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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady Intelligence

Weekend Estimates 2016-06-19 at 10.07.13 AM

Sensational Finding Dory launch. Animation record. Fourth best opening for Disney in the last 14 months. One of five grossing over $100 million in that same period. And according to this estimate, it is Disney’s best non-Star Wars, non-Marvel opening.

Pixar’s only $100m+ openings? Sequels. Guess Michael Eisner was right. But he wasn’t able to make the relationship work with Lasseter, but Iger was, so Iger gets credit and Eisner gets unfairly dismissed. All a matter of perspective.

Central Intelligence is Kevin Hart’s second $35m (rounded) opening this year. And really, when you take Dwayne Johnson out of the F&F franchise and a lot of other elements he is dropped into (giant effects in San Andreas, theLasseter franchise, being a supporting actor), this is really his best opening. So, really, a bigger event for Dwayne than for Kevin. Of course, Kevin can’t lead a CGI movie that will gross megabucks internationally. But maybe this is a crossover event for both actors, even if the numbers aren’t Ride Along or San Andreas big.

Warcraft‘s $340 million overseas is keeping the media from kicking Universal over crap US numbers. X-Men: Apocalypse gets a similar safety net with $364m to date internationally.

The Lobster is up to $6.7m domestic. This makes it the #3 film to be on fewer than 1000 screens in 2016 tod ate, behind Love & Friendship (Amazon & Roadside) and The Perfect Match (a Lionsgate “urban” comedy that failed to take off). A24 should get more accolades for this success, taking the Cannes film from another distributor only days before a failed attempt at a domestic release, then going with it just a few months later with little support from its cast (Colin Farrell did a bit).

In fact, looking at the under-1000s, the thing I see all over is a lack of support from talent that cost these releases dearly in a low-margin release environment. Susan Sarandon and JK Simmons for The Meddler and Michael Moore for his Where To Invade Next, are really the only fully-committed talent – aside from some photos and a couple late-night talk shows – amongst the top 25 films in this category. To be fair, many of these films are not celebrity talent-driven. But the ones that are… could their (small) numbers be doubled by the talent giving the distributors a couple more days of time to make the case? I think so.

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14 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady Intelligence”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    I dunno DP, most of Johnson’s career has been based around spectacle or R-rated action, so it’s difficult to say this is a highlight, especially since he’s a grower not a shower. I mean, THE GAME PLAN legged it to $90 million way back in 2007…could Hart do something similar? I have a tough time seeing him getting past $60 million as the Tooth Fairy or say, the Easter Bunny.

    Can you explain A24’s LOBSTER rollout? Nice success as you say… going to get past WHILE WE’RE YOUNG in their filmography, but is shedding theatres fast and never had a large footprint to begin with. Why not take it to 800+?

    NYSM and TMNT are officially dead as franchises, and Europe/China/Japan will be nothing more than face-saving exercises. And look at that ANGRY BIRDS drop. Yikes. Eerily similar to the smackdown MONSTERS U laid on Blue Sky’s EPIC a few years back on the same weekend for all 4 films in that comparison.

    A dozen tickets a day for CLOWN theatres. Poor Eli Roth. Hope VOD is kind.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    RIP Anton Yelchin.

    “Like Crazy” was the first movie date with my partner. Devastating.

  3. Sideshow Bill says:

    FUCK about Anton Yelchin. A great young actor. Best thing in Terminator: Salvation. His Michael Biehn imitation was spot on. RIP, young man.

  4. JS Partisan says:

    The Yelchin news, is just fucking disheartening. Whatever car be had, fuck that car, and the manufacturer.

  5. Pete B. says:

    Really thought word-of-mouth would help Warcraft after it got savaged by the critics. Its a fun film. Hopefully the poor box office in the US won’t stop a Director’s Cut BluRay being released with the 40-60 minutes they cut out.

    Yeah, that sucks about Yelchin. Enjoyed him and David Tennant in the overlooked Fright Night remake.

  6. JubbJubb says:

    Star Trek deaths always hit extra hard for some reason. That’s really a testament to how beloved that series is, no matter which cast you’re talking about.

  7. Stella's Boy says:

    What a gut punch. That is just insanely, ridiculously sad. Just saw Green Room and was reminded how much I like him. Saw the world premiere of Hearts in Atlantis at TIFF in 2001. Have liked him ever since. RIP.

  8. Chucky says:

    It’s easy to set a new box office record in any genre when ticket price inflation and 3D surcharges work in your favor.

    As to the meh receipts from the arty side? “The Meddler” and “Where to Invade Next” were promoted by slapping Academy Award Winner above the star’s name. “Where to Invade Next” also suffered by being banned from at least one chain of arthouse theaters.

  9. PcChongor says:

    The Yelchin interviews were always my favorite DP/30s. Can’t believe he’s already gone.

  10. Movielocke says:

    Finding dory had a 4 million increase Monday to Tuesday, is that because so many theatres discount Tuesday tickets, thus, functionally second run prices.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Holy whale, those are some weekday numbers. Not sure the inflation argument will hold much water Chucky. $500 million seems to be in the cards here.

  12. leahnz says:

    wasn’t there a byob up here before? i might have to start screencapping stuff – or doing less mescaline or some such, damn (was it removed? note to blog people: if you randomly remove posts it makes people think they’re trippin balls)

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah didn’t it have a pic of Dory and asked general summer questions? Maybe we’re on the same shit Leah.

    I’ll throw out a BYOB related thing though: everyone should see TAKE ME TO THE RIVER. Bizarre, waking dream-like indie debut that involves a gay teen’s trip to his Nebraska family’s semi-annual reunion. It goes anywhere besides where you expect.

    The director’s 2nd project: “a China-set science-fiction film about twin Olympic high divers, sisters and the evolution of man.” YAAAAAS

  14. leahnz says:

    ha yes it was a big blue Dory

    i’ll look out for ‘take me to the river’, i want to watch all the weird stuff. so sick of generic, safe movies. i had a good dirt-based doub-feat last night of ‘the rover’ (hadn’t seen it before) and ‘meek’s cutoff’ (second viewing) and i felt so dusty and thirsty and oddly satisfied afterwards. i realised to my dismay this is becoming a rare feeling. (pattinson was pretty good in “rover”; and there’s a super slow fade near the start of “meek’s” where a horse-with-rider appears in the sky in the background and gradually materialises into the wagon train on a ridge that’s just sublime, with the squeaky wheel (OIL THAT FUCKING WHEEL FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! that alone would drive me insane if i was wagon-training), some really beautiful shots in that movie — and that ending wow that takes some gall —- SPOILERS —- i think there’s a river in the gorge up yonder, sure hope so. i drank a large water after that)

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