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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Still Strange Klady

Weekend Estimates 2016-11-13 at 9.36.50 AM copy

Nice holds for Doctor Strange and Trolls lead the way, while a solid unspectacular opening for Arrival offers hope and Almost Christmas is almost a strong opening. Loving expands quite well to 46 screens, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk cleans up in to 2 extremely specialized theaters, and Elle scares up a crowd in 2.

Don’t know that there is much more to say than was said yesterday.

Doctor Strange is $23m behind Guardians’ 10-day. Still, excellent.

Trolls held significantly better than any of the similar openings in the last couple years. It should hit $100 million tomorrow (aka 11 days), which suggests it deserves to be put in a unique class. No animated movie in the last 5 years has grossed over $200 million domestic without opening over $55 million. Until Trolls. (Since 2012, 14 animated films that went on to over $200m domestic opened over $55 million.) The highest grosser amonsgt the under-55 crowd was The Croods, which did $187m domestic after opening to $44m. Trolls is $5.5m ahead of Croods after 10 days and held 15% better on its second weekend. $200 million seems pretty much inevitable and could really take off over Thanksgiving. It has some serious competition in December with Sing, which is also an animated jukebox musical, though I suspect that Sing is looking for the over-55 model for its launch. And there is Moana too.

Arrival is an interesting movie commercially. It’s performing really nicely for an Amy Adams movie… and a little soft for a big sci-fi thriller. And this movie is both of those things. So this number feels fine to me. I think the word-of-mouth is going to be surprisingly strong. Most people I speak to don’t really know what to expect from the film. I get that. I didn’t know either. And I can’t wait to see it a third time soon.

Almost Christmas is really a franchise sequel, seven years later, with slightly odd timing. Quite inexpensive, it should pick up a bit/hold well next week and is likely a money maker, if not a killer app.

Great holds for Hacksaw Ridge and The Accountant, two audience-first movies.

People question Tyler Perry, but Boo! A Madea Halloween is the #2 Madea movie ever. There is magic in that dress.

Loving expands to 46 screens and has a hugely impressive $11,500 per-screen, which is a lot better, in my eyes, than a $59,000 per-screen on 2 or 4. There is not a fortune in this film, but it is a solid indie with strong Oscar future.

Speaking of $59k per-screens on 2, Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk opened in NY and LA and did a strong $59,350. The hard part now is that they have to expand. All hail efforts at art on Hollywood’s dime.

The great Elle grabbed $27,500 per on 2, which for a French-language film is impressive. Yet another film that leaves you thinking about the president-elect. Challenging. Upsetting. Brilliant movie.

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9 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Still Strange Klady”

  1. Sideshow Bill says:

    I don’t know when I’ll get a chance to see it but Verehoeven…..hell yes! Good to see him back. Now somebody get Johnathon Glazer on something, please.

  2. Joshua K. says:

    What franchise is “Almost Christmas” supposed to be associated with?

  3. cadavra says:

    I have to assume that the better part of the BILLY LYNN opening is generated by curiosity over that 120fps deal. I don’t know that there’s room for a second flag-waving war movie right now; I could be wrong, but I’m not feeling it.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    I remarked to my critic friend yesterday that TROLLS will probably do as well for DWA as HOME did in 2015. Cue the baffled look, and dawning realization that he reviewed a $180 million grosser and had completely banished its unremarkable existence from his mind.

    Such is the state of Dreamworks Animation today, where promotional singles (Rihanna, Timberlake) are the most noteworthy aspect of its output.

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    It’s unfortunate that DWA’s quality output was not rewarded at the domestic box office, like HTTYD2 and Panda 2 both under performing their predecessors while crap like Minions exploded big time.

    I’m surprised they haven’t fast tracked Madagascar 4 as yet. Part 3 made the most money thus far both domestic and international, and it has been 4 years.

    I just think they’re looking at stuff like Despicable Me, Minions, Secret Life of Pets, and thinking why the heck should we try to aim for quality when the silly stuff is raking in a cool $1b worldwide, hence Trolls. They recently shelved Croods 2, so someone is definitely rethinking their strategy.

  6. Mike says:

    I hadn’t heard that about The Croods. Makes me wonder if DWA is going to do to Chris Sanders what Disney did and let him go despite making quality hit movies at a time when both companies had them in short supply.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    Well, after the Universal deal with DWA, I wouldn’t be surprised if they shoehorn Meledandri into some kind of Lasseteresque oversight role. PETS remains, likely, the most profitable movie of 2016, so they’re about one more hit away from barreling down an endless road of mindless drivel over there. SING is the last original project slated at Illumination for at least two and a half years.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    Looks like a bloodbath at the box office. What geniuses thought to shoehorn so many titles into the weekend before Thanksgiving and then hammer audiences with another 4 titles next week?!

    BEASTS underperforming with BLEED, BILLY LYNN and 17 DOA and the holdovers getting taken out and shot around back. STRANGE suddenly sees its run at CAP 2 fade away.

  9. Geoff says:

    “Looks like a bloodbath at the box office. What geniuses thought to shoehorn so many titles into the weekend before Thanksgiving and then hammer audiences with another 4 titles next week?!

    BEASTS underperforming with BLEED, BILLY LYNN and 17 DOA and the holdovers getting taken out and shot around back. STRANGE suddenly sees its run at CAP 2 fade away.”

    A tad dramatic aren’t we being? Yes Beasts under-performed a bit and yes, now ‘Strange is performing like a TYPICAL comic book movie…..but isn’t much of this just a significant drop-off from last Friday which was a holiday?

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