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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Still Fate Less Furious Klady

Friday Estimates 651w 2017-04-22 at 9.21.02 AM copy


A blah weekend as we head into the Guardians explosion, which will be the second $100 million-plus opening of the year after Furious Fate opened to only $98.8m.

Speaking of The Fate of the Furious, it is now on track to land between the grosses of Fast 5 and Furious 6, nowhere near 7. The weekend drop will be closer to 60%, which isn’t embarrassing for such a big opener.

Beauty is in a space without comparisons. Already past a billion worldwide, where it finally lands is coming closer, but has a lot of give. Regardless, Beast.

The newcomers didn’t land.

I have spent no effort trying to figure out why Unforgettable outdoor had no WB markings. But it escaped more than it was released.

The Promise is one of those horrible cases of a lot of talent with a ton of good intentions making a terrible, unsellable movie. The Armenian genocide is a worthy subject for a great film. But it has yet to happen.

The latest in Disney’s now sidebarred nature series opened to almost exactly what the last film in the series grossed on its opening Friday.

On the indie side, not pretty. The two most hopeful releases, Forgotten Phoenix (trying the Paranormal angle but without building up enough heat) and Free Fire, which is the second widest launch in A24’s history and will generate one-eighth of the opening of the widest release, The Witch.

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9 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Still Fate Less Furious Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    I didn’t hate THE PROMISE. But yeah, what in the world were they thinking with the soapy love story? Did no one learn anything from RED CLIFF? You can make a great movie about a widely unknown historical event WITH the event.

    GUARDIANS is tracking at $150. If it opens at $170+ (IRON MAN 3 was tracking at $150 at this point) and does $400+ does that mean the MCU has replaced RDJ as the top-liner on their marquee?

    BEAUTY has comps….it’s been running $10 million ahead of FINDING DORY consistently for weeks domestically. Worldwide is tougher, but the goal is to pass CIVIL WAR and MINIONS for #11 all time, which would take an on-par with MALEFICENT performance in Japan.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    For all my love of A24, gotta be honest–they’ve had a rough 2017 so far, minimum exposure regardless. The long BLACKCOAT’S DAUGHTER delay didn’t help, I didn’t even realize TRESSPASS AGAINST US came out, and now this.

    Two of their next three movies are in-house productions (their second and third ever)–THE LOVERS (which premiers today at Tribeca) and Trey Shults’ KRISHA follow-up. So a lot riding….hoping for the best!

  3. Ray Pride says:

    Remember some of these are output deals with AT&T-DirecTV. Trespass: here. Blackcoat’s: here.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    Aha Ray, thanks!

  5. Geoff says:

    “GUARDIANS is tracking at $150. If it opens at $170+ (IRON MAN 3 was tracking at $150 at this point) and does $400+ does that mean the MCU has replaced RDJ as the top-liner on their marquee?”

    You said it Etguild and I said this a year ago: THIS movie is the test-case since on MCU film WITHOUT RDJ has exceeded $800 million worldwide no matter HOW much they spend on them – the first ‘Guardians ended up costing over $230 million and I’m sure they spent significantly more on this one so I think $1 billion IS the expectation at this point. There is nobody rooting against that from happening MORE than RDJ’s agent because Spiderman Homecoming is not likely to reach that level no matter HOW much they push it as Iron Man 4….featuring SpiderMan.

    Not sure if it will have the legs to do $400 million domestic as the buzz and early reviews have been saying that this is “fun but more of the same” a la Iron Man 2….and once again, you have Disney cannibalizing themselves a bit as they have now down for the two previous May’s: Tomorrowland got demolished in the wake of ‘Ultron as did Alice 2 in the wake of ‘Civil War – the REAL price three of those four films paid was overseas. This time, I have a feeling that ‘Pirates 5 could still do gangbusters overseas and iffy domestically but Disney’s is spending enough on both films that they are likely $1 billion from BOTH which is NOT going to happen.

    I’m wondering if they’re going to actually heed this lesson in time for next year when they will be pulling the same release strategy by opening Avengers Part Infinity and Young Han Solo three weeks apart.

  6. Js partisan says:

    Geoff, all of the early Guardian reviews, are about how exceptional it is, and step up. Iron Man 2, is not exactly a step up on one. Guardians, seems like they cranked that shit up, and people love this shit. It’s going good to kick Beast in the nards, then The Last Jedi takes them out. Right now? Guardians is opening better, than expected.

    That aside, Fate and the Furious… A profitable fuck up. I really wish, they left this series alone, after Paul’s death. Here’s to the series, now focusing on Statham and The Rock. That movie, at least seems interesting.

  7. Geoff says:

    JS with the exception of a few of the standard folks who just seem to cut and paste their MCU review and/or tweets every six months for the next movie, “THIS time the MCU takes it to a new level…..lots of fun…..the stakes are higher this time… MCU film ever!” most of the early Twitter reviews have been that it’s OK but not as good as the first one. Don’t you worry, it will STILL get that Disney-sanctioned 90% on Rotten Tomatoes that Finding Dory and Doctor Strange received for being JUST good enough to most critics.

    Yeah it will probably open big, fade relatively fast, and still clear $1 billion but if it does…..that means that Disney isn’t getting the billion it wants from Pirates 5, hence my point.

  8. Js partisan says:

    Geoff, when Thor beats the JL, you just remember that relatively fast comment. It seems to give you consternation, that the marvel studios movies, matter to people. These things happen.

    Also, Pirates 5, isn’t making one billion dollars, in this dimension. It will make some bucks, but it’s not being cannibalized, by Guardians. May, is a long ass month, and there is a difference between the beginning, and end of the month.

    Seriously. Maybe those movies get those reviews… Because they earn them? Hmmmmmmmm?

  9. Geoff says:

    “Seriously. Maybe those movies get those reviews… Because they earn them? Hmmmmmmmm?”

    Yeah JS….just like I’m sure you would concur that Avatar and The Dark Knight Rises EARNED their high RT scores as well. It’s an AGGREGATE score and aggregate scores reflect TRENDS just like approval ratings or the DJIA… no, that’s not a measurement of quality.

    And yeah I’m watching some of the hot-off-the-press reviews all over YouTube for ‘Guardians right now….and the consensus is that it’s an overstuffed film that’s not as effective as the previous one and tries too hard to wring constant laughs more than developing the story. Guys like Kristian Harloff and Jeremy Jahns who have been delivering flat-out raves to pretty much every MCU film over the past couple of years both gave it negative reviews.

    And dude, YES these films matter to people…as did the Harry Potter films….as do Star Wars films….as do the Fast & Furious films….as did the Twilight films as you were so eager to remind us a few years back. That doesn’t mean you have to give them all passes JUST because they “matter” – I love the James Bond franchise, probably my favorite film franchise ever. And I’ll gladly admit than at least half of them are truly mediocre…and that SPECTRE was pretty much lackluster….and I’ll get super-jazzed when a Casino Royale or Skyfall hits it out of the park.

    And whether I vote with my dollars or Facebook comments or blogs or YouTube views or whatever else, I want my favorite characters to be in BETTER films! 😉 I don’t think it was a bad thing for future Star Wars films that Rogue One received such a mixed reception….MAYBE some of the folks at Lucasfilm might try to make a more unique, less fan-servicey film the next time around. Same goes for any Marvel or DC film…..if you want Superman to be better, then why not DEMAND that he be better?? 🙂

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

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