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By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Moaning Lack of Arrivals That Can’t Be Found By Klady

Weekend Estimates 2016-12-04 at 9.15.15 AM

How much is there to day about the dead zone?

Drops, indeed, fell into the 40s and 50s from the 50s and 60s of Friday-vs-Friday.

Worst #1 gross for a weekend in a month.

Moana still looking at over $200 million domestic. Fantastic Beasts cracks $200m domestic next weekend and will pass Doctor Strange domestically before Christmas. Arrival becomes the first Best Picture candidate to pass $100 million domestic around the same time.

Trolls is dropping, though it has a couple more clear weekends before Sing.

The choice by Universal to go out with Sing just before Christmas is a big move by the studio. The biggest December opening for animation is just $14 million by The Prince of Egypt, all the way back in 1998. The last 3 Illumination openings were over $80 million. So how will this work out? Star Wars: The Force Awakens proved last December that anything can happen when you have something the audiences really want to see. I’m guessing that Universal is not anticipating a $100m launch, but Frozen did $124 million from the equivalent Friday to 12/21 (12/20 in their case) through the end of the holiday (17 days). And that run started 5 weeks in for Frozen. So for a new film with heavy demand? Well… Minions and The Secret Life Of Pets were the #2 and #3 fastest animated films to get to $200m domestic, 9 and 10 days. This is new territory for a major animated movie, really. I am guessing that the 17-day gross will be between these 2 markers, $124 million and $200 million, which would be record breaking.

Of course, the most attention will be on the Rogue One numbers.

Jackie is easily the king of per-screen this weekend. Reporting $54,840 per on 5. Next best, $10,920 on 4 for Miss Sloane (which, btw, held rather well in exclusive).

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12 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Moaning Lack of Arrivals That Can’t Be Found By Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    I love ARRIVAL, but it certainly says something about where Paramount’s at if an atmospheric sci-fi distribution pickup is their #2 grosser of the year (don’t see FENCES or OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY exploding).

    MOONLIGHT is days away from $10 million. Comps for this type of rollout lately are tough, but it’s been very much inline with (if slightly ahead) of TREE OF LIFE. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s enough of an audience left through awards season to get it past ROOM as A24’s #3 grosser.

    Aaaaand THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS is a few days away from surpassing DESPICABLE ME 2 as Illumination’s domestic #1, and Universal’s #2 all-time.

  2. chris says:

    “La La Land” is a crowd-pleaser. I suspect teenage girls may be the key to big grosses for it.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    MOANA is still in-line for $250 million. Re: the STRANGE vs BEASTS duel mentioned yesterday, it’s really a three-way that should end 1. Moana 2. Beasts 3. Strange

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Both Strange and Beasts were at $150m plus after the 2nd weekends and they both posted $40m plus as well in those weekends, whereas Moana is about $30m behind at the same point. I don’t think it’ll make up that ground, particularly when Beasts is still holding so strongly and only marginally behind Moana in the weekly daily numbers. I think it’ll be 1.Beasts. 2.Strange. 3. Moana.

  5. cadavra says:

    BEASTS’ success says a lot about the film’s quality, given that it’s strictly brand-extension with none of the Potter characters in it, not to mention an all-adult cast and a 1920s setting. Grown-ups are responding because it represents the kind of old-fashioned epic filmmaking that Hollywood and London used to do as a matter of course but now have mostly surrendered to the computer monkeys.

    It’s the characters, stupid.

  6. pat says:

    Isn’t Lion doing better per-screen than Miss Sloane?

  7. Oddvark says:

    Manchester By The Sea also had a better per screen than Miss Sloane (but not as good as Lion’s). The number shown on the chart for Manchester is off by a factor of ten.

  8. Molly's Dad says:

    Cadavra – Exactly right. I took a friend to see it who loathes fantasy movies and had never seen a Potter film. He loved BEASTS and has recommended it to everyone he knows. Because of the characters, the story-telling and the performances. Ms. Rowling knows just what she is doing, The audience I saw the film with – NYC members of SAG, AFTRA and the WGA – loved the movie. They cheered all during the credits.

  9. EtGuild2 says:


  10. spassky says:

    Fantastic Beasts and How To Extend Your Brand

  11. Mostly Lurking says:

    Along the same lines, Fantastic Beasts and How to Milk Them

  12. EtGuild2 says:

    ^Ding Ding Ding!

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