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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady: Creation

Friday Estimates 2017-08-12 at 9.09.48 AM

It’s been an uninspired summer and this is an appropriately uninspired weekend to close it out.

Annabelle: Creation will win easily. As The Conjuring 2 opened to within $1.5 million of The Conjuring, Annabelle 2 looks like it will open within $1.5 million of Annabelle.

With Dunkirk holding strong at #2, this is the first time in at least a decade (I stopped my research with 2007) in which WB has had the #1 and #2 movie on a weekend.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature could crack $10 million, but won’t come close to the surprise success of The Nut Job.

If The Dark Tower opened bigger, a 62% second Friday drop wouldn’t be bad. But…

Girls Trip is slowing, but still pushing along to $100 million sometime in the next five or six days.

Spider-Man: Homecoming passes $300 million domestic, which neither Amazing Spider-Man movie did, but it is lagging behind both ASMs worldwide. Worldwide will likely pass ASM2 worldwide, but not ASM.

The Glass Castle tiptoed out and will do about $3k per screen on 1,461.

Detroit, in its second weekend, starts the weekend out of the Top 10, likely to gross less than $4 million for the 3-day.

Ingrid Goes West and Good Time roll out well in exclusives, with Good making a little more on four but with Ingrid doing a better per-screen on three.

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14 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady: Creation”

  1. Dr Wally Rises says:

    The highest grossing WW2 movie is Saving Private Ryan with $216 million, and I don’t think Ryan’s crown is entirely safe from Dunkirk at this point. The last three years (Guardians 1, Rogue Nation and Suicide Squad) have seen the last hit of the Summer stick around for a while.And Dunkirk has IMAX screens all to itself until Kingsman, which is another six weeks away.

  2. Big G says:

    So glad the “can Wonder Woman make it to $400 million” comments can end. I never thought it was in doubt.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    I am happy for people who always knew a summer superhero flick would have the best multiplier of any Top 100 opener. I am not so wizened obviously. But now! Can it beat CAPTAIN AMERICA CIVIL WAR and IRON MAN 3??? I think it can! Fight, fight, fight.

    A big moment for canine masturbation with the good rollout for GOOD TIME :p

    David do you have some inside info that HOMECOMING is getting reamed with Chinese and Japanese audiences? Because it would have to be wayyyyy down from ASM1 and 2 to miss topping ASM1 worldwide at this point.

    WOLF WARRIOR 2 is the actual big story of the week.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Pie in the sky dream for sure, but I sincerely wish Hitman’s Bodyguard is good and can pull a Rush Hour to end the summer on a high note.

    My hopes for Dark Tower was completely dashed.

  5. TrackerBacker says:

    “Ingrid Goes West and The Only Living Boy in New York both roll out well in exclusives, with Boy making a little more on four but with Ingrid doing a better per-screen on three.”

    You appear to have swapped out Good Time for Only Living Boy. Only Living Boy is tanking.

  6. Ray Pride says:

    [ED.: Thanks!]

  7. Big G says:

    Et, I meant I never doubted it once it got over the $390 million mark. When it was at $393 million someone here said it MIGHT make it to $400 million around Labor Day and here it is at $400 million four weekend before that.

  8. PcChongor says:

    Three big cheers for “Good Time”!

  9. palmtree says:

    I called Wonder Woman’s 400 back on June 25th on this blog. Seemed pie in the sky at the time. If only I had placed some bets on it…

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    Heather called it opening weekend, but I agree it’s impressive. It’s like the people who picked Trump to win the General Election before the Iowa Caucasus.

    I’m confused as to why the DVD is dropping pre-Labor Day. Seems like maybe no re-release?

  11. Bulldog68 says:

    I also felt the WW DVD is being released a bit early. GotG2 DVD release date is Aug 22 and it’s theatrical release was almost a full four weeks before WW.

  12. palmtree says:

    Okay, Heather wins.

    They can still do a re-release after the DVD drops. I feel like WW fans aren’t your typical moviegoer. They will re-watch it at the theater because they like it, not just because they can’t see it at home.

    And again if WB goes after Oscar recognition, WW would have a chance to become the #5 superhero movie ever. What?!?!

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    As long as it gets the re-release it doesn’t necessarily need that…it’s well ahead of HUNGER GAMES. Interested in seeing if the national princess obsession in Japan will be enough for it to cross over and hold off WOLF WARRIOR 2 and HOMECOMING on the summer chart.

  14. leahnz says:

    is this the ‘i told you so’ thread

    you have so little time left you in such danger girl, so many people tried to warn you of the obvious fascism of hateful bigots and were pooh-poohed, pull your heads out of your asses before its too late. history repeats, learn from the past, for the sake of everyone

    “The best way to take control over a people and control them utterly is to take a little of their freedom at a time, to erode rights by a thousand tiny and almost imperceptible reductions. In this way, the people will not see those rights and freedoms being removed until past the point at which these changes cannot be reversed.”

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon