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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Numbers in Black Klady

wknd Estimates 2017-08-06 at 10.32.27 AM copy

The weekend went from bad to worse, as The Dark Tower turned out to be front-loaded, managing only 2.5x Friday for the weekend and Detroit, great reviews and all, managed only 2.8x Friday. Kidnap did 2.7x Friday, but that was expected, given its genre. Meanwhile, holdovers Dunkirk, The Emoji Movie, and Girls Trip were all over the 3x Friday line. The Weinstein Company had a strong start on four screens for Wind River, delivering over $40k per.

Friday is about expectations, which has not been a good thing for movies or journalism. And 3-day estimates are about gaining perspective over a full launch of a film.

Neither was pleasant this weekend, especially for two of the three newcomers. The Dark Tower, which may have been inexpensive enough not to cost anyone at Sony their job, couldn’t get to a $20 million opening. You have to go all the way back to 1998 to find a first week of August without a $20 million opener. Snake Eyes and Halloween: H2O. Memories light the corners of my mind.

Still, even with the weak weekend, The Dark Tower is the #2 Stephen King opening of all time. A big chunk of that is timing, as 28 of the 41 Stephen King adaptations launched more than 20 years ago, when opening weekend wasn’t the studio-created obsession that it is now. (The hysteria about shortening the windows didn’t come from audience preference. It’s been driven this way for decades now.) Still, 1408 is the only $20 million opener and The Green Mile is the only film to gross over $72m domestic. So dream as we might about the master of thrills, one of the greats of the past two generations, delivering big hit movies, history tells us otherwise. Could this change, in what is really the third wave of King movies? Sure. It might explode. But more likely, The King Fantasy will continue to be fool’s gold. Some really good, memorable films made throughout. But more niche product than mass product for moviegoers.

$10 million for Kidnap is a win for the new distributor. It suggests $25m at minimum for theatrical, which should more than cover the careful marketing and give the film a bigger price tag in post-theatrical. Lots of existing distributors would be happy with this number for a not-so-great film with a star who doesn’t have a ton of opening power.

And Detroit. Just couldn’t close the deal. Part of the failure is the reality of a hard movie. A lot of it is misunderstanding what is hard about the movie. I covered this thoroughly yesterday.

Dunkirk continues to roll. It’s turning out that the closest Nolan comp is Batman Begins, though Interstellar seems close as well. Both suggest high 180s is where the final domestic is headed. There is already another $180m in the bank from international.

Girls Trip is slowing down, but has $100m domestic well within its sights.

Spider-Man: Homecoming is going to crack $300m domestic next weekend. International is well behind the Amazings, but China could make up the difference all by itself.

The two $10k per-screeners this weekend are Wind River and Columbus. With $40k+ per, the door is open for Wind River. But we have to be patient to see how they expand.

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49 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Numbers in Black Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    In positive news….

    WOLF WARRIORS 2 is across $400 million, and crossed $1 million here in the US!

    And incredibly, $1 billion worldwide might be in the cards for DM3 after all, as it would need to make somewhat less in the rest of its run (with 3 markets to open) than it has in the last two weeks.

    I guess that’s positive 😐

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    Kidnap might not be in double-digits when final numbers come in tomorrow, but that’s still pretty good for an August dump. That and 47 Meters Down are quiet wins. New distributors, long delays, no buzz, extremely low expectations. People like sharks and Halle Berry. And a good B movie in the summer, which I’d say 47 Meters Down is.

    Hoping Wind River opens in Milwaukee on Friday. Really want to see it.

  3. Christian says:

    Is “Escapes” not reporting? I see it listed on BoxOfficeMojo’s weekend chart for last weekend but not on the weekend chart last weekend here or on the initial report of this weekend’s grosses. Sorry that I can never figure this out. It’s just that the BoxOfficeMojo number from last week is very week and I suspect any expansion numbers will be the same, even though I greatly enjoyed the film and hope people seek it out.

  4. Christian says:

    very *weak*

  5. Movieman says:

    Does Weinstein even have the money to take “Wind River” wide-wide (2,000+ screens)?
    I hope so, but won’t hold my breath.
    They seem to have been on life support since “Hateful Eight” underperformed.
    I wonder if Harvey and Bob are kicking themselves for not distributing “47 Meters Down” via their Dimension shingle. (Was surprised to see their names on the film.) That could’ve been a win-win: a low budget movie with a nice profit margin. Heck, it grossed nearly as well domestically as their “biggest” recent film, the Oscar-nominated “Lion.”

