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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Still Jungle-y Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-01-13 at 11.28.45 AM

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16 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Still Jungle-y Klady”

  1. The Pope says:

    I think The Post will end up doing Hidden Figure numbers ($169m).
    Not much proof to back up that hunch other than (and I know there might not be all that correlation)…
    There are (feint) parallels between the films. Historical. Political. Topical. And about women / a woman.
    Like The Post, Hidden Figures also had a platform release. In its limited weekends, it was averaging about $20-30k per screen. The Post was doing double, triple, quadruple that before it went wide this weekend.
    THR is projecting a $21m weekend. Hidden Figures did $22m when it went wide.
    Now, I’m certain there are more learned people here who can advise me otherwise… but my hunch is The Post is headed for about $170m (which would make it Spielberg’s biggest hit since Lincoln).

  2. movieman says:

    No one has commented on the toll shitty weather in major swaths of the country surely had on yesterday’s tepid box office…and today’s, too, if my snowbound NE, OH town is any indication.
    Have to believe (and hope) that both the weather and b.o. improve during the second half of the weekend.
    I think you may be a tad overly optimistic about “The Post,” Pope.
    I’d be happy if it hits $100-million, and I’m not even the movie’s biggest fan.

  3. iothereturned says:

    I’m just happy, that Jumanji is still a thing, and it’s a thing that makes money.

  4. Geoff says:

    Yeah for some reason I did not think The Post would do as well as it’s doing – guess I just assumed Bridge of Spies-like numbers. It makes sense though – Streep and Hanks is a big-time pairing.

    And MAN is Neon just taking its sweet-ass time platforming I Tonya – they must really be counting on Oscar nods to break it out. Just seems like Robbie has been doing press for it what seems like two months already….

    Saw it earlier this week – very good, though certainly more sad than funny given how it’s been promoted. Still a very entertaining movie and the first time that Sebastian Stan has impressed me – he really gave Jeff Gilooly a lot more depth than I was expecting.

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    The thing that work against The Post is that it’s not exactly lighting up the Awards circuit, the way Hidden Figures and Lincoln did. Which is kind of surprising given the pedigree. I think $100m is definitely in the cards, but to reach $175m, it may need some love from Oscar.

    I’m actually somehow hoping The Shape of Water gets a boost to be more mainstream.

  6. Christian says:

    Movieman: With NFL playoff football on in prime time tonight, I think movie attendance might be down, not up, even with the lower trend in NFL ratings this year.

  7. Hcat says:

    Surprised that Paddington is so low, I thought most people found the original delightfuly silly and sweet. Families will show up for the rest of the weekend but I thought it would expand on the first one. Especially now that it had a real studio behind it

  8. movieman says:

    Christian- The weather remains a negative factor in parts of the country, including mine. Not expecting that most folks will have shoveled out until tomorrow afternoon. It just keeps coming down in blankets.
    Factor in the playoff games and it’s understandable why the first half of the weekend would be…soft.
    Anticipating a major turnaround–both w/ the weather and the national b.o.–on Sunday stretching into Monday.

  9. Hcat says:

    I’m wondering what the rest of you think a BO win for I, Tonya would be. Wouldn’t they be over the moon with anything over twenty? Do you think they would be happy with 15?

  10. Michael Bergeron says:

    AS long as the conversation veers into B+ territory what with 3B and Dunkirk, and LB and I, Tonya …. what about Atomic Blonde, not only one of the coolest films of the year but the film with the single most awesome one-take shot of the year

  11. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Nah. Atomic Blonde was fine as a technical exercise and worth a watch, but it collapses like a deck of cards under much scrutiny. And,again with no knowledge of its production process, it just looks as tinkered-with, reshot and rethought as Justice League did, especially with its final twist. I’ll talk around this for those who haven’t seen it, but given what’s revealed about the relationship of two characters in the final scene, why do those same characters keep up a pretense when they talk to each other with no one else present earlier in the movie?

    There’s a nice duel developing between Jumanji and Guardians 2. Box office queen Karen Gillan, competing with herself.

  12. Hcat says:

    Wouldn’t the pretense of someone’s always watching explain how people interact one on one in Blonde? I remember a similar plot device in Oceans 12 that I didn’t think worked nearly as well

  13. movieman says:

    The all-ages-friendly movie whose b.o. trajectory “Welcome to the Jungle” most closely parallels is…the original “Home Alone,” another holiday release that kept playing and playing for months.

    Only real difference is that “HA1” opened pre-Thanksgiving rather than pre-Xmas.
    I remember being shocked to discover that a President’s Day matinee was actually sold out–and that it was still ensconced in the multiplex’s largest (500-seat) auditorium.

  14. YancySkancy says:

    The convoluted plot of Atomic Blonde is almost impossible to care about. The brutal action wasn’t as well executed as in John Wick. I assume word of mouth was pretty bad.

  15. Bulldog68 says:

    I think AB lost me toward the end, but that fight scene in the hotel and the stairway was the most brutal, visceral, fight scene of 2017 with the caveat being that I haven’t seen John Wick 2, but it definitely rivals anything I saw in John Wick 1.

  16. Stella's Boy says:

    I second that Bulldog. AB is OK. The cast is good, the soundtrack is awesome, and it’s moderately engaging. But the story is about as routine and predictable as it gets. However, that fight scene is just spectacular. It’s so well-staged and exciting. At that point I really perked up in my seat. And Theron is badass.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon