.

    And speaking of “not what they wanted” I KNOW this is beating a very dead horse from a few weeks back but objectively….you can’t tell me that Disney/Marvel was expecting to make less than Iron Man 3 domestically AND worldwide with that line up. I’ve had issues with the movie and the fanboy hype machine for it, but I’m pretty shocked that Civil War has faded as quickly as it has, ESPECIALLY overseas…..maybe it IS the release patterns of this genre and even the acclaimed ones are burning out faster…..or too much competition, Disney launched it overseas right on the heels of Jungle Book.

    I think the big test will be a year from now – if ‘Guardians 2 breaks a billion WW only armed with Stallone/Russell stunt-casting and NO other big Marvel characters, then everything you will have said about the long-term health of the MCU franchise will be correct. That would be the first time they break a billion without Downey/Iron Man which would be HUGE…also freeing them from not having to lay out nine figures to him on a yearly basis to keep the franchise going.

  7. Peter says:

    Other than Finding Dory this is going to be a brutal summer at the box office. There’s just no hype around anything, really, even usually surefire properties like Star Trek. Not that I think it will change the behavior of the studios any, since studios are so invested now for the next 2/3 years in their IP features, but at some point ,there has to be a reevaluation of the model, and maybe the pendulum will swing back at the very least to doing a few projects that seem original.I mean, The Shallows looks ridiculous, but its getting some early buzz and at least its an original, modestly budgeted, project, and if it does well, that might advance the “original” concept argument.

  8. bodhizefa says:

    Is Captain America 3 going to make less domestically than Jungle Book? That’s a bit mind-blowing to me if so.

    Re: “Movies are losing importance” — Well, yeah, they absolutely are. At least as far as seeing them in theaters is concerned. There’s new, good content available at home all the time and home theaters are better every year.

    Theatrical these days reminds me of the old baseball stadiums in the 70’s and 80’s before the new stadium craze began in Baltimore in the early 90’s. Those old stadiums were built to take on as many occupants as possible, had very little personality or intrigue, and were generally uncomfortable. New stadiums started being built and they had fewer seats, better food, and more stuff to entertain people of all ages.

    Modern theaters are much the same as the old baseball stadiums as they’re built to accommodate huge herds of people with little thought to anything other than getting them in and out. Whether theater owners need to find a new craze (3D is supplemental income at best) or change their approach entirely to a model that’s more customer-oriented (like the Alamo Drafthouse), I don’t know. But I do know that modern theaters are probably on their last 10-15 years or so of sustainability in the current model. I’d wager that Carmike saw the potential downfall of their super cheap model and wanted out while the stock was still high.

    I don’t know if the Alamo Drafthouse is the theater equivalent to Camden Yards, but if I was a theater chain, I’d be taking a long look at my model and wondering if it’s time to upgrade.

    Just my 72 cents.

  9. Gustavo says:

    “Is Captain America 3 going to make less domestically than Jungle Book? That’s a bit mind-blowing to me if so.”

    Captain American 3 is at 383 million as of yesterday; TJB is at 344 million. Captain is still grossing more, so it will be impossible for TJB to surpass it.

    The above chart is wrong.

  10. bodhizefa says:

    Thanks, Gustavo. I haven’t had my head in the game for a few weeks due to work and moving, so the numbers above were shocking to me. Thank you for the clarification!

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Geoff–Angry Birds will finish with $325 million at most (it rolled internationally in most places a week before here with only Japan and Italy to go). Big difference there. Not saying that’s not profitable still, but it’s also $150 million less than RIO. Aka, the most popular mobile game of all-time fell far short of a concept derived from the surreal dream of a 20-something film school grad while he was working on commercials for Pop Tarts. That is disappointing no matter how you slice it. It’s also well behind OVER THE HEDGE in profitability, which was considered a minor disappointment ten years ago.

    I don’t want to get into this Marvel thing again, but there’s no indication CAP falls more than a million or two away from IM3 in either direction. And again, yes, a movie fronted by the embodiment of American Jingoism wasn’t expected to be the #3 superhero movie of all-time internationally. Also: dollar exchange rates. The dollar is a lot stronger than it was 3 years ago. It may well top IM3 at current exchange rates.

  12. bodhizefa says:

    ETGuild, the chart has Cap 3 at $283 million and Jungle Book at $343 million. My math skills are pretty good, thanks 😉

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    Haha yeah I caught it after I typed, my bad. It does have a shot to catch DEADPOOL though, and will pass FURIOUS 7 as the #2 April release sometime in the next week or so. $1 billion comes down to those cray-cray Japanese and their fickle love for anthropomorphism.

  14. JS Partisan says:

    I, basically, watch a movie everyday. I have been doing that for years, but guess what? FUCK WATCHING SHIT AT HOME. 4k? Ultra HD? It’s still the fucking same experience, as watching shit on a 20″ TV in 1990. Hell. It’s the same, as watching ANH on Betmax in the early 80s, on a cabinet TV. The only experience that is different, is watching shit in a theatre. There’s magic to that experience, even if you get caught with annoying assholes like our old buddy Lex did, from time to time.

    The only problem with the theatrical experience is… there is none. Especially, if you fucking love movies. Some people love them, like them, but like staying at home, and saving a buck. A nice, stadium seated theater with some nachos, isn’t for everybody, and kids do jack up the price of everything. This happens with everything involving kids.

    Now, if you believe movies are losing their importance, then you must ignore how movies, are responsible for much of the content you find online. It all revolves around what movies are being made, what actors are going to star in them, and trailer reactions. That’s importance, but let’s just go over Ethan’s list real quick.

    Outright failures:

    Alice 2 – tainted star, and a sequel NO ONE WANTED! I enjoyed the first Alice, but that should have been that. Disney were hoping for something, and they got a bag of dicks. It happens, but we all knew this movie was going no where the moment Disney announced it.

    Undeniable Disappointments:

    Xmen – It followed Civil War and Deadpool, and all of it’s promotional materials turned people off. No one wants to sit through IVAN OOZE TWO: MUTANT BUGGALOO!


    Neighbors 2 – Another sequel that no one wanted, but was seemingly made anyway, for contractual reasons? Is this like a Bob Seager record from the 80s, that needed to happen, so he could get even with Columbia? Are Evan and Seth, free from Universal now?

    Popstar – This should have been a Netflix movie. No one has ever looked at Andy Sandberg, outside of SNL people, and thought he could be a movie star. The movie apparently doesn’t have the stink, but it screams something Netflix should have bought. If people didn’t get behind WALK HARD! Why would people want to see a movie, where a bunch of kids from the burbs are rappers, and there is your cultural appropriation for the day! Also, this current generation and younger, aren’t exactly the biggest fans of parody.


    The Angry Birds ($115 million is not what they wanted) – They should be happy to get whatever the fuck they got from a movie, for a game, that is FIVE GOD DAMN YEARS OLD!

    Faux “Disappointments”:

    Cap 3 – This should hopefully shush Geoff:

    First Avenger: $370,569,774
    Winter Soldier: $714,421,503
    Civil War: $1,116,538,157


    Also, Geoff, no one is going to see Guardians 2, because of Kurt Russell or Stallone. Until that abhorrent fucking Sniper movie came out. Guardians was the biggest film of that year. Much like Cap, the Guardians are going to join the billion dollar club. If Episode VIII wasn’t being released next year. I’d wager, that Guardians would be the biggest film of 2017.

    Finally, Money Monster: A NETFLIX MOVIE, that should have been PUT ON NETFLIX! You know where these fucking middle of the road, in terms of expense, movies should go? FUCKING NETFLIX, AMAZON, and CRACKLE! You know CRACKLE? They did Joe Dirt 2, because the world needed a JOE DIRT FUCKING 2!

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah, this TMNT is a lot more appealing. It still isn’t good, but it’s not terrible. They even did Krang, Bebop, and Rocksteady pretty well. Weird marketing…Krang is actually pretty gross and I feel like they waited too long/mis-targeted/underplayed the reveal.

    Only disagreement is MONEY MONSTER. Besides the fact Cloones and Roberts probably wouldn’t have done it, Netflix hasn’t really released movie stuff for an over-40 audience unless it’s really low-brow for a reason I assume. WAR MACHINE is going to be a very interesting test, though of course the only way we’ll know if it does well or not is whether Netflix attempts something like it again.

    Also, Rogen and Goldberg were talking about NEIGHBORS 2 back when the first one came out. Seems like something they really wanted to do, God knows why.

  16. JS Partisan says:

    Money Monster could have gone on Amazon. We here, on these box office blogs, are always discussing the dearth of mid level films. Streaming, at least for now, could be the place for them.

    That aside, they really had some faith in Neighbors being something for them. That’s trippy, but I wonder where those guys go from here? Do they just fuck up one comic book property on TV, or do they go for two?

  17. EtGuild2 says:

    Rogen has a lot on his plate. He’s alternating between personal passions like PREACHER, CONSOLE WARS(hey I like Preacher!) & SAUSAGE PARTY, being drawn into weird bullshit with James Franco like ZEROVILLE & THE MASTERPIECE, and still doing the occasional mainstream movie like THE SOMETHING. Goldberg is involved in a lot of those.

    It’s too soon to tell how this will affect his career, but in terms of the notorious “second acts” of comedians, it’s a hell of a lot more interesting than Murphy, Sandler, Ferrell, Robin Williams and even Jim Carrey.

  18. Bulldog68 says:

    Completely unrelated but in an episode of The Flash which I just finished the first season of, Mark Hamill says to another character, “I am your father.” Was quite a surreal moment.

  19. Geoff says:

    How’s that going to “shush” me JPartisan?? Come on man, you’re smarter than this and so is Etguild – Civil War is NOT a Captain America movies, it’s an AVENGERS movie and there’s nothing unreasonable comparing it to other Avengers movies. And when did THIS version of Captain America in these movies become widely associated with jingoism? It was probably a concern back in 2011 when they even re-titled the film, “The First Avenger” in most foreign markets but not really since then…..honestly, do any of the MCU movies featuring this character or even the character himself seem even the slightest bit jingoistic “Ra Ra America” enough to put off any foreign audiences at this point?? 🙂 I don’t see how that’s any kind of qualifier to put on the success of these films, that’s just absurd – hell in these last two movies, the character has come off as pretty unpatriotic and in the second film, he helps level a skyscraper and three helicarriers in our nation’s capital…..sorry man, but NOBODY is associating this character with Pro-American propaganda at this point.

    As for all of this talk about sequel fatigue as always, it’s always situational:

    – Going back 25 plus years to Caddyshack II or Ghostbusters 2, comedy sequels have ALWAYS been hit-or-miss – being able to bring back the entire cast, releasing it within that two year window, and keeping the budget the same….Neighbors 2 wasn’t a bad bet to make and nobody could fault Universal for taking that bet.

    – Fox could have made much more on a new X-Men if they timed the release a lot better.

    – Launching a tentpole-sized sequel to Alice in Wonderland all of these years later was just a plainly shitty idea. But just catching 2010 on cable right now, I’m reminded that waiting several years to launch a sequel that NOBODY was asking for is not a new trend either.

    This has been going on since the ’70’s and it’s not going to change – sequels are always a decent bet based on several different factors:

    – how many years since the last one
    – keeping the budget reasonable compared to the last one
    – NOT launching it in the wake of too many other similar movies
    – quitting while you’re ahead with the franchise.

    Warners made solid profit last year on Magic Mike XXL as Universal will with Neighbors 2 – both films cost less than $35 million and will clear $100 million worldwide – but if both studios are SMART, they will end it with these installments.

  20. EtGuild2 says:

    So tired of this…you don’t seem to grasp that people overseas and peripheral moviegoers don’t know or care about the multi-tiered meaning of a comic-book character based on one trailer after 70 years of perception. It’s sweet I suppose, but daddy just wants to rest. So I’ll just leave it here: if it were 2013, according to the WDI, CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR would bet at around $900 million overseas, based on the overall strengthening of the dollar and current exchange rates. Disney is enraged over the fact we’re not in the midst a global recession I’m sure, because it means they can’t top IM3 which was their goal in making the movie, and now it was all for nought.

  21. Pete B. says:

    “The only problem with the theatrical experience is… there is none.”

    1.) Screaming babies/kids
    2.) Anyone with their cellphone out
    3.) People who talk to the screen
    4.) The guy who puts his feet up on the back of your seat
    5.) Getting stuck next to a 3 pack-a-day smoker

    Yep, no reason to stay at home at all.

  22. Movieman says:

    Pete- Don’t forget my favorite part of the “theatrical experience:”
    the excruciating litany of commercials/trailers before the actual movie.
    They help put me in a bad mood even before, say, “Dawn of Justice” begins.
    I don’t even watch commercials at home (thank you, DVR), so being force-fed an endless procession in a theater feels like the ultimate punishment.

  23. Amblinman says:

    Movieman hits on a great point that people don’t often bring up. Going to the movies is now a pretty significant commitment of time. Just about every movie is two plus hours now. Regardless of subject, filmmakers cannot help themselves and studios won’t say no. So there’s that. Tack on another usually 20 minutes of commercials and trailers and suddenly trying to catch a quick movie feels like a slog.

    JS, I don’t agree with Geoff that Cap 3 is a disappointment, but this:

    “First Avenger: $370,569,774
    Winter Soldier: $714,421,503
    Civil War: $1,116,538,157”

    Sooooo disingenuous and you know it. But sure, Thor or Hulk wasn’t in it so it can’t possibly be considered a really real Avengers movie. 😉

  24. leahnz says:

    but people have always been obnoxious, pete’s 1-5 has always applied to the cinema experience, except for 2 (and movieman’s pooh-poohing of the ads/trailers beforehand, that’s a point, way out of control, like 20mins long sometimes here fts) it can’t really be that though, ads in the lead up and phones/texting, it’s more than that, it’s as if there’s another big factor degrading the cinema experience, i can’t imagine what that could be…(oh yeah i can: it’s not the cinemas it’s what’s playing inside that kinda blows, that’s why the guy’s knee in your back is super annoying and the lady’s creaky chair drives you nuts and the blue square off in your peripheral vision is like a fish lure and the loud whisperers in front sound like they have a portable amplifier and you hear every crinkle of some guy’s pineapple lumps packet, getting swept up in a good movie makes all that shit go away)

    and also, kind of chicken-and-eggy but i think people are quieter in good movies too so it could be both

  25. Stella's Boy says:

    First world problems y’all. There are annoyances to be sure (two old ladies talked for two hours straight when I saw The Nice Guys opening day), but I still much prefer the theatrical experience for most movies. Weekday matinees are the best time to go. There’s hardly anyone else there and sometimes it’s even a private screening. I hardly ever go on weekends anymore save for Friday mornings when I really want to see something opening day. It makes a huge difference. There were four people in the theater on Friday morning when I saw The Lobster. It was wonderful. Plus there’s deals on weekdays like $5 Tuesdays that includes a free popcorn. So while I didn’t like it I paid $5 to see Civil War on an Ultra Screen, and the theater was nearly empty. I don’t like all the commercials but like seeing trailers so I try to show up at the exact start time listed because that’s when the trailers start. Reserved seating means not worrying about where I’ll sit.

  26. Movieman says:

    I love it when I try to outsmart them by showing up 15 minutes after the listed “start” time, hoping to avoid having to watch the trailers for “The Legend of Tarzan” and “Ghostbusters” for the 37th time, only to discover that the actual MOVIE has already started because someone screwed up and skipped the commercial/trailer loop.
    (And no, I don’t stay and watch the rest of the movie. I get a refund and drive home.)

  27. Gustavo says:

    “Sooooo disingenuous and you know it. But sure, Thor or Hulk wasn’t in it so it can’t possibly be considered a really real Avengers movie. ”

    Ok, let’s pretend, just for the sake of argument, that a film titled Captain America: Civil War is actually Avengers 2.5 in disguise:

    Marvel’s The Avengers $1,519.6 WW
    Avengers: Age of Ultron $1,405.4 WW
    Captain America: Civil War $1,116.5 WW (still counting)

    Now let’s hear from you and Geoff how being consistently above the 1.1 billion mark worldwide, consistently reaching 400 million domestically (which CW will do) and just slightly off the alleged previous installment is, in any way, shape or form, a “disappointment” for the studio.

  28. Stella's Boy says:

    Wow you sure go to the movies a lot if you’ve seen trailers 37 times. I wish I had that problem.

  29. Chucky says:

    Then again, trailers are often a good way to find out whether Hollywood is dumbing down movies for make benefit unwashed peoples of Murica.

  30. Movieman says:

    SB- Between seeing them online (which is invariably where one sees trailers first these days, TV) and a bit of exaggeration on my part, trust me, it definitely feels like 37 times.
    And if you’ve seen the “Warcraft,” “Conjuring 2” and “ID4 2” trailers as often as I have, doing anything humanly possible to avoid seeing them AGAIN feels like a humanitarian mission.

  31. Sideshow Bill says:

    I used to go to the movies almost every weekend, for almost 25-30 years (I’m 45). Then my wife died in 2013. She was my moviegoing partner. I now go maybe once a month, with one or both of my daughters.

    Now, that’s a very personal reason. Not everyone can relate to that. It’s just not the same for me. But another HUGE reason I don’t go so much is because the theatrical window is so very short. I saw 2 movies in February (The Witch and Deadpool) because I really wanted to see them. March I saw BVS. I really wanted to see 10 Cloverfield Lane and Brothers Grimsby but I skipped both and now a quick 2 1/2 3 months later I’m watching them both On Demand last night (and I liked both. Yes. I liked Brothers Grimsby lol).

    My youngest daughter and I will go out for every Marvel movie. It’s a bonding thing for us. Thor 2 was the first movie we saw after her mother died. She loves those movies. But even we skipped X-Men partly because of reviews and partly because we didn’t feel like blowing $40 right now on something we can see at home probably in September, which will be here faster than you know.

    Yes, the theater experience is great. But I also agree that a lot of it isn’t. I get a fine experience at home. I watch Fury Road on HBO yesterday and it still blew me away. The home experience may never fully match the theater experience (and we’ve all had great theater experiences we wouldn’t give up for the world). But it’s good enough that the deficiencies compensate for not having to tell college students behind me to shut up so I could watch The Witch.

    I’m also a guy that still buys physical media so there’s that too. Not everything but the stuff I love.

    So that’s my personal take. I’m sorry Pop Star flopped because it looks great but that just means I’ll see it at home a lot sooner and a lot cheaper than I would otherwise.

  32. EtGuild2 says:

    Chucky, I’ve wanted to ask you for years now…do you have a twitter handle?

  33. Fitz says:

    Bill, just want to say that I am very sorry to hear about your wife.

  34. JS Partisan says:

    Man and Geoff, nope.

  35. Stella's Boy says:

    Yeah I’ve seen certain trailers a lot since my moviegoing picked up in the last few weeks, but not to the point where I dread trailers. It’s a minor nuisance at most. And not to be an ageist dick (when I saw The Witch the mostly late-teen crowd only got loud after it ended) but in my experience the worst people are the 60-plus crowd. Weekday matinees are always cheap for them and they talk nonstop. They also don’t respond well to requests to stop talking. Still, with comfortable seats and more legroom than ever, plus good deals during the week, I find the theatrical experience still worth it more often than not. What’s changed for me is that I won’t go see anything. I used to want to see everything in theaters and now I’m fine with Redbox or HBO for certain movies.

  36. Geoff says:

    Etguild and JS, I concede – I concede ok?? Captain America: Civil War is beloved by all, it’s going to make more profit than any Avengers film, it’s mainly a Captain America sequel and has only been marketed that way, that Marvel/Disney really dodged a bullet by overcoming an overseas stigma against the character that was seemingly (but I’m mistaken in thinking that this) more relevant half a decade ago BEFORE the franchise was established, and that when comparing the success of different entries within a franchise, there is no stat MORE relevant than the U.S. dollar exchange rate with other currencies! Not overall ticket sales, not profitability, and CERTAINLY not the weekly percentage drops of any given installment. Oh and when a popular TV show sees a steady ratings decline after a few seasons, it’s beyond silly for any executives at that show’s network to have any concern. I miss anything guys!? 🙂 Don’t wanna pop that bubble…..

  37. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s just as irrational, obviously. Moderation, my friend…

  38. Sideshow Bill says:

    Thank you, Fitz. My wife was a huge supporter of cinema. She died while finishing her doctorate in Southern Lit. Didn’t quite made it. First movie we saw together was Schindler’s List (NOT our first date though thank god). The last was Captain Phillips. Then she got sick.

  39. Amblinman says:

    @Gustavo why no, I won’t explain why Cap 3 is a disappointment cause I never says that. I simply take umbrage at the notion that it’s been created or marketed as a standalone Cap movie. Call it Avengers 2.5, Avengers Lite, Captain America and his Amazing Friends, whatever. The movie and its marketing campaign were meant to suggest a huge Avengers-like event film. Is Geoff right about what it’s BO portends for the future, diminishing returns and such? Possibly. Cap 3 on its own terms is a gigantic success. No good argument against that.

  40. cadavra says:

    Speaking on behalf of my fellow baby boomers, who still prefer to see movies in theatres, as we did in our yoot, pictures like MONEY MONSTER absolutely should receive a theatrical release, because we deserve a grown-up movie once in a while. So there.

  41. Bulldog68 says:

    Civil War, Avengers 2.5, this could have also very easily been called Iron Man 4. Look at his story arc in this movie, I’d dare say it had more of an emotional and personal wallop than the Cap’s. We found out more about Iron Man and Bucky than we did about Cap.

  42. JS Partisan says:

    Of course we deserve grown up movies, but in GROWN UP MOVIE RELEASE DATES. These dates, should always be, from SEPTEMBER to DECEMBER! If you put Money Monster out in September. I guarandamntee, it makes more than it did with this release date.

    Dave, loved going on about niches back in the day, and guess what? That’s how the release schedule now works. January to March: YA/adult comedy/low rent kid fare. April to August: SUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMAH! September – October: Adult/Horror/low rent R-rated comedy/occasional family movie. November – December: holiday theme fared/kids movie/awards movie/Star Wars/Marvel/ and more adult movies. Sure. There are always crossovers for these months, but Money Monster screams SEPTEMBER to me, like Nice Guys screams early OCTOBER.

    Finally, IT’S A CAPTAIN AMERICA MOVIE! It’s not Avengers 2.5. It’s still a CAPTAIN AMERICA MOVIE! Why? Go watch the Avengers, then watch Winter Soldier. Go watch Ultron, then watch Civil War. If you cannot tell the difference between how the Avengers movies and the Cap movies work, then this is just a running shit into the ground argument. Captain America, has earned almost 400 million more with each additional installment. If you want to poo-poo this, then go right ahead. That’s pretty sensational growth, rather you like it, or not.

    One last thing, because I find this rather odd.

    Geoff wrote, “Oh and when a popular TV show sees a steady ratings decline after a few seasons, it’s beyond silly for any executives at that show’s network to have any concern. I miss anything guys!? 🙂 Don’t wanna pop that bubble…..”

    What bubble? You argument, your entire rant about this, ignores this isn’t going to end. If Doc Strange, only grosses 700 million, then guess what? Marvel is still putting out three movies next year, Warners are putting out two movies next year, and who the fuck knows what FOX will throw out there. Seriously, these movies aren’t over for another 3 years, and 5 or 6 years for the DCCU. If we go by what Kevin and Geoff probably want to do? These movies aren’t ending… for a long ass time.

    Even if Marvel makes less money with each film? Guess what? You are still getting THREE MARVEL MOVIES A YEAR TIL 2020! THREE! This means, that you can complain about diminishing returns for THREE MORE YEARS, AND NINE DAMN MOVIES!

    The point being: SCOREBOARD DON’T LIE! Guardians is going to be a billion dollar movie, Spider-man is going to be in the 700 to 800, and Thor will probably do the same or better. Again, where is the diminishing returns, Geoff? All I see with Civil War, is a movie that set up a great new Spider-man, an awesome Black Panther, and even more of a reason to check out Wasp and Ant-Man. All of that is money, that Marvel will not leave on the table.

  43. leahnz says:

    “Bill, just want to say that I am very sorry to hear about your wife.”

    same here

  44. Amblinman says:

    “Go watch the Avengers, then watch Winter Soldier. Go watch Ultron, then watch Civil War. If you cannot tell the difference between how the Avengers movies and the Cap movies work, then this is just a running shit into the ground argument.”

    Ahh JS. You’d miss water if you were dropped into the Atlantic with water balloons tied to your limbs. Go watch the marketing for WS, then watch marketing for Avengers, then watch marketing for Ultron, then watch marketing for Civil War. If you can’t tell the difference between how Avengers movies are marketed and how Civil War was marketed, you’re like the rest of America and took away what Marvel wanted you to: Giant Avengers Event Movie (now with 100% more Spider-Man!). We’re not even talking about the specific films themselves but I get it, that’s the conversation you’d prefer cause it fits into your narrative of these things.

  45. JS Partisan says:

    Man, the narrative? Yeah. It’s a grand conspiracy. Sure. Go watch your X-men films.

  46. Ben Kabak says:

    There is no super hero bubble. Even the crappiest of these movies is making 800 mill. You’ll probably see studios remake Blankman and Mystery Men at this rate.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon