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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Alien: Klady

Friday Estimates 2017-05-20 at 8.51.52 AM copy

Alien: Covenant takes a hit from Prometheus, as audiences aren’t quite ready to jump back into the water, even though Fox has pushed the action agenda more aggressively this time out. With Pirates a week away, the question of whether the same will happen there is legit.

Prometheus did $276m overseas. Will Alien: Covenant top that or not? And will A:C improve, as it should, on Prometheus‘ 2,5x opening domestic number? These questions will determine the future of this prequel franchise.

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 2 is building distance from the original as it goes. At the end of the first weekend, it was $52m ahead. Second weekend, $69m. After Friday, $71m. By the end of the weekend, we’ll see. And of course, international is enormous, passing $400 million this weekend.

Everything, Everything is a positive for ailing WB. It’s not a huge number, but it will lead to profit if the reported $10m price tag on the film is remotely true. The studio has clearly not spent a fortune marketing the movie.

Fox’s third release in the last nine days, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, is eating it. Maybe cramming for three tests would be the metaphor. None of the three  openings went well, Snatched doing best (in perspective) of the three. Here, you had an openly acknowledged cast change and what seemed to be the hope that the old audience (now too old) would just show up. Captain Underpants seems to be what Wimpy was a few years ago (at least at my kid’s elementary school), so we shall see in couple weeks.

Two strong arthouse entries, Abacus and Wakefield, are in line to do $10k per in exclusive release this weekend.

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28 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Alien: Klady”

  1. PcChongor says:

    “Kong Arthur.” Sweet Jesus, don’t give Warner Brothers any ideas!

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    “Prometheus did $276m overseas. Will Alien: Covenant top that or not?”

    No. But it will in local currency. You have to assume the dollar doesn’t stay at a 17-year high (a 27% swing from PROMETHEUS) the rest of our lives, so that’s a win, and the franchise will roll on.

    Also a $23 million opening for a $40 million production with international dead in the water isn’t better than an $80 million opening (domestic+ international last weekend) for a film scraping the 9-figure budget mark.

  3. Movieman says:

    No Friday figures for the “Norman” expansion?

  4. Sideshow Bill says:

    I had a completely satisfying experience with Alien: Covenant. I wish there had been more practical FX aliens but the CGI was good nonetheless. I loved the David/Walter dynamic. Fassbender is brilliant. For me it was well-paced and put together, expanding on themes in Prometheus (which I love) while upping the horror and action. I had no problem with the last 20 minutes of the film. I liked the ending. I know it’s all retconning but it feels much more elegant and natural than, say, a lot of what Lucas did in the prequels.

    I don’t know. I’m a mega-fan of the series but I still tempered my expectations. Maybe that helped.

    As far as “more characters doing more dumb things,”ok sure. But the way I look at it is that if people didn’t do dumb things in horror movies we wouldn’t have a lot of horror movies, and a lot of good ones. It’s my favorite genre. I respect the tropes. Besides, smart people in real life get killed every day by doing dumb things. It does happen. I’m not making excuses for lazy writing, nor am I saying that this is how EVERYONE should view these types of movies. It’s just how I see my way into these things, and how I stay in love with the genre.

    Disappointed in the numbers, though. I hope we get more.

  5. Joe Straatmann says:

    I liked Covenant well enough. It’s very clear Ridley’s done trying to innovate the horror genre and the worst parts involved almost every horror beat being completely predictable (The best ones were the early ones). I liked the rest of it. I get the feeling this would’ve been better received by certain sectors if it was Prometheus instead of Prometheus being Prometheus (All though if it was, it probably would’ve needed an extra 20 minutes added to its running time to rewrite and insert the backstory). It has dumb in it, like why the hell aren’t you wearing spacesuits on an unfamiliar planet? But it’s not the person who made the maps getting completely lost and the biologist acting like Dennis Nedry when it’s very clear, he’s agitating the damn thing and it will kill him.

    The spartan characters worked for me except Billy Crudup’s guy whose deal needed a little more elaboration. So the religious guy is the one person on board the ship who doesn’t want to ensure a proper burial? That seems ass backwards. And he talks about faith, but what exactly is that faith? I mean, Wing Commander is one of the worst damn movies I have ever seen in my life, but I understood what being a Pilgrim was and why it was scorned by the rest of the people. If you want to go into the flaws and hypocrisies of being a religious person leading, fine. This seemed to want to mark a guy they just wanted to kick around. I get the feeling Jim Caviezel would’ve brought something to role, but he would’ve likely turned down the movie down flat if they offered it to him. It just kind of messed up seeing Billy Crudup, a damn good actor I hadn’t seen in awhile.

  6. Sideshow Bill says:

    Agree on Crudup’s character. He was set up for something interesting then it just kinda got dropped. The movie ain’t perfect by any means but I still had a heck of a time.

  7. Max S. says:

    “…Billy Crudup, a damn good actor I hadn’t seen in awhile.”

    Crudup’s been killing it recently in prestige movies — 20th Century Women, Jackie, Spotlight. Not exactly like he’s been off the grid.

  8. JsPartisans says:

    The tropes, are why the genre, can be so damn ridiculous. Alien movies, shouldn’t be full, of morons. It’s failed, so here’s to the return… Of… Newt.

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    Every genre has tropes. Use your head.

  10. leahnz says:

    christ js would you pls elaborate on the newt thing? (is it what i said in that other thread? i don’t rememember which one it was now so i missed it if you replied)

  11. palmtree says:

    Newt = little girl from Aliens rescued by Ripley.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    Maybe it helps to like the genre but people doing dumb shit doesn’t bother me and is overblown. I don’t expect totally realistic human behavior in a sci-fi horror movie set 100 years in the future. It’s not masquerading as the Manchester-By-The-Sea of sci-fi/horror. It’s like expecting realistic human behavior in MCU fare (and it’s not like people don’t do stupid shit in all genres and yes all genres have tropes).

    I’m with Sideshow Bill (and A.O. Scott; nothing wrong with effective brand management). It delivers the goods. Fassbender is exceptional and the production values are excellent. I had great fun seeing a proper xenomorph do its thing on the big screen while being able to actually see it.

    It does waste a lot of talent and I wish the great cast played characters with a little more personality. I agree that Crudup’s character is underdeveloped and Waterston is pretty bland. Wish Bechir and Ejogo had more to do as well. But I got what I wanted and expected from it. Worth seeing on the big screen. Hope it’s not the last one.

  13. Amblinman says:

    Biggest problem I have with A:C logic is David’s plan.


    So he starts with an airborne pathogen that wipes out an amazingly advanced civilization in a matter of what seemed like minutes. He decides he must destroy man because we’re not worthy. He takes that pathogen and keeps “evolving” it until it can…kill 5 or 6 people at a time through a laborius two stage birthing process? Wha?

    Movie was otherwise okay.

  14. Breedlove says:

    Really enjoyed Alien. I was disappointed in Prometheus. This was a lot of fun.

    Joe, just curious, what makes you think Jim Cavieziel would turn down a nice role in a prestigious Ridley Scott blockbuster? haven’t seen him in a while. maybe he has a cushy tv gig I’m blanking on.

  15. Warren says:

    He had a cushy TV gig–Person of Interest–but that ended a year ago.

  16. Js partisan says:

    Boy, you better fucking step away from the computer, and check your fucking head. The whole fixation on tropes, is bullshit, but stupid characters in movies, are fucking tiresome. Seriously, Manchester by he Sea, features real stupid human shit. This movie? Manufactured bullshit, that ignores you know… Education levels. Also, motherfucker, I’ve seen thousands of fucking movies, and not everything is the MCU with me. Again, EXCUSE ME, FOR HAVING A FUCKING PREFERENCE! OH MY GAWD! Good Ol’Jr… Going right over your head.

    This movie, is going to lose in the actuals, so it’s fucking over. Time to give it to Neil, and let him fix the Aliens sequels. You know Aliens, Leah? It features fucking Newt. The little kid, that Alien3 killed off, because it’s shit.

  17. Amblinman says:

    Yeah, let’s root for talented filmmakers to continue being tied up in old franchises because guys our age won’t let go of their VHS collection.

  18. Stella's Boy says:

    IO why did you even see it (and chill the fuck out out man)? You were trashing it before it was released and pre-judged it. So why did you pay to see a movie you said was bad before you saw it? Talk about ignoring education levels….

  19. Js partisan says:

    You state, that I should chill out, then respond like a douche? Yeah. You’re still a tool, and I fucking do love the ol”xenomorph. Can we just go back to the days, where we ignore one another? This petty shit, is a waste of time, and I’ve been trying to be decent, to you, for years. Efuckingnough.

    Blomkamp, didn’t want to make District 10, made two movies people hate, to varying degrees, and his Aliens sequels reboot got people excited. Until, old cranky pants, decided to make his film, and waste his time, on unnecessary exposition film, to his own fucking nostalgic horror film. If anyone, is doing what you are stating, Man. It’s Sir Ridley. Fox, put money on the wrong horse. I guarafuckingtee you, that a Blomkamp Aliens 3, makes more than this shit, at the box office. Who holds onto VHS? Pfffffftttttt. Laserdics… You hold onto them.

  20. Sideshow Bill says:

    In response to Amblinman’s spoiler complaint


    David uses the majority of the pathogen on the Engineers. He shows walter, I think, what’s left. Perhaps there isn’t enough there to single handedly wipe out life on Earth. That’s the logic I used. Maybe I’m understanding wrong. You have a point though.


    JS first of all ease up on the commas. Your posts are almost impossible to understand. that combined with your rage makes you almost unreadable. That being said I was and still am all for Blomkamp’s reboot. Even while I like the prequels I am OK with erasing Alien 3 & 4 and going forward. Even with the failure of this film Fox won’t let the IP sit there. It’s still strong. Maybe they’ll revive the Blomkamp film, hopefully while Weaver is still interested and capable. Plus, I’d love to see Michael Biehn back on the big screen.

    So I, personally, don’t disagree with you 100%. But you’re kind of a dick. I like this forum specifically for the lack of dickishness. You stick out like a sore thumb, dude. Settle down.

  21. Js partisan says:

    Bill, you post that; and I’m an asshole? Really? Check your privilege, and read some Martha Hacker. Again, I’ve never written a post like you did, so why don’t you stop being a fucking asshole? Oh look! A white male horror fan… WITH ALL THAT PRIVILEGE! SO SHOCKED NOT SHOCKED!

  22. Sideshow Bill says:

    Your posts go beyond anything I said. But whatever. It’s you character.

    And seriously, why DID you pay $$ to see it? You hate horror. You hated the idea of this movie. You’re complicit. I am a horror fan but I criticize horror fans en masse because they eat up too much junk like Saw part 12, or cry when the latest F13th movie gets delayed. You consumed something you believed to be crap of your own free will. Me, i don’t pay for things I don’t wanna see no matter how big a movie I am.

    It’s just curious. i think you just wanted to be able to bitch about it. You get off on it. But I like I said, you’re what i call a “character poster.” It’s your schtick. That’s fine. Live and let live, buddy.

  23. Js partisan says:

    I love Sir Ridley. Sure. I love Tony more, but I’m always willing to give Ridley a chance, even when he fucks up. He’s Sir Ridley, and I give him the benefit of the doubt.

    That aside, I answered your post, in kind. If you think I am not the realest motherfucker in this blog, then you are sorely mistaken. I’m not fucking lex. This is who I am, and I don’t stand for bullshit. That’s the end of it. How fucking insulting could you be? Privileged… Like Chad fucking James.

  24. Sideshow Bill says:

    Yup. You’re the real deal. And I don’t know what the fuck you mean when you keep bringing up “privilege.”

    And you’re right. You’re not Lex. He was funny.

    You’re act is old and this conversation is a flat circle.

    Carry on with your bad-ass self.

  25. Amblinman says:

    @JS I wish old-ass Ridley weren’t wasting time with his Avatar sequels version of his own Alien movie. I’d love it if he brought his experience to bear on more interesting pursuits. As the movie headed towards its climax it struck me there is literally nothing left to do or say with the series.

    @Sideshow – on your spoiler explaination: maybe. I don’t recall any dialogue to that effect.

    On your comment that the IP is still valuable. Is it? I know it’s certainly well-known but when was the last time these movies made money?

  26. Js partisan says:

    It’s not a fucking act, and you not understanding privilege… Makes you this blog’s Chad James. Once again… Don’t… Start.

    Man, she’s probably going to be a part of Pandora, and that’s going to be hokey as hell.

  27. leahnz says:

    i can’t be reading this right, two people in this thread explaining to me who ‘newt’ is?…

    what is even happening

  28. Joe Straatmann says:

    Sorry for being late on stuff. Sunday was errand day.

    @Max: Oh, that would explain it. My knowledge on prestige Oscar movies has been kind of thin lately as around that time, I have to chop movie viewing to next-to-nil to make Christmas happen. I should probably get to Spotlight on Netflix though….

    @Breedlove: He’s a pretty well-known Catholic, and I don’t think he would go for a guy whose only two traits are he’s the only religious person on the crew and he’s an idiot who grabs control without having any leadership skills, getting nearly everyone killed as a result. It feels like being in a movie designed to call you a life-ruining tool at all times that’s not a comedy.

    And in general, I found the dumbness of Covenant’s crew to be within human parameters. Like I said, the HUGE problem with Prometheus (Though I do really like about half of it) is the stupid shit that happens is done by people who really REALLY should know better.

    In Covenant, the bad things are done in a predictable way. Of course the person who goes off on his own to take a piss or the couple who have sex are going to get it, but it’s more dramatic irony than stupidity because WE know it’s a bad idea but they don’t. Aside from Crudup’s character who is a sub-in, the people in the position to do their jobs do them well when they have to. Tennessee reacts exactly as a person would in their position with the information he has.

    They don’t have texture unless you watched the ten-minute thing separate from the movie, but most of the actors fill in their characters with their performances. Daniels’ problem is the same problem as Shaw in that she’s following Ellen Ripley, and those are some damn hard shoes to fill. Fassbender is still brilliant.

    I liked the movie well enough, though I think we missed a much better movie after Scott changed direction to make it less of a sequel to Prometheus and more a prequel to Alien. The looks we get into what happened between the two movies gives a hint at a very small, but very fascinating movie. Maybe too small for the Alien franchise, but damn, if you wanted more of Fassbender, that movie would’ve opened up the doors for a real meaty role for David.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

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