By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com
24 Weeks To Oscar: Where We Are After TIFF
Only two movies came out of North American premieres at TIFF (which is essentially over, even though it goes on for five more days) with legitimate Best Picture hopes, Molly’s Game and the Venice-premiering Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Five more movies that were not at Telluride (two at Venice) and stirred the waters in a big way at Toronto: The Disaster Artist; I, Tonya; mother!; Roman Israel, Esq. and Victoria & Abdul.
Of these five, only Victoria & Abdul has a legitimate chance of a Best Picture nomination. The others may turn up in other categories, including acting and writing, but it would take an awful lot of A24 magic to make The Disaster Artist anything more than the most beloved inside-baseball (for people under 60) movie of the season.
So what does that mean?
I have a hard time putting either of the big TIFF movies on a list a likely or in without seeing them. So…
IN
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
LIKELY IN
Lady Bird
TWO OF THESE
Spielberg
PTA
Ridley Scott
Eastwood
Blade Runner
GOOD CHANCE
Victoria & Abdul
Big Sick
Molly’s Game
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PUNCHER’S CHANCE
Baby Driver
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
IN THE GAME… AS LONGSHOTS
Battle of the Sexes
Beauty & The Beast
Detroit
First They Killed My Father
The Florida Project
Get Out
Mudbound
Wind River
Wonderstruck
Wonder Woman
Don’t get me wrong. If the “Longshot” list all got nominated, it would be a great year for Oscars. No one would watch the show, but all those films have passionate support, completely deserved.
Five of the six major studios could all be represented (big studio or dependent) with Best Picture nominations, with A24, Amazon, and against the odds, STX… and perhaps Weinstein, Annapurna, Sony Classics and Netflix.
There is every chance this will be one of the calmer award seasons… lots of very good movies and not a lot of hate. But then again, Greta Gerwig and Denzel Washington could be the primary representatives of women and people of color this season. (Can Greta Gerwig actually get nominated for Best Director for her first solo directing gig? Just writing the question is freaking me out.)
I don’t have a ton more to say at this point, so why stretch? I have four key movies to see, aside from the movies that won’t likely be seen at all until November.
Off we go…
It’s Gerwig’s solo directing debut. She co-directed Joe Swanberg’s Nights and Weekends in 2008.
I haven’t seen much this year, but this seems like a more interesting field than usual.
The highest oscar ratings always correlate to blockbusters with best picture nominations. So if Wonder Woman and beauty and the beast were nominated (from the long shots) the oscars would have its highest ratings since the avatar year, not the lowest, 100% wrong to say no one would watch if the longshots were all nominated. If all the top films were nominated, no one will watch, if blockbusters are nominated, people will watch.
I would say :
IN
Dunkirk
Blade Runner
Wonder Woman
LIKELY IN
Lady Bird
Darkest Hour
Get Out
Florida Project
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
IN IF IT GETS A DECENT TITLE CHANGE
The Papers (what an awful re-title effort, profoundly stupid and insulting your audience)
SO HAPPY WE LUCKED INTO SCRIPT AND ACTING NOMINATIONS
Victoria & Abdul
Big Sick
Molly’s Game
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
OH! AN EDITING NOMINATION THAT MEANS WE ALMOST GOT A PICTURE NOMINATION (…NOT!)
Baby Driver
DEFINITELY NOT IN THE GAME (Maybe a single nom somewheres)
Detroit
First They Killed My Father
Mudbound
Wind River
MAKING CRITICS WHINGE ABOUT HOW UNFAIR _____ IS
Wonderstruck
IN:
Wonder Woman
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner
The Post
Eastwood (if out in time)
LIKELYs
Florida Project
Lady Bird
Wind River
Three Billboards
Get Out
Oh my god,I like you a lot Dave but these picks are stunningly bad. I’m excited about Lady Bird but to have it higher than Call Me By Your Name is willful ignorance. You find me a movie this year with better reviews and audience reception. Tap your compass friend, you’re way off course.
It’s likely Gerwig receives a director nomination. I mean she has a lot of support from her colleagues and critics, and A24 are taking LADY BIRD all the way. Other likely nominations including best picture, best actress, best supporting actress and original screenplay.
Sounds like you must not have cared for “Stronger?” I would not underestimate its Oscar potential, particularly if it becomes the bit it seems like it could be (if they can get out the message that it’s nothing like the other Boston Marathon-derived movie).
Beauty & the Beast should have 0% chance of Best Picture nod. I know it made a lot, but come on. I’d eliminate Detroit too.
The highest Oscar telecast ratings correlate more to who’s hosting than to what’s nominated.
Why does no one talk about “Columbus,” the best movie of the year? And something else will emerge from the pile, like “Marshall” (at least for Boseman?)
No one talks about (excellent, agreed) “Columbus” because they haven’t seen it. And because it doesn’t have a chance in hell at any Oscar nominations.