Gurus o’ Gold: Pick The Winners Way Too Early
| Rank | Last Chart | best Picture | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Dunkirk |
1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 100 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
The Shape of Water |
2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 93 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 87 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Darkest Hour |
6 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 57 | ||||
| 5 | t5 |
Call Me By Your Name |
3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 50 | |||||
| 6 | 7 |
Get Out |
8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 46 | ||||
| 7 | 10 |
The Florida Project |
9 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 45 | |||||
| 8 | 9 |
Lady Bird |
4 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 44 | ||||||
| 9 | t5 |
The Post |
6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | ||||||||
| t10 |
Mudbound |
5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 14 | ||||||||||
| t10 | 8 |
The BIg Sick |
10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 14 | |||||||||
|
Phantom Thread |
6 | 10 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Downsizing |
5 | 1 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Victoria & Abdul |
8 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Blade Runner 2049 |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
I, Tonya |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Last Flag Flying |
10 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Frances McDormand |
2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | ||||||
| 2 |
Sally Hawkins |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | ||||||
|
Saoirse Ronan Lady Bird |
1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Gary Oldman Darkest Hour |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 18 | |||||
| 2 |
Denzel Washington Roman J israel, Esq |
2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||
|
Jake Gyllenhaal Stronger |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
|
Timothee Chalamet Call Me By Your Name |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Supporting Actor | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Willem Dafoe The Florida Project |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | ||||||||
| 2 |
Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Mo |
2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | |||||||||
|
Michael Stuhlbard Call Me By Your Name |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Richard Jenkins The Shape of Water |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Supporting Actress | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Laurie Metcalf Lady Bird |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | |||||||
| 2 |
Allison Janney I, Tonya |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | ||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Holly Hunter The BIg Sick |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Animated Feature | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Coco |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | |||||||||||
| 2 |
Loving Vincent |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | ||||||||||
|
The Breadwinner |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Mary & The Witch's Flower |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Cars 3 |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ferdinand |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Frontrunning Documentary | Adams | Ellwood | Howell | Karger | Olsen | Poland | Pond | NathanielR | Stone | Thompson | Wloszczyna | Whipp | Yamato | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Jane |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | ||||||||||
| 2 |
Faces Places |
2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | ||||||||||||
|
City of Ghosts |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Strong Island |
1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Step |
2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Is there some kind of bias against Lady Bird? It’s critical acclaim as measured by Metacritic and RT exceeds nearly every other film this entire year. Why isn’t it in the top five?
WTF, Poland, no CMBYN in your top 10?? Would love to hear your rationalization for this while you have a lovely, but very light, film like “The Big Sick” in your top 10.
It’s #5.
does Karger know something or is his lonely BP pick a hail Mary? We’ll see.
Bias against lady bird? Surely not! Nearly all male prognosticators would never take a female film less seriously!
Bias against our current second golden age of blockbusters? Definitely! Above all we have to maintain and aggressively defend the Weinstein standards of art house apartheid awards season!
Look how far we’ve come! We cannot go backwards to the terrible days of the first golden age of blockbusters when Star Wars, jaws, exorcist, godfather, raiders of the lost ark etc were participating in awards season!
Awards season is about fetishizing obscurity and enforcing conformity to the same bland standards year in and year out, we have to maintain the glorious standards Harvey Weinstein created for us!
Can you imagine how embarrassed a prognosticator would be to predict a blockbuster on their top ten? Embassarment is the worst, better make sure I’m conforming to the safe place everyone else is in, wouldn’t want to have unique opinions, that’s the worst!
Lady Bird is terrific and should those box-office results hold…
Lockedout, has the academy overlooked a Godfather or a Jaws in recent years? If the studios made a blockbuster worthy of consideration (and there seems to be one in the top spot) it would get in, but its not like It should be in the running simply because it made a lot of money.