  6. Warren says:

    A lot of those Stephen King grosses look better taking inflation into accout–Carrie, The Shining, Stand by Me, Pet Sematary and Misery would all be over $125 million domestic in 2017 dollars.

  7. Aaron Aradillas says:

    All WONDER WOMAN needs is $600,000. Can it pull it off? Stay tuned…

    Also, with DETROIT make more money than THE HURT LOCKER?

  8. Chucky says:

    What difference does it make? Kathryn Bigelow is to Murica as Leni Riefenstahl was to the Third Reich.

    And it’s so rewarding to see the Algore sequel stiff as expected.

  9. Ray Pride says:

    Boxoffice Mojo has Hurt Locker at $17 million domestic, $32.2 million international.

    So… maybe not?

  10. GdB says:

    “What difference does it make? *Alex Jones and Breitbart* is to Murica as Leni Riefenstahl was to the Third Reich.

    And it’s so rewarding to see they’re QVC for conspiracy nuts and con artists as expected.”

    Fixed that for ya, Chucky. 😉

  11. greg says:

    Chucky said: And it’s so rewarding to see the Algore sequel stiff as expected.

    Typing aside, why is it rewarding?

  12. EtGuild2 says:

    In Chucky’s world, Osama Bin Laden wasn’t a porn-guzzling, cave-dwelling cartoonish villain, but a humble conservative messiah who understood women’s place in the world and unfortunately became a victim of Jewish bankers’ hook nosed machinations to destroy the WTC and drive up defense stocks.

  13. jspartisan says:

    Chucky, I may be remiss in typing this, but fuck you! FUCK YOU VERY MUCH!

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    Early to make a final verdict but EMOJI, thankfully, would be symbolized by the meh face in its overseas debut. On par with STORKS, meaning $200 million looks like the optimistic goal at this point, but it could fall well shy of that given word of mouth.

    A small hit, but I’m not certain Sony is pleased by this being only slightly more profitable, at best, than SAUSAGE PARTY.

  15. PcChongor says:

    Granted, “Zero Dark Thirty” was an epic piece of literal torture porn, but to equate Bigelow with Leni Riefenstahl is at best lazy and at worst purposefully disingenuous and sexist. If anything, Michael “‘Merica!” Bay has been the military’s golden cinematic child for over twenty years, and Peter Berg and Clint Eastwood aren’t too far behind him.

    But, even so, who cares? Anyone who goes into a movie looking for objective truth deserves neither.

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    “Granted, “Zero Dark Thirty” was an epic piece of literal torture porn”

    “Literal” torture porn?…I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

  17. palmtree says:

    I see Dunkirk going north of 200. Once Oscar season rolls around it will get second wind.

  18. Ray Pride says:

    Chicago’s Navy Pier IMAX is down until September or October. An awards-season reissue of Dunkirk, which Nolan customarily gets, should do well in its first local IMAX-format engagement.

  19. EtGuild2 says:

    In light of the success of “Bad Moms” and “Girls Night,” the straight-to-Redbox market is jumping on the gravy train and one-upping DP by targeting audiences who pine for the literalism of Chinese title translations with FUN MOM DINNER this week.

  20. Christian says:

    You guys don’t want to talk about “Escapes,” so let me ask about another film’s box-office performance that I noticed while trying to track down “Escapes” figures from the weekend:

    Megan Leavey

    Domestic Total as of Aug. 6, 2017: $12,964,933

    Opening Weekend: $3,810,867

    I know that opening-weekend figure wasn’t great, and I didn’t much care for the film. But I recall reading that audience marks were very high, which bode well for the film’s long-term performance. $13 million isn’t a great figure (I don’t see a budget number reported; maybe I’m overlooking it), but a 3.5 multiple seems pretty good, if not great.

  21. Nick Arden says:

    >>>A lot of those Stephen King grosses look better taking inflation into accout–Carrie, The Shining, Stand by Me, Pet Sematary and Misery would all be over $125 million domestic in 2017 dollars

    Poland doesn’t do inflation. He thinks the dollar is worth the same now as in 1977…or 1937 for that matter.

  22. Sideshow Bill says:

    The trailer for MOTHER gave me goosebumps. Bring on the Autumn movies already!

  23. leahnz says:

    bardem looks like jlaw’s dad
    (i thought that’s what he was at first but nooo, just the ushe desperate and creepy ‘young-enough-to-be-my-daughter’ fantasy dudism)

  24. Night Owl says:

    Bardem is 21 years older than Lawrence so he would make far more sense playing her father then her husband. Hopefully that’s a plot point because otherwise I’m going to strain something with the number of times I will be rolling my eyes.

    So Rosemary’s Baby basically? I’m not seeing Oscars, but it could break out at the box office, if it’s not too weird.

  25. Alex says:

    > Bardem is 21 years older than Lawrence so he would make far more sense playing her father then her husband. Hopefully that’s a plot point because otherwise I’m going to strain something with the number of times I will be rolling my eyes.

    Isn’t Lawrence dating Aronofsky? He’s the same age as Bardem. It’s not too unusual. Don’t hurt yourself.

  26. leahnz says:

    probably the weirder the better for aronofsky, as long as the production budget was kept down – more ‘black swan’ than ‘noah’ (i about shit a brick to see the ‘noah’ budg at $125 mil)

    “It’s not too unusual. Don’t hurt yourself.”

    not too unusual my ass, but you keep telling yourself that (how many 27yr old women do you know married to 48 yr old men? i’ve known ‘0’, and i’ve known a shit-ton of people). bardem and Lawrence look ridonkulous together

  27. Night Owl says:

    ““It’s not too unusual. Don’t hurt yourself.””

    Well it looks like I get to start my eye-rolling early this year.

    Yes no doubt Lawrence would be banging a plain looking guy old enough to be her Dad if he was just some average joe accountant. Sure gentlemen, keep telling yourself that. No there are reasons for these age differences, sometimes innocuous, sometimes psychological, sometimes…transactional, but no, not usual. As a plot point it could make huge sense. Otherwise…commence eye-rolling.

  28. leahnz says:

    it’s always good to get your eye-rolling started early, like buying your Christmas pressies before the holiday rush

    looking at real world relationships, aronofsky and weisz were together for quite a while and have a kid(s) and she’s one year younger than he is; cruz is 43 married to bardem 48

  29. hcat says:

    Christian, Looking at the rest of Bleecker Street’s releases they are certainly pleased by what Meagan Leavey did. One of the things that bugs me about the state of the industry is that no one seems to celebrate singles or doubles anymore. I know ancillaries are not what they used to be but there is still a lot of money to be made after theatrical and if I remember the reviews correctly the film also had religious undertones so if you figure that it is downhome trifecta of a Dog/Military/Jesus picture this should do gangbusters on video.

  30. Alex says:

    > not too unusual my ass, but you keep telling yourself that (how many 27yr old women do you know married to 48 yr old men? i’ve known ‘0’, and i’ve known a shit-ton of people). bardem and Lawrence look ridonkulous together

    I know of a few, not really married, but together in a long term relationship. If you have the money, the success and a interesting life, you can get someone 20 years younger, if you want it. Even with simpler people, you’d be suprised how many older men have wifes half their age from eastern europe or asia. You see them often enoug in the streets. A big age gap really is not too unusual.

    And no, I don’t tell myself, that all I need is to be 48 to have a chance to get a woman like Jennifer Lawrence.

  31. jspartisan says:

    Yeah. Mother looks fucking dumb, and that they hid it for a reason. Don’t make movies with your old man boyfriend!

    Outside of that, here’s hoping we don’t get nuked, because of this fucking idiot.

    Also, Disney creating it’s own streaming service, is a LONG TIME FUCKING COMING! Seriously. It’s about fucking time. Sure. Shit may be all sorts of backwards in 2019, but it’s a good god damn idea.

    [ED. NOTE: Here’s the Disney press release.]

  32. EtGuild2 says:

    Don’t Dustin Lance Black and Olympic Swimmer Tom Daley one-up them as a 21-year age separation GAY couple? Or is the problem because they look 10 years apart?

  33. leahnz says:

    i was not referring to eastern europe or asia, clearly. 27yr old women married to 48yr old men in western culture is fairly rare, to say it’s “not unusual” is just being disingenuous (or lying, who knows on the internet) and i know plenty of successful dudes around age 50 and not a single one of them are married to women who could be their daughters. i’m not saying this never happens, i’m saying it’s a male fantasy wildly disproportionately depicted in cinema to fluff up the aging male ego, and it’s creepy

  34. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’m still seeing the movie. I’ll admit the age gap is skeevy a lil bit but it doesn’t really bother me. As a 46 y/o single man I can say I would never date anyone younger than 35 because I just have nothing in common with young women. Doesn’t mean I won’t indulge in the celluloid fantasy of it. Some people are a bit too easily offended. And I say that as a bleeding heart liberal SJW. Just give me a good movie.

  35. Hcat says:

    Wow that Disney news should put a little dent in Netflix stock, their relationship didnt last very long at all. I thought for sure Disney would purchase them instead of going alone since they wouldnt have to build from scratch but with the sky high stock price I guess it wasnt an option. Hopefully my kids grow out of the Liv and Maddie reruns before we have to subscribe to another service in three years.

    But this leads to the next question, who does Netflix poach from HBO? Fox or Universal?

  36. Hcat says:

    Since everyone in their late twenties and early thirties are tied up making spandex movies perhaps they had no choice but to go with the nearly AARP choice. 😉

  37. leahnz says:

    ftr i’m not ‘offended’ in the slightest, just skeeved out, never said it will stop me seeing the movie – as Night Owl said the glaring age gap could be plot-related somehow
    (also please with the ‘some people are too easily offended’, who gets to decide this — funny how white boys who are so accostomed to being pandered to consider themselves neutral referees in these matters when they are anything but, and what’s hilarious is most don’t even realise it)

    ETA JS, shit’s gettin’ real, lots of people tried to sound the warning

  38. Triple Option says:

    Leah’s killing it today!

    A 40-something female friend of mine had recently been complaining about all the guys her age dating women in their 20s. This hasn’t been a lone occurrence. A few other single women in their late 40s/early 50s have bemoaned going out. They’ll maybe have a conversation going with a guy their age but as soon as some young bunny comes along they’ll break away and talk to them. I’ve also heard it from the other side, how some women in their twenties go out and always get hit on by “some 40 year old man.” To which another 20-something female might exclaim, “Eeeeewwwwwww!!!” In defense of men, I have been out with a group and one 20-something female said some older guy tried to hit on her, when I was there to witness all he did was ask her to hand him a menu off the bar, from which he promptly looked over and ordered. Sometimes, sister, a rose is just a rose.

    Anyway, I think there might be some dating of people with large age gaps, but the likelihood of marriage would be on the slim side.

  39. Night Owl says:

    Just to provide some objective support to how odd these age differences are this article provides some US census back up:

    60% of married couples within 2-3 years of each other. Only 1.6% had a 15 year age gap. 20 years? Less than 1%

    Like I said, it’s weird. And very much a silly Hollywood construct.
    Anyway back to box office, go Dunkirk!

  40. Sideshow Bill says:

    Didn’t mean to get on your bad side leah. All I’m trying to say is I don’t care what other people do with their love lives, and I am able to buy the age difference if the movie is good. And while it may be a “fantasy Hollywood construct” Lawrence IS dating Aronofsky and therefore she is as responsible for the relationship as he is. I hear no criticism of her. She’s an adult and can make her own decisions. There ARE young women who prefer older men. It’s not always as simple as an old guy robbing the cradle.

    Nonetheless, leah, nothing but respect for you and your thoughts.

  41. Alex says:

    Apologies for starting a offtopic discussion 🙂

    I won’t see any trailers, because I’m going to see the movie anyway. And maybe their relationship is odd and hurts the movie. But I hope not.

    Basically I don’t care at all. Whatever makes people happy. I’m in nobodies way.

  42. Bulldog68 says:

    There’s also a fair percentage of twenty something girls who think twenty something guys are stupid cock swinging assholes.

  43. palmtree says:

    JLaw says she got with Darren after shooting Mother had ended. So the movie wasn’t influenced by their relationship?

    Also, Darren’s ex Rachel Weisz is 47. She’s now married to Daniel Craig, 49.

  44. YancySkancy says:

    I think this age difference issue became a thing in Hollywood once box office became primarily a male-driven thing. The big male stars would age, but still put butts in seats. The way to break new female stars was to put them opposite these guys, age difference be damned. It also gave young male audiences some eye candy as an added feature. My cynical take anyway.

    FWIW, my girlfriend and I have been together 14 years with a big age difference, and we just think of ourselves as, you know, people.

  45. Pete B says:

    ^ Bogie and Bacall had a 25 year age difference and were Hollywood’s “Golden Couple”.

  46. Ray Pride says:

    Ah, the halcyon days of 74 years ago…

  47. Pete B says:

    Key Largo was just on TCM.

  48. Sideshow Bill says:

    Nice tidbit about Bogie and Bacall. I did not know that.

  49. hcat says:

    There is a great line in “How to Marry a Millionare” where Bacall’s character is wooing a banker who scoffs at the idea because of their age difference and she says “I don’t mind older men, that rumpled old Bogart fellow, I Adore Him.”

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