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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady Born

Friday Estimates 2016-07-30 at 8.26.33 AM

Sp… born-again Bourne opens solidly. No leap. No letdown.

Right between the second and third Bourne entries, the gross is closer to the higher than the lower. Solid.

What will be more interesting is how international grosses rollout in a market that has changed dramatically in the nine years since the previous Damon Bourne. It was the #13 international grosser in 2007 with $215 million. The #13 international grossing title right now – 7 months into the year – is $238 million. The #13 international grosser by the end of 2015 was at $349 million. Obviously, these numbers may not follow… but it will be interesting to see if they do… and interesting to see if Bourne can make a significant step-up overseas.

Big moment for new distributor (staffed with a lot of well-established studio execs) STX, which has its first $20 million opening (first over $12m, actually) with Bad Moms. Moreover, this will be the best opening of the year for a movie that isn’t CG action/animation/horror or starring Kevin Hart, passing Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss. Also… the biggest opening aside from Divergent 3 coming from a non-major studio this year to date.

This film asserts the intention of STX to be in the category with Weinstein, Lionsgate, Open Road, and the studio Dependents, but not the glorious and beloved A24, Roadside Attractions and their kind. And even the Dependents (Searchlight, Focus, Sony Classics) have not opened any movies to $23 million-plus. Wide openings are not their bread and butter. STX clearly wants to play that field, as Screen Gems has as a division at Sony. This makes STX one of the most interesting stories in the business right now.

Speaking of Lionsgate… it’s not really fair to judge Nerve‘s Friday as “the same” after a Wednesday opening. Still, we’re looking at a $15m 5-day, so not a real success. Yet, not a disaster either… especially if word-of-mouth is good. It will top their Dirty Grandpa opening (over the first 5 days), but not by much.

At the end of the second weekend of the most recent Star Trek film, $146 million. This one? $100 million. One has to wonder if this will be the final frontier before a reboot.

The Secret Life of Pets will have to wait until Wednesday to cross $300 million domestic. A sluggish 27 days… which will be #3 for 2016 when it happens, ahead of The Jungle Book and Zootopia. Most of the international market is still to come and will define whether this is a huge hit or a mega-hit.

Lots of $10k per-screen starts this week. Gleason will lead the way with over $25k per on nine. Equity draws almost $20k per on four. Indignation will also be near $20k per on four. And Miss Sharon Jones could be just over or under the $10k-per line.

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9 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady Born”

  1. Stella's Boy says:

    Jason Bourne is OK. I wasn’t bored, but when it was over I felt like I had watched a remake. Four big set pieces, and other than Vegas I felt like I had seen them all before. They are well-staged but so familiar. And despite the inclusion of a tech billionaire and Snowden talk, the story is pretty damn stale (not to mention predictable). Also, what did Damon make per line of dialogue? $250,000? I know Bourne isn’t real chatty but wow he’s almost mute in this one. Just very meh.

    I really liked Tallulah. Heard an interview with the writer/director on The Frame and she told an interesting story from her past that led to her writing the movie. Decided to check it out and glad I did. It’s incredibly well-acted (so nice to see Allison Janney in a lead role) and often really funny. Great little flick.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    I need to check out TALLULAH. My experience with straight-to-Netflix movies this year has not been good, but I keep hearing positive things.

    I’m kind of stunned SECRET LIFE OF PETS is holding so well. I can’t find anyone who really liked it, and some characterized it as almost confrontational in its reliance on violence and potty humor. Yet it’s been sturdy, and looks destined to overtake ZOOTOPIA and challenge INSIDE OUT to become the #2 original animated movie (first-run).

  3. Stella's Boy says:

    Yeah check it out when you can. It’s worth it.

    Have you talked to any 8-year-olds about Secret Life of Pets? Mine loved it and still talks about it weeks after seeing it.

  4. Sideshow Bill says:

    That’s a poor number for Star Trek, eh? Shame. I saw it Thursday and had a blast. Probably the best of the “Star Trek Babies” (TY, David) trilogy. Karl Urban’s McCoy imitation continues to astound. It was pretty touching in places, too. But mainly it was a fun space opera, my favorite since Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Plus, they paid-off that Beastie Boys song in the first trailer. It was lame at the time but morphs into one of the most satisfying scenes in the movie, and of the Summer, for me anyway.

  5. brack says:

    Paramount is 0 for 2 with their summer releases. They just don’t know what they’re doing.

    According to box office mojo, Jason Bourne is doing pretty well overseas, with a $22.8m opening day in 46 countries, well on track with the biggest opening for the franchise. Still obviously too early to know if it will have legs.

  6. Sideshow Bill says:

    I gotta say the Werner Herzog/Pokemon Go stuff on the MCN front page is comedy gold.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    Yes! I lifted that for Facebook, thanks Ray/Bill.

    Good point on PETS Stella.

    BOURNE might be the exception to the non-superhero tentpoles this summer. Exiting this weekend, CONJURING 2 is #2 this summer for non-cartoons in terms of profitability, followed by ME BEFORE YOU and probably CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE (maybe even PURGE 3) before you get to XMEN, et al. Even if it feels like a clipshow episode, BOURNE is likely the rare-9 figure movie to make decent coin this summer.

  8. leahnz says:

    “It’s incredibly well-acted (so nice to see Allison Janney in a lead role) and often really funny. Great little flick.”

    re Tallulah, yay! i just watched it last night, it’s a gem

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    A clipshow episode seems to be exactly what people want from Bourne, based on box office and Cinemascore.

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~ David Simon