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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by NoWatch of the IP Klady


56, 43, 35, 23. See a pattern here?

Those are the opening days of the first four Pirates movies. The first film had a Wednesday open and a $14m first Friday.

Domestically, Pirates is over at this scale, what with a $40 million star in the lead. Internationally, Disney is hoping not to care what happened domestically.

Paramount had an ugly Baywatch launch, weaker than Dwayne’s (and Wahlberg’s and Bay’s) Pain and Gain. I don’t think it’s just because of the movie’s flaws in filmmaking, but because of the concept, which was well-reflected by the marketing. Do you make a Baywatch movie that embraced the spirit of the show, which includes prurient titillation, but always keeps a lid on it. or do you focus on dick jokes and over-the-top action that doesn’t work as action? They’ll be hoping for international to make the pain go away.

Len typo’d in last week’s opening number in for Alien: Covenant. I believe the correct number is around $3 million and a drop of over 75%. More pain. More looking to international.

I hate “sky is falling” pieces. The sky isn’t falling. But you can be sure that a lot of studios execs are dirtying their Depends as what worked before is not working now. Some of these titles aren’t just off domestically, they are way off domestically. A lot of movies being made by Hollywood driven almost exclusively by international potential. But American moviegoers aren’t taking up the slack when they aren’t interested. There are too many other entertainment options.

What hasn’t changed is that people will go to the movies in huge numbers if they see something  they want, even when the movie is iffy. Sequels are not dead. IP is not dead. But more and more, studios are getting smacked for reaching behind their grasp… when they knew full well they were doing just that in the first place and closing their eyes and hoping for the best. Open your eyes, folks.

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19 Responses to “Friday Estimates by NoWatch of the IP Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Well, well, well. The dominant studio’s top-line live action franchise opens to a lower Memorial Day total than a third-rate superhero franchise at its supposed nadir last summer.

    Steven Spielberg is an old man, like it or not. Pirates of the Caribbean can’t match the equally tired, wheezing Singer-helmed X-Men franchise. Yup, this will make a bit more money because of huge international canceling out the whale of a budget. Who thinks this is worth another go-round before 2025?

  2. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’ll be staying in this weekend. Plenty coming in the next few weeks I’d rather give my money to. $$ saved now means $$ I can give to Valarian later this Summer (if it’s good which i really hope it is)

    I did watch John Wick 2 last night, and predictably loved it. Michael Bay wishes he were so smooth. I’ve always loved Reeves even through his rough spots and I’m glad he’s back. I love the world-building and all the details. That being said i kinda hate myself for loving it. I’m very anti-gun and the film fetishizes guns and gun violence in the extreme. Does that make me a hypocrite? Does it mean I’m just flawed? Or does it mean I’m normal because I can tell reality from fantasy and enjoy the fantasy? I hope it’s the third but it might also be the other 2 in part. As much as I was loving it I did stop every now and then and shake my head. That being said, bring on Chapter 3. I’ll sort my morality out before that hits.

    Gonna finally watch Get Out today, I think. Can’t believe i haven’t seen it yet.

  3. Js partisan says:

    Haven’t we had a bunch of shit turds, launching in May for the last few years? This is just the way of the world now. The Executives, are just grasping at straws, because of ip. If only one studio would go, and try to make their own.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    It’s a broken system at this point. Spielberg saying superhero movies will go the way of the western as an avalanche of poo engulfs him from behind (no pun intended on that last part).

    Memorial Day has suddenly become a FEMA emergency zone judging by the last decade. No panic over organic grosses is needed as DP said, but garbage is more likely to be rewarded justly in the online age and more garbage is being produced, which is a problem.

  5. Pete B says:

    You’re not a hypocrite. You’re just living vicariously through the film.

    When the wife & I saw John Wick 2 in the theater, there was a row of little old ladies in front of us who giggled throughout the film. Their favorite scene? The pencil.

  6. Charles Mayaki says:

    It seems as if raunch comedy is dead.
    What is raunch comedy? Shock value, “I can’t believe they said that or I can’t believe they showed that” comedy that has been passing as R rated comedy for the last few years. And now it is being rejected.
    It started with Bridesmaid which was actually funny with a strong well written script and not a bunch of outrageous, shock value skits passing as a story.
    But it seems as though someone misunderstood what made that movie work and for the last seven years, these comedy writers have been trying to one up each other with whom can shock the audience the most.
    It’s over. Thank god. The audience has said no more. You know, like learn how to tell a joke again.
    When the Rock can’t open a picture, the audience is sending you a message loud and clear.

  7. Sideshow Bill says:

    Yea, Pete B. I don’t feel guilty for enjoying it. Maybe it helps that I had the self-awareness to question my own enjoyment of it. Not to pat myself on the back or act like I have any moral high ground. But I’m glad I am aware of the questions surrounding fantasy violence while still being able to enjoy the fantasy of it.

    But anyway…

    Looking at Box Off Mojo’s list of of top Memorial Day Weekend 4 Day openers is a trip down memory lane, a lot of it bad. Godzilla ’98. MIB2. X-Men 3. Pearl Harbor. Ugh. A lot of them made money but as others have said the quality has been extremely questionable.

  8. palmtree says:

    Yeah, Memorial Day movies? Not worth remembering.

  9. Doug R says:

    Calm down, Diana of Themyscira is coming

  10. brack says:

    May hasn’t been a good month for several years now except for the the first weekend releases (for me, anyway). June can’t come any sooner. I’m hoping Wonder Woman to be good (early word is indicating it’s good).

  11. Ray Pride says:

    She’s better.

  12. leahnz says:

    WW is a bit of a hoot, pleased for Jenkins who got skillz (nice character work)

  13. Js partisan says:

    That nonsensical shit above Stone Cold aside. Baywatch, is another property, that was made without the producers, doing fucking math. Millennials, are the ones driving box office, for the most part, and they don’t know shit about Baywatch. It has no name recognition for them, The Rock is an action star to them, and they seem to like Efron in a shirt. It’s just weird Ip, to turn into a 21st century property, because it’s height was 20 years ago, and more people liked it abroad than the US!

    Also, you know the Beard, needs to do THE Math as well. Millennials grew up with comic book movies, MSCU and quality Batman films, and these movies have only been getting weirder and better. Sure. Rebooting the franchises, may make comic books movies fall out of fashion, for a bit, but guess what? It’s still the millennial genre, and their generation is bigger than the Beard’s, so he just needs to accept Ready, Player One, is going to be an afterthought, under a month from being released, because… Of… A comic book movie.

  14. Geoff says:

    “Baywatch, is another property, that was made without the producers, doing fucking math. Millennials, are the ones driving box office, for the most part, and they don’t know shit about Baywatch. It has no name recognition for them, ”

    Maybe JS, but when did Millenials give a shit about 21 Jump Street either? Consider me shocked by how Baywatch is tanking….I guess the producers were doing math based on 22 Jump Street doing $330 million WW on a $50 million budget.

    And HEL, yeah I was just thinking that too – we’re just getting INUNDATED with Feminazi superhero movies, Elektra came out in 2005 but it feels like it was only yesterday…..

  15. Js partisan says:

    Geoff, there is a difference though… 21 Jumpstreet is a fun conceit. Baywatch… Not so much.

  16. rabartlett says:

    “Baywatch” is just something I think too many people felt embarrassed buying tickets for. And it’s certainly not a date movie. Plus, people were trying to split the difference so much (“But it’s a parody!” “Let’s focus on the dudes!”) that the whole thing frayed.

    Also, when you’re selling this as a broad buddy comedy, one of them has to be more or less a career comedian. Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart. Zach Effron and Seth Rogen. Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill. You can’t have two buff dudes who are both driven to be the best, except one of them is too Dudley Do-Right and one of them is too much of a partier. The other person in the equation needs to be the Kevin Hart, the Seth Rogen, the Melissa McCarthy.

  17. Geoff says:

    JS I think it’s all in the execution – 21 Jump Street COULD be a fun concept….except when it’s The Mod Squad.

  18. Js partisan says:

    Man. That Mod Squad movie… The worst.

  19. Geoff says:

    I never saw the whole movie actually but I gotta figure….Giovanni Ribisi and Clair Danes playing teenagers playing cops playing teenagers…..what could go wrong?? 🙂

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